***** Official Houston Astros 2026 Season Thread *****

2,675,691 Views | 41089 Replies | Last: 22 days ago by agdaddy04
Mathguy64
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That list of $$ versus value is the LAD advantage. Because of the stupid media rights daal MLB gave them and what we now know about how they were artificially inflating those figures and propping the media companies up with funds from other companies, they could afford to sign not just more players to higher contracts but they can afford to have half of them miss.

We can miss but it has to be lower amounts of money and a corresponding lower value player.

Frankly the Dodgers aren't any different than the clippers. They lied about the income and hid payroll with a third party.
txags92
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EastCoastAgNc said:

TarponChaser said:

Wabs said:

Mathguy64 said:

tjack16 said:

Mathguy64 said:

Of the 3 big men's sports, the chances of a NC probably go baseball > basketball > football. That football one is effectively 0.

The next NC here will be from VB, Softball, Women's Tennis or Women's Golf.


Elko will win us one.

He was gifted a decent chance last year. About the best chance since 94. And we all discovered that Marcel Reed couldn't throw a ball 5 yards in a decent breeze.

That 94 team that was ineligible was the one. If they had been eligible and cared there would not have been the tie, they would have played in a bowl, and would have won a NC.

And yet we are sticking with him this year. Should have brought in (bought) a QB. Reed is above average, but we need elite at that position. Making the playoffs again this year is 50/50 IMO. Oh well.


The BAS from y'all is the epitome of "small dick energy."


Continuing to believe that Aggie football will win it all despite years of evidence that such belief is anything other than an exercise in futility is the epitome of "small brain energy"

You could have made exactly the same argument about Astros baseball in 2016. It was never going to happen...until it did.
Ag_07
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So did I miss this?

I just had sports talk on the radio as I went out for lunch and they said the plan when CC gets back is to have him at 3B, Paredes at 2B, and Yorand and Altuve split time at LF/DH.

Reason being is CC is not comfortable DHing.

This doesn't sound like a very good idea. Like something Joe and Bagwell came up with.
Farmer1906
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txags92 said:

Farmer1906 said:

The Dodgers bloated, unachieving roster.

Player - AAV / Value per WAR (over/under)
Kyle Tucker - 57.2 M / 0.6 M (-56.6 M)
Shohei Ohtani - 46.1 M / 31.1+23.4 M (+8.4 M)
Tarik Skubal - 32 M / 34.5 M (+2.5 M)
Blake Snell - 31.4 M / 9.5 M (-21.9 M)
Tyler Glasnow - 27.3 M / 13.5 M (-13.8 M)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 27.1 M / 32.4 M (+5.3 M)
Mookie Betts - 25.6 M / 18.9 M (-6.7 M)
Freddie Freeman - 24.7 M / 27.7 M (+3.0 M)
Edwin Diaz - 21.1 M / -2.2 M (-23.3 M)
Teoscar Hernandez - 20.0 M / 3.9 M (-16.1 M)
Tanner Scott - 15.8 M / 15.0 M (-0.8 M)
Tommy Edman - 13.0 M / 12.3 M (-0.7 M)
Will Smith - 12.2 M / 7.2 M (-5.0 M)

Whether injury or underperformance, imagine having 6 players generating about 143 M less than what they're being paid. For comparison, we're about 67 M under between Correa, McCullers, Javier, Imai, and Altuve.

Where does Walker fall on that kind of scale?

AAV - 20 M
Value (based on WAR) - 11.7
We're under by around 8.3 M

To be fair, relievers, designated hitters, and first basemen have a hell of a time proving their value with WAR. As of today, there are exactly zero 4 WAR first basemen. Only Yordan has eclipsed 4 WAR as a DH.

If Walker gets hot, he would only need to reach 2.5 - 2.6 WAR to match his 20 M salary.

