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Replacement for AAPL

2,731 Views | 16 Replies | Last: 18 days ago by Medaggie
2wealfth Man
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7:30a, 12/9/24
AG
Have held AAPL for years in a portfolio of about 20-25 stocks. Mulling over the idea of downsizing my position due to the potential for a trade war with China; I just don't like the exposure at this point as the political risk keeps scaling up.

Looked at Broadcom and Qualcomm and both are very heavily exposed to China as well. Micron Technology (MU) seems to be more palatable with around 10% of 2023 revenues coming from China and a massive growth runway if they can scale production.

Any other out of the box ideas for a tech / growth replacement would be appreciated. Smaller dividend yield with growth potential would be optimal as willing to hold long-term.

ETA: Already have full positions in Microsoft and Oracle
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Tormentos
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8:02a, 12/9/24
AG
Suggest you head over to stock charts and run some ratio charts against AAPL to find candidates that are outperforming on a longer term basis (not talking about 10+ years but something in a distinct trend months/years). I did exactly what you are talking about about two years ago and the return was much better than had I just held in AAPL (I bought PANW and ANET).
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OldArmyCT
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4:52a, 12/10/24
AG
There are a lot of stocks that have outperformed Apple the last few years.That doesn't mean they will going forward. But you know that. My Apple basis is about $8 and I'm still holding, but two of my better buys this year are FTNT and VGT. I think PLTR still has legs but I don't own any.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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7:46a, 12/10/24
AG
I replaced AAPL with NVDA.
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infinity ag
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8:49a, 12/10/24
I had AAPL for since before they released the iPhone, maybe 2007. Made a ton of money, paid for my house downpayment also. Sold a year after Jobs died as it was lagging. They have done well since but operationally, not as a significant innovator. I know this has nothing to do with the goal of making money, but I made better money elsewhere.
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pfo
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9:52a, 12/10/24
AG
If you want that money to stay in tech, look at Service Now (NOW). It's SaaS, they grow earnings at 20%, they never miss their earnings and their CEO is a superstar. NOW is one of my bullet proof stocks. I have owned it for 8 years.

META… Another 20% grower and with 3.29 billion users, no advertiser can afford to not pay them to show their ads. And this stock is very reasonably priced.

Vistra (VST)… Independent power producer with lots of Texas assets. Vistra produces electricity using nuclear, nat gas and coal fired plants. One day the AI buildout will slow, but the power demands won't.
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Agsquatch
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2:58p, 12/10/24
AG
First of all, absolutely stellar name.

Obviously single-stock investing carries more risk than ETFs or MFs, but here's a couple ideas...

If you want less of a Chinese regulation risk (at the expense of a Chinese physical risk) TSCI could be an option - staying in tech, massive plans for US manufacturing, and Taiwanese.

If you're looking for something with a little diversification, check out SOFI. Rockstar leadership and a monumental rise over the past 3 months. IMO that is a millionaire maker stock.

Make your own decisions and do your own DD, I am a financial advisor but not yours.


Obviously neither one of them are anywhere close to AAPL, but if it fits your parameters go ahead.
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KerrAg76
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8:14a, 12/11/24
My buddy Tim Cook runs Apple. I'll verify the above by saying he's not a dreaming innovator but a STELLAR nuts and bolts technician
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tysker
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9:25a, 12/11/24
AG
I haven't checked the math but I saw this on my substack stream:

Quote:
$1,000 investments worth over $1 million:
Bitcoin: 7 years
Nvidia: 11 years
Google: 14 years
Tesla: 15 years
Netflix: 17 years
Apple: 24 years
Amazon: 25 years
Starbucks: 30 years
Microsoft: 34 years
Costco: 35 years
replacing the risk-adjusted returns of companies like AAPL isn't easy to do
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2wealfth Man
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10:30a, 12/11/24
AG
Thanks all, I have come around to keeping it for now mainly because it is a cash flow monster the likes of which we haven't seen before. Why not take advantage of the massive share buybacks and smallish dividend. I might sell some out of the money calls dated a few months out to supplement the dividend income. If I get called I can revisit the business fundamentals and political / trade climate then and decide if I want to buy back in.
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62strat
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In reply to tysker • 12:15p, 12/11/24
AG
tysker said:
I haven't checked the math but I saw this on my substack stream:

Quote:
$1,000 investments worth over $1 million:
Bitcoin: 7 years
Nvidia: 11 years
Google: 14 years
Tesla: 15 years
Netflix: 17 years
Apple: 24 years
Amazon: 25 years
Starbucks: 30 years
Microsoft: 34 years
Costco: 35 years
replacing the risk-adjusted returns of companies like AAPL isn't easy to do
I bought 6 of these stocks in 2016/2017, all roughly $5-$10k each, and still own them. I bought tsla about 3 years ago and NVDA last year, so just missing starbucks and btc.

