SpaceCityAg05 said:
It is not just batting average that is an incomplete stat, but RBI and R are as well. All of those are partial indicators, which is what old school analysis looked at and drew conclusions off of. Analytic try to look at complete picture of offensive contribution, independent of teammates. RBI reflect the guys in front of you getting on base. R reflect guys behind you driving you in. Average indicates how often balls in play are turned into hits, but is blind to hit quality and how what you do when you don't put the ball in play.
Here is a comp:
Chandler Simpson
Slash lines: .305 AVG/.333 OBP/.353 SLG/.687 OPS
162 hits in 532 AB
188 Total Bases
Isaac Paredes
Slash lines: .260 AVG/.359 OBP/.435 SLG/.795 OPS
135 hits in 519 AB
226 Total Bases
I intentionally chose Paredes as a comp because he is a good hitter who is not an All-Star masher like a Yordan, Caminero, or a team's typical 2/3 hitter.
Chandler's average makes him look much better, but he only has 27 more hits than Isaac. With 12 games to play (I am going by team games played instead of individual here), Simpson gets 1.08 hits per game, while Isaac gets 0.9. Over the course of the season, Simpson gets one extra hit per week compared to Paredes.
On the flip side, Isaac has generated 38 more bases than Simpson. This is because he walks more (when not swinging the bat) and has better quality hits (SLG). This means he is on base more often to potentially be driven in and does more to drive in runners than Simpson. Now Simpson does add value with his SB, but each CS (14) offsets each SB (41) by MORE than 1 because an out on the base paths hurts more than a gained base adds.
The difference is actually bigger than it looks: the biggest flaw of OPS is that it double counts times on base. But that means it actually overrates singles/walks guys compared to sluggers. This is why wOBA is becoming more popular.
At the end of the day, Simpson is a good young player, but his WAR is defensive aided. He is a slightly below average offensive player despite hitting .300. Isaac is a high quality offensive player despite "only" hitting .260.
Well said, but I'd argue one minor point. OPS actually overweights the sluggers. Because SLG is, generally 25-50% higher than OBP, OPS is made up more of SLG than OBP.
To see this play out with a real-world example, compare Matt Olson and Yandy Diaz.
Olson: .323 OBP, .505 SLG, .828 OPS
Diaz: .366 OBP, .463 SLG, .829 OPS
Nearly Identical OPS, yet they get there in a very different way,
Olson: ..353 wOBA
Diaz: .360 wOBA
Diaz is less than .1% higher in OPS yet almost 2% better in wOBA.