In absence of a poll, star the answer below on what is your bet on the rate cut scenario. NOT what you want, or what you think is appropriate, but what you think it actually will be.
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9/18 FED Rate Cut - 25bp or 50bp?
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Last: 2 mo ago by Yukon Cornelius
25bp
50bp
0 bp
> 50 bp
25
And, for the record, I think it will be 50bp (because I can't vote in my own poll).
Good thread. CME fed watch has jumped to 63 percent probability of 50BP I think.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
aggiebrad16
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Lot's of liquidity about to hit the market with a 50bps. Fed knows they are behind the curve...as usual. Personally, I think these interest rate cuts will be disastrous for the overall economy. Whatever...let's kick the can again and see how far it goes this time.
And also for the record, if I were a voting member of the Fed, I'd vote for 25bp, at this time. Why? Because there really isn't any time urgency - we can easily drop rates again at the next meeting. The inflation data are trending in the right direction, and employment is still creeping upwards, so no extra stimulus boost appears to be absolutely needed. Plus, it avoids any perception of political influence.I bleed maroon said:
And, for the record, I think it will be 50bp (because I can't vote in my own poll).
Interesting that we're currently at 2-1 in favor of 25bp, here, while the betting market is slightly in favor of 50bp.
Trade wisely, my friends.
Thought that was interesting as well.
It will be fun to see if this is more narrative sewing by the market which is what I think happened a lot in the last couple years as they continually and incorrectly, thought Powell was bluffing on his way to (and how long he stayed at) higher for longer.
It will be fun to see if this is more narrative sewing by the market which is what I think happened a lot in the last couple years as they continually and incorrectly, thought Powell was bluffing on his way to (and how long he stayed at) higher for longer.
I think it's 50 and then it's going to stay there for awhile. Trump beat the hell out of Powell when he was in office. This will boost the market pre-election to keep the democrats in. However, I don't see it going much lower in the near future after that. This will be a "one and done". Why?
Kamala and her handouts are going to kindle inflation and interest rates will need to stay up a long time to stave off an inflation runaway situation. The game is to buy votes by giving handouts and the rest of us are paying dearly with high interest rates and continually rising costs (we are becoming poorer day-by-day). Their plan is actually quite genius and 90% of the people are too dumb to figure out what they are doing.
Kamala and her handouts are going to kindle inflation and interest rates will need to stay up a long time to stave off an inflation runaway situation. The game is to buy votes by giving handouts and the rest of us are paying dearly with high interest rates and continually rising costs (we are becoming poorer day-by-day). Their plan is actually quite genius and 90% of the people are too dumb to figure out what they are doing.
Fiddy, FTW.
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50 it is. I was pretty sure it was as going to be just 25. Wow.
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50 BP cut means unemployment is worse than we are being told.
"They weren't raiding a Girl Scout troop looking for overdue library books."
I think my theory is correct. This was an election cut to keep the democrats in office. We aren't going to see another one for quite some time.
I don't agree. I think my theory posted a couple days ago is correct:Bonfire97 said:
I think my theory is correct. This was an election cut to keep the democrats in office. We aren't going to see another one for quite some time.
- "I tend to agree with the last two posts. 50bp has more equity market downside than 25bp, but may be better for the economy, near-term. It may provide a kick-start to the real estate market, and maybe improve economics for small caps and heavily leveraged stocks. My two cents is that the market will stay mostly range-bound in the 5400-5700 range for the S&P until the election. At that point, all bets are off."
Actually, Powell's last two questions answered directly addressed this: In essence, he said:I bleed maroon said:I don't agree. I think my theory posted a couple days ago is correct:Bonfire97 said:
I think my theory is correct. This was an election cut to keep the democrats in office. We aren't going to see another one for quite some time.
- "I tend to agree with the last two posts. 50bp has more equity market downside than 25bp, but may be better for the economy, near-term. It may provide a kick-start to the real estate market, and maybe improve economics for small caps and heavily leveraged stocks. My two cents is that the market will stay mostly range-bound in the 5400-5700 range for the S&P until the election. At that point, all bets are off."
