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zgolfz85
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

I pray that I'm wrong and that Trump can find a way to truly set us on a healthy path forward without having to first go backwards.

Trust me, there is nobody who wouldn't be affected by widescale deflation. I know for a fact my life would be a struggle in that environment. It would be extremely painful. But I look at my kids and wonder.. "wouldn't it be nice if they entered the workforce at a time when the median income could afford a starter home? Where they take home more of their money and exist within a government not controlled by bankers and foreign interest? I wish there was a way to get there that didn't require the majority having to sacrifice and endure very painful times. I just don't see it. The time to fix things was 2008. But instead of fixing, or even patching, they just moved everybody from one sinking boat to a much larger boat with a glass bottom.
it's why I also invest in guns and ammo....although they were all lost in a boating accident
SAag1113
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AG
Ignorant question, but when you say lack of buyers, won't there always be buyers now just by the increasing number of people investing in 401K's (with companies matching even more). These institutions managing the tens of millions of people participating have to put the money somewhere right? That's a lot of buyers every month.
Heineken-Ashi
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SAag1113 said:

Ignorant question, but when you say lack of buyers, won't there always be buyers now just by the increasing number of people investing in 401K's (with companies matching even more). These institutions managing the tens of millions of people participating have to put the money somewhere right? That's a lot of buyers every month.
Yes, which can be support levels as the market continues lower. There were 401k's in 2008 and 2020. During the COVID drop, something like 80% of passive 401k holders stayed long.
SAag1113
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AG
Covid recovered pretty fast. I was just wondering if it's the increasing number of people in the market causing the steep incline. 24M 401K's with $60K avg salary investing 8%(with company match) just a lot of "no matter what" buys. Not saying that's right, just a lot of new money coming in every month.
spud1910
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Thank you for all you bring to this board. 5 years ago I had no clue about the things you are talking about. But the things you and others have brought, I have learned a lot. Please keep it up.
Jim
Heineken-Ashi
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SAag1113 said:

Covid recovered pretty fast. I was just wondering if it's the increasing number of people in the market causing the steep incline. 24M 401K's with $60K avg salary investing 8%(with company match) just a lot of "no matter what" buys. Not saying that's right, just a lot of new money coming in every month.
When COVID neared its bottom, there was record amounts of cash on the sideline. Go back and look at old twitter posts.





That was not QE. That was cash sent directly to end users, many of which already had some cash, and many of which raised some cash as they sold into the COVID drop. Completely different than 2008 QE where the recovery couldn't materialize until the demand for loans started seeing the expanded money supply loaned out by banks.

Here was the bank cash position last January



When I say the bid dries up, I don't mean the market will fall to $500 overnight. What I mean is that there are no buyers of significant volume to "buy the dip". So all you have is the weekly 401k injection and some money here and there from aggressive funds and retail. Think 2022. You had bottoms. And everyone bought them. Many got aggressive on each one. But each one ended up hitting resistance and blowing people out. I'm sure many of you remember how frustrating a year that was. And that. With the repo facility winding down, and BTFP gone, and especially with JPY in an uptrend, there's nothing to borrow from for the big players. That's why they call it a liquidity crisis. The emergency vehicles that are usually tapped to keep global liquidity moving might not be available.
SAag1113
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AG
Appreciate the insight and you taking the time to explain that out.
Brewmaster
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AG
going to watch this one, might enter next week- robotics play, they seem to be picking up lots of buyers:



some quick levels drawn. Big breakout move, then pullback into a box, then another box.



Heineken-Ashi
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Quote:

Finally we look at Arbe Robotics ARBE which is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) the company partnered with NVDA as a supplier of advanced radar technology used in autonomous vehicles and will undoubtedly be used when robots start coming off the production line. Brian notes in the video that the company has $40M in preorders from Chinese automotive companies and is expected to sign a European automotive company in the coming weeks. All of this make ARBE a compelling stock following the massive rise the stock saw after the NVDA partnership was announced.
Weird how it's following the same general path as our favorite graphite play. I'm here for it.

Heineken-Ashi
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By the way, so far in 2025, your money is still worth more invested in WWR than SPX or BTC.

EnronAg
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AG
What's that saying with blind………squirrel………..and nut?!?!?

