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*****MACRO MARKETS*****
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suburban cowboy
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DDSO
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JOHN2010
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So, as related to macro market status.... Where are we? Macro market hasn't indicated a reversal to the downside yet, right?
How do people want it posted? Do you only want a post when I am 100% certain the markets have topped, with all data points confirmation? OR Do you prefer a traffic signal categorized approach:
* "green light" - like the last macro bottom and the "if we break 18k this time do not sell cause another bull leg js a certainty"
* "yellow light" - like the current "caution" top we are now in that was a certain top once we lost posted support, but not yet confirming data that it is THE macro top?
* "red light" - like "oldarmy1's gonna be called a fraud if this isn't a macro reversal because he posted that it is a confirmed reversal and we actioned based on that signal"?
* "green light" - like the last macro bottom and the "if we break 18k this time do not sell cause another bull leg js a certainty"
* "yellow light" - like the current "caution" top we are now in that was a certain top once we lost posted support, but not yet confirming data that it is THE macro top?
* "red light" - like "oldarmy1's gonna be called a fraud if this isn't a macro reversal because he posted that it is a confirmed reversal and we actioned based on that signal"?
Traffic lights please, gives all of us pilot fish hope we have some control
oldarmy1
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LOL at the idea of 100% certainty about short or medium term market action.
quote:
LOL at the idea of 100% certainty about short or medium term market action.
Well looky here...it's Wrighty. But seriously, read it and weep. It's right there in black and white text on the stock market thread.
However, the "idea" is about long term trend market action. At least you've come far enough to not refute that any more.
baby steps baby steps
redsox34
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OP, what are the rules on the thread? Can anyone comment on macro events, or is this thread focused on traders as well?
quote:The stock market thread is for traders Woody. There was a a request/idea to have a separate macro thread to prevent confusion with trader talk.
OP, what are the rules on the thread? Can anyone comment on macro events, or is this thread focused on traders as well?
quote:In that case, Michael Gayed makes an interesting argument that while we are due another correction in 2016, we aren't there yet: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-isnt-the-second-correction-of-2016-yet-2016-09-14quote:The stock market thread is for traders Woody. There was a a request/idea to have a separate macro thread to prevent confusion with trader talk.
OP, what are the rules on the thread? Can anyone comment on macro events, or is this thread focused on traders as well?
I'm in.
quote:Pretty much in line with his analysis. Did he post anything about the caution prior to the 400 point decline? Rear view articles become much easier to write once the base support forms. He had that on 9-14. So in effect he is saying be a buyer right now because we will challenge the highs. I might feel the same but no way I would tell people this is not the top.quote:In that case, Michael Gayed makes an interesting argument that while we are due another correction in 2016, we aren't there yet: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-isnt-the-second-correction-of-2016-yet-2016-09-14quote:The stock market thread is for traders Woody. There was a a request/idea to have a separate macro thread to prevent confusion with trader talk.
OP, what are the rules on the thread? Can anyone comment on macro events, or is this thread focused on traders as well?
I'd prefer to simply say current support is exactly where we pointed to BEFORE the 400 point drop occurred. Frankly that wasn't, or shouldn't have been a surprise support level given it was the resistance point prior to that final breakout move upward. For those learning make a note that big resistance points, and 18k was a multi-month resistance point becomes the major support once eclipsed on volume.
I
Here's his article from a week prior: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-inch-closer-to-2016s-second-correction-2016-09-07
Honestly, I'm a lot more impressed that he was early in expecting the "melt-up" from the Feb. lows when everyone else was losing their mind about the next big crash. Here's an article from early Feb: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-us-stocks-continue-to-mask-global-weakness-or-fall-victim-to-it-2016-02-02
Honestly, I'm a lot more impressed that he was early in expecting the "melt-up" from the Feb. lows when everyone else was losing their mind about the next big crash. Here's an article from early Feb: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-us-stocks-continue-to-mask-global-weakness-or-fall-victim-to-it-2016-02-02
quote:You're aware I don't buy the predictive power of technical signals. R^2's are typically very weak, or were data-mined through backtests. And even if a set of signals does have some predictive power, it can be very difficult dealing with all of the false positives you'll face over an extended time frame. That, plus the trading costs and unnecessary tax burdens makes trading irresponsible for the average joe. We don't have to rehash that argument any further.quote:Pretty much in line with his analysis. Did he post anything about the caution prior to the 400 point decline? Rear view articles become much easier to write once the base support forms. He had that on 9-14. So in effect he is saying be a buyer right now because we will challenge the highs. I might feel the same but no way I would tell people this is not the top.quote:In that case, Michael Gayed makes an interesting argument that while we are due another correction in 2016, we aren't there yet: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-isnt-the-second-correction-of-2016-yet-2016-09-14quote:The stock market thread is for traders Woody. There was a a request/idea to have a separate macro thread to prevent confusion with trader talk.
