Postcards from Elysian Fields
T.R. Sullivan

"Red scout Bill Wood watches the Rangers closely. The Reds are dying for relief help. They have been outscored 41-23 in the eighth inning."

Clearly the Rangers are sellers. Your thoughts?

Anyone who trades for a closer overpays by a mile.

Griffey

I wouldn't say the Rangers are "clearly" sellers, because that implies we're ready to start a fire sale at the beginning of June. However, I agree that we should look to move some pieces for the right price, and with a surplus of bullpen arms, Gagne should be one of those pieces.

Other than Homer Bailey, I'm not overly familiar with the Reds minor league system, and they're not giving us Bailey. The Baseball Prospectus Top 100 prospects list has a few outfielders that are interesting, but they're still a few years off from making a difference at the big league level. Jay Bruce is a 20 year old outfielder, listed as the #9 overall prospect by BP, and is currently hitting .344/.401/.633 with 9 HR and 34 RBI for the Sarasota Reds of the Florida State League (Hi A). Former sip star Drew Stubbs, 22, was given an honorable mention ranking by BP. He's in the outfield for the Dayton Dragons of the Midwest League (Low A, playing against our boys like Whittleman, Poveda, Herren, and Kiker), and he's currently at .274/.356/.435 with 6 HR and 17 RBI. On the other hand, the #53 prospect, Joey Votto, is a 23 year old first baseman currently playing for the Louisville Bats, the Reds Triple-A affiliate. Votto is hitting .299/.415/.474 thus far in the International League. I love that OBP, and though his isolated power number isn't outstanding, he's still got 6 HR and 22 RBI.

I wonder if the Reds would trade us Votto and Bruce for Gagne? On the other hand, I don't think they'd trade their two best prospects not named Homer Bailey when they're 18-30 and dead last in an awful NL Central.

But since you bring up Ohio, I think the Indians are a likely candidate to be interested in relief help. Joe Borowski has racked up a solid number of saves thus far, but his ERA and WHIP have been terrible (and as a fantasy owner of Borowski, I can speak firsthand as to this issue). The team is only a half-game behind Detroit, and a bullpen anchor like Gagne could put them in the drivers' seat for the AL Central and the wild card races. Center fielder Trevor Crowe has been a name I've seen thrown about by Jamey Newberg and others, and though he's struggled out of the gate at Double-A Akron this year (.170/.281/.239), he's the 60th best prospect in baseball according to BP.

Those are just some of the possibilities from Ohio. There's not anyone there that's going to come in and make an immediate impact for us, but Votto could serve as Tex's replacement if and when he gets traded. The others would build up some nice depth of outfield prospects, something that the team is severely lacking. Actually, since Ben Harrison got hurt in winter ball, "almost completely devoid of them" might be more appropriate.

I'd peruse the BP list more and present some other trade possibilities, but I probably need to get back to work, at least for a little while.

[This message has been edited by WestTxAg06 (edited 5/25/2007 9:01a).]

[This message has been edited by WestTxAg06 (edited 5/25/2007 11:26a).]

former Ranger farmhand Edwin Encarnacion (sp?)

WestTxAg06,

Thanks for the good info.

I have moved past the moaning & groaning stage and have embraced a blow 'em up and build for the future philosophy.

I agree with the other posters. Considering the Reds current status I doubt they are willing to trade for a closer, but if they did Votto and Bruce for Gagne would help the Rangers address two needs: outfield and a replacement for Tex.

quote:

---

former Ranger farmhand Edwin Encarnacion (sp?)

---

Encarnacion was a name I saw thrown about a few days ago, but word is the Reds won't move him at anything less than a premium. Personally, I'd hate to overpay for a struggling but talented third baseman who has some work ethic issues, especially when Blalock, Metcalf, et. al. can reasonably man that position until Young John Whittleman rides in to save the day.

There's no point in going after a 3B -- Blalock and his contract aren't going anywhere.

The assumption is this is our list of realistic trade bait:

Teixeira
Sosa
Gagne
Otsuka
Lofton


Would love to move Catalanotto or Whifferson, but thats not gonna happen with their contracts.

2B, SS, 3B and C are all set for the forseeable future.

The bullpen looks fine.

Millwood, McCarthy, Padilla and Tejeda are pretty much 4 of your 5 starting spots the next few years (like it or not, those contracts aren't going anywhere).

