Bonfire97 said:

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I hope they will allow this massive correction to take place. Let those who have been responsible and good stewards buy assets on the cheap and let these well lobbied corps get bought out on sale.

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There will probably be no "massive" correction, at least not immediately. Here is how I see this going:

The fed is going to jump in with a bunch of rate cuts and give the market a short term bounce. It will take a few months for those to take effect. Correspondingly, the 10/2 yield curve will un-invert signaling a recession. The smart money will know this and pull further out of the market. Around the same time, the interest rate cuts will trickle down into the economy causing a pop in the inflation numbers. People will panic and sell even more. That will be the bottom and will be when you should dump it all back in. Who knows on the timing.

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I don't know about the rate cuts. More than likely, we get one in September, but after that...man...who knows.

I got this figured out. I'll call California psychics and ask 'em when the bottom will be.

Pelosi is a psycho psychic now?

wasntme said:

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Pelosi is a psycho psychic now? an insider trader

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There will be a good opportunity in the coming months for folks sitting on the sidelines. I follow a very simple approach to calling the market bottom. When all the people you go to lunch with at work who are typically gloating about their stock market gains and all the money they are spending hit the "frustration and anxiety" point and start talking about "how they will never retire" and similar things, you know it's time to put your money to work. We are not there yet. Old timers who went through 1999 and 2008 know exactly what I am talking about.

Best thing that happened to my investments was divorce. Short term, my investment accounts took a hit, but long term returns have been fantastic!!!!

Seriously tho, the one bit of advice I'd give a young person is be triple careful about the financial mental makeup of the person you marry.

Bonfire97 said:

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the fed is threading the needle here trying to stick a soft landing.

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The fed is in a trap. I keep reading articles this morning about 50 bp rate cuts, emergency rate cuts. Any moves like that are going to dial up inflation. Any lack of moves like that, and the market is going to continue to tumble. The reckoning from massive QE starting in 2008 that extended a bull market way past its prime is here.

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I don't think this is correct. The Fed can cut to 4% and still be restrictive.

I don't think they will have an emergency meeting to cut rates. It would look like a panic move and that they are responding to the market vs the economy.

The good news about a weakening economy with high rates is you have room to respond. Recessions when rates are low are tough.

We really need to get energy prices down. That will reduce inflation and spur economic growth.

Bonfire97 said:

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There will be a good opportunity in the coming months for folks sitting on the sidelines. I follow a very simple approach to calling the market bottom. When all the people you go to lunch with at work who are typically gloating about their stock market gains and all the money they are spending hit the "frustration and anxiety" point and start talking about "how they will never retire" and similar things, you know it's time to put your money to work. We are not there yet. Old timers who went through 1999 and 2008 know exactly what I am talking about.

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I remember reading the newspaper at the breakfast table with my wife in 2008 and saying…There is not one positive article in this whole paper…maybe we have hit the bottom.

That was the day to reinvest.

Troglodyte said:

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Bonfire97 said:

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the fed is threading the needle here trying to stick a soft landing.

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The fed is in a trap. I keep reading articles this morning about 50 bp rate cuts, emergency rate cuts. Any moves like that are going to dial up inflation. Any lack of moves like that, and the market is going to continue to tumble. The reckoning from massive QE starting in 2008 that extended a bull market way past its prime is here.

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I don't think this is correct. The Fed can cut to 4% and still be restrictive.

I don't think they will have an emergency meeting to cut rates. It would look like a panic move and that they are responding to the market vs the economy.

The good news about a weakening economy with high rates is you have room to respond. Recessions when rates are low are tough.

We really need to get energy prices down. That will reduce inflation and spur economic growth.

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Arguably the Fed can cut to 2.5/3% and still be restrictive. Real rate of the Fed Funds rate is 3.5% - historically .5% is considered neutral.

I agree, i think they just do .5% cut in September instead.

I don't think we're anything close to a recession. Just a slowing economy... q2 GDP showed continued strong growth. Economy is now feeling the anchor of interest rates, and that will sort it's self out with time.

Energy prices are not high on an inflation adjusted basis by any stretch of the imagination. We will not see mid to late 2010s energy prices for the forseeable future. The time of energy companies destroying value in the name of growth is over. No matter what happens, capital returns to shareholders will drag energy company's ability to increase capex. The new reality is that $70s and $80s is probably healthy market crude oil pricing. It has nothing to do with politics and everything to do with shareholders. The good news is that America arguably benefits from high energy prices as much as it hurts because we are an energy exporter.

