Houses in my hood have gone from fifty cars at an open house, sold sign in two days to no cars and just sitting there for a couple of weeks.

I realize the later is more normal but holy hell what a change a month has made.

I think one thing we all need to realize - the sitting on the market for 2 days with thousands lined up to offer is not normal. We couldn't continue down that path.

Ain't nothing wrong with the RE market taking a little breather. Do I think rising rates are going to put pressure on prices? Absolutely but I'm not seeing tons of price drops, maybe after 20 or so days but that means the house was probably priced too high to begin with it.

I'll put it this way - regardless of whether the top is in or not - I don't think we will see a mass of foreclosures or anything like 2008 because the loans on the houses are so much sounder.

My houses are all still selling cash

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It will also want home construction to slow. Elevated home construction, which this year hit its highest level since 2006, has put upward pressure on everything from lumber to steel to kitchen tables.

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Not sure I'm on board with this statement. The elevated prices on everything is much more related to supply chain issues than new home construction. A reduction in new construction just makes supply tighter, which is part of the issue driving house prices.

Anyone who didnt see a correction coming with (in my area) 60% annual price appreciation plus 150-200bps increase in mortgage rates (all with no wage growth).... I cant help you.

Bitter Old Man said:

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Anyone who didnt see a correction coming with (in my area) 60% annual price appreciation plus 150-200bps increase in mortgage rates (all with no wage growth).... I cant help you.

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My only fans is at $50,000 a month. How's that for wage growth?

Baller! Do you drop that all on one gal or spread it around to several?

jopatura said:

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Red Pear Felipe said:

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What city is this in?

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I have a friend trying to sell her house in Pflugerville, Travis County. It's been on the market 28 days, dropped $50k in price, and they've gotten no offers. They have to sell since they are moving out of state and are getting very worried they'll be carrying two houses for an extended period of time.

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Houses in high priced areas are going to be hit the hardest. Only so many people can by $1 mil or whatever crazy price your friends have out there.

We just had a tiny 1300 sq ft house list for $350, sold $420 cash in 36 hours.

Right level of houses are still flying, the silly prices ones will struggle and those people who thought they had insane equity will just have really good.

I think people who are betting that there will be some major correction in Texas will be disappointed. There has been, in the words of our crypto friends, a bit of a blow off top over the last four or five months. But the price increases that were realized through 2021 are here to stay IMHO.

For example, I have a rental I bought in 2016 for $118,000. I priced it in December at about $235,000. The exact same home sold one street over last month for $270,000. That $270,000 was the blow off top and the $235,000 price will stick.

jopatura said:

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Red Pear Felipe said:

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What city is this in?

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I have a friend trying to sell her house in Pflugerville, Travis County. It's been on the market 28 days, dropped $50k in price, and they've gotten no offers. They have to sell since they are moving out of state and are getting very worried they'll be carrying two houses for an extended period of time.

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I'll take over their mortgage. Get me in touch

The problem with that house is that it's in Pflugerville.

I'd like to see what the next ABOR housing report shows for May. I had a client lose out on a house in San Marcos that was listed for $399K and sold for $550K. I don't think there will be a housing crash per se but I believe the days of 25% yearly home appreciations will come to an end. I believe the market will correct itself to having 8-10% yearly appreciations.

Red Pear Felipe said:

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I'd like see what the next ABOR housing report shows for May. I had a client lose out on a house in San Marcos that was listed for $399K and sold for $550K. I don't think there will be a housing crash per se but I believe the days of 25% yearly home appreciations will come to an end. I believe the market will correct itself to having 8-10% yearly appreciations.

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so you expect prices to roughly double every 7 years in your market? that doesn't sound sustainable.

tech is taking it in the shorts right now and Austin is largely predicated on that industry, Couple that with the recent run-up in the Hill Country and interest rate pressures and I wouldn't be shocked to see prices drop in your market.

Goody said:

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jopatura said:

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Highland Park.

Not a million dollar house either. Two months ago they would have gotten their asking price easy.

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starting point in hp is well over a million...tear downs included

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Highland Park Pflugerville is not Highland Park Dallas area.

You drop the price to the current market and it moves

"Prices going down" still means way higher price than a year ago. Even a 10% drop in price today is still 20% year over year gain in some of the hit markets. Prices in Florida are up 30% in a year!!!