PCA for MVP

2,166 Views | 39 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by AggieEP
AgRyan04
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This guy is the most electric player in baseball.....the best defensive player in baseball, on pace for 40/40... .leading his team into the post season. Cubs would have completely drowned in injuries without him this year!
AggieEP
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Biggest thing he did was to learn the strike zone better. Only walked 29 times last year and is already at 70 this year. Baseball is way easier when you don't get yourself out by chasing pitches way outside the zone.
AgRyan04
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Its astounding when you see his plate discipline numbers from last year to this year.

He's hunting his pitch and isn't guessing on every pitch and therefore chasing everything that comes out of the pitcher's hand.
AggieEP
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Yeah I watched a "what is wrong with PCA" video last year when he struggled the last month or so and it highlighted how pitchers stopped throwing strikes to him last year because of how wild his swing decisions were.

Also he hit just .188 on lefties last year and this year he's hitting .308.

Really remarkable improvement with both plate discipline and hitting lefties in just one year.
Farmer1906
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AG
The offense is similar. What's more valuable? One of the greatest defensive seasons ever in CF or Cy Young level pitching for 14 games.
AgRyan04
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Farmer1906 said:

The offense is similar. What's more valuable? One of the greatest defensive seasons ever in CF or Cy Young level pitching for 14 games.


150+ games of elite defense is way more valuable than 85 innings of great pitching.....especially since the Cubs are on their 7th, 8th, 9th starters in the rotation

But the offense favors PCA
AggieEP
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I think PCA has it in the bag if he just keeps it close offensively through the end of the season. MVP fatigue for Ohtani is real so voters will not hesitate to break a tie by voting for someone new.
Farmer1906
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AG
They're very similar. One good week either way would flip it.
AgRyan04
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He'll never catch him in stolen bases
Farmer1906
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AG
Do you honestly think SB total will sway the vote if Ohtani bases it up in something like HRs and OPS?
AgRyan04
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If Ohtani flips the numbers and leads PCA by about what PCA leads Ohtani now, yeah I think the SBs get factored in
AggieEP
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I've never seen stolen bases figure heavily in an MVP vote unless the SBs were tied into something unprecedented like Ohtani's 50/50 year or Acuna's 40/70 year, to me they are kind of like a cool stat bro thing when it comes to the voting unless the number is really big.

I personally like SBs and appreciate the value of a guy turning singles into doubles and triples by getting an extra base, but again I've never felt like it was a deciding factor when comparing two players for the MVP unless it was a huge number. So unless PCA starts swiping way more bags and gets to 50 or 60 I don't think it'll factor heavily in his favor.

AgRyan04
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While I certainly don't think it is the most important statistic, I do think it shows a more well rounded player and the voters like that. PCA is 2nd in the league in thefts.

I also think it absolutely has played a role in MVP voting many times. Go back and look at the key stats and then remove stolen based from these guy's stat lines for that season, I think they absolutely swung the needle.....I specifically left out 40/40 and 50/50 seasons.

SBs were THE reason:
1985 W.McGee
1990 R.Henderson
2001 Ichiro

SBs were a large part:
1995 B.Larkin
1997 L.Walker
1998 S.Sosa
2007 J.Rollins
2008 D.Pedroia
2017 J.Altuve

Stolen bases played a role:
1984 Ryne Sandberg
1988 Kirk Gibson

If Ohtani ends up leading PCA in key stats by the amount that PCA currently leads by, I think the stolen bases will play a role.
AggieEP
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Henderson and McGee predate my time watching baseball, so I freely grant you those cases. But the other ones I'm not so sure.

Ichiro was a phenomenon all around in 2001 and batted like .350 while leading the Mariners to 116 wins. Best player on best team used to win this award consistently and he fits that mold regardless of stolen base totals.

Sosa also hit 66 hrs, I think he won over McGwire because the Cubs were a better team. I'm not sure his 18 SBs swayed voters.

Rollins, Pedroia, Altuve I think are all cases of guys having great years and being the undisputed leader of a great team. Rollins also hit 20 triples that year making him one of the only guys in big league history with a 20/20/20/20 season (doubles, triples, homers, steals)

It'll be interesting to see how the race turns out this year. If PCA wins it'll be because he's a better all around ball player which does include his stolen bases. But I don't think the actual number of steals he has will determine if a voter picks him or Ohtani.
Sex Panther
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AG
I think this board just really doesn't like Shohei, which I totally understand, but I think that plus the MVP fatigue is factoring into this way more than people want to admit... I may be in the minority, but I don't know how this is even much of a debate.

I love PCA and think he's an absolute stud. He's awesome to watch, he's obviously one of the best defensive players in baseball, steals bases, does everything, etc. I'm not trying to take anything away from him at all.
But their offensive numbers are basically the same. The OPS+ in the graphic above is literally identical.

So then what are we arguing?
  • PCA gives you elite defense in CF and base running.
  • Shohei gave you 85+ innings of Cy Young level pitching.

I feel like people are just completely throwing that out because he hasn't pitched in a few weeks, which is insane to me. Those innings still happened. He was one of the best hitters in baseball AND one of the best pitchers in baseball at the same time.

And I think everyone has gotten so used to Shohei being Shohei that people don't even really process how ridiculous that is anymore.

My biggest thing though, is as great as PCA is - we've seen amazing 5 tool players before. We've seen great hitters who play elite defense and steal bases. Obviously PCA is having a fantastic season, but versions of that type of player have existed throughout baseball history. We've seen it plenty of times.

