i just got my check from TRS and i am thinking i wait until after the election to put check in my roll over account. Is this a good idea or does it even matter to wait?

Congratulations!!

What the hell does the election have to do with your TRS?

1) Put money into rollover account in a time frame consistent with IRS rules if applicable.
2) Buy shares of a money market FUND. Should earn around 5%.
3) Wait until AFTER the election per your intended desires.
4) Per your investment strategy / personal situation invest said money.

JMac03 said:

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You pulled out your TRS? I've always seen that as my guaranteed $$ when I retire. Main reason I won't leave here, cause TRS is a known monthly payout.

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I got lump sum AND monthly pay out, both, the one year lump sum is over $50,000 for me and only reduced my monthly pay out by $200 a month. Each person is different because of the TRS formula

Baby Billy said:

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What the hell does the election have to do with your TRS?

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TRS Lump sum from my retirement, my lump sum investment, so if one side wins election it won't affect the stock market? It SURE DID when trump got elected

So election has nothing to do with stock market? the following is an analysis about China's financial situation:

"China's weighting in the MSCI EM Index rose from 24% in Aug to 30% now, and its continued outperformance may drive a self-reinforcing 'pain-trade' before the year-end," Bank of America analysts said in a note on Monday.

However, they said, the "'buy everything' stage will be over soon," with market momentum, fiscal support, earnings, the U.S. election and further policy settings all part of the outlook.

TAMUworkingAG said:

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So election has nothing to do with stock market? the following is an analysis about China's financial situation:

"China's weighting in the MSCI EM Index rose from 24% in Aug to 30% now, and its continued outperformance may drive a self-reinforcing 'pain-trade' before the year-end," Bank of America analysts said in a note on Monday.

However, they said, the "'buy everything' stage will be over soon," with market momentum, fiscal support, earnings, the U.S. election and further policy settings all part of the outlook.Co

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Over the long term, elections have nothing to do with the stock market. The market moves based on interest rates and earnings over the long term.

Monywolf said:

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TAMUworkingAG said:

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So election has nothing to do with stock market? the following is an analysis about China's financial situation:

"China's weighting in the MSCI EM Index rose from 24% in Aug to 30% now, and its continued outperformance may drive a self-reinforcing 'pain-trade' before the year-end," Bank of America analysts said in a note on Monday.

However, they said, the "'buy everything' stage will be over soon," with market momentum, fiscal support, earnings, the U.S. election and further policy settings all part of the outlook.Co

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Over the long term, elections have nothing to do with the stock market. The market moves based on interest rates and earnings over the long term.

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I'm 68 years old and more interested in short term investment losses on this money. I have to start taking money out if it I think when I turn 71 I think, since it's not a lot of money, any loss might be devastating when it's mandatory to start taking money out if it. It's such a small amount I guess I really shouldn't worry about it so much

TAMUworkingAG said:

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I'm 68 years old and more interested in short term investment losses on this money. I have to start taking money out if it I think when I turn 71 I think, since it's not a lot of money, any loss might be devastating when it's mandatory to start taking money out if it. It's such a small amount I guess I really shouldn't worry about it so much

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If this is the case ("any loss might be devastating"), you should have taken the lifetime payments option presented to you, as it avoids losses.

It's not too late, however. There's a product known as an immediate annuity that acts like a personalized pension - converts a lump sum to a guaranteed lifetime stream of income. Each payment you get is partially a return of principal and partially interest until the original principal is exhausted. You get more than a normal interest kicker because they pay you for your mortality (i.e. the insurance company keeps your principal if you die before your expected lifespan). If you live longer than average, you come out a winner.

If it were me, I'd take the risk of a conservative equity portfolio with 4% annual withdrawals. Yes, there's a chance of loss, but if your timeframe is long enough (over a decade?), you're likely to come out ahead.

Assess your risk tolerance, and decide accordingly.

I did take the lifetime pension, I get both. I get a lump sum and a monthly payment too . I should have said partial lump sum, my bad

TAMUworkingAG said:

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I did take the lifetime pension, I get both. I get a lump sum and a monthly payment too . I should have said partial lump sum, my bad

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Then I would suggest that your risk of loss may not be devastating (since you have an "income floor" with the monthly payment), and invest the money for growth and income. Plenty of good lower-risk options for investors in your situation.

