The BCS Stats dropped late last week.

I will get this post updated by this evening with the data and my viewpoints! I won't let you down ElephantRider!

Bryan / College Station Area Statistics:


My Take:

• "Sell Wars: The Sellers Strike Back!" - Sellers seem to be rather entrenched on their price and Buyer's just want a good deal. I've had two reasonable cash offers get turned down this month. One was turned down in hopes of better offers eventually coming (that house is still on the market 21+ days later) and the other chose another offer for less but could close quicker.
• Market sentiment feels like it's starting to turn a touch now that there is some post election clarity. But don't get too excited because the current treasury market is making sure to temper demans as rates keep hovering around that 7% handle. Which I know is normal for some of you older Ag's but it is still a bit tough to accept given we've had ~15ish years of rates lower than that. Make sure you check out this thread to get a pulse on current interest rates (https://texags.com/forums/59/topics/3479053)

• The hopes of a Santa Clause Rally seem to have already set sail with most of my clients throwing in the 2024 towel and setting their focus on 2025 with planning for moves after New Years. Even New Construction seems to be not pushing hard for the typical year end madness - maybe they're all focusing on the family for the holidays?
• There is one strong sector in the market and that is AirBNB/Short Term Rentals. I chalk this up to the Aggies having a rather strong season under Year 1 of Mike Elko. But Proven AirBNB's with a solid operating statements are actually seeing some demand. I've had some clients looking solely for STR's. One house near one of my rentals that is close-ish to Campus. That house ended up recently sold for just under asking price. The kicker is that the asking price was easily over $100K compared to other houses nearby - including the one next door that sat on market for 6 months and eventually taken down without a buyer.

The Facts:

• Average Days on Market for the entire Brazos/Surrounding Counties sits at 115 days. It's a little bit better in B/CS with an average of 101-104 days. But I suspect that number will likely increase over the holidays until buyers "thaw out".
• Active listings are down slightly 1,239 in August to 1,215 in September.
• New Construction Home Sales are at their lowest point for the entire year - but it's just slightly lower vs low of the year in January this year. Those numbers are 43 new construction for $15.8M in November compared to 46 new constructions for $16.1M in volume. Keep on eye on November and December numbers through the end of the year.

Bryan/College Station MSA:





Brazos County:


Bryan:



College Station:


Residential Stats Thru Oct:

I always look forward to this post, especially the commentary from those of you "in the know".
Thanks!

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos

October 2024 Central Texas Housing Report

Quote:

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"News headlines that characterize the Central Texas housing market as 'ground zero' are an extreme over-exaggeration. It's important to remember where we've come from. Austin led the state and nation in record-breaking home price growth and sales activity during the pandemic. For three years, near-zero housing inventory, numerous offers above list price and a rapid-paced market raised home prices and left little negotiating power for buyers. During this record-setting growth, ABoR and Unlock MLS consistently emphasized the unsustainability of the rapid growth, and now, our market is working to balance those extremes."

Redding added: "Central Texas remains a desirable and sought-after location for families and businesses alike, with real estate remaining as the most powerful long-term investment and the greatest driver of generational wealth. This is why it's invaluable to have a trusted REALTOR in your corner to explain what's really happening in the market and how you can make the most of those conditions."

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My Take:

• I'll go along with Luke's Star Wars Analogy..."Sell Wars: Revenge of the Buyer!" - After high prices being the norm in Austin, my recent buyer clients came back with a vengeance! I recently closed on a deal where their house appraised for 11% over asking price. The house was on the market for 77 days and had recently been sold a month before it went on the market. I believe this was a case where the investor bit off more than he could chew and just couldn't make the numbers work. My clients plan on making it their homestead property and making some upgrades. They really came out ahead!
• Median sales prices continue to trend downward which is a slight relief to home buyers. I only wish interest rates would follow suit. Prices decreased by 3.2 % YOY to $435,000 and closed sales dropped 1.5% YOY to 2,248.
• Active listings continue are up by 9.3% YOY to 11,599. Pending sales increased by 13% YOY to 2,344.
• Months of inventory sits at 5.1 for the Greater Austin area which is an decrease of 0.8 months from last month. Overall, we are up 0.5 months YOY.
• Sellers are getting 92.7% of their asking price which is a decrease of 0.1% from last month.
• I'm currently also helping some clients with a lot sale in Spring Branch, TX. Click on the link to know more about it.

