The first sentence - Not sure I got the gist of what you wrote.SteveBott said:
Your mistake is tying short term, overnight to week, rate controls by the Fed to longs, 10 years. Raising shorts often times lower the longs by addressing inflation concerns in the longs.
I've been following 10 years daily for fifteen years. Longs go down much more often then up when the Fed increases its short term rates.
The second sentence - the FOMC has had a 2% inflation goal for the last 15 years. Did you know they never hit their goal during that time; however, the FOMC may be successful this 2018.
Second Paragraph-
I think you are stating you follow the 10 Year Treasury over 15 years, right? Last 15 years(actually started '08) has been ZIRP. I'd exit that subset if I were you, IMHO.
A steepening yield curve has always been the "want". If the curve inverts as you note in the last sentence, in simple terms there's a credit problem in the front end of the curve.