Hoping for a lot of millions when I retire in about 15 years!



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62strat
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In reply to tysker • 12:27p, 12/11/24
AG
tysker said:
I haven't checked the math but I saw this on my substack stream:

Quote:
$1,000 investments worth over $1 million:
Bitcoin: 7 years
Nvidia: 11 years
Google: 14 years
Tesla: 15 years
Netflix: 17 years
Apple: 24 years
Amazon: 25 years
Starbucks: 30 years
Microsoft: 34 years
Costco: 35 years

some of these are way off.

btc ($100k) in late 2017 was $7k-$10k, so not much more than 10x.

NVDA ($140) wasn't $0.14 since around 2008 (though that wouldn't account for dividends), and nflx ($940) hasn't been $1 since 2003.

Tsla IPO in 2010 at $17 would have gotten you ~60 shares, after splits 900 shares today, so worth ~$370k today.

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Deputy Travis Junior
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In reply to OldArmyCT • 8:41p, 12/11/24
OldArmyCT said:
There are a lot of stocks that have outperformed Apple the last few years.That doesn't mean they will going forward. But you know that. My Apple basis is about $8 and I'm still holding, but two of my better buys this year are FTNT and VGT. I think PLTR still has legs but I don't own any.


Palantir may go higher, but you're banking on finding a greater fool. It's insanely expensive right now. Market cap of $165B against TTM revenue of $2.65B gives you a price to revenue ratio of 61x. A 61x PE ratio is pricey (need to be very confident in growth prospects), but for revenue it's bonkers. I wouldn't touch a 61x revenue ratio outside of early-stage venture
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RoyVal
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 6:28a, 12/13/24
AG
2wealfth Man said:


Looked at Broadcom and Qualcomm and both are very heavily exposed to China as well.


ETA: Already have full positions in Microsoft and Oracle


You might want to do yourself a favor and reexamine what you think you know about Broadcom. I'd start with a transcript of the earnings call from yesterday. Through 2027, there is a catalyst for serious growth.

Disclosure: I work for Broadcom and have holdings of AVGO.

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woodiewood
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7:48a, 12/13/24
Buy equal dollar amounts of Tesla, PLTR, and Nvdia and hold them for five years and you will be very happy.

With the majority of your finds, look to buy the top two companies in the growth and stable sectors. Can't go wrong with companies such as Lilly, up 32% YTD. Walmart, up 71% YTD, Tesla, up 68% YTD, PLTR, 341%, Nvdia, up 136% YTD, Costco, up 51% YTD.

Those are the growth companies that have the resources to expand their business, buy smaller profitable companies, and/or have the ability to look at other innovative directions for growth.

For the 10% speculative I am in areas such as Quantum computers, bitcoin, and the small modular nuclear power companies.
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Deputy Travis Junior
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In reply to woodiewood • 11:29a, 12/16/24
Tesla is pushing into a lot of new markets that could grow the business and increase its valuation (and let's be real, government support makes a huge difference). But I disagree on Nvidia and Palantir.

Nvidia is already sitting at a 3.2 trillion market cap with a 50x+ PE multiple. If you want 20%/year from your hot tech stock / AAPL replacement, that means Nvidia will have to hit an 8 trillion market cap in 5 years. It's unlikely to have a 50x PE multiple at that price, which means that it'll have to continue to grow a ton AND fight through significant multiple compression. I'm not positive it won't, but that's a risky bet IMO. I've listened to lots of long form interviews with Jensen and love the guy, but eesh, betting on the bull case requires one to accept so many BIG assumptions about AI's growth. Like, the hyper scalers are going to continue to buy or even ramp up their GPU Capex, which is already in the tens of billions of dollars, and inference demand is going to the moon.

As I mentioned a few posts above, I think Palantir is a joke at this price. Its market cap is $165 billion for just $2.6 billion of revenue (not earnings, revenue), and its net income is $475 million. Again, to get 20% growth, its market cap will have to clear $400 billion. Given current margins (not a good assumption but it lets us ballpark this), that means they need to 10-12x income in 5 years to hit a 400B+ market cap at an ~80x PE multiple. Do we really think they'll 12x income in 5 years? That is wild growth for a mature-ish company with long sales cycles sitting in a ruthlessly competitive field (so, so many big data and analytics companies).
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Medaggie
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11:50p, 12/16/24
Disclaimer - I sell to early and I buy to late.

I have only about 10% of my net worth in stocks so I am willing to be risky. Half of my stocks are in Tesla and I made a mistake when my stocks were called right before the run up.

But I have made a promise to myself that all of my stocks going forward will be comprised mostly from

Goog, NVDA, Tsla, Apple, Amaz, msft and likely PTR. I don't get meta so prob won't add it.

But I will essentially be Mag 7 for the long haul. I believe innovation will be from Tech and will buy best of breed.
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