Your not wrong on energy companies. But part of it is we do not have a new technogical breakthrough like we did 10 years ago that brough venture capital into the energy market which treated the energy sector like a growth sector. Profitable companies will spend on CAPEX from their own profits, but the main drive going forward will be continued profitability. Companies that aren't turning a profit and don't have runway to get there aren't likely to suddenly take off in stock price. It's adefinitely a different dynamic moving forward than it was 10 years ago.

That said, the person elected can provide huge headwinds OR huge tailwinds to this sector. It does matter.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Your not wrong on energy companies. But part of it is we do not have a new technogical breakthrough like we did 10 years ago that brough venture capital into the energy market which treated the energy sector like a growth sector. Profitable companies will spend on CAPEX from their own profits, but the main drive going forward will be continued profitability. Companies that aren't turning a profit and don't have runway to get there aren't likely to suddenly take off in stock price. It's adefinitely a different dynamic moving forward than it was 10 years ago.

That said, the person elected can provide huge headwinds OR huge tailwinds to this sector. It does matter.

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It does matter in theory. Neither politician is suggesting anything material (just a slogan or two for the illiterate masses) that will provide a head wind or a tail wind.

Political slogans don't change shareholder expectations. And shareholder expectations are well-founded. Oil companies struggled with profitability in the race to the bottom 2010s.

uhh ... is it a good sign when the 2nd largest brokerage firm begging it's customers to deposit cash and securities in exchange for a kickback?

Got to deposit $5m to get that advertised $6k.

Wild timing though on that email blast.

seriously. wasn't Robinhood offering 3%

$6000 is about 1 week of interest on $5M. I would imagine CS makes a crapload of money on securities lending and if you give them $5M not only to charge you transaction fees on plus earn money on the securities lending function...I imagine they earn their money back on you in a day or so.

Media continues stroking us off.

Im confused, has it begun?

It starts slowly and then "all of a sudden"

poof

Wall St is rich again and you're 401k is broke as a joke

Sims said:

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.12% is not much of a kickback when interest rates are what they are currently.

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Yup, been getting a few of those and started thinking they were good deals then actually crunched the numbers vs HYSA and they aren't really good deals at all.

The next thing we'll see is them increase the penalty for early withdrawal of IRA / 401k money.

It'll happen with no warning, no discussion and no debate. Will be buried in some other omnibus bill.

Tex117 said:

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Bonfire97 said:

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I hope they will allow this massive correction to take place. Let those who have been responsible and good stewards buy assets on the cheap and let these well lobbied corps get bought out on sale.

---

There will probably be no "massive" correction, at least not immediately. Here is how I see this going:

The fed is going to jump in with a bunch of rate cuts and give the market a short term bounce. It will take a few months for those to take effect. Correspondingly, the 10/2 yield curve will un-invert signaling a recession. The smart money will know this and pull further out of the market. Around the same time, the interest rate cuts will trickle down into the economy causing a pop in the inflation numbers. People will panic and sell even more. That will be the bottom and will be when you should dump it all back in. Who knows on the timing.

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I don't know about the rate cuts. More than likely, we get one in September, but after that...man...who knows.

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I bet you see three this year.

Wild times. Sounds like we really in for it now.

Tex117 said:

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Im confused, has it begun?

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It began, then ended, but it will begin again !!

AgOutsideAustin said:

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Tex117 said:

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Im confused, has it begun?

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It began, then ended, but it will begin again !!

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world without end

good news for the permabears: if they keep predicting a recession or depression or market collapse, eventually they may be right! then we'll really be sorry for doubting them and tell them they were right all along!

Old McDonald said:

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good news for the permabears: if they keep predicting a recession or depression or market collapse, eventually they may will be right! then we'll really be sorry for doubting them and tell them they were right all along!

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Mocking irony is best when it's done honestly.

I might have been a bit premature... but I still think we are headed for some darker economic times.

Probably not between now and the election, but certainly the clock is ticking.


What John Q Public sees right now is cracks in the foundation...

While the stock market is doing great, covid funding is drying up leaving school districts and gov bureaucracies holding the bag. Starting to see cuts in employment and a tougher job market. Our business is seeing reduction in prices for certain big ticket items that a year ago were unheard of. I talk to other owners of businesses and everyone is very cautious and concerned about the next year or two.

Higher rates are taking its toll on commercial properties, housing, cc debt and even boats (in the market for one currently, but the prices keep dropping).

The stock market has a way of blinding us to the realities of market conditions on the street, but discussions with people on that street makes me realize that there is turbulence just below the surface.

I really do hope I'm wrong and that we are headed for a soft landing...