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Gramercy Riffs
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txags92 said:

EastCoastAgNc said:

TarponChaser said:

Wabs said:

Mathguy64 said:

tjack16 said:

Mathguy64 said:

Of the 3 big men's sports, the chances of a NC probably go baseball > basketball > football. That football one is effectively 0.

The next NC here will be from VB, Softball, Women's Tennis or Women's Golf.


Elko will win us one.

He was gifted a decent chance last year. About the best chance since 94. And we all discovered that Marcel Reed couldn't throw a ball 5 yards in a decent breeze.

That 94 team that was ineligible was the one. If they had been eligible and cared there would not have been the tie, they would have played in a bowl, and would have won a NC.

And yet we are sticking with him this year. Should have brought in (bought) a QB. Reed is above average, but we need elite at that position. Making the playoffs again this year is 50/50 IMO. Oh well.


The BAS from y'all is the epitome of "small dick energy."


Continuing to believe that Aggie football will win it all despite years of evidence that such belief is anything other than an exercise in futility is the epitome of "small brain energy"

You could have made exactly the same argument about Astros baseball in 2016. It was never going to happen...until it did.

People did in fact make that argument all the way through the trade deadline in 2017. Too many soft fans either way.
Farmer1906
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Ag_07 said:

So did I miss this?

I just had sports talk on the radio as I went out for lunch and they said the plan when CC gets back is to have him at 3B, Paredes at 2B, and Yorand and Altuve split time at LF/DH.

Reason being is CC is not comfortable DHing.

This doesn't sound like a very good idea. Like something Joe and Bagwell came up with.

We've tried Paredes at 2nd. He has been there for 25 innings this season. In that tiny sample, he did well. I still contend it isn't a great idea.

Correa is a better fielder than Paredes. If he's close to healthy, he should be playing 3B over Paredes.

I would assume it'll be a mix of Yordan at DH and LF, Altuve at 2B and DH, Paredes at 3B, DH, and 2B, and Correa at 3B. Depending on the day, field, match up, etc.

If it's Game 7 of the World Series, I would hope Yordan is LF, Correa is 3B, Altruve is 2B, and Paredes is DH. We can't afford to sit any of them.
txags92
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Gramercy Riffs said:

txags92 said:

EastCoastAgNc said:

TarponChaser said:

Wabs said:

Mathguy64 said:

tjack16 said:

Mathguy64 said:

Of the 3 big men's sports, the chances of a NC probably go baseball > basketball > football. That football one is effectively 0.

The next NC here will be from VB, Softball, Women's Tennis or Women's Golf.


Elko will win us one.

He was gifted a decent chance last year. About the best chance since 94. And we all discovered that Marcel Reed couldn't throw a ball 5 yards in a decent breeze.

That 94 team that was ineligible was the one. If they had been eligible and cared there would not have been the tie, they would have played in a bowl, and would have won a NC.

And yet we are sticking with him this year. Should have brought in (bought) a QB. Reed is above average, but we need elite at that position. Making the playoffs again this year is 50/50 IMO. Oh well.


The BAS from y'all is the epitome of "small dick energy."


Continuing to believe that Aggie football will win it all despite years of evidence that such belief is anything other than an exercise in futility is the epitome of "small brain energy"

You could have made exactly the same argument about Astros baseball in 2016. It was never going to happen...until it did.

People did in fact make that argument all the way through the trade deadline in 2017. Too many soft fans either way.

I still remember all through the playoffs and WS in 2017 waiting for the other shoe to drop. As an Astros fan since the mid-70s, something always happened to yank the glory away right before we got to celebrate. The 86 Mets series, the 05 WS, whatever it was, it was like the sportsworld conspired to let us get THIS close, and then yank it away. I just kind of sat there stunned each time a big moment went our way instead.
ruxin98
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EastCoastAgNc said:

TarponChaser said:

Wabs said:

Mathguy64 said:

tjack16 said:

Mathguy64 said:

Of the 3 big men's sports, the chances of a NC probably go baseball > basketball > football. That football one is effectively 0.

