Houston

https://www.har.com/content/newsroom?pid=1778

Quote:

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"In my 20 years in real estate, I have never seen such dramatic forces sweeping across the Houston housing market as we have experienced since the coronavirus pandemic began," said HAR Chairman Richard Miranda with Keller Williams Platinum. "The market is humming along at a record pace, fueled by low mortgage rates despite dwindling inventory and rising prices. However, without a healthy boost in new listings in the weeks and months ahead, the current pace of sales cannot be sustained."

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Dallas - Fort Worth

https://www.mymetrotex.com/market-reports/

Metroplex


Tarrant County


Dallas County

Bryan - College Station

https://www.bcsrealtor.com/index.php?src=gendocs&ref=AreaHousingStatistics&category=forConsumers

BCS


College Station


Bryan

Greater Tyler

https://dds.terradatum.com/public/market-area-trends/greater-tyler-association-of-realtors/MTEvMjE=/?search=normal&areaType=ALL&areaValueList=&timePeriod=mth&timePeriodValue=37&propertyClassList=ALL&search_enable_flag=MQ==

Average Price PSF is up 22.9% YoY


Median Sales Price is up 12.6% YoY

HYC_AG said:

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This market is crazy. I'm closing (buying) on Friday and have no idea if ten years from now I'm going to look at the decision to go from renting to buying during this market as a smart or completely idiotic choice. Here goes nothing...

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REALLY crazy. I bought my first house in College Station in 2008 at the start of the Great Recession, and its worth double what I paid for it today. If you hold 10 years, you won't regret holding, even if you buy at the absolute worst time like I did.

BTW, I think most parts of Texas see another 10-20% price appreciation in the next year. I've been wrong before though, so only time will tell.

Red Pear Realty said:

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HYC_AG said:

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This market is crazy. I'm closing (buying) on Friday and have no idea if ten years from now I'm going to look at the decision to go from renting to buying during this market as a smart or completely idiotic choice. Here goes nothing...

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REALLY crazy. I bought my first house in College Station in 2008 at the start of the Great Recession, and its worth double what I paid for it today. If you hold 10 years, you won't regret holding, even if you buy at the absolute worst time like I did.

BTW, I think most parts of Texas see another 10-20% price appreciation in the next year. I've been wrong before though, so only time will tell.

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Thanks for the perspective. I agree with the 10 year holding period in theory... it's always nerve racking to test a theory like that though! Based on comps we got a good deal, but people were saying that in 08 too!

Yeah. We are closing this week. The comps were crazy. Our appraisal even came back well over what we paid due to the recent sales. And I was nervous it wouldn't even appraise for what we offered. Lol

How are some of the smaller market areas like Killeen/Belton, Longview/Tyler, Lake Jackson/Freeport doing? Is the whole state seeing this upward pressure on price?

HYC_AG said:

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This market is crazy. I'm closing (buying) on Friday and have no idea if ten years from now I'm going to look at the decision to go from renting to buying during this market as a smart or completely idiotic choice. Here goes nothing...

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We bought in January (2.5% :-) and leased back to the seller until May 24. With lower taxes in an unincorporated Magnolia / Egypt area, we picked up more yard (2+ acres), a 1200 sq foot workshop, and a smaller but better designed house and saved $800 a month going forward on rent vs. PITI. I don't think you'll regret your move if you can stay a while.

Back of the napkin math, that's 4 $1,000,000+ houses closed in CS and 3 in Bryan in April 2021.

bloom said:

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How are some of the smaller market areas like Killeen/Belton, Longview/Tyler, Lake Jackson/Freeport doing? Is the whole state seeing this upward pressure on price?

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The Belton & Temple area are crazy like everywhere else. Houses are being listed and sold within days. Many are being bought with cash & over asking price.

bloom said:

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How are some of the smaller market areas like Killeen/Belton, Longview/Tyler, Lake Jackson/Freeport doing? Is the whole state seeing this upward pressure on price?

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Tyler info above. Those are pretty crazy bumps IMO

bloom said:

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How are some of the smaller market areas like Killeen/Belton, Longview/Tyler, Lake Jackson/Freeport doing? Is the whole state seeing this upward pressure on price?

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Yes

I'd think these numbers are somewhat irrelevant given COVID timeline, similar to current GDP or inflation numbers. How was April 2020, compared to April 2019?

1261 Active single family residential listings in San Antonio searching from outside Loop 1604 to the center of the city. (Excluding Pending and Options). This includes many proposed new construction offerings.

I have no idea.. but I'm not curious about just 1 of the numbers. Having all of these numbers together, and then a relative comparison is useful. For instance, it would show if the 1.3 months inventory and increased prices are because differences in active listings, differences in transactions, etc.

I wasn't trying to argue, I have no idea what these numbers typically look like.. I just would be interested to see a comparison that I think would provide better insight. Prices are definitely up, guess I'm curious how much of that is reduced sellers vs more buyers.

Here for the SA stats

cjsag94 said:

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I have no idea.. but I'm not curious about just 1 of the numbers. Having all of these numbers together, and then a relative comparison is useful. For instance, it would show if the 1.3 months inventory and increased prices are because differences in active listings, differences in transactions, etc.

