Japan markets down 10%+
Bitcoin down 8k
Futures shaking
Seatbelts needed today
Bitcoin down 8k
Futures shaking
Seatbelts needed today
And so it begins?
10,818 Views |
65 Replies |
Last: 3 mo ago by Ag92NGranbury
S&P futures down 2.75% as of 6:30am.
Yikes.
Yikes.
Starting to get interested again…. Might pull the tarp off the Yugo soon……..
ugh......
It's a bloodbath out there, but do have to remember the S&P is still up roughly 8% on the year.
I'm closing on a house today and it killing me that I could potentially be missing out on some prime buying opportunities.
in the words of a famous face painter.... 'hold... hold... hold...'CheeseSndwch said:
I'm closing on a house today and it killing me that I could potentially be missing out on some prime buying opportunities.
Anyone else locked out of their accounts?
bull runs never last forever. the fed is threading the needle here trying to stick a soft landing.txaggie_08 said:
It's a bloodbath out there, but do have to remember the S&P is still up roughly 8% on the year.
Dirt 05 said:
Anyone else locked out of their accounts?
I haven't even tried to log in because I'm not trying to time the market.
The fed is in a trap. I keep reading articles this morning about 50 bp rate cuts, emergency rate cuts. Any moves like that are going to dial up inflation. Any lack of moves like that, and the market is going to continue to tumble. The reckoning from massive QE starting in 2008 that extended a bull market way past its prime is here.Quote:
the fed is threading the needle here trying to stick a soft landing.
Don't forget the economy was trending toward recession in 2019 only to be saved by 6 Trillion dollars in government stimulus.Bonfire97 said:The fed is in a trap. I keep reading articles this morning about 50% rate cuts, emergency rate cuts. Any moves like that are going to dial up inflation. Any lack of moves like that, and the market is going to continue to tumble. The reckoning from massive QE starting in 2008 that extended a bull market way past its prime is here.Quote:
the fed is threading the needle here trying to stick a soft landing.
The business cycle will not be repealed...no matter how much money we throw at it.
We are building a home with expected completion in 2 or 3 months. We will finish paying for the home upon completion. We sold enough stock to cover the needed funds 3 or 4 weeks ago, and put stop orders under some of our larger and profitable positions. I didn't anticipate this, but two previous times I did not sell to provide funds that I knew I had need for and didn't want to make the same mistake.CheeseSndwch said:
I'm closing on a house today and it killing me that I could potentially be missing out on some prime buying opportunities.
You might still have buying opportunities as even lower prices than you would be paying today.
Bonfire97 said:The fed is in a trap. I keep reading articles this morning about 50% rate cuts, emergency rate cuts. Any moves like that are going to dial up inflation. Any lack of moves like that, and the market is going to continue to tumble. The reckoning from massive QE starting in 2008 that extended a bull market way past its prime is here.Quote:
the fed is threading the needle here trying to stick a soft landing.
I hope they will allow this massive correction to take place. Let those who have been responsible and good stewards buy assets on the cheap and let these well lobbied corps get bought out on sale.
If the correction that is truly needed takes place, we are talking about unwinding the leverage that was thrown into the system since 2008. That will take months and likely years and lead to a long term bear market. EVERYTHING would be crushed. If that's what you are hoping for, you are asking for a depression.Agsrback12 said:Bonfire97 said:The fed is in a trap. I keep reading articles this morning about 50% rate cuts, emergency rate cuts. Any moves like that are going to dial up inflation. Any lack of moves like that, and the market is going to continue to tumble. The reckoning from massive QE starting in 2008 that extended a bull market way past its prime is here.Quote:
the fed is threading the needle here trying to stick a soft landing.
I hope they will allow this massive correction to take place. Let those who have been responsible and good stewards buy assets on the cheap and let these well lobbied corps get bought out on sale.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
No panic selling. What goes down will come up again.
That's one thing everyone could learn from the bitcoin crowd! HODL.GeorgiAg said:
No panic selling. What goes down will come up again.
