We have all our high leverage bullets to fire today, Okert-Abreu-Hader. Even if they all pitch, with the off day tomorrow they will have only worked 1-out-of-4 days going into the weekend Padres series.

Joe has managed the bullpen well over the last week, although it's easier when you're playing with bigger leads.

CharleyKerfeld said:

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Reasons to Barf
No notes.

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txags92 said:

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linkdude said:

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This seems notable.

Something I’m really happy about is that the Astros pitching staff has dropped their walk percentage from 11.3% to 8.6% since the All-Star Break.

— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) August 5, 2026

Josh Hader has only pitched once in the last six games and the Astros are 5-1. A bit of a bonus to a solid stretch of games

— Adam Spolane (@AdamSpolane) August 5, 2026

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How much of that is simply Burrows and Imai not being in the starting rotation?

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Don't forget Arrighetti

It's a little crazy that in two starts (11.2 IP) Wesneski has out-fWAR'd Blubaugh 0.3 to 0.2.

AJ has thrown 58 more innings. Since fWAR is FIP-based, as opposed to ERA, Wes has AJ beat there 3.01 to 4.20.

The team ERA is down to 4.61. It was 5.50 after they got beat down 10-2 by the Mariners on May 12 to drop to 16-27.

{{ this is the message I had typed up }} Lineup still isn't out yet. I hope I'm wrong, but I have a sneaking suspicion they might try to work an offday for Yordan with facing Taillon (the other bats can pick up the slack) and maybe PH him late in the game. This would give him back to back days off before the roadie.

Don't shoot the messenger if I'm right.

Well, instead Paredes (and Cam) gets the day off... Also I'm pretty surprised Vazquez isn't catching the day after night game

The Astros against Jameson Taillon: Peña 6, Alvarez DH, Altuve 4, Varsho 8, Trammell 9, Walker 3, Wade 7, Diaz 2, Allen 5

Brown RHP

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) August 5, 2026

That must be some directive from Crane re:Varsho in the 4 hole because it literally makes no baseball sense.

Then again, Lamonte Wade didn't make sense either so maybe it's just Joe flinging poo against a wall.

Don't know why Cam needs a day off. Seems like he's finally hitting some sort of stride. Paredes is the guy that needs a day off.

It really is amazing how bad our offense is when you get past the 1st 2 hitters in the lineup. After Pena and Yordan, you might as well put Altuve, Walker, Wade/Smith, Trammell, Varsho, and Diaz/Vasquez into a bingo roller and draw the rest of the lineup at random.

Kind of amazing we are where we are with the lack of consistency beyond Pena and Yordan.

My guess is that it's because he has less swing and miss in his game than Walker or Trammell. *shrug* kind of an "old school" two-hitter.

I still would like to see Altuve get another look leading off now that his foot is healthy after the offseason. I think being in "RBI production" mode instead of "get on base" mode changes how Altuve approaches his ABs.

I really want someone to ask Joe 'We've seen kind of a revolving door at #4 spot in the lineup. What do you like to see in a hitter at that spot and how do the pieces you have fit that?'

Because I have no idea WTF he's doing with the #4 spot.

It's baffling

I think he would settle for somebody who can put the ball into play reliably without hitting into double plays, but we seem pretty thin on those qualities in our 3-9 hitters.

Wabs said:

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Don't know why Cam needs a day off. Seems like he's finally hitting some sort of stride. Paredes is the guy that needs a day off.

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Paredes and Walker need to sit for two weeks.

Typical Espada. Wait until a guy heats up and then pour the ice bucket over him. Meanwhile, let garbage languish in the trash can. I don't smell anything.

Ag_07 said:

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I really want someone to ask Joe 'We've seen kind of a revolving door at #4 spot in the lineup. What do you like to see in a hitter at that spot and how do the pieces you have fit that?'

Because I have no idea WTF he's doing with the #4 spot.

It's baffling

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I hear you, but I'm not sure who you'd put in the 4. Maybe Trammel now, based on recent play? But who else? Walker? Cam? Diaz? Paredes?

There really isn't a great option. The main problem right now is Paredes hitting behind Yordan. Which begs another question - who bats 3rd??

Espada said Correa, who was cleared to start swinging the bat yesterday, will start with dry swings (no contact) and progress to hitting off a tee and front toss before even facing pitching. This will be a lengthy progression.

"He's doing well," Espada said.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) August 5, 2026

linkdude said:

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It's a little crazy that in two starts (11.2 IP) Wesneski has out-fWAR'd Blubaugh 0.3 to 0.2.

