***Official Houston Astros 2025-26 Offseason Thread***

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Farmer1906
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3:18p, 2/9/26
AG
Popcorn ain't free.
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Hub `93
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 4:08p, 2/9/26
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:

This is so insanely stupid... Way to go Robbie

When you're struggling to retain fans, much less make new ones, a sure fire path to success is to make it harder and/or more expensive for people to access your product. Good job, good effort,
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B-Rabbit
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4:53p, 2/9/26
AG
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txags92
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In reply to B-Rabbit • 5:17p, 2/9/26
AG
B-Rabbit said:

Ketch is gonna have to start talking people off the ledge before the pitchers and catchers even report.
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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to B-Rabbit • 5:30p, 2/9/26
AG
B-Rabbit said:

This would be...bad. Parades for a closer? Hey Padres, give us Mason Miller for Parades
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CharleyKerfeld
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In reply to B-Rabbit • 5:31p, 2/9/26
B-Rabbit said:

These sort of updates baffle/enrage me. Shouldn't they know like every week how their players are doing/feeling?

It's not like the team office shuts down for the winter and hibernates.
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txags92
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In reply to CharleyKerfeld • 5:35p, 2/9/26
AG
CharleyKerfeld said:
B-Rabbit said:

These sort of updates baffle/enrage me. Shouldn't they know like every week how their players are doing/feeling?

It's not like the team office shuts down for the winter and hibernates.

My first thought when I saw it pop up on FB was that it was a click bait meant to make people think he had previously unreported issues. Every pitcher right now is doing light throwing and starting to work up, so you could say exactly the same thing...we will know in a few days how it is going. I am hoping this is nothing but clickbait.
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linkdude
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5:35p, 2/9/26
AG
to me it's just fluff until we hear from someone like Chandler who has feet on the ground. I'm sure buster heard it from someone reputable, but idk what to make of it so I simply won't have an opinion
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tjack16
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5:44p, 2/9/26
AG
We need a full season of Hader being as elite as he was last year. That closer by committee end to the season was brutal last year
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TRM
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In reply to B-Rabbit • 6:21p, 2/9/26
AG
This is what I was worried about if we traded away Abreu and Hader's health being an unknown.
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to TRM • 6:28p, 2/9/26
AG
TRM said:
This is what I was worried about if we traded away Abreu and Hader's health being an unknown.
This is why not resigning Chas is a huge mistake….
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superaggie73
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In reply to TRM • 6:33p, 2/9/26
AG
TRM said:
This is what I was worried about if we traded away Abreu and Hader's health being an unknown.


I know it seems very unlikely, but I have a strong gut feeling that Lance becomes a stud reliever this year. Espada just has to avoid using him in back to back nights.
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iBrad
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In reply to superaggie73 • 8:08p, 2/9/26
AG
I expect to get absolutely nothing from Lance. That way, any contribution is a pleasant surprise.
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AggiEE
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In reply to superaggie73 • 8:24p, 2/9/26
superaggie73 said:
TRM said:
This is what I was worried about if we traded away Abreu and Hader's health being an unknown.


I know it seems very unlikely, but I have a strong gut feeling that Lance becomes a stud reliever this year. Espada just has to avoid using him in back to back nights.


Just don't see it, he doesn't have as much swing and miss and he struggled with getting batters out and walks. Command and lower velo a problem.

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Feeder Road
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9:11p, 2/9/26
AG
Relax guys it's a long season and there's no reason to hit the panic button yet
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W
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9:30p, 2/9/26
AG
oh no, Hader throwing on the dreaded "flat ground"

shades of Lance year after year
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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to Feeder Road • 10:05p, 2/9/26
AG
Feeder Road said:
Relax guys it's a long season and there's no reason to hit the panic button yet

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EastCoastAgNc
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10:42p, 2/9/26
AG
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redline248
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 10:49p, 2/9/26
AG
It's not guaranteed b/c there's no one left worth it in return?
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Marvin
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7:05a
AG
On the eve of the first report date, here are the latest win projections I could find for the Astros (division rank):

87 (2nd)- Team Rankings
86.5 (2nd)- DraftKings Sportsbook
86.2 (2nd)- ESPN Stock Watch
85.6 (2nd)- Baseball Prospectus
85.5 (2nd)- BetMGM
85.5 (2nd)- Caesar's
84 (3rd)- Yahoo
81 (2nd)- Fangraphs Power Rankings
80.9 (3rd)- EV Analytics

86 seems to be the consensus, which may put the Astros in the conversation for the last wildcard slot. Dana will have some interesting decisions to make around the trade deadline.
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agproducer
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In reply to Marvin • 7:17a
AG
Marvin said:
On the eve of the first report date, here are the latest win projections I could find for the Astros (division rank):

87 (2nd)- Team Rankings
86.5 (2nd)- DraftKings Sportsbook
86.2 (2nd)- ESPN Stock Watch
85.6 (2nd)- Baseball Prospectus
85.5 (2nd)- BetMGM
85.5 (2nd)- Caesar's
84 (3rd)- Yahoo
81 (2nd)- Fangraphs Power Rankings
80.9 (3rd)- EV Analytics

86 seems to be the consensus, which may put the Astros in the conversation for the last wildcard slot. Dana will have some interesting decisions to make around the trade deadline.


I think projections are a good guide, but I don't think they tell the whole story.

I'd like to see the projections from the last few years and compare them to actual record at the end. I'm not able to find the comparison. Maybe someone smarter than me can. I suspect the deviation from the beginning projections is +/- 5 games. That's just a guess without any numbers to back it up.