Except for the 9,000 banks that folded up shop in the Great Depression. And the 25 in 2008 (with much much more only being prevented by a historical theft of the middle class by the FED).GeorgiAg said:
No panic selling. What goes down will come up again.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
You think we are heading into 2008 type situation, or an unwiding of AI and other frothiness?Heineken-Ashi said:Except for the 9,000 banks that folded up shop in the Great Depression. And the 25 in 2008 (with much much more only being prevented by a historical theft of the middle class by the FED).GeorgiAg said:
No panic selling. What goes down will come up again.
not saying you're wrong about this, but it seems like every correction we've had over the last decade has been prematurely hailed as the "great reckoning" for post-GFC quantitative easing. the permabears have cried wolf so many times now that i'm always skeptical when this happens.Bonfire97 said:The reckoning from massive QE starting in 2008 that extended a bull market way past its prime is here.Quote:
the fed is threading the needle here trying to stick a soft landing.
I think 2008 was the finishing move of a 10 year bear market that started with the dot com crash. And that was a lesser degree correction on the all time chart than what is coming. Do I think it's started? It very well could have. But not enough support has broken yet. I can make a case for one more high just as easily as a case that we finish the year in the low 4,000's. Not much certainty right now.Tex117 said:You think we are heading into 2008 type situation, or an unwiding of AI and other frothiness?Heineken-Ashi said:Except for the 9,000 banks that folded up shop in the Great Depression. And the 25 in 2008 (with much much more only being prevented by a historical theft of the middle class by the FED).GeorgiAg said:
No panic selling. What goes down will come up again.
What's happening now with bonds and bond yields along with expectations of a September rate cut by the FED and now calls for an emergency cut is the exact same thing that happened in 2007 from a similar point of FED rate policy. So I'm on high alert. But even then, the initial selloff got a huge bounce before the true bear started.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Interesting...Heineken-Ashi said:I think 2008 was the finishing move of a 10 year bear market that started with the dot com crash. And that was a lesser degree correction on the all time chart than what is coming. Do I think it's started? It very well could have. But not enough support has broken yet. I can make a case for one more high just as easily as a case that we finish the year in the low 4,000's. Not much certainty right now.Tex117 said:You think we are heading into 2008 type situation, or an unwiding of AI and other frothiness?Heineken-Ashi said:Except for the 9,000 banks that folded up shop in the Great Depression. And the 25 in 2008 (with much much more only being prevented by a historical theft of the middle class by the FED).GeorgiAg said:
No panic selling. What goes down will come up again.
What's happening now with bonds and bond yields along with expectations of a September rate cut by the FED and now calls for an emergency cut is the exact same thing that happened in 2008 from a similar point of FED rate policy. So I'm on high alert. But even then, the initial selloff got a huge bounce before the true bear started.
Ag92NGranbury said:
Japan markets down 10%+
Bitcoin down 8k
Futures shaking
Seatbelts needed today
the fact that the NASDAQ has NEVER had a 1000 point drop during any day since 1971,
until today.
that can't be bullish.
I just don't understand this logic.txaggie_08 said:
It's a bloodbath out there, but do have to remember the S&P is still up roughly 8% on the year.
if I was falling without a parachute at 45 miles per hour, but 4 minutes ago was at 70 miles per hour- I'm still falling without a parachute.
when the first lesson of making money is that Wall Street is a FORWARD looking market using forward indicators- who cares if 9 months in the past it was doing well?!
so if I had $1,087,000 in my accounts May 15, and now have $973,567-
I need to remember I still have more than I did 350 days ago?
LMCane said:I just don't understand this logic.txaggie_08 said:
It's a bloodbath out there, but do have to remember the S&P is still up roughly 8% on the year.
if I was falling without a parachute at 45 miles per hour, but 4 minutes ago was at 70 miles per hour- I'm still falling without a parachute.
when the first lesson of making money is that Wall Street is a FORWARD looking market using forward indicators- who cares if 9 months in the past it was doing well?!
so if I had $1,087,000 in my accounts May 15, and now have $973,567-
I need to remember I still have more than I did 350 days ago?
There is so much dumb in this post. We're not even in bear market territory yet. The market doesn't continuously go up - there are pullbacks over time.
Why don't you stick to spamming the politics board instead of the B&I board? You've been bleeding all over TexAgs all morning.
LMCane said:Ag92NGranbury said:
Japan markets down 10%+
Bitcoin down 8k
Futures shaking
Seatbelts needed today
the fact that the NASDAQ has NEVER had a 1000 point drop during any day since 1971,
until today.
that can't be bullish.
1000 points sounds scary. Now do percent drop.
Gordo14 said:LMCane said:Ag92NGranbury said:
Japan markets down 10%+
Bitcoin down 8k
Futures shaking
Seatbelts needed today
the fact that the NASDAQ has NEVER had a 1000 point drop during any day since 1971,
until today.
that can't be bullish.