AJ has thrown 58 more innings. Since fWAR is FIP-based, as opposed to ERA, Wes has AJ beat there 3.01 to 4.20.

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WAR isn't exactly meant to be used that finely.

I think its safe to say Blueballs has been more valuable.
WPA 0.63 vs 0.04
RE24 7.91 vs 0.80

Watching Apollo and they said that Minnesota wanted one of the arms (Mayer or Pecko) in addition to Abreu.

So maybe it wasn't such a horrible decision to say no.....

Wabs said:

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Don't know why Cam needs a day off. Seems like he's finally hitting some sort of stride. Paredes is the guy that needs a day off.

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Taillon throws his sweeper and cutter 61% to RHH. Cam has a -9 run value vs those two pitches. It sounds like Skip is more so protecting Cam while getting another lefty in the lineup. LHH have a .924 OPS vs Taillon.

txags92 said:

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It really is amazing how bad our offense is when you get past the 1st 2 hitters in the lineup. After Pena and Yordan, you might as well put Altuve, Walker, Wade/Smith, Trammell, Varsho, and Diaz/Vasquez into a bingo roller and draw the rest of the lineup at random.

Kind of amazing we are where we are with the lack of consistency beyond Pena and Yordan.

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3rd: 21st / 102 wRC+
4th: 15th / 105 wRC+
5th: 11th / 104 wRC+
6th: 27th / 76 wRC+
7th: 16th / 95 wRC+
8th: 26th / 67 wRC+
9th: 8th / 89 wRC+
Overall 3-9: 21st / 91 wRC+

No bueno for sure. The only playoff team below us is the Guards. White Sox are just above us. Its almost like we needed to add more lineup depth at the deadline.

Confirmed - Yordan and Pena are the best 1-2 punch in baseball.

1st and 2nd in the Order wRC+
1. HOU - 156
2. WSN - 143
3. CHW - 129
4. TEX - 124
5. DET - 122
30. BOS - 89 (lol what?)

I had to look Boston up.

• Rafaela - 117 (288 PA)
• Duran - 77 (204)
• Anthony - 79 (101)
• Seigler - 53 (96)
• Contreras - 134 (78)

I think me and Yordan would still be the #1 one-two combo

Right, in the small sample it's mostly about no homers allowed in 11.2 IP. I know WAR has a margin of error somewhere around 0.5 to 1. It's nice Wes is off to a good start. Blubaugh has saved our bacon multiple times after short starts.

Farmer1906 said:

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Wabs said:

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Don't know why Cam needs a day off. Seems like he's finally hitting some sort of stride. Paredes is the guy that needs a day off.

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Taillon throws his sweeper and cutter 61% to RHH. Cam has a -9 run value vs those two pitches. It sounds like Skip is more so protecting Cam while getting another lefty in the lineup. LHH have a .924 OPS vs Taillon.

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This got me thinking: what is the best lineup we could put out based on splits?

vs RHP
1. DH Alvarez - .478 xwOBA
2. SS Pena - .356
3. LF Trammell - .347
4. C Diaz - .345
5. RF Smith - .333
6. 3B Paredes - .323
7. 1B Walker - .300
8. CF Varsho - .297
9. 2B Altuve - .264

vs LHP
1. DH Alvarez - .460 xwOBA
2. SS Pena - .366
3. 3B Paredes - .328
4. 1B Walker - .319
5. RF Smith - .309
6. 2B Altuve - .309
7. LF Dezenzo - .297
8. CF Varsho - .284
9. C Vzquez - .252

I'm with you. I would have Yordan 1 and Peña 2. That's the most protection Yordan can get in the lineup.

I'm terrified he's about to get IBBed 20 times this month alone.

linkdude said:

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Right, in the small sample it's mostly about no homers allowed in 11.2 IP. I know WAR has a margin of error somewhere around 0.5 to 1. It's nice Wes is off to a good start. Blubaugh has saved our bacon multiple times after short starts.

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I also think Blueballs gets stuck saving the rest of the bullpen and is pushed into bad situations where he would be pulled in more normal ones.

Pitches 1-25: .635 OPS against
Pitches 26-50: .784 OPS against

1st Time Facing: .657 OPS against
2nd Time Facing: .850 OPS against

Mathguy64 said:

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I'm with you. I would have Yordan 1 and Peña 2. That's the most protection Yordan can get in the lineup.

I'm terrified he's about to get IBBed 20 times this month alone.

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I wouldn't literally have that order, but I don't hate it. This is more just a ranking of the top 9 in a playable(by position) way.

