***** Official Houston Astros 2026 Season Thread *****

2,301,235 Views | 35201 Replies | Last: 14 min ago by txags92
linkdude
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tjack16
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Jim crane is like "where can I sign up for that 5 years max contract thingy"
MaxPower
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Hard to say. The Pads traded their #2 and 4 prospects to the fish just to rent Tanner Scott and get a middle reliever. Our farm is probably badly similar to what the Oadres had at the time so you are looking at Neyens / Alvarez and Mayer / Pecko.

Flaherty didn't cost much from the Dodgers but Peralta has a better track record. Kikuchi cost us our #6 and 11 with a much worse track record than Peralta.
MaxPower
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linkdude said:


Missed seasons looking highly likely with proposals like that. Why would players limit themselves to 1/3 what players are already getting paid?
Mathguy64
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Yeah that's DOA.

2027 is a goner.
BTKAG97
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tjack16 said:

Jim crane is like "where can I sign up for that 5 years max contract thingy"

It's probably his idea.
MaxPower
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Mathguy64 said:

Yeah that's DOA.

2027 is a goner.
the only way I see players accepting that is if there's no hard salary cap. If that means more guys get $50, $60, or $70M a year if they accept shorter deals they may be able to tolerate the limit on years (or at least compromise for a different number like 6 or 7 instead of 5). But if you have a hard cap AND this then that's a complete no go zone for players.

I also don't mind the QO system, I just think they need to get rid of the punishment for the signing team. It should strictly be a reward / compensation for the team losing the player.
MaxPower
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This article basically says Peralta could net one top 100 prospect. Arguably we only have one (Alvarez or Neyens, depending who you ask). You paying that price? And be already stated previously I would do something like that…..if you commit to selling off some guys in the offseason to rebuild the farm.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/06/top-35-trade-candidates-for-the-2026-deadline.html
BTKAG97
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MaxPower said:

linkdude said:



Missed seasons looking highly likely with proposals like that. Why would players limit themselves to 1/3 what players are already getting paid?

Players? Only Soto has a contract like that in the history of MLB. Ohtani is close then it drops rapidly from there.

$202 million over 5 years is a $40.4 million AAV. Only 7 contracts in the history of MLB have exceeded that amount. It's really not that bad of a proposal, but that's why the MLBPA will balk on it.
Mathguy64
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No deferrals. Maybe they should have thought of that before letting LAD defer $1B in contracts.

MaxPower
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BTKAG97 said:

MaxPower said:

linkdude said:



Missed seasons looking highly likely with proposals like that. Why would players limit themselves to 1/3 what players are already getting paid?

Players? Only Soto has a contract like that in the history of MLB. Ohtani is close then it drops rapidly from there.

$202 million over 5 years is a $40.4 million AAV. Only 7 contracts in the history of MLB have exceeded that amount. It's really not that bad of a proposal, but that's why the MLBPA will balk on it.
You must be referring to a higher AAV. Over 30 players have signed for more than $202M in MLB history and considering revenue for MLB has only gone up there's no reason to believe there won't be a lot more. 15 contracts have been over $300M or 50% higher than that max value proposed by MLB.

Like I said, players might compromise on length of contracts but they aren't going to compromise on AAV or a hard salary cap. MLB would be much better off focusing on ways to make the soft cap more effective (e.g. increasing luxury tax penalties) and redistributing / nationalizing tv revenue to solve the Dodgers problem they created and allow small markets to be more competitive.
Farmer1906
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MaxPower said:

BTKAG97 said:

MaxPower said:

linkdude said:



Missed seasons looking highly likely with proposals like that. Why would players limit themselves to 1/3 what players are already getting paid?

Players? Only Soto has a contract like that in the history of MLB. Ohtani is close then it drops rapidly from there.

$202 million over 5 years is a $40.4 million AAV. Only 7 contracts in the history of MLB have exceeded that amount. It's really not that bad of a proposal, but that's why the MLBPA will balk on it.

You must be referring to a higher AAV. Over 30 players have signed for more than $202M in MLB history and considering revenue for MLB has only gone up there's no reason to believe there won't be a lot more. 15 contracts have been over $300M or 50% higher than that max value proposed by MLB.

Like I said, players might compromise on length of contracts but they aren't going to compromise on AAV or a hard salary cap. MLB would be much better off focusing on ways to make the soft cap more effective (e.g. increasing luxury tax penalties) and redistributing / nationalizing tv revenue to solve the Dodgers problem they created and allow small markets to be more competitive.

