If you traded SN, you could easily be up 50-100%.
*****MACRO MARKETS*****
45,094 Views |
226 Replies |
Last: 5 yr ago by Premium
There is absolutely no way anyone made a 48% return trading the macro moves (ETFs) posted on this thread. That's just nonsense. I respect the individual stock trades, options, etc. Point was, don't blow smoke. No one made 48% trying to short from 17k and then longing after election.
I think OA is probably very good at what he does, but it doesn't work for everyone. I think that the past few months proves that on a macro level, no one knows anything. Could you make educated guesses and be right more often than not? Probably. But to take anyone's advice as gospel is a bit naive.
Everyone enjoys the discussion of market action. But come on! It is some seriously impressive revisionist history to say that a macro trader is up 50%, when in fact its more like 0% or perhaps -18% depending on how you look at it. Its like listening to Caeser about how he took Brutus down.
Using the post at bottom of page 1, and adding the posts within this thread: Essentially, a 401k investor relying on the advice posted, would have been out of the market until July, then perhaps 50/50 into the market as it went from 18,000 to 18,500, then back to the sidelines after DOW is already back at 18,000. So.an investor following the macro-market advice has effectively been out of the market as the DOW went from 16,865 to the current 19,887 (18%).
Any post where a clear macro-call is made, is below:
On 3/1: (DOW closes at 16,865)
* "I'll stand by the bear market macro call which means we will not reach new market highs above the 18300 market high."
On 3/8: (DOW closes at 16,964)
* "yes, the (DOW value) channel is still heading down regardless of the bouncing around within it".
On 5/6: (DOW closes at 17,740)
* "Of my 262 data points 238 are red. The granular jobs data clicked off the last 32 of the 238. When all 262 go red I post my reversal call and what people do with that info is up to them. What I do with it is trade extremely large volumes with confidence that the direction is set."
On 5/31: (DOW closes at 17,787)
* "Nothing has changed on my macro view on heading to new lows before seeing any new market highs."
On 6/22: (DOW closes at 17,780)
* "I had the highest readings of a market reversal since April 20th. Not 100% still, so if I had to give a percentage confidence it would 95%. Obviously that means I would continue with my current strategy of shorting tops but I would change the sell half on these down moves to 25%. Also, another change is the short strategy being above 18k. We most likely do not see 18k now."
On 6/23: (DOW closes at 18,011)
* "If the vote ends up being BREXIT then the markets are tanking. No fake out move down and then back up with that side."
On 7/4: (DOW closes at 17,949)
* "Spent free time over the last couple of days running all the data and adding in currency devaluations thus far. Result is the reversal indication comes in at 50%. What that means is a net-neutral on market direction. Assuming the DOW breaks 18k again I am calling off the automatic short signal due to this change. In fact, having 4 short opportunities work out to perfection, I will now buy undervalued sectors or stocks if we break 18k. That's the smartest trade opportunity because a break above 18k with these new readings would be a bullish indicator. Yup, I'm willing to predict should we break above 18k it will result in another leg higher in the markets this time. That's what the ripple effect of BREXIT has provided shorter term. A macro change."
On 7/5: (DOW closes at 17,840)
"So you're saying it's a coin flip now on if this is a bear or bull? Just making sure I read you correctly. Tia"
"YESSIR. 50-50 with 18k being the pivot point on the bull side and 16950 on the bear side."
On 7/27: (DOW closes at 18,472)
"As far as macro market once earnings is over I am not seeing anything that changes the current trend. We talked buying the dips and that 100 point down day was just that."
On 8/15: (DOW closes at 18,636)
Question: "how long do yall think this upswing / bull run will last? "
"Until there is absolute certainty Hillary can't lose. Dead serious - like Seth Rich. Snopes block and tackling removed...."
On 9/9: (DOW closes at 18,085)
"I would avoid placing any new or sideline funds into equities for now."
On 9/26: (DOW closes at 18,094)
"The current status on macro actions are still the same. We are in condition yellow from the caution posted on the trader thread. 401k's should be 50%-100% sidelined during this time, depending on individuals factors.
This macro thread was formed in the wake of an Ag asking if now is the time to be putting new capital or 401k's back in (for those who sold on the caution). The response hasn't changed, which was a resounding "Heck no!"