Thanks

TAMUworkingAG said:

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Baby Billy said:

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What the hell does the election have to do with your TRS?

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so if one side wins election it won't affect the stock market?

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No, it typically doesn't.

A couple thoughts. First when the first Gulf War kicked off the headlines were full of doom and gloom for the market. It took off. When Trump was trending to win the 2016 election as the night wore on predictions of a market meltdown were all over the financial headlines. It soared the next morning. I retired in 2018 and invested 100% in the market, all equity. I had to take RMD's the next year. I'm still 100% equity today, obviously a lot older, and my IRA's have almost doubled. I had friends who retired the same time as I did and bought CD's, every single one of them has less money today than when they retired.
I kind of like the market, and you know something, it has never gone down without coming back up.

OldArmyCT said:

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A couple thoughts. First when the first Gulf War kicked off the headlines were full of doom and gloom for the market. It took off. When Trump was trending to win the 2016 election as the night wore on predictions of a market meltdown were all over the financial headlines. It soared the next morning. I retired in 2018 and invested 100% in the market, all equity. I had to take RMD's the next year. I'm still 100% equity today, obviously a lot older, and my IRA's have almost doubled. I had friends who retired the same time as I did and bought CD's, every single one of them has less money today than when they retired.
I kind of like the market, and you know something, it has never gone down without coming back up.

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Well done!
Same story, I have been 100% in equity as well, outside of some rainy day money. My IRA has grown a lot and I can retire if I wanted to.
My friends who stayed out of the market or invested in other things have far less and worry about retirement.
I am now thinking of how to handle RMDs that will come up in some years and how best to handle it.

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I kind of like the market, and you know something, it has never gone down without coming back up.

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You've retired during the biggest inflation in the Dow in history, it's understandable that you like it!
The market can however go down & stay there for a decade, as it did in the 2000's.

I think we all have hit lightning in a bottle the past 10-15 years and we shouldn't pat ourselves on the back too much. Demographic collapse in the west & east Asia, Europe & The US being flooded with 3rd world grifters, continuing war in the ME.... something tells me we are due for a correction in the near future.

Not a bad thing to be cautious with your money during retirement at all. It's not like you have time to recover if things go bad in your late 70s.

JMO.

Apache said:

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Quote:

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I kind of like the market, and you know something, it has never gone down without coming back up.

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You've retired during the biggest inflation in the Dow in history, it's understandable that you like it!
The market can however go down & stay there for a decade, as it did in the 2000's.

I think we all have hit lightning in a bottle the past 10-15 years and we shouldn't pat ourselves on the back too much. Demographic collapse in the west & east Asia, Europe & The US being flooded with 3rd world grifters, continuing war in the ME.... something tells me we are due for a correction in the near future.

Not a bad thing to be cautious with your money during retirement at all. It's not like you have time to recover if things go bad in your late 70s.

JMO.

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That's very true but I look it at differently. If over 5 years I'm up maybe 40% in the stock market and it takes a 10% hit I'm losing profit. If I was in a 3% CD (that was what was offered back in 2018) I'd still have less money than the stock account, especially after taking my RMD's.
Whatever lets you sleep at night.

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5 years I'm up maybe 40% in the stock market

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We are certainly in unique times with regard to the market.

Apache said:

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Quote:

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5 years I'm up maybe 40% in the stock market

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We are certainly in unique times with regard to the market.

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Not really

Has there ever been another run with such rapid gains over such an extended period of time?

Apache said:

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Has there ever been another run with such rapid gains over such an extended period of time?

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I think their point is valid that it's not that abnormal. The S&P has gained 10.3% on average since its' inception in 1957. Even going back 150 years, the index equivalent has gained 9.3% on average. That makes a 40% cumulative return over 3 years not that outlandish.

To support your premise, the problem with "on average" is that returns are volatile over shorter terms, and if you catch a wave of downward movement, it can really negatively impact those cumulative results. It's even more pronounced if it happens in your first couple years of retirement, as you don't necessarily have decades to make it up. This is exacerbated by the natural human panic tendency to go with something hyper-conservative (like savings or a CD) instead of keeping the money in the market for the inevitable recovery.

So, you're both right, and you're both wrong. Proper portfolio diversification is probably the best risk/return solution.