I get your point, but it's not quite apples to apples. You're counting all players in history, not just free agents going to new teams. The same team would offer 265 M & an early extension could be up to 500 M.

I don't think the players will go for it, but I also like the idea of the original team having an edge on their offer or extension.

I also like that the deferred money deals go away.

If this is a starting point, why not counter with max deals being 8 years - 400 M. Maybe there is some kind of settlement in the middle.
txags11
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txags11
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Abreu is also back..I'm assuming it was passport issues
MaxPower
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Agreed that's why I was saying players may compromise on the number of years and the deferrals but not a hard cap. Candidly there's no point in really discussing individual contract rules until they have sorted out the cap issue.
CharleyKerfeld
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txags11 said:



Lots of Joey, no Jake or Diaz.

W
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I give the owners credit for trying

the mega-contracts are horrible for them

80-90% bust or disappoint
SpaceCityAg05
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Frankly, I think the contract length is a bigger issue right now than AAV anyways. The teams with money they can light on fire can absorb the hits from the 45 year old guy getting paid to produce -2.0 WAR, so they are incentivized to give out the 10+ year deals that price out reasonable competition.

I agree that Crane would be more likely to compete on AAV with certain stars than he would be to give in on long-term deals.

Because of the wild west, every attempt to regulate is going to cause a shutdown by the union, but it may be necessary at this point.

Instead of a hard cap, though, you could look at a series of steps:
1) Max length (such as 5 as proposed)
2) Tougher tax thresholds that cost draft picks plus money (to kill long term sustainability for teams that spend like Russian oligarchs). However, raise the tax threshold to allow more room for penalty-free spending.
3) The equivalent of Bird rights in the NBA - give opportunity for longer and higher AAV deals to stay with the team you started with. Essentially have Max and SuperMax deals available.
4) Eliminate the draft pick loss for signing QO FAs. Keep the comp picks, but eliminate the penalty.
5) Salary floor to bring up bottom end spending to compensate for lost money on max end deals.
Mathguy64
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W said:

I give the owners credit for trying

the mega-contracts are horrible for them

80-90% bust or disappoint


Owners don't have to give them out. Or defer $1B in them. Rich "want to win at all costs and I don't care" owners will always push the financial envelope to the detriment of the others. The only way to combat that is a hard cap and floor. Which will never happen.
BTKAG97
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MaxPower said:

BTKAG97 said:

MaxPower said:

linkdude said:



Missed seasons looking highly likely with proposals like that. Why would players limit themselves to 1/3 what players are already getting paid?

Players? Only Soto has a contract like that in the history of MLB. Ohtani is close then it drops rapidly from there.

$202 million over 5 years is a $40.4 million AAV. Only 7 contracts in the history of MLB have exceeded that amount. It's really not that bad of a proposal, but that's why the MLBPA will balk on it.

You must be referring to a higher AAV. Over 30 players have signed for more than $202M in MLB history and considering revenue for MLB has only gone up there's no reason to believe there won't be a lot more. 15 contracts have been over $300M or 50% higher than that max value proposed by MLB.

Like I said, players might compromise on length of contracts but they aren't going to compromise on AAV or a hard salary cap. MLB would be much better off focusing on ways to make the soft cap more effective (e.g. increasing luxury tax penalties) and redistributing / nationalizing tv revenue to solve the Dodgers problem they created and allow small markets to be more competitive.


My take is the Average Annual Value (AAV) of a contract is better than the length of a contract. Players may disagree given only 10% of MLB players (out of ~23,000) have ever reached the 10 year service mark.

If I think I will make the 10 year mark then I would prefer two 5 year contracts for $202 million each over a 10 year contract for $300 million. If I don't think I will make the 10 year mark, then yes, I'll take the $300 million.


Again, only 7 contracts in the history of MLB have exceeded $40.4 million per year therefore that request by the owners will only impact a very small fraction of the player base, but I did admit the MLBPA will still balk at it the proposal.

https://www.mlb.com/news/largest-contracts-in-mlb-history-c300060780

Top 10 free-agent contracts by average annual value

  • 1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers: $70 million (2024-33)
  • 2. Kyle Tucker, Dodgers: $60 million (2026-29)
  • 3. Juan Soto, Mets: $51 million (2025-39)
  • 4-T. Max Scherzer, Mets: $43,333,333 (2022-24)
  • 4-T. Justin Verlander, Mets: $43,333,333 (2023-24)
  • 6. Bo Bichette, Mets: $42 million (2026-28)
  • 7-T. Alex Bregman, Red Sox: $40 million (2025-27)
  • 7-T. Aaron Judge, Yankees: $40 million (2023-31)
  • 9. Framber Valdez, Tigers: $38.33 million (2026-28)
  • 10. Jacob deGrom, Rangers: $37 million (2023-27)
redline248
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Quote:

no Jake or Diaz

Yainer since coming back (6 games)

.286/.348/.476, wRC+ 130 and, you'll never believe it, 8.7% walk rate!
Mathguy64
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I'm watchchinh soccer all day and I know Kerfeld is busy so I figured I'll just preload some things.










