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AMNF

30,687 Views | 152 Replies | Last: 11 days ago by Jeff99
Jeff99
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Not sure if anyone is still following the stock, but they announced their quarterly dividend plus a special dividend. Essentially, they will be paying out two quarters' worth of dividends in October.
BT1395
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AG
I'm still holding this and am in love with this company's management team!
BT1395
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AG
Stock hit a 52-week high today and looks to be running up to the next earnings release.

Decent write-up about one man's thoughts here: http://connecticutcomments.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-upcoming-earnings-report-from.html
Jeff99
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Thanks for posting that. I try to keep up with the CC blog's comments on Armanino when I can. I think his views are a little sanguine, but there's definitely value here that isn't priced into the stock. I do wish the volume on this one was a little heavier so I could feel comfortable buying more shares.
BT1395
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AG
This hit $1.00 today. If management is consistent with their actions in the past, expect them to announce a 2-1 split to keep this thing under $1.00 and avoid the listing requirement$ of a "real" stock.

Still holding with no intent of selling at any point in the near future...
maxluke
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AG
This was a solid mention on this board a few years back. I did some research and got in with a .59 average.

Thanks again Jeff (and anyone I may be forgetting) for bringing it to my attention.
Dr. Doctor
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AG
Got some and paying off well. Thanks!

~egon
Jeff99
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Even a blind squirrel is right every so often.

Seriously, I'm glad the investment has paid off for everyone. I thought that I'd sell the position once it got to $0.90, but the income has grown significantly enough that the multiple has stayed steady and it doesn't make sense to sell for me.

Besides, my yield on cost is 7% on this stock right now, so I'm not in much of a hurry to exit the position.

I'm really scratching my head about the recent rise past $1.00. This is a stock that rarely moves without news. Is potentially something else afoot? I've always suspected (without any corroboration) that the company is using the buyback to buy out family ownership so that the company could potentially be acquired.
BT1395
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AG
They blew out earnings again today. Record highs all the way around. Can't wait to see if this equates to an even healthier dividend.

I love this company's management team!
SippinHenn
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Should I buy in now, will the increase continue?
Jeff99
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It's hard to say what exactly the upside is at this point.

It's yielding 4.8% right now and its EPS is $0.09. With an EOD price of 1.06 puts it at a P/E of 11.78. Full-year EPS grew 27% from last year. Let's say the EPS grows only 11.1% to $.10. (I think that's very conservative, btw.) At a 13 P/E ratio, that puts the price at 1.30, which I think is a pretty achievable price target. I'm still not sure I'd sell it at that price considering I love the yield I have on the stock and the faith I have in management. These guys have grown the firm conservatively, but steadily and have been consistent in their commitment to shareholders with share buybacks, special dividends, and moving up a dividend in anticipation of income tax changes.

Plus, I'm earning a 7.3% yield on my cost basis, which means I can afford to wait and see what happens.

There are risks with the stock. The company's small size and low volume create liquidity risk if you take a large position. (It's kept me from growing my position much further over the years.) The company is at the mercy to some extent of distributors so there is always a potential risk there.

Congrats to BT and maxluke as I know they've been in the stock nearly as long as I have.
BT1395
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AG
Up to $1.10 today on heavy volume. Perhaps some funds are starting to pick it up now that it's > $1.00? Or maybe the solid numbers just keep attracting more and more investors. Either way, we win!
Agnzona
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I got 2K shares about 2-3 years ago after reading about it here, love this stock! Was just thinking today, I need some more!
maxluke
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AG
The stock has gotten a bit ahead of itself here and I suspect it to hit 1.15 (it may have technically already happened today) or a bit higher and pullback to 1.00 or even a bit lower in the next month or so.