The next NC here will be from VB, Softball, Women's Tennis or Women's Golf.


Elko will win us one.

He was gifted a decent chance last year. About the best chance since 94. And we all discovered that Marcel Reed couldn't throw a ball 5 yards in a decent breeze.

That 94 team that was ineligible was the one. If they had been eligible and cared there would not have been the tie, they would have played in a bowl, and would have won a NC.

And yet we are sticking with him this year. Should have brought in (bought) a QB. Reed is above average, but we need elite at that position. Making the playoffs again this year is 50/50 IMO. Oh well.


The BAS from y'all is the epitome of "small dick energy."


Continuing to believe that Aggie football will win it all despite years of evidence that such belief is anything other than an exercise in futility is the epitome of "small brain energy"
Indiana football would like a word…

FWIW I tend to agree with you, but it's interesting to see how much more pessimistic (realistic?) people are on this board as compared to the M&W board with regard to Aggie football. Over here I'm a sunshine pumper!
linkdude
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Tags is baiting with this one
Ag_07
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Quote:

I still remember all through the playoffs and WS in 2017 waiting for the other shoe to drop.


Like in GM 1 of the WS in Dodger Stadium and Taylor leads off by hitting a HR on the first fckin pitch of the entire series?

Right then I literally thought to myself...Ah yes there it is. Fun while it lasted.
Mathguy64
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Astros baseball and Aggie football aren't the same at all.

I've watched one for 50 years and the other 45.

The Astros have had 3 very good chances in their history before the 2017 run. They were 1980, 1986 and 2005. They had have large numbers of very good multiyear runs. And then add in the 2017-2023 long term great run where they effectively played for the NC 7 straight years.

Since 1939 how many "playoff" level runs has this football team had? They have had one multi year run since I started watching in 1980 and that was the RC stretch with 1994 being the one team good enough to be a NC contender. I actually think if that team had not been put on what we now know was BS probation that they could have won it. They were that good. There have been random very good years, but last year was the first year you could really say they had a NC chance and even that was 3 wins away. The equivalent of losing in the ALDS.
txags92
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Ag_07 said:

Quote:

I still remember all through the playoffs and WS in 2017 waiting for the other shoe to drop.


Like in GM 1 of the WS in Dodger Stadium and Taylor leads off by hitting a HR on the first fckin pitch of the entire series?

Right then I literally thought to myself...Ah yes there it is. Fun while it lasted.

Yep. We had all been there before and got dropped on our heads at some point every f-in time! I still remember when we finally won the WS just sitting there in disbelief waiting to wake up or have the umpire step back out and notify us of some technicality NY just came up with to overturn the result.
Farmer1906
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Gramercy Riffs said:

txags92 said:

EastCoastAgNc said:

TarponChaser said:

Wabs said:

Mathguy64 said:

tjack16 said:

Mathguy64 said:

Of the 3 big men's sports, the chances of a NC probably go baseball > basketball > football. That football one is effectively 0.

The next NC here will be from VB, Softball, Women's Tennis or Women's Golf.


Elko will win us one.

He was gifted a decent chance last year. About the best chance since 94. And we all discovered that Marcel Reed couldn't throw a ball 5 yards in a decent breeze.

That 94 team that was ineligible was the one. If they had been eligible and cared there would not have been the tie, they would have played in a bowl, and would have won a NC.

And yet we are sticking with him this year. Should have brought in (bought) a QB. Reed is above average, but we need elite at that position. Making the playoffs again this year is 50/50 IMO. Oh well.


The BAS from y'all is the epitome of "small dick energy."


Continuing to believe that Aggie football will win it all despite years of evidence that such belief is anything other than an exercise in futility is the epitome of "small brain energy"

You could have made exactly the same argument about Astros baseball in 2016. It was never going to happen...until it did.

People did in fact make that argument all the way through the trade deadline in 2017. Too many soft fans either way.