MaxPower
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Your opinion and the owner's opinions of what's best for the players is irrelevant. If players thought short-term contracts with high AAV's were best for them then that would be the type of contracts they would already be signing.
mwm
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What flavor of Imai will we get tonight?
Faustus
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BTKAG97 said:

MaxPower said:

BTKAG97 said:

MaxPower said:

linkdude said:



Missed seasons looking highly likely with proposals like that. Why would players limit themselves to 1/3 what players are already getting paid?

Players? Only Soto has a contract like that in the history of MLB. Ohtani is close then it drops rapidly from there.

$202 million over 5 years is a $40.4 million AAV. Only 7 contracts in the history of MLB have exceeded that amount. It's really not that bad of a proposal, but that's why the MLBPA will balk on it.

You must be referring to a higher AAV. Over 30 players have signed for more than $202M in MLB history and considering revenue for MLB has only gone up there's no reason to believe there won't be a lot more. 15 contracts have been over $300M or 50% higher than that max value proposed by MLB.

Like I said, players might compromise on length of contracts but they aren't going to compromise on AAV or a hard salary cap. MLB would be much better off focusing on ways to make the soft cap more effective (e.g. increasing luxury tax penalties) and redistributing / nationalizing tv revenue to solve the Dodgers problem they created and allow small markets to be more competitive.


My take is the Average Annual Value (AAV) of a contract is better than the length of a contract. Players may disagree given only 10% of MLB players (out of ~23,000) have ever reached the 10 year service mark.

If I think I will make the 10 year mark then I would prefer two 5 year contracts for $202 million each over a 10 year contract for $300 million. If I don't think I will make the 10 year mark, then yes, I'll take the $300 million.


Again, only 7 contracts in the history of MLB have exceeded $40.4 million per year therefore that request by the owners will only impact a very small fraction of the player base, but I did admit the MLBPA will still balk at it the proposal.

https://www.mlb.com/news/largest-contracts-in-mlb-history-c300060780

Top 10 free-agent contracts by average annual value

  • 1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers: $70 million (2024-33)
  • 2. Kyle Tucker, Dodgers: $60 million (2026-29)
  • 3. Juan Soto, Mets: $51 million (2025-39)
  • 4-T. Max Scherzer, Mets: $43,333,333 (2022-24)
  • 4-T. Justin Verlander, Mets: $43,333,333 (2023-24)
  • 6. Bo Bichette, Mets: $42 million (2026-28)
  • 7-T. Alex Bregman, Red Sox: $40 million (2025-27)
  • 7-T. Aaron Judge, Yankees: $40 million (2023-31)
  • 9. Framber Valdez, Tigers: $38.33 million (2026-28)
  • 10. Jacob deGrom, Rangers: $37 million (2023-27)



Saying in the history of baseball is less meaningful than the fact that all 7 were inked in the last four years. That is highly suggestive that cresting that $ AAV is the new norm for top end contracts and if not artificially capped it will only continue to increase.
SeanDaAg2005
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Terrible challenge
Bonfired
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OK, that was pretty slick by Imai…
linkdude
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4 Ks thru two for Imai
txags11
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Ok Imai!
tjack16
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Burrows and Imai looking like the second coming of JV/Cole this week
BTKAG97
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MaxPower said:

Your opinion and the owner's opinions of what's best for the players is irrelevant. If players thought short-term contracts with high AAV's were best for them then that would be the type of contracts they would already be signing.

All I said is it was a resonable proposal. You being offended and argumentative about my comment is strange.

Also, only 2-13% of FA contracts exceed 5 years.

Anyway, Imai is pitching great right now so let's enjoy his performance while it lasts.

SeanDaAg2005
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Uhhh guys
txags11
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TRAMMELL!! Gets the good guys on the board
BTKAG97
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Bye Bye Perfecto! Trammel Bomb!

Thank you Mark Berman for the jinx.

mwm
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Finally. Trammell needs to play more.
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