Gordo14 said:

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Bag said:

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jetch17 said:

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Ballsy. Wheeling APC assets before a deal is done

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/occidental-inks-deal-to-sell-anadarkos-africa-assets-to-total.html

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Imo an announcement like this is bush league and it seems a bit desperate to announce selling off assets before you have been even named the suitor. I could be wrong but seems a bit out of place

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They're just showing their shareholders that they have a plan forward and are ready to execute on day one.

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They no longer require shareholder approval

fairviewcrew said:

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What do you want to play for?

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Bottle of bourbon work for you?

Bag said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Bag said:

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jetch17 said:

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Ballsy. Wheeling APC assets before a deal is done

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/occidental-inks-deal-to-sell-anadarkos-africa-assets-to-total.html

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Imo an announcement like this is bush league and it seems a bit desperate to announce selling off assets before you have been even named the suitor. I could be wrong but seems a bit out of place

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They're just showing their shareholders that they have a plan forward and are ready to execute on day one.

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They no longer require shareholder approval

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Having shareholder confidence is critical whether it comes to a vote or not. Otherwise the executive team could lose control of the company.

I'll be really interested to see what happens with WES. That's probably another 7B, give or take, with potentially the opportunity to offload some G&A and simplify integration/operations going forward as well. If they get that done more-or-less concurrently with closing on APC, this is going to look brilliant even though I'm not a huge fan of the Buffet capital cost.

Irish- bottle of bourbon it is.

My contention- Vickie will not be the CEO in one year, so we will call it 5/6/20 to be official.

fairviewcrew said:

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Irish- bottle of bourbon it is.

My contention- Vickie will not be the CEO in one year, so we will call it 5/6/20 to be official.

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Sounds good! Deal!

IrishTxAggie said:

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fairviewcrew said:

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Irish- bottle of bourbon it is.

My contention- Vickie will not be the CEO in one year, so we will call it 5/6/20 to be official.

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Sounds good! Deal!

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You guys are going top shelf, right?

My range is $50-100... so good bourbon

fairviewcrew said:

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My range is $50-100... so good bourbon

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WhistlePig

Was rumored this morning but now official. APC favors Oxy deal over Chevron: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/06/business/energy-environment/anadarko-occidental-chevron.html

There was no choice without CVX bumping up their bid

As many have said, this deal just doesn't make sense to me for Oxy. Like buying th me whole neighborhood just because you really like 1 house.

Blanton's > WhistlePig

jmcfar_98 said:

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Blanton's > WhistlePig

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depends on if you prefer Rye Whiskey or Bourbon

DRE06 said:

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As many have said, this deal just doesn't make sense to me for Oxy. Like buying th me whole neighborhood just because you really like 1 house.

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They are worried about getting taken out themselves. Buying Anadarko makes them too big to acquire.

DRE06 said:

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As many have said, this deal just doesn't make sense to me for Oxy. Like buying th me whole neighborhood just because you really like 1 house.

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I think it's a little better than that. On one hand, oxy is making some pretty cool moves to get this across the finish line, and I'm enjoying the hell out of this. On the other hand, if chevron wants to beat this bid, they can easily do it. It's competitive enough now that both companies should be a little afraid of winning. I'm glad that I'm watching from the sidelines and not making the call.

OXY is not worried about getting taken out...

They have a CF / payout ratio problem on their dividend.... currently mid 30% of all CF goes to the divi. This is an unsustainably high ratio.

So they are going after APC because they have meaningful FCF today (plus a very bloated G&A budget)... so they can improve upon what APc has done. Yes APCs Permian position is attractive and OXY can do better... but there is a reason that OXY is so desperate to get APC (bc they are the only independent w/ meaningful FCF today and they have a lower than average base decline). COP and EOG have FCF but cop too big and eog would be dilutive and not really improving what they've done. MRO has small FCF but not great portfolio.


PXD CXO NBl FANG - not meaningful FCF today

fairviewcrew said:

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OXY is not worried about getting taken out...

They have a CF / payout ratio problem on their dividend.... currently mid 30% of all CF goes to the divi. This is an unsustainably high ratio.

So they are going after APC because they have meaningful FCF today (plus a very bloated G&A budget)... so they can improve upon what APc has done. Yes APCs Permian position is attractive and OXY can do better... but there is a reason that OXY is so desperate to get APC (bc they are the only independent w/ meaningful FCF today and they have a lower than average base decline). COP and EOG have FCF but cop too big and eog would be dilutive and not really improving what they've done. MRO has small FCF but not great portfolio.


PXD CXO NBl FANG - not meaningful FCF today

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I tink yo lft ot som letrs.

fairviewcrew said:

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OXY is not worried about getting taken out...

They have a CF / payout ratio problem on their dividend.... currently mid 30% of all CF goes to the divi. This is an unsustainably high ratio.