We don't win the World Series with the roster at the trade deadline.
TREX01
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Mathguy64 said:

Of the 3 big men's sports, the chances of a NC probably go baseball > basketball > football. That football one is effectively 0.

The next NC here will be from VB, Softball, Women's Tennis or Women's Golf.

basketball? That's the biggest joke ever and automatically negates anything you have said in this thread. We can't get anyone to come to games. We have never sniffed any actual high level success and as a whole, our fanbase cares zero about basketball and knows even less. There is no path for a coach to stay here after even a slight bit of success.
Mathguy64
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TREX01 said:

Mathguy64 said:

Of the 3 big men's sports, the chances of a NC probably go baseball > basketball > football. That football one is effectively 0.

The next NC here will be from VB, Softball, Women's Tennis or Women's Golf.

basketball? That's the biggest joke ever and automatically negates anything you have said in this thread. We can't get anyone to come to games. We have never sniffed any actual high level success and as a whole, our fanbase cares zero about basketball and knows even less. There is no path for a coach to stay here after even a slight bit of success.


In the past I would have 100% agreed with you. I would have said the MBB chance was 0.00000000000. Now with NIL and the portal the chance is there. It may be 0.01 but it's there. NIL and the portal leveled the playing field. It did it for all schools in all sports. I just think it's easier to get lucky in MBB. It takes fewer players to get lucky with and injuries aren't as big.

IMHO Bucky plays a style that is conducive to getting a chance. It's the modern UNLV run and gun. He doesn't have the same players by a long shot but it's a style that is different enough that it has a small chance.
BTKAG97
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Ag_07 said:

So did I miss this?

I just had sports talk on the radio as I went out for lunch and they said the plan when CC gets back is to have him at 3B, Paredes at 2B, and Yorand and Altuve split time at LF/DH.

Reason being is CC is not comfortable DHing.

This doesn't sound like a very good idea. Like something Joe and Bagwell came up with.

Eventually the entire defense will be nothing but a bunch of guys playing out of position.
CharleyKerfeld
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Paredes with no range at second base and Pena not caring half the time at shortstop seems like a dream defense along with Diaz not being able to throw anyone out and none of our centerfielders being able to throw.
Ag_07
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Paredes at 2B isn't so much my concern.

Altuve in LF is.
tjack16
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Yordan is going to have to play a lot of left field.

Diaz C
Walker 1B
Paredes 2B
Pena SS
Correa 3B
Altuve DH
Yordan LF
Smith RF
Varsho CF

In the playoffs that'll probably have to be the rotation of defense.
linkdude
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Fermin might have enough helium to make it on some top 100 lists in the next year or two.
SpaceCityAg05
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I just don't know why you would cold turkey turn your IF defense into something untried and unfamiliar, especially with your DP combo.

The simple answer for the short term of a playoff run is to put Yordan in LF and Isaac at DH.
Faustus
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Wabs said:

Pena needs to get back on track down the stretch. 2 for 15 this series, 2 walks in the last 22 games. Not the prototypical leadoff hitter.

Cam could do us a solid as well and wake up. 6 for his last 54.

Cam gave us 2.0 bWAR in 134 games last season.

He's put up .7 bWAR in 137 games this season.
But he's still been our best true OF this season despite taking a notable step back.

Trammell has played the second most games in the OF on the team at 83 and sports a -.5 bWAR. Brice played 82 games for .1 bWAR.

Just eyeballing it I think our SP has a better bWAR than our OF (if you exclude Yordan, and maybe even then since it would just be 22 games of his bWAR, and he has a huge negative dWAR to offset his batting prowess in those 22 games).

2026 Houston Astros Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

No doubt it sucks seeing the team have to pinch hit for Cam in leverage situations.
Ag4life80
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Mathguy64 said:

Astros baseball and Aggie football aren't the same at all.

I've watched one for 50 years and the other 45.

