zagman said:

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CM Trump Voter said:

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TXTransplant said:

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I've been avoiding this thread because I knew it would make me ill.

I'll gross closer to $200k this year than ever before (but won't quite make it). Single, one kid. I do max out my 401k and HSA, so net is significantly less.

No car payment and my mortgage (not including taxes and insurance) is $1500/month.

And I'm sitting here worried about my utility bill doubling and my property taxes going up. And I felt slightly guilty for paying $350 to upgrade us to business class on our 5 hour overnight flight.

Geez…I'm doing it wrong.

Like others, I'm wondering where the $ for real estate is coming from. My 'hood has always been on the high end…lots of $500-$700k homes with 2-3 kids and SAHMs. But those houses are now $900-$1M. I'm a PhD engineer and do well for my education/years of experience. Lots of neighbors work in the same industry as I do. It's hard for me to imagine someone in engineering/finance who isn't a VP is making much more than that. But maybe I'm way off.

There was a 2400 sq ft just up from me that recently went under contract in two days for $700k+

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Agreed. I have no idea where people get their money. I'm a successful professional. I do pretty well. My spouse works. We have access to a significant inheritance. We don't live crazy - our extravagances are ordering a prime movie or grubhubbing after a long day once a week or so.

We live in a modest (nicer than I grew up) house in an mid upper middle class neighborhood. One car payment.

I see people rolling in brand new suburbans and living in $700k houses, and it appears that only the husband works. Trips to Disney, etc.

I took a little jaunt this weekend and the wealth in some of these cities is beyond belief. People dropping cash like crazy in Neimans, eating out everywhere. And right down the road there are tent cities.

Something weird is going on.

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It's actually obvious, but most refuse to believe that economics always wins.

Starting with 2010, we've been in the most parabolic bull run in history. Cratering debt rates to historical lows coupled with endless quantitative easing and exploding direct payments of fiscal stimulus direct into pockets.

It isn't just real estate that's in trouble. It's everything. We live in a public and corporate debt bubble, a credit bubble, an equities bubble (really deflated but showing signs it wants to expand one last time before popping), a crypto bubble (same), etc.

2008 happened when one bubble popped. The next one will be all bubbles popping simultaneously. Economics always wins.

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zagman said:

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CM Trump Voter said:

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TXTransplant said:

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I've been avoiding this thread because I knew it would make me ill.

I'll gross closer to $200k this year than ever before (but won't quite make it). Single, one kid. I do max out my 401k and HSA, so net is significantly less.

No car payment and my mortgage (not including taxes and insurance) is $1500/month.

And I'm sitting here worried about my utility bill doubling and my property taxes going up. And I felt slightly guilty for paying $350 to upgrade us to business class on our 5 hour overnight flight.

Geez…I'm doing it wrong.

Like others, I'm wondering where the $ for real estate is coming from. My 'hood has always been on the high end…lots of $500-$700k homes with 2-3 kids and SAHMs. But those houses are now $900-$1M. I'm a PhD engineer and do well for my education/years of experience. Lots of neighbors work in the same industry as I do. It's hard for me to imagine someone in engineering/finance who isn't a VP is making much more than that. But maybe I'm way off.

There was a 2400 sq ft just up from me that recently went under contract in two days for $700k+

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Agreed. I have no idea where people get their money. I'm a successful professional. I do pretty well. My spouse works. We have access to a significant inheritance. We don't live crazy - our extravagances are ordering a prime movie or grubhubbing after a long day once a week or so.

We live in a modest (nicer than I grew up) house in an mid upper middle class neighborhood. One car payment.

I see people rolling in brand new suburbans and living in $700k houses, and it appears that only the husband works. Trips to Disney, etc.

I took a little jaunt this weekend and the wealth in some of these cities is beyond belief. People dropping cash like crazy in Neimans, eating out everywhere. And right down the road there are tent cities.

Something weird is going on.

---

It's actually obvious, but most refuse to believe that economics always wins.

Starting with 2010, we've been in the most parabolic bull run in history. Cratering debt rates to historical lows coupled with endless quantitative easing and exploding direct payments of fiscal stimulus direct into pockets.

It isn't just real estate that's in trouble. It's everything. We live in a public and corporate debt bubble, a credit bubble, an equities bubble (really deflated but showing signs it wants to expand one last time before popping), a crypto bubble (same), etc.

2008 happened when one bubble popped. The next one will be all bubbles popping simultaneously. Economics always wins.

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EclipseAg said:

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I always assumed that a lot of people who splurged on big purchases or trips were folks who earned significant regular bonuses.

They live off their regular income and then when the bonus hits, they buy the boat or take the trip. They know it's coming and they plan for it.

