Now that we are into 2017, there seems to be some strong resistance around 20,000 DOW. It more specifically it seems to be at 19,800.

Are we still a yellow/pause for new capital injections pending Trump's inauguration?

And of course it break 19,800 after I write my post. You're all welcome.

Here we go again.

Please translate for the less technical investor...

Can I attempt as I think I have learned OA? Realatively flat movement for some time with high volume. Whichever direction we leave this box is the new trend. If we break higher, look out. If we break lower, look out below? How'd I do?

I think I follow that, makes sense. High volume of basically opposing opinions (currently offsetting themselves) and one is going to give way to a trend the other direction. Is that right?

Darvas box forming with high volume?

Side note: crazy to look at how high volume has been lately relative to preceding months

Every post is correct. Dang I'm useless now.

Historically any trends in which way it's more likely to break? More or less likely to be in line with previous trend (in this case a short run up)?

You will never be useless, OA! Keep teaching us, Master.

So in looking at the Dow chart.. Im seeing lows in the current box of 19762 and highs of 19974. Safe to assume that if we close over the 19974, we will break out of box and have a better than most shot at 20k? And after that warning signs start to flash near 19974 if we approach there from above?

Interesting chart from Bloomberg this morning:



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-06/wall-street-is-starting-to-get-nervous-about-all-the-money-pouring-into-u-s-stocks

Here we go...yessir

OA,

Currently sitting with 95% cash in IRAs.

What would your advice be on getting back in?

As an example, 15% drop from all time highs and put 25% in and then average back in at 5% per month over the next 15 months?

Thanks in advance for your advice.

Stagecoach said:

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jake2011 said:

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G Money said:

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OA,

Currently sitting with 95% cash in IRAs.

What would your advice be on getting back in?

As an example, 15% drop from all time highs and put 25% in and then average back in at 5% per month over the next 15 months?

Thanks in advance for your advice.

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If you are expecting a bear market the average is 25 to 30% drop however the last 2 have been more like 50% drops. Divide into 10 buckets and average back in on every 5% drop or something like that and if it never gets to the max decline put the rest in after some time period like 12 to 18 months (average length of bear) after the all time high was reached.

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That advice, it's terrible.


Using hindsight, I would say that much of this thread is filled with that type of advice.

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Sure you did

Potential breakout in progress.

DOW hits 20,000 for the first time ever

Does the break through signal a buying opportunity for the larger up move?

DonaldFDraper said:

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Does the break through signal a buying opportunity for the larger up move?

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Yes.

I completely agree. I agreed for the most part, but began to question that belief based upon this thread and the apparent successes of others from this thread and the other investing thread. I almost moved a significant portion of my portfolio to cash based upon that (along with other things I was reading at the time). When I saw the futures drop the night of the election I was pretty mad at myself. Now seeing what has happened since then, I'm glad I trusted my gut. Could it drop from here? Sure. But nobody really knows, and if I had moved in to a cash position a few months ago, I would be really mad at myself right now.

Back below Dow 20k. Anybody think the rising uncertainty caused by Trump is going to start weighing on markets? That plus high valuations makes me want to move to cash.

DRE06 said:

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G Money said:

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OA,

Currently sitting with 95% cash in IRAs.

What would your advice be on getting back in?

As an example, 15% drop from all time highs and put 25% in and then average back in at 5% per month over the next 15 months?

Thanks in advance for your advice.

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Jeez. You missed out on quite the run. This is exactly why I advovocate buy and whole for 99% of people. If you pull out 95% of your money, you should be savvy enough to have a plan of when and how to get back in.

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Meanwhile, trading the macro moves the last year produced a 48% increase. From the initial Darvis Box breakout posting, along with the "Bet on Trump" posting, the cautionary exit point to that breakout was a whopping .002%. Horrifying!

Whether you came back in with 25%, 50%, or higher you would do so in likely completely different sectors/funds than the previous period, as outlined on the sector winner listings. The markets will give a further opportunity to place other sidelined monies and the returns will, as usual, crush the traditional approach.

Again, I'm not against sanctuary investing, where you simply continue letting 401k contributions average in and not touch/look at them much, if at all. The alternative approach requires time, education, temperament, etc.

Took the words right out of my mouth. Seems to be some revisionist history going on here.

claym711 said:

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how the heck would you be up 50%?

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b/c he's a damn good trader...it's not always making the right call on direction (LOL in my case it's almost never making the right call) it's being a sound trader, he works a strategy for managing winners where he always works to hold remaining shares for free, managing winners and if it the signal fails he bails avoiding loss or at least a big loss...he's got the know how to jump on macro moves and loads big on them, again utilizing his management strategy ...in addition he also works options strategies to put probability in his favor as well as lowering cost basis on shares

I do it through not even pretending to have a clue about which direction things are going to go and am good enough last few years where I went full time (one because I love it and two b/c I needed a change, three b/c I knew I could do it), while my family and I travel around the country....honestly I'm a monkey comparable to Randy and combed out about 30% net from June (when I quit teaching and went full time) through '16. Was on pace for 40% but kind of got tripped up heading into the election with the FBI thing (again I only tend to only lose when I think I know something and let that skew otherwise sound trading), in that case I assumed what about everyone else did about that election. That said I got back to my mechanics and took full advantage of the volatility election night and that played out quite well (and quick). Funny side story and not the point of this post but I called Randy the Friday before the election and he assured me Trump would win, I loved the words but was skeptical, helluva call.

Up 11% net through one month in '17 and doing it with crap volatility...not bragging, really don't care, just saying believe me, if I can do those numbers you damn sure right he did what he said