The Astros have had 3 very good chances in their history before the 2017 run. They were 1980, 1986 and 2005. They had have large numbers of very good multiyear runs. And then add in the 2017-2023 long term great run where they effectively played for the NC 7 straight years.

Since 1939 how many "playoff" level runs has this football team had? They have had one multi year run since I started watching in 1980 and that was the RC stretch with 1994 being the one team good enough to be a NC contender. I actually think if that team had not been put on what we now know was BS probation that they could have won it. They were that good. There have been random very good years, but last year was the first year you could really say they had a NC chance and even that was 3 wins away. The equivalent of losing in the ALDS.

With the current playoff format, I think the 2012 football team would have won it all. They were flat out rollin' at the end of the year.
Astro fan since '65
Aggie fan since '75 ( '80 grad, season tix since '82)
It's been tough sledding until the Astros broke through in '17. My son and I went to game 5 of the '17 Series.
My greatest sports memory, and I've been to a lot of games between A&M and the Astros
BTKAG97
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Okert hamstring injury. King tags back in.
The D
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Okert to the dl
Ag_07
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I know this is Stros thread so I'll keep it brief but I have a friend who married into the family of a player on that 2012 team and I got a chance to chat it up with him for a while and he said he thinks the same thing.

He said everyone on that team thought they would've won it all if given the chance.

Also had some entertaining JFF stories as well.
EastCoastAgNc
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BTKAG97 said:

Okert hamstring injury. King tags back in.

That's really bad
txags92
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Ag_07 said:

I know this is Stros thread so I'll keep it brief but I have a friend who married into the family of a player on that 2012 team and I got a chance to chat it up with him for a while and he said he thinks the same thing.

He said everyone on that team thought they would've won it all if given the chance.

Also had some entertaining JFF stories as well.

Hornbeck
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Mathguy64 said:

Astros baseball and Aggie football aren't the same at all.

I've watched one for 50 years and the other 45.

The Astros have had 3 very good chances in their history before the 2017 run. They were 1980, 1986 and 2005. They had have large numbers of very good multiyear runs. And then add in the 2017-2023 long term great run where they effectively played for the NC 7 straight years.

Since 1939 how many "playoff" level runs has this football team had? They have had one multi year run since I started watching in 1980 and that was the RC stretch with 1994 being the one team good enough to be a NC contender. I actually think if that team had not been put on what we now know was BS probation that they could have won it. They were that good. There have been random very good years, but last year was the first year you could really say they had a NC chance and even that was 3 wins away. The equivalent of losing in the ALDS.

Agree with Mathguy on this one. I've been going to Aggie football games off and on since I was a wee lad watching Tony Franklin kick barefooted extra points out of the North End Zone Horseshoe.

Ags are are cursed. Cursed. See also Oilers / Texans.
Ag_07
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I'll leave it at this...JFF did whatever he wanted and no one batted an eye because when he crossed the white lines none of it mattered.

He balled out and that's all anyone cared about. Nothing we didn't really already know.
CharleyKerfeld
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Ag_07 said:

I'll leave it at this...JFF did whatever he wanted and no one batted an eye because when he crossed the white lines none of it mattered.

He balled out and that's all anyone cared about. Nothing we didn't really already know.

That's it? Details, sir, details.

Faustus
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Ag_07 said:

I'll leave it at this...JFF did whatever he wanted and no one batted an eye because when he crossed the white lines none of it mattered.

He balled out and that's all anyone cared about. Nothing we didn't really already know.

He was doing something to the white lines (but your post is well taken).
Tom Kazansky 2012
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Pretty middle school to post that pic. You can say your joke without exposing drug use in a pic.
Faustus
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I didn't mean to offend, and certainly didn't post a pic of actual drug use by JFF.

Regardless, deleted.
Wabs
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Honestly, I think Aggie baseball is the only "big 3" sports that we have a shot to win a natty. Would have in 2024 if Braden wouldn't have gotten hurt, or if our POS manager wasn't such a POS.

Just don't see it in basketball and our football program is cursed.
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