***** Official Houston Astros 2024-2025 Offseason Thread *****

839,936 Views | 9297 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Mr. Awesome Time
EastCoastAgNc
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Farmer1906 said:

As constructed now, this is how I'm leaning. I really hope we pull off one more move.

What kind of move are you thinking? My uninformed gut feeling says we aren't getting Arenado, and we'd have to give up a lot in the farm for anyone else of value.
Farmer1906
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EastCoastAgNc said:

Farmer1906 said:

As constructed now, this is how I'm leaning. I really hope we pull off one more move.

What kind of move are you thinking? My uninformed gut feeling says we aren't getting Arenado, and we'd have to give up a lot in the farm for anyone else of value.


I'm okay with giving up major pieces not named Smith. I've said it all offseason, I want Donovan. Lowe from the Rays makes sense.
EastCoastAgNc
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Wabs
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Farmer1906 said:

EastCoastAgNc said:

Farmer1906 said:

As constructed now, this is how I'm leaning. I really hope we pull off one more move.

What kind of move are you thinking? My uninformed gut feeling says we aren't getting Arenado, and we'd have to give up a lot in the farm for anyone else of value.


I'm okay with giving up major pieces not named Smith. I've said it all offseason, I want Donovan. Lowe from the Rays makes sense.
What is the thinking on what we'd have to give up to get Donovan? Spaghetti, Melton, plus?
AustinCountyAg
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The Original Houston 1836 said:

Smith's only options to make the big club would be someone suffering a season-ending injury or if the team was absolutely terrible and was trying to get asses in the seats for the season.

Smith just turned 22 2 weeks ago. He's played 5 games at the AA level and zero at AAA. I love that he's crushing it, but he's mostly crushing it against guys that he'll be seeing in AA later this year. If he goes to Corpus and tears it up, move him up to Sugarland in May or June. If he does it there, then he's 30 minutes away (or 4 hours during rush hour) when someone goes on the DL.

Rushing him up just doesn't make sense barring those first two circumstances. The Orioles rushed Jackson Holliday up last year when he was only 20 because he was having a solid first half in AAA, and paid for it with him looking completely overmatched at the plate. The guy's "best" month was hitting .219 in August.

Looking back at Yordan's call-up in 2019 when he was the same age Smith is now, Yordan had played 250 games in the minors and 74 more in foreign leagues. In 2018, he was at Corpus for half a season and killed it, then went to AAA Fresno and was good but not great. He started 2019 in Round Rock and was hitting .343 with a 1.185 OPS through 56 games when he got called up.

That's the trajectory that Smith should be on. If he crushes in in AA or AAA to start this year, move him up to the next level after 60 games.


yes, but the 2019 Astros team was possibly the best ever assembled, even before yordan. It doesn't compare imo. If our outfield is sucking which it is looking like it damn well may let Smith play, IF he continues on the path he is on. Not saying I'd rush him up, but if it is early June/late April and Meyers/Chas are batting under .200 and Smith is showing flashes I'd bring him up.
EastCoastAgNc
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Mr. Awesome Time
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I'm ready to move on from any Arenado deal at this point, not that I think it'll happen anyway.
superaggie73
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EastCoastAgNc said:




I haven't seen much on how he's doing this spring. Does he look like an option to start at 2nd? If so, that's huge because Dubon should not be a starter. Just let Rodgers give .260 with 15-20 bombs and a .750 OPS and elite defense. That's all we need.
EastCoastAgNc
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superaggie73 said:

EastCoastAgNc said:




I haven't seen much on how he's doing this spring. Does he look like an option to start at 2nd? If so, that's huge because Dubon should not be a starter. Just let Rodgers give .260 with 15-20 bombs and a .750 OPS and elite defense. That's all we need.
9 plate appearances, 2 strikeouts, 1 walk, 2 hits. Too small of a sample size to make a decision.
iamtheglove
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Mr. Awesome Time said:

Dubon needs to stay in the utility role and Rodgers get the majority of starts at 2nd. Mo should get plenty of PT with this current OF.


I also hope that we fully embrace platooning and matchups in the OF with a healthy Gamel rather than just sitting there and watching Jake and Chaz get rung up again and again.
The Original Houston 1836
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I do think Chas will bounce back, assuming he's healthy, and be a high teens guy in HR and steals. I have much less confidence in Jake hitting anything other than .219-.227.