But what Shohei does... should not exist in modern baseball.

You should not be able to hit at an MVP level and also take the ball every 5 days and pitch at a Cy Young level. Most Major League players spend their entire lives trying to be just above average at ONE of those things.... he's elite at both. It's insane.

So if the offense is essentially a wash, I just don't understand how elite CF defense outweighs also being one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for half the season.


To me the MVP should just be the best baseball player (which I realize is heavily argued) and if two guys are basically equal offensively, I'm taking the guy who was also pitching like a Cy Young candidate and doing something that a few years ago no one thought was possible.

It sounds like Shohei is returning to the mound this weekend. If he pitches anything like he was earlier in the year for another month, then I really don't know how you vote against him. At that point you're talking about basically the same offensive season as PCA, except one guy also gave you 100+ innings of elite starting pitching.

I just think Shohei has broken everyone's brain to the point where what he's doing somehow feels normal now, and it absolutely isn't.

And I think, kind of like Jordan in the 90's, a lot of people are just tired of him winning. Add in the gambling stuff and the fact that he plays for the ****ing Dodgers and I get why people want someone else to win it.

But none of that changes what he actually did on a baseball field this year.
AggieEP
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I agree in some ways, but Ohtani can't just get the MVP every year because no one else can do what he can.

Part of the award is the "valuable" part which is often hard to quantify, but in this case PCA carrying an otherwise average Cubs team to the playoffs does seem more valuable than Shohei putting up numbers on a Dodgers team that makes the playoffs with or without him.
AgRyan04
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Sex Panther said:


It sounds like Shohei is returning to the mound this weekend. If he pitches anything like he was earlier in the year for another month, then I really don't know how you vote against him. At that point you're talking about basically the same offensive season as PCA, except one guy also gave you 100+ innings of elite starting pitching.



That's discounting the fact that PCA turns walks into doubles on the bases and plays the best defensive centerfield in recent memory (maybe ever)

in one of the more difficult ballparks to play CF in

For a team that has had to have elite defense because their pitching has been absolutely devastated by injuries (39 different pitchers used is the most in baseball).

I think 1126 innings of truly elite defense is more valuable over 162 games than 85 innings of elite pitching.

Especially when Ohtani doesn't play in the field at all when he's not pitching.

If at the beginning of July PCA had moved to DH and decided to save himself and play station to station on the bases then he wouldn't have the same argument that he has earned on the field.

AgRyan04
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Preeeeety good start today.....

2-for-2 with 2 HR and 3 RBI.....through 2 innings
AggieEP
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3 HRs, this is an MVP winning type of game. Hope the Cubs let him bat in the 8th to go for 4. They e pulled him early in some of these other blowouts recently.

ETA: They let him bat and he couldn't get a hit off a position player. Give the MVP to Ohtani I can't vote for a guy that struggles against the eephus.
AgRyan04
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The 3rd HR was the most impressive....440' opposite field bomb!

4 hits, 3 HRs, 4 runs, 6 RBIs

Only way to get him out is with the junkball

And he made what should be a 4* catch in CF
AgRyan04
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Annnnd another good first inning....

ANOTHER lead off BOMB!
AgRyan04
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And there is #2 for the night!
AgRyan04
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AgRyan04
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He's gonna have a hard time getting to 40/40 if he doesnt stop hitting so many home runs
LouisHerbertWong
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AG
Fun fact (stolen from somewhere): PCA has 18 homers since the last time Ohtani pitched.
AustinAg2K
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What happened with Ohtani and stolen bases in 2024? Did he just decide he would show everyone he could steal bases, and then after that season just decided, "Well, that was fun, but I'll never do that again."
AgRyan04
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I think that's exactly what it was. He couldn't pitch that year coming off surgery so he just DHed and that was his additional contribution to the team.
AggieEP
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Yes, among the many almost impossible skills of Ohtani is the ability for him to just decide from year to year which thing he'd like to be the best in the game at.

He said before this year that he wanted the CY, and if not for his knee flaring up he would have been a top contender. This is despite it being 2 years since he last pitched as a full time starter, but he just decided he wanted to win CY and then proceeded to basically do it.

2 years ago he decided to be essentially the best base stealer in the league and did it.

I remain convinced he could win a gold glove as an outfielder if he felt like it.

usmcbrooks
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MVPete!
AgRyan04
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PCA hit #39 last night....he needs to get a move on the stolen bases!!
Farmer1906
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AG
Ohtani's injury looks to be taking its toll. He stopped pitching in July, but the offense is being affected too.

Since July 5th
.263 BA
.344 OBP
.526 SLG
.363 wOBA
.387 xwOBA
130 wRC+

Still really good, but way down from what we expect from Ohtani.

Since Aug 11th
.200 BA
.304 OBP
.425 SLG
.321 wOBA
.364 xwOBA
102 wRC+

League avg player.

Last 6 Games
.087 BA
.250 OBP
.087 SLG
.191 wOBA
.278 xwOBA
15 wRC+

Any he's being held out of games.

Congrats to PCA. He's such a fun player to watch play.

AgRyan04
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https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1D4b6gTDZZ/
Farmer1906
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AG
AgRyan04
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Thanks, that's better

And he swiped a bag so he's at 39 HR and 33 SB
AgRyan04
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Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among the top five in home runs, triples, and stolen bases.

Willie Mays is the only other player to do that in the last 100 years.
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