Kidding. Always enjoy your TLDR posts…keep them coming!
Heineken-Ashi
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EnronAg said:

What's that saying with blind………squirrel………..and nut?!?!?

Kidding. Always enjoy your TLDR posts…keep them coming!
Sometimes the squirrel forgets where he buried the nut. And the next spring, you have a tree sprouting.

Heineken-Ashi
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Potential short squeeze?

RILY - 61% of float shorted

RILY - B. Riley Financial, Inc. Stock - Share Price, Short Interest, Short Squeeze, Borrow Rates (NasdaqGM)

Could be worth a small position. Stop is clear as day. Target $7-$9.

WestTexasAg
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

By the way, so far in 2025, your money is still worth more invested in WWR than SPX or BTC.


What is the story on WWR?
Heineken-Ashi
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WestTexasAg said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

By the way, so far in 2025, your money is still worth more invested in WWR than SPX or BTC.


What is the story on WWR?


Long story short, it was brought to the board as a mass accumulation play. It popped hard in 2020 through 2021. Many were able to make a lot of money. But many mass accumulated shares and then had the hood thrown over their head while the shorts threw them in the trunk, drove to the cemetary, and buried them alive.

For a lot of people here, this was what we experienced. Many of us averaged down, and down, and down.



The stock pretty much died. The company owns land in Alabama, a large piece of it a former graphite mine with the largest deposit in the lower 48. The company was mismanaged though. Lots of debt taken on and no progress on what they claimed was state of the art proprietary graphite distillation process. Along with being able to mine the graphite themselves, they would be able to refine it into consumable products for energy purposes, specifically batteries.

They finally broke ground on construction of their plant. There were fears of share dillutions as late as last year. But shareholders rejected firmly. Late last year, they announced a deal with a debt provider to round out the funding to complete their plant. DD was supposed to go through January.

Well on the 28th, they announced approval from the lender and an update.

Quote:

Centennial, CO January 28, 2025: Wes****er Resources, Inc. (NYSE American: WWR), an energy technology and battery-grade natural graphite development company ("Wes****er" or the "Company"), announces that it has received final investment committee approval from the lead lender (a global financial institution), and the Company is working with Cantor Fitzgerald to finalize the overall syndication and closing of the debt financing for the Kellyton Plant. As a result, the estimated timing to close a debt financing transaction has been delayed.

"Given the 'first of its kind' nature of the Kellyton Plant, the due diligence process undertaken by the lead lender has been significant, and we are pleased to have approval from the lead lender," said Steve Cates, Wes****er's SVP-Finance and CFO. "We are focused on getting the other interested lenders through their diligence and approval process and will provide further updates on timing once we have a better line of sight to closing."

Wes****er notes the closing of the debt transaction is also subject to customary agreement on final terms, completion of the syndication, final due diligence, and loan conditions.

Kellyton Graphite Processing Plant Phase II Definitive Feasibility Study

The Company is also announcing the results of its completed Definitive Feasibility Study ("DFS") for Phase II and reminds investors that a portion of the Phase II capacity is already committed via the previously announced offtake agreements.

The estimated Phase II amounts below exclude contribution from Phase I of the Kellyton Graphite Processing Plant.

  • Estimated capital costs for Phase II is $453 million, including a 20% contingency.
  • Estimated pre-tax NPV of $1.4 billion (at an 8% discount rate).
  • Total estimated cumulative pre-tax cash flows of $6.3 billion over an estimated operating life of 35-years.
  • Estimated pre-tax IRR of approximately 31.8%.
  • Estimated annual pre-tax, cash flow of $192.6 million.
  • Planned annual production of CSPG to 37,500 metric tons (Total Kellyton capacity projected as 50,000 MT including Phase I and II).
Note the above amounts do not include any potential cost savings or synergies from the Company's Coosa Graphite Deposit. As previously disclosed, the Coosa Graphite Deposit Initial Assessment has a stand-alone estimated pre-tax NPV-8% of $229 million and an estimated pre-tax free cash flow of $714 million.
Most recently, they are acknowledging public policy and hinting that they believe its bullish for them

Quote:

Centennial, CO February 6, 2025: Wes****er Resources, Inc. (NYSE American: WWR), an energy technology and battery-grade natural graphite company ("Wes****er" or the "Company"), supports the preliminary determination of the U.S. International Trade Commission ("ITC") that China's exports of graphite have materially impeded the establishment of a U.S. domestic graphite industry.