OP, what are the rules on the thread? Can anyone comment on macro events, or is this thread focused on traders as well?
I'd prefer to simply say current support is exactly where we pointed to BEFORE the 400 point drop occurred. Frankly that wasn't, or shouldn't have been a surprise support level given it was the resistance point prior to that final breakout move upward. For those learning make a note that big resistance points, and 18k was a multi-month resistance point becomes the major support once eclipsed on volume.
However, that's not to say that I think markets only go up and there is nothing you can do but just hold on for dear life. It's really not difficult to develop a disciplined system of rebalancing between a diverse group of assets in order to outperform any one index on a risk-adjusted basis.
IMO, I think a large part of the problem is that most people can meet their long-term financial goals with market-based returns, but our brains are hard-wired to seek to beat the "average" and so we spend an inordinate amount of time trying to figure out whether Google is a better stock than Apple, when the best solution for the vast majority of people is to own everything and keep their costs down.
All that to say there is nothing wrong with dollar cost averaging, buy and hold, approach based on historic models. I also would not that technicals are one of a thousand data points used to verify trend reversals. Anyone who has followed the very transparent posts on tops, bottoms and breakout legs can determine if I'm merely ego-centered to "beat the average" OR, in fact, DO beat the ever living heck out of the dollar cost average investor.
I do. Jeff does. Others are now. So honestly, you weighed in. That's fine. I'm not going to argue on your approach. It's also proven over time to be a perfectly acceptable method for building wealth. And if people aren't interested, motivated or able to take advantage of my approach then dollar cost averaging is really their only option. God bless them and I want them to retire in style from that approach.
These threads are for the rest of us. Nothing more - nothing less.
I do. Jeff does. Others are now. So honestly, you weighed in. That's fine. I'm not going to argue on your approach. It's also proven over time to be a perfectly acceptable method for building wealth. And if people aren't interested, motivated or able to take advantage of my approach then dollar cost averaging is really their only option. God bless them and I want them to retire in style from that approach.
These threads are for the rest of us. Nothing more - nothing less.
Can we please stop with the "gotcha" scenarios being presented to oldarmy? If you don't like his advice then please ignore.
Back to 401Ks.
My Company uses Empower Retirement to manage our Employees' retirement accounts. I just got off the phone with them to better understand the rules associated with moving money between funds.
There is the Vangard "Equity Wash Rule" - Which restricts moving money from a stable value fund to a "competing fund" for 90 days.
There also seems to be a 30 day restriction from moving money in and out of the Vangard S&P Index Funds.
The rep on the phone hardly knew how to answer my questions, which is kind of pathetic. Anyway, here is what's confusing. I moved money to a Goldman Stable Value Fund, but the Empower Retirement rep said that the money is restricted from being moved for 90 days. Not sure how these two funds are competing, since one follows the S&P and the other is basically a money market fund???
Back to 401Ks.
My Company uses Empower Retirement to manage our Employees' retirement accounts. I just got off the phone with them to better understand the rules associated with moving money between funds.
There is the Vangard "Equity Wash Rule" - Which restricts moving money from a stable value fund to a "competing fund" for 90 days.
There also seems to be a 30 day restriction from moving money in and out of the Vangard S&P Index Funds.
The rep on the phone hardly knew how to answer my questions, which is kind of pathetic. Anyway, here is what's confusing. I moved money to a Goldman Stable Value Fund, but the Empower Retirement rep said that the money is restricted from being moved for 90 days. Not sure how these two funds are competing, since one follows the S&P and the other is basically a money market fund???
quote:I've been on record saying I think you are probably a helluva trader. Certainly, I cannot verify your stated investment returns, but I have no reason to assume you have been anything less than truthful.
