SoupNazi2001 said:
AggiEE said:
SoupNazi2001 said:
RangerRick9211 said:
PearlJammin said:
RangerRick9211 said:
PearlJammin said:
Just had baby #6. It was quite the surprise because there was a 10 year gap between #5 and #6. I'm 44 and wife is 43. She stays home.
Have a mid-level management job with one of the best companies in the world. Save about 50% of gross income and currently saving for a lakehouse for the growing family to congregate during Holidays, etc. I'm very happy with my job but want to get out in nature more, especially when grandkids come along.
The thing I worry about most is the inevitable financial collapse of this country. I don't mean to diverge from this thread, but many of the savers on this thread will likely need to find work when the SHTF. Our leaders are blowing multiple Trillions annually and acting like everything is OK. It is not.
Wow. Quite the diverge.
Why are you saving 50% of gross into a system doomed to fail?
Not too hard to understand. Good luck to you.
Certainly, godspeed to you. But seriously, what's your vehicle? Guns and tampons for the apocalypse? Straight cash isn't any better than equities in a nuclear scenario. They're both toast.
I have an incredible bias. I'm leveraged on the Qs and SPY. My thesis is that debt, Fed, inflation et al. won't be a hindrance in my lifetime and will be a sustaining tailwind. I'll unwind at RE and we're working to a healthy, leg-up nest egg for our kid.
Look this is the problem the two scenarios aren't Zombie Apocalypse or Raging Bull Market. The problem is people especially the younger generation think stocks basically only go up. There is a very real scenario where stocks basically don't go up for a decade or more. Look at Japan after the 80s once their debt to GDP skyrocketed. That is a very real scenario here.
If you are globally diversified this is unlikely to happen
Stocks are heavily correlated these days. See 2008 and 2020 for recent examples. They all declined together.
Stocks being highly correlated does not disprove my point. Just because stocks tend to move in the same direction, does not mean the magnitude and dispersion of returns is the same.
Look at International stocks, for instance. They've had somewhat of a "dead decade". Sure, on a day-to-day basis they tend to move in the same direction as the US market, but US stocks have annualized returns of more than double International stocks this past decade (13% vs 5%). That's a wide dispersion of returns.
If you look closer at the US out-performance, you will notice compelling arguments that suggest that much of this is not due to fundamental earnings growth being massively better. In fact, 75% of it is just a change in valuations (speculative increase in price).
Read an interesting article by Bloomberg about this. He argues that the US should have tracked more closely to the International stock market coming out of the great financial crisis of 2008. Instead, the two diverged. Now in 2021, the difference in CAPE for US and International is some of the largest that we've seen. If you believe that earnings ultimately matter, and that the valuations of stocks eventually mean-revert, then investing globally is a promising move right now.
Robert Shiller argues that the higher valuations of US stocks (30-35 at the present moment, depending on the metric used) is justified due to low interest rates. However, if that were true, why are International stocks trading at half the valuations (close to 18)? Interest rates in many international countries is even lower than the US. Either US is wildly overvalued, or International is wildly undervalued.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-11/investors-risk-being-shipwrecked-on-shiller-s-cape