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Mortgage rates are up!

17,537 Views | 102 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Mister Mystery Guest
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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SteveBott said:

Your mistake is tying short term, overnight to week, rate controls by the Fed to longs, 10 years. Raising shorts often times lower the longs by addressing inflation concerns in the longs.

I've been following 10 years daily for fifteen years. Longs go down much more often then up when the Fed increases its short term rates.
The first sentence - Not sure I got the gist of what you wrote.

The second sentence - the FOMC has had a 2% inflation goal for the last 15 years. Did you know they never hit their goal during that time; however, the FOMC may be successful this 2018.

Second Paragraph-

I think you are stating you follow the 10 Year Treasury over 15 years, right? Last 15 years(actually started '08) has been ZIRP. I'd exit that subset if I were you, IMHO.

A steepening yield curve has always been the "want". If the curve inverts as you note in the last sentence, in simple terms there's a credit problem in the front end of the curve.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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jja79 said:

I also fail to see the correlation between the Fed Funds rate and mortgage rates. Fed funds is a very controlled market, bank to bank.

10 year is at 2.93% right now and I think that's nearing a pressure point for rates again.
More transitive,...overnight rate influences the 10 Year Treas and....the 10 year Treas influences the 30 Year Fixed (mortgage rates in general).

FOMC will raise rates again in March (that's my bet, how about you?) 10 Year Treasury at 2.93% will be higher moving forward. The only red flag would be a significant Inflation Rate reported on March 9th that would signal economic trouble and the FOMC would tap the brakes on rate hikes. Neel Kashkari/FOMC noted today policy would not be shifted on how the stock market reacts (paraphrase). Rate normalization is in full go mode.
jja79
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AG
I've never heard a secondary market person mention Fed Funds when discussing rate movement. Always hear them discuss 10 year.

I agree that rates are normalizing, but to many young Americans it's a normal they don't remember.

When I first got into this business 39 years ago rates at current levels were inconceivable.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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jja79 said:

I've never heard a secondary market person mention Fed Funds when discussing rate movement. Always hear them discuss 10 year.

I agree that rates are normalizing, but to many young Americans it's a normal they don't remember.

When I first got into this business 39 years ago rates at current levels were inconceivable.
The young Americans will experience a new horizon.

I can relate to your last sentence....my start and using a small book "The Loan Calculator" Copyright 1979 - (and I am sure you know what I am referencing) starts at 9%. Agree, I would never dreamed we would see rates like we have seen for the last 10 years and I loaded up with "cheap" long term debt.
Diggity
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AG


There's a ton of similar charts
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Thanks for the chart.

I traded technical and I've traded fundamental. Historic charts can explain why something happened yesterday. Akin to driving your car looking in the rearview mirror.

To figure out what's happening tomorrow, the odds of being accurate are more favorable when using forward looking data, estimates and projections.

Takes 2 opinions to make a horse race.

I placed my bet on rates going higher and my horse is looking good.
SteveBott
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AG
We dont disagree that rates are being pushed up just dont agree the Fed is controlling long rates.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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SteveBott said:

We dont disagree that rates are being pushed up just dont agree the Fed is controlling long rates.
I don't ever recall saying/writing the "Fed controlling long rates". So, there's nothing to "don't agree" with.

I can guarantee you this, the FOMC has a well developed understanding of the consequences of their actions.
CorpusAg09
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I'm putting 20% down on a 30 year loan for a primary residence. I have a credit score of around 770. I'm being told to expect 4.75-4.875 for no points. I'm hearing that from a lender I'm working with and an unrelated person I've also spoken to.

Does that sound close to the market to anyone familiar lending rates at this time?
SteveBott
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AG
Sounds close. I might be at 4.625 with setting up an escrow account
Jay@AgsReward.com
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Sponsor
AG
Corpus,


We are closer to 4.5% (without points) depending the exact variables, but that sounds a little high.
bamdvm
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We closed on ours on Wednesday at 4.625%
Douph
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closed on refi on 2/6 on 15 yr at 3.25%
SteveBott
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AG
This is a pretty worthless number. When did you lock? Did you pay points? If so how much? What was total closing costs? Loan size?
Douph
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locked around mid Jan

closing costs 4k

total loan amt 165k

we went from a 30 yr note to a 15 yr note
jpb1999
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AG
Welp... I heard rates went way up in the last few days/week...? From 3.9 to 4.65? Anyone with any insight on actual current rates for 30 year fixed?
_________________________________________

Spane Bohem


SteveBott
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AG
Your current spread is about right but more like over the last 18 months not days
jpb1999
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AG
Hmmm, so what have the rates done over the past week or so?

TIA
_________________________________________

Spane Bohem


SteveBott
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AG
Mostly up. Very slight tick down today but the overall net is up since last Friday about an eighth plus a little
rondis23
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AG
How are things looking this late in May? Been coming across rates varying from the 4.8-5% range. This sound about right?
SteveBott
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AG
I'm under 5.0 and depending on the loan around 4.75 as a floor. Pretty strong bull market right now.
rondis23
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AG
Good to know! These rates have come up fast...I have not seen anything like this before.
SteveBott
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AG
Had a small dip last two days. Let's see if it holds
PrestigeWorldwideAg12
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Just got a 4.5% quote yesterday
CD12Ag
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AG
We saw the same thing. I was pleasantly surprised when I heard 4.5% and immediately locked. Most of the quotes I got over the past 2-3 weeks were in the 4.75-5.5% range, depending on the type of mortgage.
PrestigeWorldwideAg12
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DONmination said:

We saw the same thing. I was pleasantly surprised when I heard 4.5% and immediately locked. Most of the quotes I got over the past 2-3 weeks were in the 4.75-5.5% range, depending on the type of mortgage.


Hoping it stays a week or two.
SteveBott
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AG
Best drop in the market today all year! We are on a three day solid downward trend
rondis23
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AG
Once the margins are added, will this affect the overall interest rate you lock in at the end?
SteveBott
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I have no idea what your asking. Margins? Need more details
oldarmy76
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Any of you lenders want to throw out a rate for 25% down. 760+ credit score. 195k purchase price. And 30 day close?
SteveBott
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AG
Be happy to buy would rather send a formal offer by email. Contact me at steve@stevebott.com. I have a couple of questions to get you an accurate proposal
insulator_king
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AG
Interesting discussion. I'm planning to purchase home beginning of next year in Corrales, NM.
WIll miss those 3.5% rates, that's for sure.
TamuKid
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AG
Did this thread die?
Mister Mystery Guest
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