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tjack16
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7:57a
AG
88-74 is my pick if we stay relatively healthy. Getting final wild card spot
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Marvin
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In reply to agproducer • 8:31a
AG
agproducer said:
Marvin said:
On the eve of the first report date, here are the latest win projections I could find for the Astros (division rank):

87 (2nd)- Team Rankings
86.5 (2nd)- DraftKings Sportsbook
86.2 (2nd)- ESPN Stock Watch
85.6 (2nd)- Baseball Prospectus
85.5 (2nd)- BetMGM
85.5 (2nd)- Caesar's
84 (3rd)- Yahoo
81 (2nd)- Fangraphs Power Rankings
80.9 (3rd)- EV Analytics

86 seems to be the consensus, which may put the Astros in the conversation for the last wildcard slot. Dana will have some interesting decisions to make around the trade deadline.


I think projections are a good guide, but I don't think they tell the whole story.

I'd like to see the projections from the last few years and compare them to actual record at the end. I'm not able to find the comparison. Maybe someone smarter than me can. I suspect the deviation from the beginning projections is +/- 5 games. That's just a guess without any numbers to back it up.



Well, they are called "projections" for a reason! Just offering a talking point this morning beyond a Paredes trade, haha.

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Marvin
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In reply to tjack16 • 8:36a
AG
tjack16 said:
88-74 is my pick if we stay relatively healthy. Getting final wild card spot

I'm sticking with 84. I think it would take very good health, continued progress by Cam, no regression by Jake, and a few of the new pitchers exceeding expectations to push for a pennant and serious playoff run. It might not take a collective lottery ticket like the Rangers had several years ago, but it would be close.
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Dr. Doctor
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8:45a
AG
I still would like to see Kwan come to the 'tine. I think he could do well here.

Don't know about his control and costs, but I like that three-way trade.

~egon
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CharleyKerfeld
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In reply to tjack16 • 8:49a
tjack16 said:
88-74 is my pick if we stay relatively healthy. Getting final wild card spot

SOON
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tjack16
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In reply to Marvin • 9:05a
AG
Marvin said:
tjack16 said:
88-74 is my pick if we stay relatively healthy. Getting final wild card spot

I'm sticking with 84. I think it would take very good health, continued progress by Cam, no regression by Jake, and a few of the new pitchers exceeding expectations to push for a pennant and serious playoff run. It might not take a collective lottery ticket like the Rangers had several years ago, but it would be close.


84 wins would SUCK

I just want one more decent playoff run with Altuve, Yordan and Correa. Even if it's just winning the wild card series and losing in the ALDS
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Farmer1906
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9:10a
AG
I think the season will mostly hinge on 2 main items, the availability of Alvarez and Brown. If they both playing 80% of the time, we'll get to 90. If they won't then we'll probably be in the mid 80s.
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texasaggie2015
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9:17a
AG
I think a lot of folks are a little too down on this team IMO.

If the Astros had the 15th best injury luck in the league (hell... probably even 20th) they would have been a playoff team last year. You could even make a case that if Yordan just played 10 more games they would have gotten in.

It's certainly not a sure thing and I'm not saying this team will be nearly as dominate as some of the Astros teams in recent past - but if they're able to stay relatively healthy, they will very likely be a playoff team.
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agproducer
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In reply to Marvin • 9:41a
AG
Marvin said:
agproducer said:
Marvin said:
On the eve of the first report date, here are the latest win projections I could find for the Astros (division rank):

87 (2nd)- Team Rankings
86.5 (2nd)- DraftKings Sportsbook
86.2 (2nd)- ESPN Stock Watch
85.6 (2nd)- Baseball Prospectus
85.5 (2nd)- BetMGM
85.5 (2nd)- Caesar's
84 (3rd)- Yahoo
81 (2nd)- Fangraphs Power Rankings
80.9 (3rd)- EV Analytics

86 seems to be the consensus, which may put the Astros in the conversation for the last wildcard slot. Dana will have some interesting decisions to make around the trade deadline.


I think projections are a good guide, but I don't think they tell the whole story.

I'd like to see the projections from the last few years and compare them to actual record at the end. I'm not able to find the comparison. Maybe someone smarter than me can. I suspect the deviation from the beginning projections is +/- 5 games. That's just a guess without any numbers to back it up.



Well, they are called "projections" for a reason! Just offering a talking point this morning beyond a Paredes trade, haha.


Oh, I wasn't dogging your post -- just questioning projections.

I think this team can win 92 on the high end. I think 84 on the low end.

I think they end up 90-72.
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BCEDAg
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10:01a
AG
89-73 is my guess. All depends on health status of Yordan, Correa and pitching staff.
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Hornbeck
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10:10a
AG
I'm in for 90-72. Let the "sunshine pumper" jokes commence.
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tjack16
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10:18a
AG
88-74 but I think anywhere between 85-92 wins wouldn't surprise me depending on health + some guys taking a next step (Diaz, Cam, Arighetti)
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txags92
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10:35a
AG
84-78 for me. So basically the same team, but a year older and without our 2nd best pitcher. And we expect to have fewer injuries despite the fact that Yordan didn't actually get his hand fixed and Paredes decided not to get his hamstring repaired. I am unfortunately pessimistic that things will be too different with our major divisional rivals improving themselves while we stood pat and got a year older. I don't expect Pena and Correa to survive facing the Seattle staff unscathed since they always plunk us and we never retaliate. I hope I get to eat crow at the end of the season, but I am not feeling it with this team or their #Chasethefight hashtag. I expect us to be chasing the fight for the last wildcard spot.
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EastCoastAgNc
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10:39a
AG
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