Farmer1906 said:

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linkdude said:

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Right, in the small sample it's mostly about no homers allowed in 11.2 IP. I know WAR has a margin of error somewhere around 0.5 to 1. It's nice Wes is off to a good start. Blubaugh has saved our bacon multiple times after short starts.

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I also think Blueballs gets stuck saving the rest of the bullpen and is pushed into bad situations where he would be pulled in more normal ones.

Pitches 1-25: .635 OPS against
Pitches 26-50: .784 OPS against

1st Time Facing: .657 OPS against
2nd Time Facing: .850 OPS against

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So, he's not a future Starting Pitcher?

how much better would his first time thru numbers be without that nightmare inning in Colorado?

My lineups would be..

Name (AVG / OBP / SLG / OPS) - (BB / SO / GIDP) - (AVG vs RH / OBP vs RH / SLG vs RH) - (AVG vs LH / OBP vs LH / SLG vs LH)

Vs RH

Paredes (.249 / .346 / .413 / .759) - (45 / 68 / 10) - (.247 / .349 / .441) - (.258 / .337 / .355)
Pena (.317 / .376 / .519 / .895) - (20 / 54 / 2) - (.330 / .383 / .585) - (.264 / .350 / .377)
Alvarez (.329 / .443 / .644 / 1.087) - (80 / 85 / 5) - (.351 / .476 / .686) - (.270 / .347 / .532)
Trammell (.238 / .327 / .411 / .738) - (16 / 52 / 2) - (.264 / .352 / .456) - (.115 / .207 / .192)
Diaz (.265 / .290 / .422 / .711) - (7 / 35 / 6) - (.268 / .292 / .464) - (.259 / .283 / .310)
Walker (.237 / .313 / .458 / .771) - (38 / 111 / 13) - (.240 / .304 / .450) - (.226 / .347 / .488)
Varsho (.242 / .310 / .372 / .682) - (32 / 72 / 2) - (.239 / .311 / .369) - (.250 / .308 / .351)
Altuve (.241 / .304 / .389 / .693) - (31 / 80 / 15) - (.233 / .290 / .396) - (.268 / .348 / .366)
Smith (.217 / .289 / .372 / .661) - (34 / 101 / 9) - (.227 / .293 / .376) - (.186 / .279 / .371)

Bench guys who should never face a righty - EVER

Wade (.197 / .338 / .333 / .671) - (14 / 18 / 0) - (.186 / .324 / .322) - (.286 / .444 / .429)
Allen (.257 / .306 / .327 / .633) - (7 / 23 / 2) - (.227 / .281 / .240) - (.346 / .379 / .577)
Dezenzo (.213 / .281 / .307 / .587) - (3 / 21 / 1) - (.204 / .250 / .265) - (.231 / .333 / .385)

Notes: Pena is the second best player and it isn't close. If there was anyone who could reliably get on base, Pena would bat 2. Sure enough, we have Paredes with less pop, less reliable RBI conversions, much worse avg, higher GIDP potential, but he gets on base at a really good clip. What he lacks is speed. Who cares? You want your bats with pop to drive in runs. Drop the traditional "leadoff steals bases" nonsense and put your best foot forward for RBI production. Against RH, Trammell is actually surprising. With what he have left, he's your best shot at cleanup to get decent production and not ground into a double play. Next, Diaz is actually your most reliable. You're not going to avoid guys who are likely to GIDP from this point forward, so we go pure production. Walker walks more, but strikes out WAY more. After your 4-5-6 that are low OBP but good SLG, you have your twin mediocres in Varsho and Altuve. You can consider 7-8-9 a completely new order with the best that's left. All are unlikely to convert opportunities, will get on base more than they give you pop, and you consider yourself lucky if one of them is on when the lineup rolls over.

Vs LHP

Pena (.317 / .376 / .519 / .895) - (20 / 54 / 2) - (.330 / .383 / .585) - (.264 / .350 / .377)
Allen (.257 / .306 / .327 / .633) - (7 / 23 / 2) - (.227 / .281 / .240) - (.346 / .379 / .577)
Alvarez (.329 / .443 / .644 / 1.087) - (80 / 85 / 5) - (.351 / .476 / .686) - (.270 / .347 / .532)
Walker (.237 / .313 / .458 / .771) - (38 / 111 / 13) - (.240 / .304 / .450) - (.226 / .347 / .488)
Altuve (.241 / .304 / .389 / .693) - (31 / 80 / 15) - (.233 / .290 / .396) - (.268 / .348 / .366)
Paredes (.249 / .346 / .413 / .759) - (45 / 68 / 10) - (.247 / .349 / .441) - (.258 / .337 / .355)
Varsho (.242 / .310 / .372 / .682) - (32 / 72 / 2) - (.239 / .311 / .369) - (.250 / .308 / .351)
Wade (.197 / .338 / .333 / .671) - (14 / 18 / 0) - (.186 / .324 / .322) - (.286 / .444 / .429)
Diaz (.265 / .290 / .422 / .711) - (7 / 35 / 6) - (.268 / .292 / .464) - (.259 / .283 / .310)