On 9/26: (DOW closes at 18,094)
Question: "For those contributing to things like a ROTH which has a time limit on when contributions can be made, is the best option to apply monthly contributions to something like a money market account and then shift those funds at a later date depending on market signals?"
-"Absolutely."
On 10/11: (DOW closes at 18,329)
"Bottom line - Condition yellow (caution with 401k's sitting it out at appropriate levels) still in effect."
On 10/21: (DOW closes at 18,145)
"If there were a condition between yellow and red I would turn that signal on today."
On 11/2: (DOW closes at 17,959)
"In response to the question on Defcon level the best I can say is we are right between yellow and red."
On 11/3: (DOW closes at 17,930)
"While I've made it clear that we don't know where the next big move takes us yet we are in caution territory and people should have been on the sidelines with nothing but smiles right now."
ON 11/8: (DOW closes at 18,332)
"Lastly, we know this market has become political and that is dangerous. Therefore I have the largest cash position (90%) I've had since July 2015. I'm in absolutely no hurry to implement a strategy unless we have an emotional overreaction to the election."
On 11/10: (DOW closes at 18,807)
Post 1: "If you believe that a CEO President, hellbent on rebuilding the country's infrastrure (CAUSE), will put people back to work (EFFECT) then increase/take positions in the sectors listed yesterday and today. Then look for entry opportunities certainly to come. The FED is certain to raise interest rates at their next meeting. This should provide another entry opportunity. - My take? BET ON TRUMP"
Post 2: "The macro signal alert level is currently moved to between caution/yellow and green. Need to have a close above resistance and holding up above that tomorrow for considering a full green."
Post 3:
Question: "oldarmy, How aggressive would you have a 401(k)? Would you have a greater % of funds in stocks, or more in a stable type market?"
- "Right now the markets have not hit new highs. While this recent move has looked great the fact is we are still below all time highs and therefore technically a macro sideways pattern. I would not be aggressive at all right now. 25% into funds with heavy holdings/weighted into those sectors I mentioned will hold up better should this move of euphoria wear off and fail. Long term outlook in these primaries sectors should outperform. I wouldn't be in any rush to jump in considering all of the current action actually proves nothing at this point."
On 12/7: (DOW closes at 19,549):
Question: "Is the traffic light still yellow/red? I'm wondering the same thing... It was yellow/red on 11/10/2016. Has this assessment changed any in the past month?"
-"It was at yellow between (red) sell to (yellow) caution into the election based on a Hillary win being hailed as a certainty. Then quickly moved from there to between caution and green with placing some 401k money back to work close to same levels as when the period of uncertainty occurred. I wouldn't be moving to 100% invested until we get the next sell off, which will happen. Honeymoon's are awesome things."
Using the post at bottom of page 1, and adding the posts within this thread: Essentially, a 401k investor relying on the advice posted, would have been out of the market until July, then perhaps 50/50 into the market as it went from 18,000 to 18,500, then back to the sidelines after DOW is already back at 18,000. So.an investor following the macro-market advice has effectively been out of the market as the DOW went from 16,865 to the current 19,887 (18%).
Any post where a clear macro-call is made, is below:
On 3/1: (DOW closes at 16,865)
* "I'll stand by the bear market macro call which means we will not reach new market highs above the 18300 market high."
On 3/8: (DOW closes at 16,964)
* "yes, the (DOW value) channel is still heading down regardless of the bouncing around within it".
On 5/6: (DOW closes at 17,740)
* "Of my 262 data points 238 are red. The granular jobs data clicked off the last 32 of the 238. When all 262 go red I post my reversal call and what people do with that info is up to them. What I do with it is trade extremely large volumes with confidence that the direction is set."
On 5/31: (DOW closes at 17,787)
* "Nothing has changed on my macro view on heading to new lows before seeing any new market highs."
On 6/22: (DOW closes at 17,780)
* "I had the highest readings of a market reversal since April 20th. Not 100% still, so if I had to give a percentage confidence it would 95%. Obviously that means I would continue with my current strategy of shorting tops but I would change the sell half on these down moves to 25%. Also, another change is the short strategy being above 18k. We most likely do not see 18k now."
