I agree the news is baked it. But when does scarcity begin to play a role in price moves
The other day Larry Fink in a seminar mentioned a hypothetical scenario of sovereign wealth funds increasing their holding from 1-2% to like 3-5%, and said that news would drive price up to $700K (IF they all did that).
Same concept with a US buying program, that would likely create global FOMO. That's why it's potentially MASSIVE. Conversely it could potentially crush MSTR and other highly leveraged holders if Congress rejects.
I really do think the BTC buying program is a major fork in the road. I wouldn't be surprised to see the FOMC lobby congress against this one.
I disagree. This opens an entire new door and market untapped.
I didn't say it wasn't a big deal for BTC, just that it's already been realized in price. Not sure what you are disagreeing with, but guess we will see.
Thought you were implying it wasn't massive by saying bsr would be massive. I think this is a very very big deal.
And I doubt it's baked in. There's a lot of money sitting in CDs that could potentially roll into BTC probably in the next 6 months easier and faster than ever before.
I hope you do well. Just remember it's never a bad time to take some profits, maybe go net free, hedge, trail stop etc.
I think there is more upside, but I'm also concerned longterm when I look at what Bitcoin was invented to be, and what it has become. I understand why that is unimportant when making a profit is the priority.
We criticize Blackrock for inventing ESG, partnering with gov in crisis to vulture assets, hoard US housing, sell out America for China, etc......but when they become the biggest holder of BTC, we celebrate, come on in!!
I am still high on BTC but nothing beats the good ol stock market.
Bitcoin has annualized at 74% since inception, so something beats the stock market.
Since October 2021, your money would be worth more in POWL stock than BTC.
You are cherry picking dates.
Not cherry picking anything. Just stating that if you would have bought $100 of BTC at its 2022 bottom, and on that same day bought POWL, your POWL would be higher in value today.
I have participated in both and currently own BTC. This was not an attempt to discredit BTC. Just to show that while BTC is the best performing asset since it's creation, there are plenty of avenues to explode wealth and new opportunities come about every day. Finding them, taking the risk on them, and staying true through thick and thin is the tough part. And some luck from time to time. But the days of BTC exploding wealth are likely in the rearview, at least for now. $100k to $200k is far different than $10k to $64k. It's going to likely take you a lot longer holding BTC to make similar gains as it did in previous years.
I am still high on BTC but nothing beats the good ol stock market.
Bitcoin has annualized at 74% since inception, so something beats the stock market.
Since October 2021, your money would be worth more in POWL stock than BTC.
You are cherry picking dates.
Not cherry picking anything. Just stating that if you would have bought $100 of BTC at its 2022 bottom, and on that same day bought POWL, your POWL would be higher in value today.
I have participated in both and currently own BTC. This was not an attempt to discredit BTC. Just to show that while BTC is the best performing asset since it's creation, there are plenty of avenues to explode wealth and new opportunities come about every day. Finding them, taking the risk on them, and staying true through thick and thin is the tough part. And some luck from time to time. But the days of BTC exploding wealth are likely in the rearview, at least for now. $100k to $200k is far different than $10k to $64k. It's going to likely take you a lot longer holding BTC to make similar gains as it did in previous years.
As an asset class, it will probably be the best performing over the next ten years, just like the previous ten.
I agree the news is baked it. But when does scarcity begin to play a role in price moves
The other day Larry Fink in a seminar mentioned a hypothetical scenario of sovereign wealth funds increasing their holding from 1-2% to like 3-5%, and said that news would drive price up to $700K (IF they all did that).
Same concept with a US buying program, that would likely create global FOMO. That's why it's potentially MASSIVE. Conversely it could potentially crush MSTR and other highly leveraged holders if Congress rejects.
I really do think the BTC buying program is a major fork in the road. I wouldn't be surprised to see the FOMC lobby congress against this one.
How highly leveraged is MSTR? What amount of leverage they should have instead?
JUST IN: BlackRock has filed for “in-kind redemption” for their Bitcoin ETF, meaning investors can redeem their shares for actual Bitcoin instead of cash. pic.twitter.com/6vw4dONSbf
Got some bitcoin and want to play options or anything else you can do with a stock, turn it into IBIT
Likewise, I think to has to offer some confidence behind IBIT since it can be turned into bitcoin. At the very least, people who say you don't have real bitcoin like a pro bitcoiner will have to find a new shtick
Toshi going nuclear and my analysts indicate it could go a heck of a lot higher
How much higher?
