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Dividends?

8,795 Views | 96 Replies | Last: 6 days ago by Cyprian
I bleed maroon
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AG
Quote:

I know the earning potential of dividend vs growth is not debatable really. Growth wins that 99/100
I actually DO think it's debatable, for several reasons.

1. How do you define a growth vs. dividend stock? AAPL is generally considered a growth stock, but does pay a small dividend. If PLTR or TSLA suddenly declares a 1 cent dividend tomorrow, are they no longer growth stocks? The categorization is a bit meaningless, as each stock should stand on its own merits.

2. I'm going to assume by "earning potential", you mean investor return potential? If so, 99/100 is way too high, for most time horizons, and most likely only somewhat accurate for 30-50 year time horizons. For 1-5 year periods, I'd suggest it may be closer to 70/30 or 60/40 in favor of growth (although it's been higher lately), and in bear markets, it swings to favor dividend stocks.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
gigemhilo said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:


Thanks for actually providing a response rather than simply attacking me.

Bro, you started a thread to argue, called people dumb, then gaslit them when they defended their arguments, and kept pouring gas on the fire to play the victim.

People aren't attacking you - you came here for a fight, and kept poking until you got it.
Someone posted a vague, unspecific fact that was meant to be a counterargument, which I called dumb. Not the poster himself. I specified why it was not a valuable argument. (ie. selling shares rather than taking dividends means you'll eventually run out.)

That's not what gaslighting is, that's responding to a poorly worded argument which was a complete misrepresentation of what my OP is.
Bayou City
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And It's Clear he knows nothing about most things Finance. Thats the funny part of this thread. He's a chest thumping know it all that knows nothing and what he thinks he knows is wrong. It's next level Texags at It's finest.
Bayou City
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You dont even know enough to know what you don't know.

How many YouTubes did You Watch before You Certified yourself as an expert? How many nights at the holiday in did it take? I have some Junior Advisors that need to stay where you did my man because wow you went from know nothing to senior portfolio Advisor in 2 days. Someone shouldve already hired you w bredth and depth of knowledge your spouting here. ROFL.

Let me guess you picked up your CFA and CFP too in those 2 days? Thanks for a great laugh my guy. Saving this thread to show the office on Monday.
12thMan9
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AG
Bayou City said:

You dont even know enough to know what you don't know.

How many YouTubes did You Watch before You Certified yourself as an expert?


He's slept outside several Holiday Inn's the past 30 days.
Ronnie '88
aggiebrad16
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Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
You gonna keep making the same post over and over again?

Or are you gonna actually make a valuable post and show me how wrong I am?
aggiebrad16
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AG
Personally I think this has been blown out of proportion. I'm more of a lurker but spend probably too much time on TexAgs. Spillner provides usually pretty level headed and valuable information in lots of cases. I think some of his counter points are being taken as aggressive.

I don't think there's any reason to attack anyone.

My two cents… retained earnings of a company can be used in two ways… future growth investment, distribution to owners, or both. I know this board loves ET. Their fcf generation is insane. They have a commitment to increase distributions to shareholders each year (and lately every quarter!)… however they blew through their capex budget which was around $2.5b and ended up over $3b in capex investment for the year. Share price has steadily marched higher, growth investment has marched higher, and capital returned to shareholders has steadily marched higher. What I look forward to with ET is the compounding effects of increasing share price and increasing dividends.

In a vacuum, yes growth stocks typically beat dividend stocks. But dividend stocks are also typically synonymous with value stocks… and you don't have to look to far to see how value investing has created some of the most wealth in human history through reinvesting dividends and compounding of those dividends over long time horizons.

Hear me when I say, I try to keep a balanced portfolio. My heart yearns for value investing, but I know the smart play is to also invest in high growth companies that plow all retained earnings (if there are any) back into the company.
techno-ag
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AG
Well said. It boils down to a balanced portfolio.
Trump will fix it.
Petrino1
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When I first started investing, I used to chase dividend yield. I quickly realized that was a mistake and now focus on overall return. But I still like receiving dividends and think they can be useful.

One piece of data I found interesting is that throughout most market crashes and recessions, companies very rarely cut/suspended their dividend. The one exception obviously being the 2008 GFC, 61 of the S&P 500 cut or suspended their dividend. I think this is a pretty strong argument for dividend investing because companies will bend over backwards and do everything possible to not cut their dividend.



Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
techno-ag said:

Well said. It boils down to a balanced portfolio.


Exactly right.