1000 points sounds scary. Now do percent drop.
Exactly. The NASDAQ lost over 12% on 3/16/2020. Over the past week (not even just today) it's down less than 7%. It's had several worse days in 1987, 2000 and 2008.
15.7% from the high to this morning's low. That's not even a full month.Gordo14 said:LMCane said:Ag92NGranbury said:
Japan markets down 10%+
Bitcoin down 8k
Futures shaking
Seatbelts needed today
the fact that the NASDAQ has NEVER had a 1000 point drop during any day since 1971,
until today.
that can't be bullish.
1000 points sounds scary. Now do percent drop.
You're right that dollar amount means nothing, as its a linear measurement in a logarithmic environment. But what's happened over the last month, and the speed that it's happened should at least be somewhat concerning. The last time we saw this pace of losses was the 3 times in 2022 and before that COVID.
Playing goalie right now probably isn't the best idea. While this could very well end up just being a normal correction, again, the speed and severity of the decline is likely pointing to something else.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Are we seeing a rolling-start market-response to the Iran / Israel mass conflagration event?
Why did the market bottom the last time this threat was out there in April?Stat Monitor Repairman said:
Are we seeing a rolling-start market-response to the Iran / Israel mass conflagration event?
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Threat seems imminent.
Seems like we on round 3 of tit-for-tat.
Seems like we on round 3 of tit-for-tat.
Yep - at it's lows in 2002, a 1000-point NASDAQ drop would have been nearly 50%.txaggie_08 said:Gordo14 said:LMCane said:Ag92NGranbury said:
Japan markets down 10%+
Bitcoin down 8k
Futures shaking
Seatbelts needed today
the fact that the NASDAQ has NEVER had a 1000 point drop during any day since 1971,
until today.
that can't be bullish.
1000 points sounds scary. Now do percent drop.
Exactly. The NASDAQ lost over 12% on 3/16/2020. Over the past week (not even just today) it's down less than 7%. It's had several worse days in 1987, 2000 and 2008.
This is an example of faux-statistics, used as a scare tactic. Silly.
Reminds of the morning shows in the networks, when they talk about some line of storms but headline it with "over 35 million affected!!" because it passes over several states. Looking at you , Al Roker.I bleed maroon said:Yep - at it's lows in 2002, a 1000-point NASDAQ drop would have been nearly 50%.txaggie_08 said:Gordo14 said:LMCane said:Ag92NGranbury said:
Japan markets down 10%+
Bitcoin down 8k
Futures shaking
Seatbelts needed today
the fact that the NASDAQ has NEVER had a 1000 point drop during any day since 1971,
until today.
that can't be bullish.
1000 points sounds scary. Now do percent drop.
Exactly. The NASDAQ lost over 12% on 3/16/2020. Over the past week (not even just today) it's down less than 7%. It's had several worse days in 1987, 2000 and 2008.
This is an example of faux-statistics, used as a scare tactic. Silly.
Well, Lincoln got 1.9M in the popular vote tally in 1860. Which means, Joe Biden beat him by about 79M votes. Clearly Biden is the more popular candidate and there's really no disputing the fact.Aust Ag said:Reminds of the morning shows in the networks, when they talk about some line of storms but headline it with "over 35 million affected!!" because it passes over several states. Looking at you , Al Roker.I bleed maroon said:Yep - at it's lows in 2002, a 1000-point NASDAQ drop would have been nearly 50%.txaggie_08 said:Gordo14 said:LMCane said:Ag92NGranbury said:
Japan markets down 10%+
Bitcoin down 8k
Futures shaking
Seatbelts needed today
the fact that the NASDAQ has NEVER had a 1000 point drop during any day since 1971,
until today.
that can't be bullish.
1000 points sounds scary. Now do percent drop.
Exactly. The NASDAQ lost over 12% on 3/16/2020. Over the past week (not even just today) it's down less than 7%. It's had several worse days in 1987, 2000 and 2008.
This is an example of faux-statistics, used as a scare tactic. Silly.
Exactly. 1000 point drop off of 18,000 is a lot different than a 1,000 point drop off of 5,000.Gordo14 said:LMCane said:Ag92NGranbury said:
Japan markets down 10%+
Bitcoin down 8k
Futures shaking
Seatbelts needed today
the fact that the NASDAQ has NEVER had a 1000 point drop during any day since 1971,
until today.
that can't be bullish.
1000 points sounds scary. Now do percent drop.
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