Farmer1906 said:

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If we actually don't sign free agents and don't extend players, how do we spend so much money?

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And FWIW to give a serious answer. We sign plenty of FAs. But we don't generally compete for the ones that the teams we want to be competitive are going after. We end up signing from the next couple of tiers down and they don't always hit.

linkdude said:

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The last couple of years was dead money from Abreu, Montero, Pressly/Z Greinke 12.5M deferred payments (IIRC) accounting for a decent chunk of payroll. You could consider Correa's contract this year to be dead money as well.

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The most money on our payroll goes to
Altuve - extended 3x
Walker - big name free agent
Correa - traded for player with a long term deal (not quite extension of FA but kind of close)
Alvarez - extension
Hader - big name free agent

It's almost like we've been doing the exact thing he said we don't do.

txags92 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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If we actually don't sign free agents and don't extend players, how do we spend so much money?

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And FWIW to give a serious answer. We sign plenty of FAs. But we don't generally compete for the ones that the teams we want to be competitive are going after. We end up signing from the next couple of tiers down and they don't always hit.

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You mean big money signings like Tucker, Bo, Framber, & Bregman. All 4 to playoff teams. All 4 making crazy AAV. All 4 misses.

Alvarez - extension 2x

FIFY

Prince's son can run.

Jadyn Fielder RBI triple for Fayetteville! #Astros pic.twitter.com/xSMPAat9S3

— Astros Future (@AstrosFuture) July 23, 2026

Farmer1906 said:

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txags92 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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If we actually don't sign free agents and don't extend players, how do we spend so much money?

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And FWIW to give a serious answer. We sign plenty of FAs. But we don't generally compete for the ones that the teams we want to be competitive are going after. We end up signing from the next couple of tiers down and they don't always hit.

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You mean big money signings like Tucker, Bo, Framber, & Bregman. All 4 to playoff teams. All 4 making crazy AAV. All 4 misses.

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I didn't say I thought we should go that route. It is one of the possible routes if we want to be buyers instead of sellers to rebuild. I have not been super excited about Dana's ability to find value in the next tier of FAs based on his signings the last two years. Outside of Lambert, they have nearly all been flops and most are no longer on the ML roster.

I would rather see us trade players that have value before we lose them to FA and grow organically from within.

I have it from a pretty good source that Caminiti was on the juice while he was here. He didn't just stumble into them in San Diego.

tjack16 said:

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3 people on the roster are guys we extended. That's not too bad but there are quite a few guys we could still extend and be better 2-6 years down the line.

The big money we've spent in free agency has been pretty bad besides Hader.

So we definitely do spend money, we just don't necessarily spend smart money anymore

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Last week it was 4. I'd argue most teams don't have 40% of their non arb or pre arb players are extensions.

Big money guys

Good: Yordan, Hader
Mid: Carlos, Altuve, Walker (close to bad)
Bad: Imai, Javier

Altuve and Carlos are in the good for now due to fan service. They are worth a lot to the franchise (Altuve especially) in terms of fan engagement, accolades, and there's just something right about keeping your franchise icons in your uniform. Even if their numbers/availabilty don't justify it.

MaxPower said:

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I think we are getting stuck in nuance. It's not that we won't spend any money. It's that if "the window will never close" and you are a team that is going to run a perpetually crappy farm because you trade all your prospects or lose draft picks signing free agents then there's only one logical approach…..spend like a drunken sailor. You can't tell your GM, "Hey win every year but please trade all our prospects for short term rentals and make sure you stay under the luxury tax and you aren't allowed to trade guys at peak value" option. That sounds like some crap Michael Scott would say if he were the owner.

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Let's dig deeper into this. What prospects have we given up for short term rentals that came back in but us in the ass?

A few come to mind.
Vazquez for Abreu hurts. I'd argue we that move never gets made if Dusty doesn't meddle.

Teoscar for Liriano. This one wasn't too bad because we had Springer, Tucker, and the professional hitter.

I wouldn't call Cole a short term rental, but we did give up real prospects.

Both JV trades needed up working out fine. At the time we were a little worried tho.

Finally, the one that was THE WORST was the Hader trade. But we have to go 11 years back on this one.

All 3 of the those terrible trades ended up contributing in championships.