How i'm looking at it. Toshi is the only base token with a coinbase listing. Coinbase will be very eager to have one of their tokens with a prominent sh*tcoin standing.
Comparing to other memes, if you see crap like Bonk and Floki with a billion market cap I could see that being very possible here which is a 2-5x.
How highly leveraged is MSTR? What amount of leverage they should have instead?
The most highly leveraged holder in the world. Go watch some vids of Michael Saylor talking about it. He actually brags about it.
It's nothing personal. It could pay off huge, and as long as MSTR stock doesnt crash, it works. I don't know if it's worthy of praise as some new fail proof "money glitch".
Of course its nothing personal, we're just discussing a company's balance sheet. You stated they are highly leveraged, I'm just asking you to define that. What is their debt to equity ratio? What number should they aim for instead?
Closest (over or under) to the price of the following as an aggregate wins $20 from each competitor (we can put into a BTC escrow on River or somewhere)
What is the price at midnight central Dec 31st 2025 for the following coins
XRP BTC SOL ETH DOGE
I am open to suggestions to clarify rules of engagement
but, in my mind it works like this. if we have 20 competitors whoever is closest for BTC gets 20...19...18... and then the same for XRP...ETH...DOGE
Of course its nothing personal, we're just discussing a company's balance sheet. You stated they are highly leveraged, I'm just asking you to define that. What is their debt to equity ratio? What number should they aim for instead?
Do you disagree and think they aren't highly leveraged relative to peers?
You want to quiz me on their balance sheet for a gotcha. I don't care about the details of their varying convertible bond agreements relative to price of BTC at any given point. It's simple. Their stock price crashes hard, its game over. Otherwise it's not. Didn't think that was controversial. Leverage works both ways.
Of course its nothing personal, we're just discussing a company's balance sheet. You stated they are highly leveraged, I'm just asking you to define that. What is their debt to equity ratio? What number should they aim for instead?
Do you disagree and think they aren't highly leveraged relative to peers?
You want to quiz me on their balance sheet for a gotcha. I don't care about the details of their varying convertible bond agreements relative to price of BTC at any given point. It's simple. Their stock price crashes hard, its game over. Otherwise it's not. Didn't think that was controversial. Leverage works both ways.
Which peers should we compare their leverage to? I genuinely want to know what you consider highly leveraged.
I'm not attempting any gotchas, I'm trying to engage with you on a topic you brought up using a very basic metric.
"If the stock price crashes hard it's game over" is insight I can get from any Uber driver or fast food worker. Is there anything factual you can add to this thread regarding MSTR's current leverage? Since you brought it up. Real numbers, not smiley faces and gifs
Which peers should we compare their leverage to? I genuinely want to know what you consider highly leveraged.
I'm not attempting any gotchas, I'm trying to engage with you on a topic you brought up using a very basic metric.
"If the stock price crashes hard it's game over" is insight I can get from any Uber driver or fast food worker. Is there anything factual you can add to this thread regarding MSTR's current leverage? Since you brought it up. Real numbers, not smiley faces and gifs
I'll concede the animated gif was too far, that's me speculating that (a) significant bitcoin correction (b) would cause MSTR to death spiral. Not a prediction, but a possibility, IMO.
Peers might be other miners or equities with biz models that make them proxies for bitcoin. I think MSTR D/E is 1.3 recently. I can't predict how leveraged they will be at the time of any hypothetical BTC crash. I also don't know if convertible bonds go into the "debt" or some other liability line for similar ratio. I just know the denominator is the same, MSTR equity, whose value traces BTC like a leveraged ETF, not ONLY up, but also down.
Total Obligation / MSTR equity.....I'd say 3, 5 or higher would be troublesome number. Selling BTC in the green to reduce the numerator isn't something I see Saylor doing. I think he's averaged at $60K and rising, bc he brags about buying BTC at highs instead of pullbacks.
Saylor talks about the convertible bonds as being like "buying an ETF without downside risk". Then he also says that "if BTC went to one penny, bond holders would be made whole with shares of MSTR." Those are 2 completely conflicting statements. Even if there was just a 40-50% BTC correction, that could be a 80-90% correction in MSTR. We often see a move like that get shorted off exchanges and into Ch11, where bond holders would get their discounted assets (BTC), instead of worthless stock.
He also thinks reverse mortaging your house to buy BTC is a good idea. I really think there are better BTC advocates than Saylor. That's it. Long winded. Not a BTC basher, but pretty clear MSTR has unprecedented leverage at moment. They could easily change course tho in future. Like pulling equity out of your house then buying it back with cash left over.