So in trades we need major league ready outfielders, major league ready starting pitchers, and then young arms.

mhayden,

I was suprised to see Otsuka on your list. I figure tyhe Rangers would need him after moving Gagne. Also, I thought Otsuka was locke dup for a while.

Also, you need to add a 1B to your need list because Tex is gone sooner or later.

Botts may be able to fill in at 1B if we could ever get him some AB's this year and find out

Yeah, I meant to have 1B and DH on that list as well. A true DH, not a AAA DH.

As for Otsuka, he'll be pushing 40 by the time we're competitive again, so might as well see if anyone will offer us anything good.

Botts is at least an AAAA 1B

Jay Bruce is a 20 year old outfielder, listed as the #9 overall prospect by BP, and is currently hitting .344/.401/.633 with 9 HR and 34 RBI for the Sarasota Reds of the Florida State League (Hi A). Joey Votto, is a 23 year old first baseman currently playing for the Louisville Bats, the Reds Triple-A affiliate. Votto is hitting .299/.415/.474 thus far in the International League. I love that OBP, and though his isolated power number isn't outstanding, he's still got 6 HR and 22 RBI.

I wonder if the Reds would trade us Votto and Bruce for Gagne?

- WestTxAg06



The Orioles are considered the most likely landing spot for the Baltimore-area native. Teixeira told me this spring that being an Oriole would be "a dream come true," a comment that undoubtedly excited their star-centric owner Peter Angelos. The Rangers would target young outfielder Nick Markakis in exchange.

- SI.com Jon Heyman



OK here is the plan.

Gagne for Votto (1B) & Bruce (outfield corner)

Teixeira for Markakis (outfield corner)

Botts at DH

Otsuka as closer

Spend some money off season for a starting pitcher and centerfielder.

Oh yeah, fire what's his name, the beloved but bumbling "hitting" coach


Hope for the hopeless? Y’alls thoughts?


[This message has been edited by Class of 75 (edited 5/25/2007 3:07p).]

Botts is a below average defensive OF and even worse at 1B. The fact that he has started at DH more than 10 times for AAA should tell you something...he's your DH not 1B

Botts is still an unknown at this point. In the small sample size of regular AB's we gave him in the big leagues, he couldn't hit big league pitching. I'm not saying he can't hit big league pitching (I think he can), but we don't know yet.

Which is why we need to move Sosa and start getting Botts some AB's so we don't go into next season still not knowing if Botts can produce at the ML level.

If it sounds familiar, its similar to the bottleneck we had at DH with aging veterans the last 4-5 years which caused us to move Travis Hafner and Adrian Gonzalez without giving them ample AB's to judge their talent at the ML level -- despite the fact that we were know where near competing those seasons either.

This stop-gap BS needs to stop. I'm not a huge Galloway fan, but he's right in his latest article -- every year we are in a position where we need to blow it all up, but instead we add an aging vet here or there and end up right back where we started.

Look at the Tigers and all the young players they let play/pitch out there 3 years ago. They sucked, but you know what? They got better and better.

I would rather have a team that completely sucks for 3 years and then is a playoff contender for 4-5 years then a team that at BEST will be in the race until August every year then flame out.

But hey, when you can put 30,000 in the seats having a losing team every season, just by getting some big name guys on the roster that hit homeruns, what motivation is there to change it?

Just pray... Pray... That Sosa doesn't have a minor injury that causes him to still be sitting on 599 come the trade deadline. Highly unlikely that would happen, but there's no chance in hell that Hicks would move Sosa before he gets the ticket sales that go along with Sosa's 600th.

Smoltz, McCarthy, Tejeda, Hurley and Loe as starters next year. Bring up Hurley now so he can start getting starts under his belt.


sign Hunter for CF

Botts and Cat 1B/DH unless Sosa is still here.

Swabbie
So what happens with Tex, Padilla, Gagne, and Millwood in your plan.

Well I trade them and with tex I try to Rape someone farm system. I really don't think Millwood or Padilla are untradeable. Look at the Yankees if Rocket doesn't workout, which it's looking like he may not more and more, I think the Yanks would take Millwood or Padilla off of our hands. I could see a team like Cleveland take a chance on Padilla or Millwood. If the Yankees make a move in the Rotation you could see Boston doing something as well. Otsuka would be a good set up guy for Papelbon.

Gagne' will get us something and so would Otsuka and Sosa.

I think Cat and Loften would bring us a last minute deal.

[This message has been edited by Swabbie02 (edited 5/25/2007 5:43p).]