The BCS Stats dropped late last week.

I will get this post updated by this evening with the data and my viewpoints! I won't let you down ElephantRider!

Bryan / College Station Area Statistics:


My Take:

• "Sell Wars: The Sellers Strike Back!" - Sellers seem to be rather entrenched on their price and Buyer's just want a good deal. I've had two reasonable cash offers get turned down this month. One was turned down in hopes of better offers eventually coming (that house is still on the market 21+ days later) and the other chose another offer for less but could close quicker.
• Market sentiment feels like it's starting to turn a touch now that there is some post election clarity. But don't get too excited because the current treasury market is making sure to temper demans as rates keep hovering around that 7% handle. Which I know is normal for some of you older Ag's but it is still a bit tough to accept given we've had ~15ish years of rates lower than that. Make sure you check out this thread to get a pulse on current interest rates (https://texags.com/forums/59/topics/3479053)

• The hopes of a Santa Clause Rally seem to have already set sail with most of my clients throwing in the 2024 towel and setting their focus on 2025 with planning for moves after New Years. Even New Construction seems to be not pushing hard for the typical year end madness - maybe they're all focusing on the family for the holidays?
• There is one strong sector in the market and that is AirBNB/Short Term Rentals. I chalk this up to the Aggies having a rather strong season under Year 1 of Mike Elko. But Proven AirBNB's with a solid operating statements are actually seeing some demand. I've had some clients looking solely for STR's. One house near one of my rentals that is close-ish to Campus. That house ended up recently sold for just under asking price. The kicker is that the asking price was easily over $100K compared to other houses nearby - including the one next door that sat on market for 6 months and eventually taken down without a buyer.

The Facts:

• Average Days on Market for the entire Brazos/Surrounding Counties sits at 115 days. It's a little bit better in B/CS with an average of 101-104 days. But I suspect that number will likely increase over the holidays until buyers "thaw out".
• Active listings are down slightly 1,239 in August to 1,215 in September.
• New Construction Home Sales are at their lowest point for the entire year - but it's just slightly lower vs low of the year in January this year. Those numbers are 43 new construction for $15.8M in November compared to 46 new constructions for $16.1M in volume. Keep on eye on November and December numbers through the end of the year.

Bryan/College Station MSA:





Brazos County:


Bryan:



College Station:


Residential Stats Thru Oct:

I always look forward to this post, especially the commentary from those of you "in the know".
Thanks!

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos

October 2024 Central Texas Housing Report

Quote:

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"News headlines that characterize the Central Texas housing market as 'ground zero' are an extreme over-exaggeration. It's important to remember where we've come from. Austin led the state and nation in record-breaking home price growth and sales activity during the pandemic. For three years, near-zero housing inventory, numerous offers above list price and a rapid-paced market raised home prices and left little negotiating power for buyers. During this record-setting growth, ABoR and Unlock MLS consistently emphasized the unsustainability of the rapid growth, and now, our market is working to balance those extremes."

Redding added: "Central Texas remains a desirable and sought-after location for families and businesses alike, with real estate remaining as the most powerful long-term investment and the greatest driver of generational wealth. This is why it's invaluable to have a trusted REALTOR in your corner to explain what's really happening in the market and how you can make the most of those conditions."

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My Take:

• I'll go along with Luke's Star Wars Analogy..."Sell Wars: Revenge of the Buyer!" - After high prices being the norm in Austin, my recent buyer clients came back with a vengeance! I recently closed on a deal where their house appraised for 11% over asking price. The house was on the market for 77 days and had recently been sold a month before it went on the market. I believe this was a case where the investor bit off more than he could chew and just couldn't make the numbers work. My clients plan on making it their homestead property and making some upgrades. They really came out ahead!
• Median sales prices continue to trend downward which is a slight relief to home buyers. I only wish interest rates would follow suit. Prices decreased by 3.2 % YOY to $435,000 and closed sales dropped 1.5% YOY to 2,248.
• Active listings continue are up by 9.3% YOY to 11,599. Pending sales increased by 13% YOY to 2,344.
• Months of inventory sits at 5.1 for the Greater Austin area which is an decrease of 0.8 months from last month. Overall, we are up 0.5 months YOY.
• Sellers are getting 92.7% of their asking price which is a decrease of 0.1% from last month.
• I'm currently also helping some clients with a lot sale in Spring Branch, TX. Click on the link to know more about it.

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos


Bastrop County


Caldwell County


City of Austin


Hays County


Travis County


Williamson County


Austin Rental Data

Quote:

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• Market sentiment feels like it's starting to turn a touch now that there is some post election clarity. But don't get too excited because the current treasury market is making sure to temper demans as rates keep hovering around that 7% handle. Which I know is normal for some of you older Ag's but it is still a bit tough to accept given we've had ~15ish years of rates lower than that. Make sure you check out this thread to get a pulse on current interest rates (https://texags.com/forums/59/topics/3479053)

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And Im sure Sellers understand that the 15ish years of below average interests pushed up the value of their property and adequately pricing it to account for now a higher rate environment.

Tex117 said:

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Quote:

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• Market sentiment feels like it's starting to turn a touch now that there is some post election clarity. But don't get too excited because the current treasury market is making sure to temper demans as rates keep hovering around that 7% handle. Which I know is normal for some of you older Ag's but it is still a bit tough to accept given we've had ~15ish years of rates lower than that. Make sure you check out this thread to get a pulse on current interest rates (https://texags.com/forums/59/topics/3479053)

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And Im sure Sellers understand that the 15ish years of below average interests pushed up the value of their property and adequately pricing it to account for now a higher rate environment.

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No, I don't think the majority of sellers understand that. People are generally clueless that asset prices are a product of historic liquidity funneled into the system between 2008 and 2020. This is what central banks do and it's really their only mandate, despite what they say on the surface. They are the lender of ONLY resort and will do anything to stimulate when the general populace starts losing trust. It's extremely inflationary for assets and deflationary for currency. Eventually, there's nothing they can do to stop the loss of faith in them to backstop the economy.

Most sellers genuinely think home prices are because of interest rates. In reality, low interest rates was merely a stimulation tool while the massive amounts of liquidity is the real cause of high prices. Most sellers can't imagine a scenario where liquidity decreases, and despite fundamentals of the home market, could lead to lower prices.

You're the man, Luke!

I'm going to start periodically sharing a piece of advice or a product here that I believe the community might find helpful for home ownership. Some of these I might be paid a referral commission for, but I will never share a product that I don't personally own or have used personally.

In preparation for winter months, I want to share a cool product that was recommended to me by a fellow landlord and client last year. It threads directly onto your outdoor faucets and automatically begins dripping once temperature drops below 37F to prevent pipe freezing. I was impressed so I'm putting them on all my houses this year. You can buy it on Amazon here:

https://amzn.to/3Ze3vaP