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Is this a good time to go long energy?

6,407 Views | 42 Replies | Last: 5 mo ago by jagvocate
I bleed maroon
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AG
To each his own, of course, BUT:

I derive value from the stock markets (should be named Active Traders) thread, not because I buy into the analytical philosophy others use, but because of the ideas it surfaces, which often warrant further investigation, using your own toolkit.

As an example, Heineken and I have wildly different views on trading, but he has surfaced numerous candidates for investment that I have followed through on (and I hope I've done the same). I appreciate his bringing ideas and some useful information to the table, and then he'll do his voodoo, and I'll do mine. We can all make money in different ways.
Jabin
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That's a point worth considering.
nortex97
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AG
Leveraged ETF trading long term (holding) doesn't make sense, imho, from the get go, and even less given the cost of borrowing today. Some/most of the other stuff is just noise.

Quote:

With a leveraged ETF, on top of the asset management fees, frictional expenses such as trading costs, and custody fees, you have the interest expense of the debt used to achieve the actual leverage. That means that every moment of every day, interest expense or its effective equivalent is reducing the value of the portfolio.

Let's take a look at one such ETF, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ (Nasdaq: TQQQ), which leverages the Nasdaq-100 3-to-1. If the Nasdaq-100 moves by 1%, TQQQ moves by 3%.

If the market goes sideways, the ETF's shares will lose money, a reality that is exacerbated by the fact that the portfolio rebalances daily. Due to compounding, leveraged ETFs held over the long term can see strikingly different returns than the fund's target. Because these funds reset each day, you can see significant losseseven if the fund itself appears to be showing a gain.
one MEEN Ag
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AG
one MEEN Ag said:

Best time to go long energy was when oil was negative. The second best time is today.
I would like to update my comment from last week to buy the dip.

I will be back next week to say to buy the next dip as well.
halfastros81
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AG
Or just dollar cost average in and don't worry about dips because you believe the long term trend is going to be up.
jagvocate
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AG
One report I saw that as the BRICS+ get going, they'll be trading for commodities (especially oil) in local currencies, and then will buy gold when currency balances get too high. OPEC was meant to be a cartel when everything oil traded in dollars; now that different currencies ---> gold is involved, the incentives will be to pump as much as possible ... oil prices could go lower than expected in the future once BRICS+ gains its real steam

halfastros81
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AG
When will bric's get going tho? I will admit I'm more bullish on nat gas than oil.
jagvocate
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AG
halfastros81 said:

When will bric's get going tho? I will admit I'm more bullish on nat gas than oil.
My best answer is when they can be assured that their payment systems work and can avoid sanction from the USA

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