All that to say there is nothing wrong with dollar cost averaging, buy and hold, approach based on historic models. I also would not that technicals are one of a thousand data points used to verify trend reversals. Anyone who has followed the very transparent posts on tops, bottoms and breakout legs can determine if I'm merely ego-centered to "beat the average" OR, in fact, DO beat the ever living heck out of the dollar cost average investor.
I do. Jeff does. Others are now. So honestly, you weighed in. That's fine. I'm not going to argue on your approach. It's also proven over time to be a perfectly acceptable method for building wealth. And if people aren't interested, motivated or able to take advantage of my approach then dollar cost averaging is really their only option. God bless them and I want them to retire in style from that approach.
These threads are for the rest of us. Nothing more - nothing less.
I think it's clear you have tended to understate the effect transaction costs and taxes have on the net investment returns of your strategy, and the effect they would have on others' portfolios should they attempt to piggyback on your trades. However, I don't hold any ill will towards you or any trader. I hope for nothing but the best for you, Jeff and any other aggie attempting to outmaneuver the markets.
I speak with firms like Bridgewater and AQR and other extremely reputable outfits, and they would certainly disagree with you that there is any signal or group of signals that give anything close to 100% certainty. When you use terms like that, you really do overstate things.
There is no such thing as 100% certainty about the future. To imply otherwise is dangerous.
quote:It's not that uncommon for 401(k) platforms to restrict trading activity. This is often due to the fact that there are no transaction costs within the 401(k) for making trades, whereas these costs exist in reality. These restrictions are put into place precisely so that people don't make too many moves, which is a cost that is born by someone else rather than paying $7.95 or whatever directly to make a trade.
Can we please stop with the "gotcha" scenarios being presented to oldarmy? If you don't like his advice then please ignore.
Back to 401Ks.
My Company uses Empower Retirement to manage our Employees' retirement accounts. I just got off the phone with them to better understand the rules associated with moving money between funds.
There is the Vangard "Equity Wash Rule" - Which restricts moving money from a stable value fund to a "competing fund" for 90 days.
There also seems to be a 30 day restriction from moving money in and out of the Vangard S&P Index Funds.
The rep on the phone hardly knew how to answer my questions, which is kind of pathetic. Anyway, here is what's confusing. I moved money to a Goldman Stable Value Fund, but the Empower Retirement rep said that the money is restricted from being moved for 90 days. Not sure how these two funds are competing, since one follows the S&P and the other is basically a money market fund???
quote:What's your definition of meaningfully here? I think they can raise rates again, but they certainly can't raise rates to say 3% for quite some time.
Does anyone else think the Fed will actually be able to raise rated meaningfully over the next year? Closed end munis have gotten killed recently over Fed raising fears. I'm in the lower for longer camp and think a buying opportunity is coming on the long end of the curve especially if they raise next week as I think more easing will follow before substantial rate rises.
There are observations and there are action posts. If you'd like to go through all of the threads and isolate only the actionable calls where "This was the bottom - buy", "We have reached the top - sell" VERSUS observations, potential support breaks, scenarios etc. then I believe you'll see 100% accurate macro record.
As far as being able to make short term calls - that would be day trading and I don't think I need to say again that I am not a day trader. While not an every day occurrence (day trading) there are specific days, such as the most recent precursor posts the day before the 400 point drop where I would be 100% certain on the drop - even to the point of posting before it happened where it would drop to (18k flash below).
So I suppose we are talking semantics. I certainly can't tell you where the market ends up Monday, or Tuesday or next week. That would be saying I am some kind of clairvoyant. Ha! That said, as for macro trends and pure technical breaks - hey, I'm putting it out there and letting the chips fall where they may!
As far as being able to make short term calls - that would be day trading and I don't think I need to say again that I am not a day trader. While not an every day occurrence (day trading) there are specific days, such as the most recent precursor posts the day before the 400 point drop where I would be 100% certain on the drop - even to the point of posting before it happened where it would drop to (18k flash below).