The American Active Anode Materials Producers ("AAAMP") filed a trade case with the U.S. government in December 2024 seeking tariffs as high as 920% on imports of natural and synthetic graphite from China for use in producing lithium-ion batteries. The ITC issued a preliminary determination on January 31, 2025, which is in agreement with the AAAMP claim based on the U.S. Department of Commerce's own calculation of graphite dumping margins up to 915%.

Jon Jacobs, Wes****er's Chief Commercial Officer, commented, "This quantitative validation and rapid acknowledgment by the U.S. government that China-subsidized graphite is impeding the establishment of a U.S. industry is a huge win for U.S. producers of natural graphite anode material like Wes****er. We expect this announcement to have an immediately positive effect on our off-take interest."
Now, for the first time since 2021, the stock is actually moving productively upward, having broken resistance. The company has offtake agreements for a large portion of their initial production capacity where they will be using imported raw graphite, distilling and refining it, and selling the final product to their customers. As ntoed above, they see a path to profitability on this alone. But the next step in the project is re-developing the abandoned mine on their land, with the future implications being that they no longer have to import raw graphite, but can mine their own. They also have a phase II of their plant that will increase their offtake capacity.



I can't find the presentation anymore, but the company's conservative FMV of the company once the plant is completed and they are operating at capacity, equates to between $10 and $20 per share. But we know that stocks don't just trade on fundamentals. If there is true, apparent bullishness around the corner, you could see this pop significantly. I wouldn't be surprised to see $30 within 3-5 years. For those of us that have a considerable amount of shares, the patience could be life changing. Of course though, none of this could happen and it could resume downward into eventual bankruptcy.
techno-ag
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AG
Trump will fix it.
Heineken-Ashi
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techno-ag said:


DavysApprentice
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

WestTexasAg said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

By the way, so far in 2025, your money is still worth more invested in WWR than SPX or BTC.


What is the story on WWR?


Long story short, it was brought to the board as a mass accumulation play. It popped hard in 2020 through 2021. Many were able to make a lot of money. But many mass accumulated shares and then had the hood thrown over their head while the shorts threw them in the trunk, drove to the cemetary, and buried them alive.

For a lot of people here, this was what we experienced. Many of us averaged down, and down, and down.



The stock pretty much died. The company owns land in Alabama, a large piece of it a former graphite mine with the largest deposit in the lower 48. The company was mismanaged though. Lots of debt taken on and no progress on what they claimed was state of the art proprietary graphite distillation process. Along with being able to mine the graphite themselves, they would be able to refine it into consumable products for energy purposes, specifically batteries.

They finally broke ground on construction of their plant. There were fears of share dillutions as late as last year. But shareholders rejected firmly. Late last year, they announced a deal with a debt provider to round out the funding to complete their plant. DD was supposed to go through January.

Well on the 28th, they announced approval from the lender and an update.

Quote:

Centennial, CO January 28, 2025: Wes****er Resources, Inc. (NYSE American: WWR), an energy technology and battery-grade natural graphite development company ("Wes****er" or the "Company"), announces that it has received final investment committee approval from the lead lender (a global financial institution), and the Company is working with Cantor Fitzgerald to finalize the overall syndication and closing of the debt financing for the Kellyton Plant. As a result, the estimated timing to close a debt financing transaction has been delayed.

"Given the 'first of its kind' nature of the Kellyton Plant, the due diligence process undertaken by the lead lender has been significant, and we are pleased to have approval from the lead lender," said Steve Cates, Wes****er's SVP-Finance and CFO. "We are focused on getting the other interested lenders through their diligence and approval process and will provide further updates on timing once we have a better line of sight to closing."

Wes****er notes the closing of the debt transaction is also subject to customary agreement on final terms, completion of the syndication, final due diligence, and loan conditions.

Kellyton Graphite Processing Plant Phase II Definitive Feasibility Study

The Company is also announcing the results of its completed Definitive Feasibility Study ("DFS") for Phase II and reminds investors that a portion of the Phase II capacity is already committed via the previously announced offtake agreements.

The estimated Phase II amounts below exclude contribution from Phase I of the Kellyton Graphite Processing Plant.