I believe the S&P 500 provides a pretty perfect balance.
techno-ag
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halfastros81
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AG
Huge difference in predictability of income between historically reliable dividend payers and so called growth stocks . For some folks especially retirees this could be a significant factor wouldn't you agree OP? What's good or bad ( or dumb or smart) might be a matter of perspective.
Thisguy1
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Bayou City said:

And It's Clear he knows nothing about most things Finance. Thats the funny part of this thread. He's a chest thumping know it all that knows nothing and what he thinks he knows is wrong. It's next level Texags at It's finest.


This is a pretty ironic post given your lecturing to the outdoors board the other day.
2wealfth Man
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AG
I have a REIT portfolio (among others) which focuses on high yield. The objective is to get the compounding machine going in high gear. It is just another means to reach the same ends. I am continually having to monitor FCF, debt levels, etc. on this portfolio. One nice side effect is that the REIT dividends qualify for the 20% pass through exclusion so they are more tax efficient than ordinary income. It takes a lot more (continual) fundamental analysis to determine when to go in and out of high growth stocks to achieve the same outcome; but it can be highly profitable if you pick companies that are in a strong growth phase with a winning product / service offering.
Petrino1
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What I love about dividends is that I just made $3k in dividends this month alone, and I can use that to go on a trip, or reinvest, or do whatever I want with it. I basically have a guaranteed income stream of $3k every quarter for life, and it will only continue to go up as dividends increase, and I continue to invest more.

I had a buddy who got laid off from big oil during the 2015 oil bust, and it took him a while to find a job because very few companies were hiring during that time. Luckily he invested well when he was employed, and was making $2k a month in dividends that could help sustain him without having to withdraw from savings or investments.
Hoyt Ag
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AG
One of my good friends is 55 and slow travelling the world in early retirement off $3000mo in dividends. He always shoots for 2000mo and reinvests the rest, but also knows we dont have infinite amounts of time and so he does splurge some. We are meeting up with him in Vietnam for 2-3 weeks in February.
FinalCylon
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AG
That's awesome! Good for you man

Would you mind sharing some of your dividend portfolio? As in what stocks, funds…..not actually sharing $
Petrino1
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FinalCylon said:

That's awesome! Good for you man

Would you mind sharing some of your dividend portfolio? As in what stocks, funds…..not actually sharing $
Honestly, the majority of my dividends come from Vanguard index funds (VTSAX, VTIAX, VHYAX, VBTLX), and just stashing tons of money in there throughout the years. But I also have a smaller portfolio of blue chip dividend stocks like XOM, SHEL, WMT, GM, PM, JNJ, AAPL, VLO, PG etc.

I used to have a lot more dividend stocks like T and VZ, but most of them did nothing over the years, so I ended up selling them and just keeping the winners.
Petrino1
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Hoyt Ag said:

One of my good friends is 55 and slow travelling the world in early retirement off $3000mo in dividends. He always shoots for 2000mo and reinvests the rest, but also knows we dont have infinite amounts of time and so he does splurge some. We are meeting up with him in Vietnam for 2-3 weeks in February.
Love it, living the dream!
jja79
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AG
My dad was born in 1922 so he came of age in the depression. He was focused on dividends. Not saying he did it right but my mother has lived for 35 years off dividends without ever touching the nest egg.
Petrino1
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jja79 said:

My dad was born in 1922 so he came of age in the depression. He was focused on dividends. Not saying he did it right but my mother has lived for 35 years off dividends without ever touching the nest egg.


This is goals! Kudos to your dad for building a long lasting legacy.
EclipseAg
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AG
bigtruckguy3500 said:


Back when I first started investing, every stock purchase came with a fee. So dividend reinvestment (DRIP) offered the advantage of buying more stock without paying that fee.
A lot of younger investors (and advisors) overlook this history. You couldn't buy fractional shares or uneven lots back in the day. And even if you found a broker who would sell you 10 shares of something, the high commissions would kill your returns.

DRIPs made it possible for people to invest small amounts and dollar cost average over time, with the extra advantage of earning dividends that would be reinvested. They leveled the playing field for smaller investors. I had a lot of success investing this way.

Today, you can set up a free trading account in a couple of minutes. But that hasn't always been the case, and that's one of the reasons why dividend stocks have been popular historically.
Diggity
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AG
that's a good point. Transaction costs use to make frequent buying and selling prohibitive to a lot of retail investors, but they're essentially zero now.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
I'd like to apologize to everyone on this thread for responding in a confrontational or know-it-all manner.

I can see how my OP can come across as trying to invite conflict.
halfastros81
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AG
FWIW, I didn't take it as inviting conflict . It's a legit topic imo and brought out some good points.
Cyprian
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AG
I include dividends with my analysis, but it's just a part of what I'm looking at. I could see over emphasizing them can be an issue.

My grandparents retired on dividend stocks. They retired in their mid-50s, and moved to San Diego and lived out a comfortable life. So, I wouldn't knock it down too much either, it definitely works.
 
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