Down 23% after hours anyone buying this tomorrow?

http://texags.com/main/forum.reply.asp?topic_id=1862941&forum_id=57

So you give me a link to a thread that was last talked about a month ago. Thanks

you're welcome

why would you buy tomorrow?

Thanks to the person who cautioned me about NFLX. I managed to sell at little below $300 some months ago. It is $100 now!

[This message has been edited by netscape (edited 10/24/2011 7:01p).]

ummm, it's at $85 AH

What other stock is going to go down this year?

Tonto, back up the truck! LETS DO IT

I've been beating the drum on here to sell this turd since late July. They are getting squeezed in all directions (competition & costs of business) and carried an insane multiple to boot.

I set a target price buy-in price of $60 (when it was around $150 I think) and I stand by that.

Buy puts.

Lets doooo iiiiiiitt!

Back up the truck &n load up baby, call options - Dec. 2012 $200 strike price!

Starting to look ripe for some buyout speculation. If a major catalogue holder or two wants an instant entre into streaming, why not get a huge jump by buying millions of recurrently billed customers who will be thrilled by fresh content? The price is almost justifiable (that's not the same as right).

down 48 bucks this morining!

Getting their fudge packed.

That's a great idea! Let's sell fudge via USPS. Genius!

We could call it "Fudgester"

Tonto,

I dare to load up on $200 call options. Based on your previous comments, you would have better luck playing the lottery...weren't you the one saying they would turn this around when it was around 125?

I just bought some just under $77/share. In a year I will sell and take one heck of a vacation.

You are thick stonana

[This message has been edited by Tonto_Baggins (edited 10/25/2011 7:46p).]

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I just bought some just under $77/share. In a year I will sell and take one heck of a vacation.

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This stock is going to touch $50 before it touches $150 again. EPS is likely going to fall by 50% next year. Declining earnings means the end of the growth multiple, and NFLX should settle somewhere between 15 and 20 times earnings if that happens.

20 x $2 = $40 / share.

It was only a matter of time. $6 book value. Dog

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$6 book value.

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They don't have a lot of assets because they are a service provider. Right now their market cap is ~5 times EBITDA, which isn't unreasonable.

I think that they are going to take a huge earnings hit going forward. Lower earnings plus a diminished supply of greater fools equals a bad future for this stock.

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I just bought some just under $77/share. In a year I will sell and take one heck of a vacation.

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Based on what? I'm legitimately curious in what you think will cause this to rise.

I met a student/car detailer in December of last year who was taking out student loans to buy Netflix stock. I hope he sold high.

I agree Netflix has issues. It will, most likely, never see $300/share as it was at one point. However, there will still be demand for its service. People are fed up with cable services, netflix is convenient and it has a strong brand. Yes, it lost 800K subscribers but it can rectify its mistake....I forecast $150/share within a year.

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I forecast $150/share within a year.

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Based on what? They are going to lose money for a lot of 2012. At their current multiple (20x earnings, which I believe to be fair), they would need to increase net income to $7.50 per share.

IMO, they are going to be lucky to stay at $3 per share for 2012. That kind of earnings regression should send the stock price down further. Again, you'll see $50 before you see $150.

jh,

good luck to everyone who owns it. It comprises about 1% of my overall portfolio so I'm ok if its a bust.

I'm not criticizing your owning it as a speculative play. I'd just like to see your logic behind your $150 price target.

I think it's risky at this point to know with any confidence where it is going. If you believe the market is somewhat efficient then the guidance for a rough 2012 and high content costs and subscriber cancellations should be built in to the current price. If things start looking up (which they could), then the start could creep back up...of course it could easily go much much worse. I just got out of some puts to lock in some gains even though I fundamentally believe this business is totally screwed...

Gabster,

Are you still holding on to this stock?

Now they are acknowledging a likely loss for FY2012. Couple that with the potential dilution from their issuance of convertible debt, and this thing is on a crash course with $50.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45401722

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I forecast $150/share within a year.

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I love when people say "I will sell in a year and take a heck of a vacation". Then when the stock goes sour, "Well this is only 1% of my portfolio anyways, so who cares"

lol, fake bravado!

[This message has been edited by Tonto_Baggins (edited 11/22/2011 6:18p).]

Gabster43213 said:

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I agree Netflix has issues. It will, most likely, never see $300/share as it was at one point. However, there will still be demand for its service. People are fed up with cable services, netflix is convenient and it has a strong brand. Yes, it lost 800K subscribers but it can rectify its mistake....I forecast $150/share within a year.

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Went well past it (before the split))