Bench guys who should never face a lefty - EVER

Smith (.217 / .289 / .372 / .661) - (34 / 101 / 9) - (.227 / .293 / .376) - (.186 / .279 / .371)
Trammell (.238 / .327 / .411 / .738) - (16 / 52 / 2) - (.264 / .352 / .456) - (.115 / .207 / .192)

Notes: If I'm an opponent, I'm starting as many lefties as I can. Pena and Paredes love to turn on righty's. Against lefty's, something is missing. Production drops big time. I'm putting Pena in leadoff because he still gets on base against LH and there just aren't many other options. But I'm putting Allen at 3B and batting him second. Maybe not a huge sample, but the number stick out. Guy should only face lefties, and he gets results. Walker's average sucks, but the power is the best of the rest. He can bat cleanup here. 5&6 are twins with Altuve and Paredes, but Tuve's career against LH along with his speed to try and beat out GIDP give him the edge. I'd move Wade up, but the sample size is small and I'm not sure I believe the numbers. But I feel like he has to be in as no other OF options should ever face lefties except maybe Dezenzo in a pinch hit situation. And that situation needs to be dire. Varsho is pedestrian.. perfect for 7th. Vazquez does no better than Diaz despite Diaz not being good against LH, so Diaz stays and gets moved down. The big issue with this lineup is the boom is a big step back compared to against RH, and the middle of the order is GIDP machines. But again, what other choice do we have? Matthews changes nothing. Dezenzo is no clear advantage. Smith and Trammell are there when the LHP comes out.

I understand Varsho is an upgrade over our abysmal OF options, but he teally doesn't add much unless we were worried about defense. And I'm not sure we couldn't have saved the trade capital of Arrighetti and just let Meyers and Wade platoon based on RHP / LHP. The trade wasn't bad, it just doesn't move the needle at all while wasting a guy you could have used as bait elsewhere.

We needed a real bat, something more than Varsho. Based on some of the deals I saw, you're telling me you couldn't give up Arrighetti and maybe one decent prospect and some high ceiling project to get even a little more? I mean, we're not going to do what's needed and trade Paredes and Pena into overpaying market where they would net more than they should, so why are we doing something, just to do something, without actually addressing a real need?

That's what the Varsho deal feels like - do something just to do something....

This comment doesn't make sense when you break it down.

On one hand you're saying we could have easily traded for someone better for not much more. Then you say it was an overpaying market so we should have taken advantage. Could we have gotten someone better for cheap or was it an overpaying market?

all right, once again...looking for an RBI or x-base hit from Varsho today

htxag09 said:

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This comment doesn't make sense when you break it down.

On one hand you're saying we could have easily traded for someone better for not much more. Then you say it was an overpaying market so we should have taken advantage. Could we have gotten someone better for cheap or was it an overpaying market?

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Do I have to make my long-term stance clear again? I 100% believe we aren't winning **** this year, and I don't give a rats ass about winning a historically weak division. My stance is we should have traded anything of value into an overpaying market to jump start a rebuild. But Crane made it clear that was never happening. So now we're left with a highly mediocre team where outside of the top of the order it's a complete crap shoot. So what do we add? Another crap shoot. What did we give up? Something decent but that likely doesn't play a huge role in the future. Sounds ok. It's not "bad". But we didn't make ourselves materially better, and that same thing we gave up would be another arrow in the quiver for an offseason trade where we might have a chance to actually get something in return. Why shoot that arrow now? For what? And if you are going to shoot it and absolutely refuse to acknowledge the reality of the fast approaching future, then at least shoot it for a better return. We aren't rebuilding, and our best prospects have a 2028/2029 timeline for the bigs. Throw one of them in and get you something that can actually make a difference for this incredibly improbable run. Not a half year rental who gives you 2026 Altuve production.

We're going for it without actually going for it. Moving deck chairs on the titanic. This isn't Drayton where you sell everything of value, but it's the next worst. Where you do enough, and stay close enough, to keep enough butts in seats to make the bottom line acceptable as an investment. That's the driver here. Nothing we do has anything to do with trying to win or trying to better the future.