Space X mid June IPO valuation 1.5 trillion

Open AI fourth quarter 2026 valuation 1 trillion

if you go into your brokerage and click "Buy" at 0930 when the markets open-

has the price already jumped 33% in the two seconds it takes to transact with the computers?

I wonder how many employees at SpaceX are suddenly billionaires.

Half wondering if these IPOs will be the bubble popping.

KingofHazor said:

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I wonder how many employees at SpaceX are suddenly billionaires.

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I don't know. How many investors do they have? What percentage does Elon hold?
Probably a bunch with some options packages that will finally become exercisable and I've read somewhere that there were some small moves with a small bit of internal trades.

Does a common person have a decent chance of getting shares?

I think SpaceX is a good investment, but I would stay far away from OpenAI. Their debt commitments are insane, and I'm not confident that their AI is particularly sticky. It's pretty easy to just jump to Gemini.

Has anyone actually tried to buy shares the minute a company goes public on their brokerages?

I am just wondering if it is already too late to purchase at 0930 when the market opens

because the sales price has gone up by 30% before you hit the "buy" button.

Yes, millions of shares are traded that way. But it also cuts both ways - some IPOs crater they day they're made available to the public.

The deal will likely be oversubscribed. The underwriters will not have to call many retail customers to fill their allocation. .

My view on deals like this is that if you can get shares at the IPO price, you probably don't want them. For either of these or Anthropic to have a meaningful IPO they will need to sell shares equivalent to 15-20% of the total outstanding inclusive of the new shares. At a $1T valuation, that's $200B of new money per issuance that needs to come in with $300-400B of allocable demand in the order book to make the offering meaningfully oversubscribed. For all three to have a successful IPO, you're looking at $600B+ of money coming into the market.

For OpenAI specifically, I'd be concerned that the IPO is the financing source of last resort for them. They've raised $80B to date, and its unclear how much more they will need to burn before the business turns the corner and becomes self-sustaining. Is the public market going to be receptive to larger follow-on or equity-linked issuances at a later date?

I'm interested to watch and see if one or more of these deals get done just to see if the structural hurdles can be cleared but have no interest in participating in any of them.

jh0400 said:

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My view on deals like this is that if you can get shares at the IPO price, you probably don't want them. For either of these or Anthropic to have a meaningful IPO they will need to sell shares equivalent to 15-20% of the total outstanding inclusive of the new shares. At a $1T valuation, that's $200B of new money per issuance that needs to come in with $300-400B of allocable demand in the order book to make the offering meaningfully oversubscribed. For all three to have a successful IPO, you're looking at $600B+ of money coming into the market.

For OpenAI specifically, I'd be concerned that the IPO is the financing source of last resort for them. They've raised $80B to date, and its unclear how much more they will need to burn before the business turns the corner and becomes self-sustaining. Is the public market going to be receptive to larger follow-on or equity-linked issuances at a later date?

I'm interested to watch and see if one or more of these deals get done just to see if the structural hurdles can be cleared but have no interest in participating in any of them.

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sounds like you may be interested in checking out some of these VC offerings:

https://www.ourcrowd.com/?hp=true

LMCane said:

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jh0400 said:

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My view on deals like this is that if you can get shares at the IPO price, you probably don't want them. For either of these or Anthropic to have a meaningful IPO they will need to sell shares equivalent to 15-20% of the total outstanding inclusive of the new shares. At a $1T valuation, that's $200B of new money per issuance that needs to come in with $300-400B of allocable demand in the order book to make the offering meaningfully oversubscribed. For all three to have a successful IPO, you're looking at $600B+ of money coming into the market.

For OpenAI specifically, I'd be concerned that the IPO is the financing source of last resort for them. They've raised $80B to date, and its unclear how much more they will need to burn before the business turns the corner and becomes self-sustaining. Is the public market going to be receptive to larger follow-on or equity-linked issuances at a later date?

I'm interested to watch and see if one or more of these deals get done just to see if the structural hurdles can be cleared but have no interest in participating in any of them.

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sounds like you may be interested in checking out some of these VC offerings:

https://www.ourcrowd.com/?hp=true

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And if you're being solicited a VC offering that can get you a pre-IPO price for 5% less than what it becomes widely available at, you're likely paying 7% for that access.

No one is giving away free money.

You can buy and sell shares of SpaceX through Forge. I think the bid/ask right now is about $447.

jh0400 said:

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Nope. Good venture deals aren't marketed to people like me. To get that far, a lot of people who do it for a living would have had to pass.

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Great, great point. Early in my career I lived in the oil patch. I invested as an outsider in a handful of drilling "opportunities" and every single time lost my ass. I quickly learned two things: 1) I wasn't being shown the good deals, and 2) the only money being made in the deals shown to me was by the promoter.

IPOs are generally a terrible investment.

Elon Musk is the master grifter in a lot of ways in which he's able to keep the grift going through sleight of hand. Tesla's business today is cratering, yet its valuation continues to grow. Explain that with efficient market theory. His latest endeavor is to pump SpaceX with xAI. Of course, he owns both companies and can set the valuation himself, merely as a marketing signal for what a potential IPO would be "worth".

All that to say, Elon has a cult like following, and his cult does not care one bit about valuations. All they care about is him promising a grand future. Maybe they will one day care if his companies do not deliver.

To his credit, Elon has done some amazing things like built a commercially viable EV business and launched rockets that return....but he's also been promising self driving cars that he's failed to materialize for over a decade at this point. It's always a year away. Not to mention his deluge of other undelivered promises. There's a very thin line between genius entrepreneur and snake oil salesman. Elon is obviously both. Sometimes the snake that delivered the oil bites. His companies have too much single party risk with Elon himself. If Elon goes, likely the valuation craters. Or maybe one day he does something so egregious that it upsets the appetite of his investor base and the emperor has no clothes. Who knows.

The only comfort I have in owning any of Elon's businesses is based upon their global market cap weight in a global index fund. No more.

Brokerages give IPO shares to customers they want to give them to. Oversubscribed offerings are even harder to get into. Dropping a ticket to fill at the opening is a crapshoot.
Get 100 shares@, just wait until the price levels out, or wait until day 2.