Seems to be the two extremes out there from gurus selling investment advice.

Can anyone suggest non paid on line investment advice that you like and mostly trust?
And that you do not have to subscribe to their newsletter or service to get the info?
Good info/advice and no charge likely does not go together, but thought I would see what
some of the posters here think.

A regime change in D.C. likely the big wild card in most any scenario....could Trump the whole deal

Giving you free info. We're going down. Think of all the reading and wasted energy I just saved you!

11500

Gonna be a huge market reset soon... Most of my stuff is in cash now. Just waiting.

somewhere between 6,000 and 31,000......does that help?

The DOW never went to 6,000 even during the Great Recession.

There weren't this many market pundits claiming "We're going down!" in 2007/2008 either. Bubbles don't pop with everyone watching and calling it.

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he DOW never went to 6,000 even during the Great Recession.

There weren't this many market pundits claiming "We're going down!" in 2007/2008 either. Bubbles don't pop with everyone watching and calling it.

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Market pundits overwhelmingly are in the correction, not bear market, camp. Even the majority of individual investors remain neutral with a bullish advantage. Where do you come up with your statements/data? BTW - Saying we are going down doesn't mean to 6000. We can agree there.

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The DOW never went to 6,000 even during the Great Recession.

There weren't this many market pundits claiming "We're going down!" in 2007/2008 either. Bubbles don't pop with everyone watching and calling it.

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yeah, the 4 trillion spent on quantitative easing did a hell of a job didn't it?

If the market goes down it could possibly go down hard sometime in the future. If certain economic conditions are met, we could maybe see some violent moves in the market, possibly near term.

Ok, so I'm a CPA, but never really cared for stocks or finance until now. Call it a growing hobby. So pardon my ignorance when I ask why is this not a good time to pick up some stocks in the big oil companies like Shell or Chevron? Wouldn't this be the best time to buy?

If you plan on holding long term then yeas.

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Ok, so I'm a CPA, but never really cared for stocks or finance until now. Call it a growing hobby. So pardon my ignorance when I ask why is this not a good time to pick up some stocks in the big oil companies like Shell or Chevron? Wouldn't this be the best time to buy?

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Because there is a lot more downside.

Love all of the experts that are so sure of what will happen. No one enters a trade expecting to lose, and there are an equal number of smart people buying as selling.

If you think Chevron is a good deal, buy it. If you can't afford to lose half of your investment, you should leave that money in the bank. Trying to predict where the market goes short term is a fool's errand.

I don't have stats or analysis to add, I can just say that it seems we have someone calling for a crisis every day.

Maybe it is the fact that social media and the Internet is more prevalent in our day to day lives, but you hear more negative views on the market than back in 07/08. I don't see gross negligence overall in the market, but again, that could always be hindsight bias.

To be fair there are a lot of experts saying it's a good idea to watch your financial ass right now. Fund managers will tell you it's a great time to get some cheap stocks. (They get paid if you do)

But, There is some dam good advice being posted on this board. To each their own I suppose.

I suppose an 8 year fed rally with 4 trillion dollars printed is legit. Too bad we have a labor participation rate that is the lowest since the '60s.

...and falling oil prices.

Nope, I'm convinced. It's pretty much a guess on the market right now.

Imo, the window to buy o&g stocks is the next six months or so.

Bankruptcies are up and rising and bid ask spreads are closing. The companies with solid balance sheets will acquire distressed assets cheap and come out of this strong.

If you're a long term buyer, look for solid balance sheets and upside exposure (via e&p, midstream, or crude sourcing) to cheap basins. Everyone's price is getting hammered right now, and that includes some companies that don't deserve it.

Obviously if the stock market as a whole crashes, all bets are off.

I've asked this in a roundabout way elsewhere... But... How will distressed asset buys persist with the majors if they've all committed to continuing their dividend when almost all of them project to be cash flow negative after capex/dividend in 2016? I doubt gearing in this environment is inexpensive... So where's the cash come from to buy distressed assets unless you cut the dividend? I don't see the majors being a great purchase in 2016 unless you see some surprises in their cash flow story in 1Q or oil prices begin to rebound in 2h16. Cash story is just too tight right now and I've yet to see major shut ins announced that will effect the supply curve short term and I'm not bullish a short term demand spike.