I'd feel a lot more confident if they were both 25 right now. Jake will be 29 in June and has played a remarkable # of games for not having been good since 2021 . Chas will be 30 in April.
Mr.Bond
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Safe to assume nolan to houston is dead?
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

Mr.Bond
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Wild to think dubon is going to be our primary 2B this year if so
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

EastCoastAgNc
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Prosperdick
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gambochaman said:

Maybe the easiest walkoff today
I don't play but it seems every day is the easiest walkoff...are they ever difficult lol.
RED AG 98
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Prosperdick said:

gambochaman said:

Maybe the easiest walkoff today
I don't play but it seems every day is the easiest walkoff...are they ever difficult lol.
Completely depends on years of fandom or what level of history nerd you are. Given the number of people on this thread, that's going to change basically every time hence the daily "that was easy" post.
W
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among the many, many problems with rolling out Chas, Jake, and Dubon...

it pushes Pena (and his infield singles) into the 6-hole
texasaggie2015
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I am so freaking excited to walk out of my office around noon on opening day and take that first sip of beer at Woodrow's
Hornbeck
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W said:

among the many, many problems with rolling out Chas, Jake, and Dubon...

it pushes Pena (and his infield singles) into the 6-hole


Peña was very promising to start, with some pop. Now, the book is out on him, and while he improved in 2024 over his sophomore slump, I have to hope for more from him.
Farmer1906
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Wabs said:

Farmer1906 said:

EastCoastAgNc said:

Farmer1906 said:

As constructed now, this is how I'm leaning. I really hope we pull off one more move.

What kind of move are you thinking? My uninformed gut feeling says we aren't getting Arenado, and we'd have to give up a lot in the farm for anyone else of value.


I'm okay with giving up major pieces not named Smith. I've said it all offseason, I want Donovan. Lowe from the Rays makes sense.
What is the thinking on what we'd have to give up to get Donovan? Spaghetti, Melton, plus?
I think a combo of Spaghetti and Melton could get it done, assuming the Cards value Melton like he's ranked.
Beat40
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Hornbeck said:

W said:

among the many, many problems with rolling out Chas, Jake, and Dubon...

it pushes Pena (and his infield singles) into the 6-hole


Peña was very promising to start, with some pop. Now, the book is out on him, and while he improved in 2024 over his sophomore slump, I have to hope for more from him.
I think this board is too hard on Pena.

One thing super encouraging about Pena is his SO % has dropped each year from 2022.
2022 - 24.4%
2023 - 20.3%
2024 - 17.1%

BB% went down in 2024, but 2023 could be an outlier. Need more data.
2022 - 3.9%
2023 - 6.8%
2024 - 3.8%

His line drive % decreased each year from 2022.
2022 - 25.3%
2023 - 22.9 %
2024 - 21.8%

If he can keep the strikeouts to around 17%, or even improve to 15%/16%, get the walk rate back up to near 6%, he can get his OPS closer to .750. Get his line drive % back up to around 25% and maybe he can push his OPS closer to .800. He'd be a really solid 5th or 6th hitter.

He's currently league average for SS in terns of OPS+, sitting right at 100.

I'm pretty hopeful for Jeremy this season.
Farmer1906
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Beat40 said:

Hornbeck said:

W said:

among the many, many problems with rolling out Chas, Jake, and Dubon...

it pushes Pena (and his infield singles) into the 6-hole


Peña was very promising to start, with some pop. Now, the book is out on him, and while he improved in 2024 over his sophomore slump, I have to hope for more from him.
I think this board is too hard on Pena.

One thing super encouraging about Pena is his SO % has dropped each year from 2022.
2022 - 24.4%
2023 - 20.3%
2024 - 17.1%

BB% went down in 2024, but 2023 could be an outlier. Need more data.
2022 - 3.9%
2023 - 6.8%
2024 - 3.8%

His line drive % decreased each year from 2022.
2022 - 25.3%
2023 - 22.9 %
2024 - 21.8%

If he can keep the strikeouts to around 17%, or even improve to 15%/16%, get the walk rate back up to near 6%, he can get his OPS closer to .750. Get his line drive % back up to around 25% and maybe he can push his OPS closer to .800. He'd be a really solid 5th or 6th hitter.

He's currently league average for SS in terns of OPS+, sitting right at 100.

I'm pretty hopeful for Jeremy this season.
He has to find the balance between continuing to improve K-BB ratio and doing damage when he swings. His rookie year he punished fastballs. I actually hope he goes back to the rookie mindset. Screw walking. Hunt the fastball. Do damage. So what if he doesn't draw walks if he slugs .440 from the 6/7 hole and still finds ways on base with the speed.
Mr. Awesome Time
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Not the first time it's been mentioned, but Jeremy's personal issues should be behind him as well.
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