  • Estimated capital costs for Phase II is $453 million, including a 20% contingency.
  • Estimated pre-tax NPV of $1.4 billion (at an 8% discount rate).
  • Total estimated cumulative pre-tax cash flows of $6.3 billion over an estimated operating life of 35-years.
  • Estimated pre-tax IRR of approximately 31.8%.
  • Estimated annual pre-tax, cash flow of $192.6 million.
  • Planned annual production of CSPG to 37,500 metric tons (Total Kellyton capacity projected as 50,000 MT including Phase I and II).
Note the above amounts do not include any potential cost savings or synergies from the Company's Coosa Graphite Deposit. As previously disclosed, the Coosa Graphite Deposit Initial Assessment has a stand-alone estimated pre-tax NPV-8% of $229 million and an estimated pre-tax free cash flow of $714 million.
Most recently, they are acknowledging public policy and hinting that they believe its bullish for them

Quote:

Centennial, CO February 6, 2025: Wes****er Resources, Inc. (NYSE American: WWR), an energy technology and battery-grade natural graphite company ("Wes****er" or the "Company"), supports the preliminary determination of the U.S. International Trade Commission ("ITC") that China's exports of graphite have materially impeded the establishment of a U.S. domestic graphite industry.

The American Active Anode Materials Producers ("AAAMP") filed a trade case with the U.S. government in December 2024 seeking tariffs as high as 920% on imports of natural and synthetic graphite from China for use in producing lithium-ion batteries. The ITC issued a preliminary determination on January 31, 2025, which is in agreement with the AAAMP claim based on the U.S. Department of Commerce's own calculation of graphite dumping margins up to 915%.

Jon Jacobs, Wes****er's Chief Commercial Officer, commented, "This quantitative validation and rapid acknowledgment by the U.S. government that China-subsidized graphite is impeding the establishment of a U.S. industry is a huge win for U.S. producers of natural graphite anode material like Wes****er. We expect this announcement to have an immediately positive effect on our off-take interest."
Now, for the first time since 2021, the stock is actually moving productively upward, having broken resistance. The company has offtake agreements for a large portion of their initial production capacity where they will be using imported raw graphite, distilling and refining it, and selling the final product to their customers. As ntoed above, they see a path to profitability on this alone. But the next step in the project is re-developing the abandoned mine on their land, with the future implications being that they no longer have to import raw graphite, but can mine their own. They also have a phase II of their plant that will increase their offtake capacity.



I can't find the presentation anymore, but the company's conservative FMV of the company once the plant is completed and they are operating at capacity, equates to between $10 and $20 per share. But we know that stocks don't just trade on fundamentals. If there is true, apparent bullishness around the corner, you could see this pop significantly. I wouldn't be surprised to see $30 within 3-5 years. For those of us that have a considerable amount of shares, the patience could be life changing. Of course though, none of this could happen and it could resume downward into eventual bankruptcy.


Probably the best description of texags WWR experience. Well done

Personally I think this becomes a big winner long term. Not sure about 30 a share but 5-10 is certainly possible if they can get off the ground.
JbKing45
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Heineken-Ashi said:

techno-ag said:





Heineken..curious to get your thoughts on the financing being a sole lender and now moving to a syndicate deal? What do you think on timing with the announcement at the end of January. I realize it's just speculation on your part but curious to get your and others opinion..
I bleed maroon
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AG
DavysApprentice said:



Probably the best description of texags WWR experience. Well done

Personally I think this becomes a big winner long term. Not sure about 30 a share but 5-10 is certainly possible if they can get off the ground.
Sounds so much nicer than "pump and dump", too.

While it may go to the moon, bankruptcy is still the odds-on favorite outcome, in my opinion. It's not an investment, it's a low-probability proposition bet.
Diggity
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AG
No more powerful drug than Hopium

Heineken-Ashi
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JbKing45 said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

techno-ag said:





Heineken..curious to get your thoughts on the financing being a sole lender and now moving to a syndicate deal? What do you think on timing with the announcement at the end of January. I realize it's just speculation on your part but curious to get your and others opinion..