I'm putting this out there not to say I'm right... I'm just looking for the compelling case to move on one other than the stock price is low right now. Please tell me what I'm missing in my thoughts if I'm missing something.

I'm 25 and my only exposure to the market is in my IRA and 401k and about 6 months worth of expenses in company stock from ESPP purchases...should I be worried right now?

I'm also in O&G but have about 6-8 months cash on hand.

Current strategy is just contributing every two weeks and don't really look at it since I can't use it until I'm 60.

I know next to nothing about investing and love these threads

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Ok, so I'm a CPA, but never really cared for stocks or finance until now. Call it a growing hobby. So pardon my ignorance when I ask why is this not a good time to pick up some stocks in the big oil companies like Shell or Chevron? Wouldn't this be the best time to buy?

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Because there is a lot more downside.

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Agree I think this bear market to oil will be like 08 to finance companies. I think some energy companies will go under that many never thought could happen.

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Didn't 08 kill finance companies because they had way too much leverage, as well as, money invested in something with zero backing?

I get that some upstreamers will be hurt/killed, but even they have real assets to help from losing everything.

Seems like a million dollar company that went under in '08 lost $100 million in assets. Seems like a million dollar oil company that goes under will lose less than a million (maybe more if there is leverage or side bets, but figured it can't be as much).

I am not arguing but wanted to see if you are seeing some evidence of things that I may be missing.

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To be fair there are a lot of experts saying it's a good idea to watch your financial ass right now. Fund managers will tell you it's a great time to get some cheap stocks. (They get paid if you do)

But, There is some dam good advice being posted on this board. To each their own I suppose.

I suppose an 8 year fed rally with 4 trillion dollars printed is legit. Too bad we have a labor participation rate that is the lowest since the '60s.

...and falling oil prices.

Nope, I'm convinced. It's pretty much a guess on the market right now.

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Well to be fair, the fund managers telling you to get get into gold or short the market because a crash is coming get paid to do so.

Central banks aren't experimenting with negative rates for the heck of it. Their normal bag of tricks didn't work so they are winging it.

Based on age and the fact you have a job with emergency funds, I would stay invested and ignore it.

Studies have shown that folks who stay invested make more money than the ones who move in and out of the market in 401ks.

These Ags who are moving in and out are doing so in a platform that allows them to make money if the market goes down or by picking niches and individual items. You can't do that in your 401k (most likely). Also, they are spending a lot of time researching and watching. That is a must if you want to outperform the buy and hold method.

they get paid regardless if you are in the stocks or bonds or money market within their funds, which is exactly like the hedge fund managers.

they are all paid to keep your money

not in 401ks and the ones I have seen are 20-30 years back

20-30 years back happens to coincide with the biggest bull market in history.

well, why do you think I chose it?

seriously Clark, the last 20 years is mostly bear market and the s&p ave during the last 20 years was 7.61%, which is under the long term average

the 30 year is 15yr of Bull and 15 yr of Bear - 9.73% which is close enough to the long term average

besides, timers can still make money in all kinds of markets - they only need volatility or consistent trends

one stat that always amazes me is how they say that volatility is no worse now than it has been in the past - that seems impossible, but maybe it is in how they determine volatility

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I've asked this in a roundabout way elsewhere... But... How will distressed asset buys persist with the majors if they've all committed to continuing their dividend when almost all of them project to be cash flow negative after capex/dividend in 2016? I doubt gearing in this environment is inexpensive... So where's the cash come from to buy distressed assets unless you cut the dividend? I don't see the majors being a great purchase in 2016 unless you see some surprises in their cash flow story in 1Q or oil prices begin to rebound in 2h16. Cash story is just too tight right now and I've yet to see major shut ins announced that will effect the supply curve short term and I'm not bullish a short term demand spike.

I'm putting this out there not to say I'm right... I'm just looking for the compelling case to move on one other than the stock price is low right now. Please tell me what I'm missing in my thoughts if I'm missing something.

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For one, I wouldn't restrict my view to the majors. For another, there are companies out there, including majors, who can get financing for the right deal.

But I am not an investment professional.

Getting financing isn't what worries me... It's their gearing ratios and what debt would cost at those levels given depressed asset and commodity prices.

Invest in Aggie CEO and energy company Phillips 66. Way undervalued and will be a great long term investment.

People who say we're going down are also selling something else based on fear, be it gold, real estate, insurance, etc