My bonuses were always like Clark Griswold's so I just enjoyed the jelly.

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ac04 said:

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a wise man once taught me that mo money often leads to mo problems.

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BenTheGoodAg said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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The freight train I think many don't see coming is we're close to the tipping point with wages and tech advancement where employing the service industry -- a sector that makes up a very large part of our economy -- simply doesn't make sense anymore. If a McDonald's employee wants $15/hour to work, then it makes far more sense to replace them with automation and downsize the # of employees needed per store. Still a few years off from a serious threat, but it's coming.

Ditto food service delivery (doordash, ubereats, etc...). Whether it's automated drivers, drones, or whatever -- those gig jobs will be replaced with technology. Then what? Are all of those people going to get jobs at Amazon -- a company that is constantly working on it's own automation-to-replace-employees?

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I do understand the logic of your position, and it sort of creates a pucker-factor about the future state of the economy. However, I think history has some positive perspective worth considering. There's been a significant trend of unskilled labor that has been replaced by automation of the past century and a half. Just start by looking at the labor that used to be required to farm a single acre. As that industry matured - labor moved to industrial centers and factories. As factories started to use more automation, people moved into other service industries. As computer technology matured, people were displaced there, too, but new opportunities were also created.

I think there's reason to believe that the economy will continue to adapt and generate new opportunities for people. Maybe it won't be easy, but I do think there will be a prevailing need for both new skilled and unskilled labor moving forward that we can't define today.

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Proposition Joe said:

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I just think when you see fast food workers demanding/getting $15/hour at the same time you see people starting to complain about food prices... it's just an untenable scenario.

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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Lots of the universal income zealots want this to continue. It's absolutely sci-fi and scares the crap out of me but the concept makes sense.

If everything becomes automated, price of goods and "need" for labor SHOULD drop dramatically.

Many are calling it the 2nd renaissance, but I see it being far more dystopian because you can't just leave poor and uneducated people in **** covered streets and pre-historic looking villages.

Interesting times ahead and goes to show that people need to learn a damn skill.

Back to the thread, I think a big part of this is the run-up in wages in the last 2-3 years.

A position like mine did NOT pay what it does today. Granted, I feel like that's because the demand for the skillset has increased considerably and I have a ton of experience in the field but still…

Definitely feel something weird going on. It's getting bad here in the US, think what the rest of the world is going to look like in a year.

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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Lots of the universal income zealots want this to continue. It's absolutely sci-fi and scares the crap out of me but the concept makes sense.

If everything becomes automated, price of goods and "need" for labor SHOULD drop dramatically.

Many are calling it the 2nd renaissance, but I see it being far more dystopian because you can't just leave poor and uneducated people in **** covered streets and pre-historic looking villages.

Interesting times ahead and goes to show that people need to learn a damn skill.

Back to the thread, I think a big part of this is the run-up in wages in the last 2-3 years.

A position like mine did NOT pay what it does today. Granted, I feel like that's because the demand for the skillset has increased considerably and I have a ton of experience in the field but still…

Definitely feel something weird going on. It's getting bad here in the US, think what the rest of the world is going to look like in a year.

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Jet Black said:

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Saw an article today, this may not be exact, but the gist was 50% of Americans with kids can no longer afford food for their family with out the child tax credit, which ended a few months ago.

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Sea Speed said:

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Jet Black said:

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Saw an article today, this may not be exact, but the gist was 50% of Americans with kids can no longer afford food for their family with out the child tax credit, which ended a few months ago.

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Id like to see that. Think you could find it again?

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Jet Black said:

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Sea Speed said:

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Jet Black said:

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Saw an article today, this may not be exact, but the gist was 50% of Americans with kids can no longer afford food for their family with out the child tax credit, which ended a few months ago.

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Id like to see that. Think you could find it again?

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https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/03/48-percent-of-families-cant-afford-enough-food-without-child-tax-credit.html

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Pahdz said:

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Construction is always hiring

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Topher17 said:

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Living a similar reality here in Texas. My wife and I do quite well, but unless we want to burden ourselves with a 450k+ mortgage there is almost nothing available. I would have to commute over an hour each way to afford a starter home at this point and that isn't something I'm willing to do. Rentals are crazy as well with the jump in property taxes many landlords have been seeing.

As for the $15/hr low skill workers at places like McDonalds or whatever, there will be a need for fewer with modern tech, but we also have a shrinking workforce as boomers age out. The fight for workers right now is insane and while that may cool if the economy overall cools, in the long run I expect the labor market to remain quite competitive and advantageous to those willing to job hop.

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LMCane said:

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Pahdz said:

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Construction is always hiring

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Not this month!

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