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos


Bastrop County


Caldwell County


City of Austin


Hays County


Travis County


Williamson County


Austin Rental Data

Tex117 said:

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Quote:

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• Market sentiment feels like it's starting to turn a touch now that there is some post election clarity. But don't get too excited because the current treasury market is making sure to temper demans as rates keep hovering around that 7% handle. Which I know is normal for some of you older Ag's but it is still a bit tough to accept given we've had ~15ish years of rates lower than that. Make sure you check out this thread to get a pulse on current interest rates (https://texags.com/forums/59/topics/3479053)

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And Im sure Sellers understand that the 15ish years of below average interests pushed up the value of their property and adequately pricing it to account for now a higher rate environment.

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No, I don't think the majority of sellers understand that. People are generally clueless that asset prices are a product of historic liquidity funneled into the system between 2008 and 2020. This is what central banks do and it's really their only mandate, despite what they say on the surface. They are the lender of ONLY resort and will do anything to stimulate when the general populace starts losing trust. It's extremely inflationary for assets and deflationary for currency. Eventually, there's nothing they can do to stop the loss of faith in them to backstop the economy.

Most sellers genuinely think home prices are because of interest rates. In reality, low interest rates was merely a stimulation tool while the massive amounts of liquidity is the real cause of high prices. Most sellers can't imagine a scenario where liquidity decreases, and despite fundamentals of the home market, could lead to lower prices.

You're the man, Luke!

HOUSTON

"Despite a recent uptick in mortgage rates, the Houston housing market maintained its momentum in October. Both home sales and inventory increased, signaling a healthy and active market as the final quarter of 2024 began." - HAR President



The Facts

• If you read my post last month, price increases this month are probably not a shock. Average and Median prices jumped 5.2% and 2.7%, respectively, in October. That is very much atypical for an October (when we almost see prices and sales numbers decline). Again, for average prices to be rising faster than median prices, this means that higher priced homes are doing better than their lower priced counterparts. I take this as a leading indicator as to where decision makers believe the market is going and feel comfortable buying a home. This is a good sign for the market.
• Total property sales are up over 10% YOY, single family sales are up almost 13% YOY, single family pending home sales are up 23% YOY (yes, TWENTY THREE PERCENT HIGHER and are actually higher in October than they were in September), and inventory held flat month over month at 4.4 months. Again, these stats are highly unusual for an October.
• The 10 year treasury yield is currently sitting at 4.396% as I type this, up a little over 25 bps MOM.
• The market, evidenced by the CME FedWatch Tool linked below, is predicting roughly 60% odds of one more 25 bps rate cut in 2024 (and a 40% chance of no cut by December). From there, it's anyone's guess where rates go. As Luke mentioned, the election definitely marked a shift in the market and likely changed the Fed's strategy moving forward.

My Take

• This last month was the busiest October for me that I can remember. I don't even remember 2020 being this wild.
• Since our last post, I closed deals in the Heights and Spring Branch, put homes under contract in Oak Forest and Spring Branch, put my off market listing of 5 acres at the corner of Morton Rd and Katy Hockley Rd in Katy, and listed the Airbnb portfolio in Galveston and a few more homes. It's been a busy month.
• It's hard to relate these instances in real time without hurting our clients, but I love it when my buyers get an appraisal back above contract price, and when my sellers get a contract signed significantly above what other agents told them they could achieve.
• I believe the Houston market has hit bottom, especially if interest rates continue their path downward. I'm not calling for 2020/2021 levels of insanity, but I do think it's upside from here unless something major happens to shock the market.
• About two weeks ago I hired a summer intern to come work with me in Houston this next summer. He's a very bright Aggie Junior Finance major who we will introduce formally a little closer to summertime.
• BTOH tu.

Sources
https://www.har.com/content/department/newsroom?pid=2128
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html