quote:
There are observations and there are action posts. If you'd like to go through all of the threads and isolate only the actionable calls where "This was the bottom - buy", "We have reached the top - sell" VERSUS observations, potential support breaks, scenarios etc. then I believe you'll see 100% accurate macro record.
As far as being able to make short term calls - that would be day trading and I don't think I need to say again that I am not a day trader. While not an every day occurrence (day trading) there are specific days, such as the most recent precursor posts the day before the 400 point drop where I would be 100% certain on the drop - even to the point of posting before it happened where it would drop to (18k flash below).
So I suppose we are talking semantics. I certainly can't tell you where the market ends up Monday, or Tuesday or next week. That would be saying I am some kind of clairvoyant. Ha! That said, as for macro trends and pure technical breaks - hey, I'm putting it out there and letting the chips fall where they may! 
I find it very interesting to follow the market discussion, and have certainly learned a lot about trading options, day-trading, and nuances of the market from the knowledgeable people such as yourself within the various threads. Thanks for that.
I am just observing the comments made about "100% certainty about macro direction of stock market". That is quite the claim. If it came with even a hint of humility then I'd be good with it. I have read through the first 20plus pages of the stock market thread, and the only posts that I can see where a clear opinion was given about the macro direction of the future market are the following: You can judge the results for yourself.
On 3/1: (DOW closes at 16,865)
* "I'll stand by the bear market macro call which means we will not reach new market highs above the 18300 market high."
On 3/8: (DOW closes at 16,964)
* "yes, the (DOW value) channel is still heading down regardless of the bouncing around within it".
On 5/6: (DOW closes at 17,740)
* "Of my 262 data points 238 are red. The granular jobs data clicked off the last 32 of the 238. When all 262 go red I post my reversal call and what people do with that info is up to them. What I do with it is trade extremely large volumes with confidence that the direction is set."
On 5/31: (DOW closes at 17,787)
* "Nothing has changed on my macro view on heading to new lows before seeing any new market highs."
On 6/22: (DOW closes at 17,780)
* "I had the highest readings of a market reversal since April 20th. Not 100% still, so if I had to give a percentage confidence it would 95%. Obviously that means I would continue with my current strategy of shorting tops but I would change the sell half on these down moves to 25%. Also, another change is the short strategy being above 18k. We most likely do not see 18k now."
On 6/23: (DOW closes at 18,011)
* "If the vote ends up being BREXIT then the markets are tanking. No fake out move down and then back up with that side."
On 7/4: (DOW closes at 17,949)
* "Spent free time over the last couple of days running all the data and adding in currency devaluations thus far. Result is the reversal indication comes in at 50%. What that means is a net-neutral on market direction. Assuming the DOW breaks 18k again I am calling off the automatic short signal due to this change. In fact, having 4 short opportunities work out to perfection, I will now buy undervalued sectors or stocks if we break 18k. That's the smartest trade opportunity because a break above 18k with these new readings would be a bullish indicator. Yup, I'm willing to predict should we break above 18k it will result in another leg higher in the markets this time. That's what the ripple effect of BREXIT has provided shorter term. A macro change."
DOW has been hitting record highs, including 18,722.