So they are going after APC because they have meaningful FCF today (plus a very bloated G&A budget)... so they can improve upon what APc has done. Yes APCs Permian position is attractive and OXY can do better... but there is a reason that OXY is so desperate to get APC (bc they are the only independent w/ meaningful FCF today and they have a lower than average base decline). COP and EOG have FCF but cop too big and eog would be dilutive and not really improving what they've done. MRO has small FCF but not great portfolio.


PXD CXO NBl FANG - not meaningful FCF today

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I know for a fact they are worried about being taken over. Oxy's G&A expenses are a big reason why they are a takeover target (~$6 a bbl last I saw - most independents run at ~$2/bbl). Everyone below about EOG in size has to be worried about being taken over.

Gordo14 said:

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fairviewcrew said:

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OXY is not worried about getting taken out...

They have a CF / payout ratio problem on their dividend.... currently mid 30% of all CF goes to the divi. This is an unsustainably high ratio.

So they are going after APC because they have meaningful FCF today (plus a very bloated G&A budget)... so they can improve upon what APc has done. Yes APCs Permian position is attractive and OXY can do better... but there is a reason that OXY is so desperate to get APC (bc they are the only independent w/ meaningful FCF today and they have a lower than average base decline). COP and EOG have FCF but cop too big and eog would be dilutive and not really improving what they've done. MRO has small FCF but not great portfolio.


PXD CXO NBl FANG - not meaningful FCF today

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I know for a fact they are worried about being taken over. Oxy's G&A expenses are a big reason why they are a takeover target (~$6 a bbl last I saw - most independents run at ~$2/bbl). Everyone below about EOG in size has to be worried about being taken over.

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I'm not sure comparing oxy to independents is fair. There is a lot more G&A required (per barrel of production) when you have midstream and downstream assets and upstream assets on multiple continents than if you are a pure Permian player. Not saying oxy isn't bloated as I have not studied it at all, just saying they have a more complicated business than Pioneer or Concho and a $/bbl comparison is not a good metric.

Goose06 said:

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Gordo14 said:

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fairviewcrew said:

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OXY is not worried about getting taken out...

They have a CF / payout ratio problem on their dividend.... currently mid 30% of all CF goes to the divi. This is an unsustainably high ratio.

So they are going after APC because they have meaningful FCF today (plus a very bloated G&A budget)... so they can improve upon what APc has done. Yes APCs Permian position is attractive and OXY can do better... but there is a reason that OXY is so desperate to get APC (bc they are the only independent w/ meaningful FCF today and they have a lower than average base decline). COP and EOG have FCF but cop too big and eog would be dilutive and not really improving what they've done. MRO has small FCF but not great portfolio.


PXD CXO NBl FANG - not meaningful FCF today

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I know for a fact they are worried about being taken over. Oxy's G&A expenses are a big reason why they are a takeover target (~$6 a bbl last I saw - most independents run at ~$2/bbl). Everyone below about EOG in size has to be worried about being taken over.

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I'm not sure comparing oxy to independents is fair. There is a lot more G&A required (per barrel of production) when you have midstream and downstream assets and upstream assets on multiple continents than if you are a pure Permian player. Not saying oxy isn't bloated as I have not studied it at all, just saying they have a more complicated business than Pioneer or Concho and a $/bbl comparison is not a good metric.

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Sure. I don't disagree they need higher G&A than an independent. I'm just telling you why Oxy is worried about being taken over. That plus their dividend is so high it really eats into their ability to grow production. They would be in a much better place if their yield was more like $.60 a share every quarter. Of course they can't really lower the dividend at this point.

With all these moves, does Oxy still have anything left in the tank if Chevron does up its bid? This has a little bit of the feeling of pulling out all the stops to go for the knockout, but if they don't, can they keep going?

I don't dispute that OXYs G&A is very high - but their valuation is high too.... I've heard the rumors about them doing this to keep XOM from buying them. I don't think there's much truth behind them. I just don't think any major can buy OXY given The high valuation it trades at (can't make the accretion math as easily as APC). That's a great way to get a BoD to approve a takeover that stretches their B/S... get the BOD members fearful of losing their Cushy 250k/year job which requires two weeks of work.

Man that seems like a bit of a stretch. Most likely someone throwing out stuff that sounds cool, even better if from an XOM employee.

How soon until CVX buys XEC?

Oh, don't get me wrong, it sounds ludicrous. But I've heard I from more than a few people that work at two of those companies.

AustinAg008 said:

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How soon until CVX buys XEC?

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Hopefully not for at least another year or two. Not confident after the Anadarko deal fell through.

Oxy on its way to the Netherlands...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/occidental-jet-flown-netherlands-tracking-190921990.html

How has Oxy not blocked tracking of their jet?

Unless it's intentional...

It's intentional

3rdgenAg2010 said:

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Oxy on its way to the Netherlands...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/occidental-jet-flown-netherlands-tracking-190921990.html

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Hearing that CVX has announced they will back out

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/05/09/chevron-will-not-raise-offer-for-anadarko-petroleum-company-says.html