On 6/23: (DOW closes at 18,011)
* "If the vote ends up being BREXIT then the markets are tanking. No fake out move down and then back up with that side."
On 7/4: (DOW closes at 17,949)
* "Spent free time over the last couple of days running all the data and adding in currency devaluations thus far. Result is the reversal indication comes in at 50%. What that means is a net-neutral on market direction. Assuming the DOW breaks 18k again I am calling off the automatic short signal due to this change. In fact, having 4 short opportunities work out to perfection, I will now buy undervalued sectors or stocks if we break 18k. That's the smartest trade opportunity because a break above 18k with these new readings would be a bullish indicator. Yup, I'm willing to predict should we break above 18k it will result in another leg higher in the markets this time. That's what the ripple effect of BREXIT has provided shorter term. A macro change."
On 7/5: (DOW closes at 17,840)
"So you're saying it's a coin flip now on if this is a bear or bull? Just making sure I read you correctly. Tia"
"YESSIR. 50-50 with 18k being the pivot point on the bull side and 16950 on the bear side."
On 7/27: (DOW closes at 18,472)
"As far as macro market once earnings is over I am not seeing anything that changes the current trend. We talked buying the dips and that 100 point down day was just that."
On 8/15: (DOW closes at 18,636)
Question: "how long do yall think this upswing / bull run will last? "
"Until there is absolute certainty Hillary can't lose. Dead serious - like Seth Rich. Snopes block and tackling removed...."
On 9/9: (DOW closes at 18,085)
"I would avoid placing any new or sideline funds into equities for now."
On 9/26: (DOW closes at 18,094)
"The current status on macro actions are still the same. We are in condition yellow from the caution posted on the trader thread. 401k's should be 50%-100% sidelined during this time, depending on individuals factors.
This macro thread was formed in the wake of an Ag asking if now is the time to be putting new capital or 401k's back in (for those who sold on the caution). The response hasn't changed, which was a resounding "Heck no!"
On 9/26: (DOW closes at 18,094)
Question: "For those contributing to things like a ROTH which has a time limit on when contributions can be made, is the best option to apply monthly contributions to something like a money market account and then shift those funds at a later date depending on market signals?"
-"Absolutely."
On 10/11: (DOW closes at 18,329)
"Bottom line - Condition yellow (caution with 401k's sitting it out at appropriate levels) still in effect."
On 10/21: (DOW closes at 18,145)
"If there were a condition between yellow and red I would turn that signal on today."
On 11/2: (DOW closes at 17,959)
"In response to the question on Defcon level the best I can say is we are right between yellow and red."
On 11/3: (DOW closes at 17,930)
"While I've made it clear that we don't know where the next big move takes us yet we are in caution territory and people should have been on the sidelines with nothing but smiles right now."
ON 11/8: (DOW closes at 18,332)
"Lastly, we know this market has become political and that is dangerous. Therefore I have the largest cash position (90%) I've had since July 2015. I'm in absolutely no hurry to implement a strategy unless we have an emotional overreaction to the election."
On 11/10: (DOW closes at 18,807)
Post 1: "If you believe that a CEO President, hellbent on rebuilding the country's infrastrure (CAUSE), will put people back to work (EFFECT) then increase/take positions in the sectors listed yesterday and today. Then look for entry opportunities certainly to come. The FED is certain to raise interest rates at their next meeting. This should provide another entry opportunity. - My take? BET ON TRUMP"
Post 2: "The macro signal alert level is currently moved to between caution/yellow and green. Need to have a close above resistance and holding up above that tomorrow for considering a full green."
Post 3:
Question: "oldarmy, How aggressive would you have a 401(k)? Would you have a greater % of funds in stocks, or more in a stable type market?"
- "Right now the markets have not hit new highs. While this recent move has looked great the fact is we are still below all time highs and therefore technically a macro sideways pattern. I would not be aggressive at all right now. 25% into funds with heavy holdings/weighted into those sectors I mentioned will hold up better should this move of euphoria wear off and fail. Long term outlook in these primaries sectors should outperform. I wouldn't be in any rush to jump in considering all of the current action actually proves nothing at this point."