I don't know. But this is a good read with a nice summary

Wes****er Resources Secures Lead Lender Approval for Graphite Plant, DFS Shows $1.4B NPV

Quote:

The investment committee approval from a global financial institution marks a important milestone for Wes****er Resources' Kellyton Graphite Processing Plant, though the extended due diligence process reflects both the project's complexity and its pioneering nature in the U.S. market. The involvement of Cantor Fitzgerald in syndication adds credibility to the financing process.

The Phase II Definitive Feasibility Study reveals robust economics with a pre-tax NPV of $1.4 billion at an 8% discount rate and an impressive IRR of 31.8%. These metrics significantly exceed typical hurdle rates for mining projects, which usually target 15-20% IRR. The capital cost of $453 million includes a prudent 20% contingency, indicating conservative planning.

Several key factors enhance the project's investment thesis:

  • The 35-year operating life with annual pre-tax cash flow of $192.6 million provides substantial long-term visibility
  • Existing offtake agreements partially secure Phase II capacity, reducing market risk
  • The total Kellyton capacity of 50,000MT positions WWR as a significant player in the domestic battery-grade graphite market
  • The potential integration with the Coosa Graphite Deposit (NPV $229 million) could create additional synergies

The delayed debt financing closure, while causing near-term uncertainty, reflects thorough due diligence appropriate for a first-of-its-kind facility in the U.S. This strategic positioning aligns with the critical minerals initiatives and domestic supply chain development for battery materials, potentially qualifying for various government incentives and support programs.
Heineken-Ashi
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I found the WWR investor presentation from September.

Wes****er-September 2024 - Gateway - (for posting)
frankm01
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Me when we start talking about where WWR might go:

Lukef
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AG
I'm surprised some private equity company hasn't come in and bought the company. 500 million cap project to collect 200 million a year?
Heineken-Ashi
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Lukef said:

I'm surprised some private equity company hasn't come in and bought the company. 500 million cap project to collect 200 million a year?
Because private equity only does deals during bull markets. Miners in all segments have seen depressed prices compared to their underlying material.

Private equity deal activity in the mining industry increased in 2024

When PE comes back with deal flow, you know you are close to the top. Happens every time.

They also don't like uncertainty. Maybe they turn their attention now that funding is near complete. But they don't wnat projects. They wants machines they can strip down for parts and sell, or they want efficient operators they can mine for returns with no trouble.
Seven Costanza
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AG
Quote:

There were fears of share dillutions as late as last year.
Correct me if I'm wrong on this (it is way outside of what I know), but their "diluted shares outstanding" has gone from around 2M in 2019 to 52M now. Does this not mean that the shares have been diluted?
Heineken-Ashi
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Seven Costanza said:

Quote:

There were fears of share dillutions as late as last year.
Correct me if I'm wrong on this (it is way outside of what I know), but their "diluted shares outstanding" has gone from around 2M in 2019 to 52M now. Does this not mean that the shares have been diluted?
Yes, they have diluted. But they wanted to do another round last year to raise money for the project funding. Instead they went the debt route.
Eliminatus
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AG
WestTexasAg said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

By the way, so far in 2025, your money is still worth more invested in WWR than SPX or BTC.


What is the story on WWR?


Ya know that old question of "If your friends jumped off a cliff, would you jump too?"

Well, TA answered that quite emphatically with WWR…

I bought in not long ago myself. Tiny position compared to most here but I just wanna belong. Just hoping all the broken and smashed bodies at the bottom cushion my own fall somewhat.
Nagler
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AG
There were also a lot of winners before WWR that lead to the cliff jumping. It wasn't just everyone running for that one.

We'd all almost got rich a few times so we were primed and ready to get rich on the next one. If I'd have hit NIO as hard as I did WWR I'd be typing this from my house in the Bahamas.
EliteZags
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AG
before that VCSY was one that was pumped here a good while before it went under, my first large near 5 figure loss which looking back wasn't that significant but can't help wondering if it psychologically held me back from doubling down heavier than I did into PLTR in the single digits after first getting in on the way down from the 20s
WestTexasAg
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AG
techno-ag said:


That's an amazing summary. Well now I know I have to buy some so I can be along for the ride with you guys........regardless of which direction it goes.

Oops. Meant to reply to Heineken's post. Yours was good too though.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Another Sunday, another Trump tariff announcement.
DC901
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He loves Sunday prime time TV announcements.
El Chupacabra
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Steel and aluminum tariffs?
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