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Business performance in 2nd Half of Year (H2'24)

705 Views | 3 Replies | Last: 12 days ago by Heineken-Ashi
aggiebrad16
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AG
Hi Guys! Last year I created a "How was the performance of your business in the first half of 2024" post and there was lots of great discussion. I am going to try to make this a regular thing. I'd like feedback if we'd like to change this to quarterly or if anyone would like to see other things included in this.

1st Half of 2024 Post

1H'24 post had quite a bit of negative sentiment and poor performance. A link to that discussion is above. I am sure like us, most people have not closed their December or Q4 financial statements but we directionally know where we are going to land. Even if you are unsure or don't have access to where financials for the business you work in are going to land, your input about goals and targets are helpful to hear about!

We are an equipment company in Central Texas with sub $10mm in revenue. We are a small business. While we struggled to hit our 1H'24 targets, we had more up months than down months in the second half that resurrected our year. Overall, 2024 was up a few percentage points from a revenue standpoint YoY. We had no price increases and in fact pricing was a headwind to our overall performance as we shifted our revenue profile from being dependent on residential construction to commercial construction. This is overall a major positive for us, although pricing gets significantly more competitive for those jobs.

Compared to the negative sentiment I had going into H2'24, I was somewhat pleasantly surprised by the results.

From an expense standpoint, I find that it is easier to motivate employees and managers to be cost conscious in an overall economy that is feeling pressure. They treat spending at work the same way they treat the way they spend money at home. I think most can agree that times are tougher than they have been in recent past for individuals. Because of that, I think we are actually going to wind up with a nice boost to our earnings YoY. Our company is finally rowing in the same direction from an expense standpoint. This is helped greatly by decent performing months of November and December that were pretty abysmal in 2023.

Looking forward, I am just grateful to operate in the Central Texas economy. There are not many economies in the US that are as dynamic and positive right now. That doesn't mean I am not anxious. The election is probably going to provide a bit of a tailwind going forward for us but everyone has their eyes glued to the fed and the 10yr. From a competition standpoint, it is getting fierce as we all compete for fewer jobs as there were before. From contractors we are hearing things like "We have the work, but owners keep pushing the start date off to the right" which is a better alternative than hearing that they have no work. We still do not see an uptick in our residential construction side but commercial is chugging along.

My sentiment for the year is cautiously optimistic. We plan on deploying capex purchases to lean into pockets of success that our business development group and managers are identifying. We have a fairly aggressive growth plan for the year. Stay tuned!

What is everyone else seeing??
Sims
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AG
Here's what I posted on your other thread:

Quote:

ASME Vessel Fabricator

Revenue in 1H24 was about 1/3 of 2023...2H24 will be about 1/2 of 1H24.

Result was:
  • 2023 - 117M
  • 1H24 - 42M
  • 2H24 - 35M

I'll admit, I was guilty of that negative sentiment you talked about but we surprised to the upside with a couple surprising and expedited orders in Q324.

We work with 3 O&G majors, was 4 and Pioneer got gobbled up. I'm cautiously optimistic for this year but I don't think the majors will be on any spending sprees. I think service companies should do well. Pretty much any vendor that allows volume to come out of the ground and move should do well. Our equipment is 1st step out of the wellhead so that is nice. I don't think the producers will have blowout results since they make money on price and not volume - I do expect service companies and those who serve them to do well.
Troglodyte
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AG
I'm in real estate....primarily apartments; primarily Texas and Southeast; heavy in Texas and Florida. Its very market driven, but due to a lot of supply coming online, new lease rents have been declining slightly, renewal rents have been increasing slightly. Expenses were out of control the past couple of years (so were rents though), but have now seemed to level out.

Transactions in our industry follow the 10 year treasury. Transactions have been gummed up the past couple of years. When the 10 year fell below 4%, things picked up quickly. They quickly stopped as the 10 year climbed over 4.5%.

My outlook for 2025 is bleak. Rents will decline slightly, expenses will level out, and transactions will be minimal without long term interest rates coming down. Once all the new supply comes on by end of 2025, I think we will have 2-3 years of good rent growth. New apartment starts are few and far between. We just need to get through this glut of supply.
Heineken-Ashi
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Troglodyte said:

I'm in real estate....primarily apartments; primarily Texas and Southeast; heavy in Texas and Florida. Its very market driven, but due to a lot of supply coming online, new lease rents have been declining slightly, renewal rents have been increasing slightly. Expenses were out of control the past couple of years (so were rents though), but have now seemed to level out.

Transactions in our industry follow the 10 year treasury. Transactions have been gummed up the past couple of years. When the 10 year fell below 4%, things picked up quickly. They quickly stopped as the 10 year climbed over 4.5%.

My outlook for 2025 is bleak. Rents will decline slightly, expenses will level out, and transactions will be minimal without long term interest rates coming down. Once all the new supply comes on by end of 2025, I think we will have 2-3 years of good rent growth. New apartment starts are few and far between. We just need to get through this glut of supply.
Same industry and same region. You share the pretty much consensus view, though many are more bullish. Personally, I think it completely depends on location and tenant base. Value Add and class B&C are going to struggle hard this year. The lower end of the economy is getting crushed. Their credit maxed. There will be no room to push rents for the foreseeable future. Class A in great neighborhoods is going to be flat to slightly down in areas of continued supply deliveries, and will likely see solid rent gains in areas with no new supply. Everything in the middle will perform in the middle. Deal volume isn't ticking up unless rates drop below 4% for 3 months or longer, and most will still be uber bullish firms overpaying mixed with underwater operators selling before SHTF on their debt. I think we see a significant uptick in distressed properties hitting the market and people who can source off market deals might find some steals. But valuations are not going to make sense, even on those. And next time rates get above 5%, the real CRE recession takes hold and everybody has to come to the realization that 2019-2021 is in the rearview and their properties aren't worth 60% of those values.
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