On 12/7: (DOW closes at 19,549):
Question: "Is the traffic light still yellow/red? I'm wondering the same thing... It was yellow/red on 11/10/2016. Has this assessment changed any in the past month?"
-"It was at yellow between (red) sell to (yellow) caution into the election based on a Hillary win being hailed as a certainty. Then quickly moved from there to between caution and green with placing some 401k money back to work close to same levels as when the period of uncertainty occurred. I wouldn't be moving to 100% invested until we get the next sell off, which will happen. Honeymoon's are awesome things."
NO ONE expected Trump to win. There's a good chance the marked would have made the dip we were expecting had Hillary won, because she would have a hard time correcting the Obamacare penalties, would have grown govt even more, or perhaps gotten frisky with Russia.
I left money on the table expecting all of these things but got back in as soon as I could!
Perhaps the lesson here is to avoid major elections when trying to make macro projections!
I left money on the table expecting all of these things but got back in as soon as I could!
Perhaps the lesson here is to avoid major elections when trying to make macro projections!
Anyone want to share an opinion on how long this run will go, or what early indicators are that it wills low down?
I would use the 200 day simple or exponential moving average on the major indices or VIX as a play to get out of the market. If we drop near / below that, it may be a sign of the bearish market. Now it can be a "buy" signal there to for others to enter, but it's probably a good time to liquidate, reassess, and either choose to re-enter or stay away for support to be verified.
I like the 200 day for that. Some use the 50 day moving average as an earlier indicator.
I like the 200 day for that. Some use the 50 day moving average as an earlier indicator.
The point here is "the trend is your friend until it ends". "Until it ends" is subject to everyone's thoughts, but I'll stick with the 200 day moving average as the indicator to question the trend and confirm / verify the direction.
oldarmy1 and others - With Dow at 21,000 now and the crazy volume over the past 3 months, what do you guys think about the macro indicators going forward? Is this still a good time to buy in the dips, or are we nearing them end of the Trump momentum? Love this thread, thanks!
I still think there's plenty of macro runway, though minor corrections can occur. Here's my unsupervised learning chart (Hidden Markov Model) for detection of major negative regimes -- no lagging moving averages or parameter fitting. Any prolonged signs of trouble & the system goes to cash:
Wife is an Aggie
Joined:
Jun 25, 2014
Posts:
1,385
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Thought I'd bump this to get everyone's thoughts.
Just curious if you see this as another run of the mill correction heading into the election, or if this thing is finally rolling over into a major bear market?
Just curious if you see this as another run of the mill correction heading into the election, or if this thing is finally rolling over into a major bear market?
Lost money going into the 2016 election based on this thread. I think the market will take off if the Rs maintains reasonable amount of power. Regardless, it's the last time I make decisions like this when politics are at play.
I'm sure many people on here did. Certain posters are worshiped on here and turned out to be flat wrong on the election and the market consequences. But everyone seemed to forget about it around here. I'll admit, I almost bought in to what was being said but drug my feet. In hindsight, I'm glad I did.
No one knows what the market will do in the short or medium term. This thread is proof of that.
This seems to be one of those lessons that people just can't accept.
This seems to be one of those lessons that people just can't accept.
People want to hero worship and believe in something greater than their own abilities. That's why prognosticators who fail over and over again with their predictions are held in such esteem based on the few times they get something right.Wrighty said:
No one knows what the market will do in the short or medium term. This thread is proof of that.
This seems to be one of those lessons that people just can't accept.
Politics are literally always in play.OneNightW said:
Lost money going into the 2016 election based on this thread. I think the market will take off if the Rs maintains reasonable amount of power. Regardless, it's the last time I make decisions like this when politics are at play.
Any new thoughts?
Featured Stories
See All
Phelps' career night wills Taylor-less Aggies to improbable comeback
by Olin Buchanan
25:46
14h ago
8.9k
33:29
12h ago
966
Pick 'Em & Rip 'Em sponsored by PrizePicks: Week 19
by Matthew Dawson
9:22
17h ago
1.3k
2:19
10h ago
1.6k
Texas A&M OL signee Lamont Rogers is ready for his next chapter
by Jason Howell
justin0957
Phelps' career night wills Taylor-less Aggies to improbable comeback
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
6