I don't think the trades have killed is. I think it's lack of development. It's the pain of losing draft picks, signing QOs, drafting late for a decade, and failing to scout (I'd argue from losing collective brainpower)

Hornbeck said:

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I have it from a pretty good source that Caminiti was on the juice while he was here. He didn't just stumble into them in San Diego.

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It is probably unfair to a few of them, but I have always just assumed that pretty much any of the top tier power hitters of that era were on juice of some kind.

Alex Bregman Vs. Isaac Paredes (2025-26):

Salary:
• Bregman: $75 M (Present-Day Value + Deferrals)
• Paredes: $15.975 M

Stats: ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/231CNOHk5V

— Javier Gonzalez (@Astros_Coverage) July 23, 2026

Dusty vetoed the Willson Contreras/Urquidy deal, right?

One might argue the 2023 WBC was worse than any trades considering Urq, Javier, and LuAce were never the same since.

While I wish we were doing better I'm not going to lie and say that seeing all these dudes who left for huge FA deals sucking doesn't warm the cockles of my heart.

Schadenfreude can be fun.

Here's how see the season from here on;
Make the playoffs: good season
Make the ALDS very good season
Make the ALCS fantastic season

Anything else time for me to buy a lottery ticket.

tjack16 said:

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Big money guys

Good: Yordan, Hader
Mid: Carlos, Altuve, Walker (close to bad)
Bad: Imai, Javier

Altuve and Carlos are in the good for now due to fan service. They are worth a lot to the franchise (Altuve especially) in terms of fan engagement, accolades, and there's just something right about keeping your franchise icons in your uniform. Even if their numbers/availabilty don't justify it.

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Altuve money was good for a long time before it's gone bad recently.

Farmer1906 said:

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MaxPower said:

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I think we are getting stuck in nuance. It's not that we won't spend any money. It's that if "the window will never close" and you are a team that is going to run a perpetually crappy farm because you trade all your prospects or lose draft picks signing free agents then there's only one logical approach…..spend like a drunken sailor. You can't tell your GM, "Hey win every year but please trade all our prospects for short term rentals and make sure you stay under the luxury tax and you aren't allowed to trade guys at peak value" option. That sounds like some crap Michael Scott would say if he were the owner.

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Let's dig deeper into this. What prospects have we given up for short term rentals that came back in but us in the ass?

A few come to mind.
Vazquez for Abreu hurts. I'd argue we that move never gets made if Dusty doesn't meddle.

Teoscar for Liriano. This one wasn't too bad because we had Springer, Tucker, and the professional hitter.

I wouldn't call Cole a short term rental, but we did give up real prospects.

Both JV trades needed up working out fine. At the time we were a little worried tho.

Finally, the one that was THE WORST was the Hader trade. But we have to go 11 years back on this one.

All 3 of the those terrible trades ended up contributing in championships.

I don't think the trades have killed is. I think it's lack of development. It's the pain of losing draft picks, signing QOs, drafting late for a decade, and failing to scout (I'd argue from losing collective brainpower)

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and a few costly and bad free agent signings.

Mr. Awesome Time said:

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Dusty vetoed the Willson Contreras/Urquidy deal, right?

One might argue the 2023 WBC was worse than any trades considering Urq, Javier, and LuAce were never the same since.

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Yup. Hard to know what would have happened but Contreras would have been a huge bat.

when the book is written about the downfall of the Astros' dynasty...

there has to be a chapter about Chas and Yainer

in 2023 Chas provided 3.4 WAR with .842 OPS, and Yainer provided 3.2 WAR with .846 OPS

but they did not develop beyond that. What happened? What did the organization fail to do to help them?

if Chas and Yainer had settled in as .740 OPS guys in the following seasons...the Astros would be just fine right now, but they fell off a cliff...and fell so quickly

I wonder if the front office brain drain and movement away from analytics accelerated their decline.

I am not saying this is the case for Chas and Yainer as you are directly asking, but I have definitely grown concerned with Dana's shortsightedness of seeking lightning in a bottle. Instead of developing, we seem to look for someone on a hot streak, promote them, and hope we can get value:
Cam Smith
Zach Cole
Lucas Spence

I am not even judging the long-term outlook of these guys, just the methodology by which they ended up on the roster.