- No regard for politics - ain't nobody got time for that - it would never stop
- Sluggish real estate market was a prime driver for the cut.
Now, whether you believe him or not is up to you.
it is also a tacit admission that they think they should have cut 25 bp in june IMO.909Ag2006 said:
50 BP cut means unemployment is worse than we are being told.
I love bears reasoning... Despite the fed saying they expected 3 cuts this year back in December, and them waiting till now and making the 50bps cut that was already priced in, bears think this means the fed knows something the street doesn't and things are way worse than anyone knows. Seems like bears start with the conclusion that everything is screwed up and just twist evidence to support that conclusion.
Username fits.permabull said:
I love bears reasoning... Despite the fed saying they expected 3 cuts this year back in December, and them waiting till now and making the 50bps cut that was already priced in, bears think this means the fed knows something the street doesn't and things are way worse than anyone knows. Seems like bears start with the conclusion that everything is screwed up and just twist evidence to support that conclusion.
I agree, by the way.
I guess we are about to see. In 25 years of following a bunch of different factors in the stock market, I have never seen so many flags pointing towards a fairly significant stock market drop.
1.) 10yr/2yr yield curve un-inversion.
2.) Past graph of SP500 vs precipitous drops in interest rate (we started this yesterday).
3.) BRK cashing out like they always do before other crashes (see graph of 08). This time their cash pile is 10X more.
So, I guess what you bulls are saying is "this time is different", right? LOL
1.) 10yr/2yr yield curve un-inversion.
2.) Past graph of SP500 vs precipitous drops in interest rate (we started this yesterday).
3.) BRK cashing out like they always do before other crashes (see graph of 08). This time their cash pile is 10X more.
So, I guess what you bulls are saying is "this time is different", right? LOL
You could very well be right. Like Mark Twain (?) said, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.Bonfire97 said:
I guess we are about to see. In 25 years of following a bunch of different factors in the stock market, I have never seen so many flags pointing towards a fairly significant stock market drop.
1.) 10yr/2yr yield curve un-inversion.
2.) Past graph of SP500 vs precipitous drops in interest rate (we started this yesterday).
3.) BRK cashing out like they always do before other crashes (see graph of 08). This time their cash pile is 10X more.
So, I guess what you bulls are saying is "this time is different", right? LOL
I believe the economy is headed for recession (as it by definition ALWAYS is), but we don't know the timing. We may have another 3-4 years with a decent to good economy and stock market. By pulling out of it now, you can do serious damage to your financial situation if you're wrong (opportunity cost). So, while it's sensible to make your portfolio more conservative (or even hedge, as I do), "going to cash" often punishes the timid.
Check money supply. Ya it's actually different
Bonfire97 said:
I guess we are about to see. In 25 years of following a bunch of different factors in the stock market, I have never seen so many flags pointing towards a fairly significant stock market drop.
1.) 10yr/2yr yield curve un-inversion.
2.) Past graph of SP500 vs precipitous drops in interest rate (we started this yesterday).
3.) BRK cashing out like they always do before other crashes (see graph of 08). This time their cash pile is 10X more.
So, I guess what you bulls are saying is "this time is different", right? LOL
Define significant drop. The S&P was down over 20%+ in late 2022. It was down for most of 2023, and was down 10% a few months ago. We are now at all time highs today.
The last two times the FED dropped 50bps from a pause after a period of hiking, the market dropped 40% and 50%. I would think that's the thesis for worry.Petrino1 said:Bonfire97 said:
I guess we are about to see. In 25 years of following a bunch of different factors in the stock market, I have never seen so many flags pointing towards a fairly significant stock market drop.
1.) 10yr/2yr yield curve un-inversion.
2.) Past graph of SP500 vs precipitous drops in interest rate (we started this yesterday).
3.) BRK cashing out like they always do before other crashes (see graph of 08). This time their cash pile is 10X more.
So, I guess what you bulls are saying is "this time is different", right? LOL
Define significant drop. The S&P was down over 20%+ in late 2022. It was down for most of 2023, and was down 10% a few months ago. We are now at all time highs today.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Correct.
Yukon, your initials are not C.R. by chance, are they? You're response is very similar to someone I know.
No sir
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