So I suppose we are talking semantics. I certainly can't tell you where the market ends up Monday, or Tuesday or next week. That would be saying I am some kind of clairvoyant. Ha! That said, as for macro trends and pure technical breaks - hey, I'm putting it out there and letting the chips fall where they may!
This guy surely doesn't get it. There are plenty of us on that thread who took a wait and see approach on oldarmy's post, but he has more than proven his expertise on macro trends with concrete examples there. Many of us have even used his info to make or save money that are more passive investors. Like he said, he's not a day trader and could easily not post anything here. If your goal is to come on this thread to attempt to argue and prove one specific poster wrong, please leave the thread for those of us that want to have an intelligent discussion on the market. If you have an actual opinion on the state of the market, please post that for discussion sake and don't go picking and choosing through a 50 page thread for one example you take out of context that you think proves you right. This thread is not about anyone's ego; it's meant to be discussion that helps all of us here better understand the market and take advantage of any information that might be available to us as a whole.
Well Dallas, thanks. And now we have a macro only thread where only the actual calls on macro movements will be posted. OOOooo - there is no where to "hide"!
quote:I find it very interesting to follow the market discussion, and have certainly learned a lot about trading options, day-trading, and nuances of the market from the knowledgeable people such as yourself within the various threads. Thanks for that.
There are observations and there are action posts. If you'd like to go through all of the threads and isolate only the actionable calls where "This was the bottom - buy", "We have reached the top - sell" VERSUS observations, potential support breaks, scenarios etc. then I believe you'll see 100% accurate macro record.
As far as being able to make short term calls - that would be day trading and I don't think I need to say again that I am not a day trader. While not an every day occurrence (day trading) there are specific days, such as the most recent precursor posts the day before the 400 point drop where I would be 100% certain on the drop - even to the point of posting before it happened where it would drop to (18k flash below).
So I suppose we are talking semantics. I certainly can't tell you where the market ends up Monday, or Tuesday or next week. That would be saying I am some kind of clairvoyant. Ha! That said, as for macro trends and pure technical breaks - hey, I'm putting it out there and letting the chips fall where they may!
I am just observing the comments made about "100% certainty about macro direction of stock market". That is quite the claim. If it came with even a hint of humility then I'd be good with it. I have read through the first 20plus pages of the stock market thread, and the only posts that I can see where a clear opinion was given about the macro direction of the future market are the following: You can judge the results for yourself.
On 3/1: (DOW closes at 16,865)
* "I'll stand by the bear market macro call which means we will not reach new market highs above the 18300 market high."
On 3/8: (DOW closes at 16,964)
* "yes, the (DOW value) channel is still heading down regardless of the bouncing around within it".
On 5/6: (DOW closes at 17,740)
* "Of my 262 data points 238 are red. The granular jobs data clicked off the last 32 of the 238. When all 262 go red I post my reversal call and what people do with that info is up to them. What I do with it is trade extremely large volumes with confidence that the direction is set."
On 5/31: (DOW closes at 17,787)
* "Nothing has changed on my macro view on heading to new lows before seeing any new market highs."
On 6/22: (DOW closes at 17,780)
* "I had the highest readings of a market reversal since April 20th. Not 100% still, so if I had to give a percentage confidence it would 95%. Obviously that means I would continue with my current strategy of shorting tops but I would change the sell half on these down moves to 25%. Also, another change is the short strategy being above 18k. We most likely do not see 18k now."
On 6/23: (DOW closes at 18,011)
* "If the vote ends up being BREXIT then the markets are tanking. No fake out move down and then back up with that side."
On 7/4: (DOW closes at 17,949)
* "Spent free time over the last couple of days running all the data and adding in currency devaluations thus far. Result is the reversal indication comes in at 50%. What that means is a net-neutral on market direction. Assuming the DOW breaks 18k again I am calling off the automatic short signal due to this change. In fact, having 4 short opportunities work out to perfection, I will now buy undervalued sectors or stocks if we break 18k. That's the smartest trade opportunity because a break above 18k with these new readings would be a bullish indicator. Yup, I'm willing to predict should we break above 18k it will result in another leg higher in the markets this time. That's what the ripple effect of BREXIT has provided shorter term. A macro change."
DOW has been hitting record highs, including 18,722.
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