I wasn't trying to argue, I have no idea what these numbers typically look like.. I just would be interested to see a comparison that I think would provide better insight. Prices are definitely up, guess I'm curious how much of that is reduced sellers vs more buyers.

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Prices didn't exactly drop during Covid, but transaction volume did.

The main driver right now is absolutely reduced sellers. Less homes on the market than what is demanded means more people fighting over existing inventory, which drives up prices. Add to it the still very low cost of debt, institutional money creeping in, and the massive appreciation in the cost to build which is driving more people to resales, and you have this current market.

The Census reported Texas as third third fastest growing state in 2020 at a 15.91% population increase in just one year. That would directly contradict the comment that we are not experiencing an increase in buyers. Additionally, we have used every possible financial instrument to make more people appear like qualified buyers. Historically low interest rates, 0 to 3% down payment loan products, reduced credit requirements and Dodd-Frank, provided access to the rental pool by making the purchase option cheaper than the initial rental costs and thus, we have an even deeper pool of buyers.

Buyers under these circumstances even with inflation type appreciation cannot cover the cost to sell and see a return large enough to sell and repurchase, so they have to stay put. Smart money knows selling on the high end of the market means giving that return right back when you purchase, so many are waiting until the market softens where they will likely still make a reasonable return yet realize a greater gain when they repurchase.

https://www.ginniemae.gov/data_and_reports/reporting/Documents/global_market_analysis_jan21.pdf

There is a ton of information in the link above, so there will not be a synopsis. I provided it as a reference for a question that has been bothering me as of late. Having worked through the past two recessions and witnessing the fundamental change in mortgage lending, I have concerns about our government acting as the primary mortgagee for the majority of residential mortgages created since the Obama administration. Especially, when you consider the terms and conditions of the loans. The "Short Sale" was a new instrument utilized during the last recession and was difficult for me to understand, however, it worked to a degree albeit very slowly and with the help of massive federal intervention. In the current situation, what options will be made available when the market turns downward again? FHA and VA together combine for less than 4% equity positions with a sub 4% rate of return over 30 years, and we can argue about values being falsely inflated which adds another level to the bad investment side. Could the federal government become the proud owner of a largest percentage of single family residences throughout the United States? I understand this sounds conspiratorial, yet that is simply how it appears. I have only two personal experiences to draw from, and neither had the same variables to consider.

ag0207 said:

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The Belton & Temple area are crazy like everywhere else. Houses are being listed and sold within days. Many are being bought with cash & over asking price.

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I have a family member heavily involved in that market. He's never seen anything like it. Land, duplexes, single family, everything.

I don't see how those B/CS days on market numbers can be accurate. Practically everything I see listed has in the private remarks that offers are to be submitted about a day or two after the listing has gone live and then they all go under contract and that's at price levels ranging from 125K-650K. It's been a major beating.

Months inventory includes the actively listed duds also. And those will definitely sit there with zero buyers interested. So if equilibrium is 6 months inventory, and current inventory is at 1.5 months, there are 4 buyers for every house, that means there are really like 10-12 buyers for every "good" house. It's crazy out there.

If the median price of a house in B/CS is in the low to mid 200s now, does anyone have a guess what it was in the very late '80s/1990? I probably don't want to know as I/we (my parents and I) didn't buy a house then while I was at A&M to live in, and then rent after I graduated.

I'm guessing a MAX of 100K. So an increase of 2.5x in 30 years. Probably a little more for a smaller, cheaper place. So had we bought a 69K-ish house, we (or I) would have received rental income the last 2 decades free and clear (minus upgrades and other expenses) and have a property worth no less than roughly 190K.

Not enough to retire on, but given cash I had at the time and my parent's mortgage ability, as well as the rent I paid for an apartment at the time, it was a no-brainer that we missed out on.

Oh, well. Easy come, easy go.

There was a fairly decent sized recession in Texas starting around 1986/1987.

This goes back to 1990:

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/housing-activity/#!/activity/MSA/College_Station-Bryan

Seems Tyler has gone even crazier in the last month or two. Houses that would have been $180k in February are being listed for $200k now (1) and 1/1 800 sqft homes are going for $150k (2)

The bulk of the market is in the 200-300k range, but I liked the 150-200k range for rental properties which is probably no more

1 - https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/700-S-Bois-D-Arc-Ave_Tyler_TX_75701_M70420-00341

$144/sqft now. Probably $115/sqft 2 years ago and $125 earlier this year.

Update: under contract, still listed at $200k, after 4 days on the market

2 - https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/302-E-Callahan-St_Tyler_TX_75701_M80203-01800
$176/sqft... can't even imageine

Has Austin's still not been posted?

Nope. March data was posted 4/15 so April should be posted soon.

Is any of this due to interstate movement? Ie, Californians? Or does most of it relate to home upgrades post covid, which were driven by cheap interest rates?

BCG Disciple said:

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Is any of this due to interstate movement? Ie, Californians? Or does most of it relate to home upgrades post covid, which were driven by cheap interest rates?

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Yes, absolutely. 1031 Exchanges have had a substantial impact. We see a lot of international cash as well.