I won't be selling, but it's what I'm expecting Similar to what happened when it first hit .85-.9 or so in March 2011 and pulled back ~15 to 20% in the subsequent months.
Jeff99
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I think it pulls back to as low as $1.05 or so. Not sure it falls all the way back to $1.00. If it were, I'd have to consider buying in more. I have to wonder whether the Company will raise dividends again if 1Q results continue the existing trend.
BT1395
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AG
Another great quarter with encouraging guidance going forward. Here's to $1.25 and beyond...
Agnzona
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I wish all my APPL money was moved here last summer!
Jeff99
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I'm a pretty big cheerleader for the stock, but I viewed the quarter as a push. I'm really curious to see if the second quarter is as strong as they hint it will be in the release.

I'm holding. I'm addicted to the yield and not interested in paying taxes on the gain. If the second quarter is as good as they hint, the cover will get blown off this stock.
maxluke
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AG
I agree with you Jeff, but I also think that if they blow it out next quarter it needs to be accompanied by a dividend increase in order to really keep the stock moving up.
bigtruckguy3500
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Debating adding this to my roth IRA, increasing my regular portfolio position, or just staying where I'm at. So far I'm loving this stock. Any thoughts?
Jeff99
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bigtruckguy,

It's hard to say. Due to the illiquidity (and yield) of the stock, it's one that if you buy additional shares you probably should plan on holding the shares for the long term. The high yield probably fits a Roth IRA better than a typical brokerage account. Still, I can't emphasize enough the risk of being overweight a stock trading on OTC markets. I believe there's significant upside here, but I'm not as high on the balance of risk/reward as I was when it was in the 80s.

maxluke, an increase in yield would be nice, but I'm much more interested in seeing continued growth in the top-line revenue. They have hinted in the past at new growth opportunities and I want to see those come to fruition. I feel the yield will take care of itself if the revenue is there. I have a pretty good level of trust that management will increase the dividend when they feel the time is right.
Jeff99
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http://brettonfund.com/2013-q1-shareholder-letter/

Interesting write-up from a mutual fund that has taken a stake in AMNF. This is the first mutual fund that I'm aware of taking a stake in the company. Interesting bit of news that bids well for the future.
BT1395
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AG
Just hit $1.20.

Waiting on the next dividend announcement...
Jeff99
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I was out of town last week. Just noticed the quarterly dividend was increased from $0.012 to $0.014.
BT1395
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AG
Best management team of any stock I own...which is both impressive (for them) and sad (for the big boys) at the same time.
Agnzona
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I was thinking the exact same thing today, just what could this team do with a fortune 500 company.
BT1395
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AG
$1.40 today on strong volume.
bigtruckguy3500
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Kicking myself for not adding at 1.12
TxAgIB
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AG
what is the revised price target?

is this still a buy at 1.38?
Sandman98
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AG
This board made me some money. Thank you.
Jeff99
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Today was a strong day for AMNF in spite of a pretty miserable day for the overall market.

What's the target price now? Really hard to say. If you take last year's .09 per share of earnings and apply a 15 P/E ratio - a significant discount over other companies in the food service industry (reasonable given the illiquidity of the stock to date), a price of 1.35 sounds about right.

The problem with that is the divi increase. This company has historically telegraphed positive financial results with divi increases. If we take 1Q 2013 earnings of .0233 a share and annualized them, we get to a price of 1.40 with a 15 P/E ratio. Keep in mind the second and third quarters are traditionally the best quarters for the stock. Also keep in mind the company history of special dividends. I think a lot rides on the next quarter of earnings. If they are strong as the company seems to be telegraphing, I think 1.55-1.60 is very reasonable. If earnings are so-so, it may fall back into the 1.20 range. I'm holding my shares because I am addicted to the dividend and I don't see much growth left in the overall market. I trust management, as well. Plus, as the price appreciates, you will likely see the potential for more institutional involvement.

Again, liquidity is getting better but always a risk with this stock.
TxAgIB
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AG
thanks
BT1395
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AG
Up over $1.50 now...
BT1395
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AG
More record earnings released last week. Incredible company to say the least.

The growth was fairly tame and the comments about international weakness were a bit concerning, but I think the second half of the year picks up steam thanks to the new equipment and products. I can easily see the stock in the $1.80 ballpark by the end of the year.
BT1395
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AG
Up over $1.60 now...
 
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