***** Official Houston Astros 2024-2025 Offseason Thread *****

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SpaceCityAg05
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In reply to W • 7:21p, 12/15/24
AG
Indeed. And I like that we don't ignore defense, which is important. You don't want to field a team of hard-hitting butchers.

But the 3B topic is an interesting spotlight on this. The interest in Arenado leads one to believe thay they are not comfortable with Paredes playing 3B. And Paredes is certainly not Bregman (or Arenado) with the glove.

But his dWAR is neutral - he looks to be average in that department. Which means the Astros would rather have a subpar bat with a good glove at 3B than a good bat with an average glove.
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MaxPower
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In reply to SpaceCityAg05 • 8:13p, 12/15/24
Yeah I don't get it at all. The other thing we haven't discussed with Arenado is we inherit that no trade clause. That means when he is even hotter garbage in a year or two it will be that much harder to dump him. This is in addition to him and Paredes blocking your now #1 prospect in Cam Smith for several years.

I'd honestly rather just play Dubon there and spend the money elsewhere if they are convinced Paredes can't play 3B.
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MaxPower
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In reply to W • 8:16p, 12/15/24
W said:
regarding Jake...

the Astros seem to be one of the teams that puts a lot of emphasis on defense

whereas other teams want guys that can swing the bat...and they'll figure out how to catch the ball later
Yeah I've gone through the CF free agent options and any upgrade would be minimal and cost more than Jake. I think Bader is a better fit with similar range but with a good arm and pulls the ball more, which might play better at MMP but the difference is very small and likely $5+M more expensive.
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Mathguy64
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8:18p, 12/15/24
AG
Leave Paredes at 3B and find a RHH 1B with big splits to pair with Jon and spend money on Teoscar or Santander.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 8:32p, 12/15/24
AG
Mathguy64 said:
Leave Paredes at 3B and find a RHH 1B with big splits to pair with Jon and spend money on Teoscar or Santander.


Caratini can already do that job. Salazar has a lot of potential defensively and managing games. He adds a lefty bat to the mix too. Plus he's pre arb. Also Dezenzo exists and I have some faith in his bat.

I'd much prefer Santander over Teoscar. Younger and switch hits.

Paredes can move to 1B in 26 after Caratini is gone and Cam is ready to come up.
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The Porkchop Express
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8:34p, 12/15/24
AG
I'm scared of Chas falling into the Chris Burke zone where we keep giving him 50 chances because of that one time in the post-season. Any reports of what he's up to this off-season? You'd think he's be a cage rat all winter to try and recapture that 20-20 magic.

I feel like Jake isn't going to get any better than what he is, so if that's your 9-hitter/CF, that's cool, but there has got to be something else in that lineup. Once Bregman leaves, Singleton #5 and Pena #6 just sounds awful.

I feel like I'm starting to circle the Joey Gallo whirlpool and feel the mindset of why a team signs him. Because the potential of 25 HR and 75 RBI with a .195 averarge doesn't seem so bad.

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SpaceCityAg05
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 8:40p, 12/15/24
AG
That is where I am as well. Paredes at 3B and platoon a RHB with Singleton, which can be Caratini and/or DeZenzo. If you want to sign Canha for platoon depth at 1B/OF, that works too.

But keep the powder dry to sign Santander, and then use your remaining salary space to sign a Kepler or a cheaper LH OF so that you can slide Chas to CF and avoid a repeat of the outfield of horrors.
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EastCoastAgNc
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8:32a, 12/16/24
AG
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Farmer1906
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In reply to SpaceCityAg05 • 8:39a, 12/16/24
AG
I wouldn't hate bringing Gamel back. He did very well in his short stint last year and should be cheap.
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SpaceCityAg05
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 9:07a, 12/16/24
AG
Gamel did indeed have a good run for us, but I wonder how much of that was real/sustainable.

I liked (like) Heyward better since his tiebreaker is that he provides veteran leadership and intangibles on top of whatever he has left in the tank.
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Dr. Doctor
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In reply to The Porkchop Express • 9:18a, 12/16/24
AG
The Porkchop Express said:
redline248 said:
The Porkchop Express said:
tjack16 said:


Need to make a move
I hope you guys realize the Astros are going to start Joey Gallo in RF on Opening Day
I hate to admit that when I was looking at potential free agent RFs and saw his name I had a momentary lapse in judgement. I thought, "well maybe he could hit a few homers to RF." Then I quickly remembered he averages more strikeouts than batting average points...
But the silver lining is that I stick by my promise that if the Astros ever sign Joey Gallo, I buy a ticket for every regular on the board and go to the game in a donkey costume wearing a Gallo jersey.


Sign me up!
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Farmer1906
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In reply to SpaceCityAg05 • 9:34a, 12/16/24
AG
SpaceCityAg05 said:
Gamel did indeed have a good run for us, but I wonder how much of that was real/sustainable.

I liked (like) Heyward better since his tiebreaker is that he provides veteran leadership and intangibles on top of whatever he has left in the tank.


Both are small samples and neither set the world on fire, but both would likely do the job of league avg play in a platoon split for very little $. I lean Gamel for age and slightly better batted ball #s.

I wish the answer was Melton though. I just have such little faith in him. He i know's a top 100 prospect by some rankings, but over the last 2 seasons (High A to AAA) he's had OPS of .801 & .736. .770 in AA across 2 seasons and .718 in AAA. He'll be 24 and hasn't exactly mastered the minors yet. The outlook worsens if you dig into the batted ball #s in AAA.



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texasaggie2015
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 9:36a, 12/16/24
AG
Yup. I know the org is split on Melton. Personally I just don't really see it at all.
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MaxPower
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 9:59a, 12/16/24
I get we should be bulking the farm but I'd be willing to move Melton if he has top 100 prospect value to another club. The Cardinals need position player help in the minors so I wouldn't be surprised if he's part of the discussion.
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SpaceCityAg05
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10:23a, 12/16/24
AG
Melton should absolutely be used as trade bait while he has high value.

Cam Smith is the first elite position player prospect we have had in the mid to high minors (unless you count Yainer) since Tucker.
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MaxPower
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In reply to SpaceCityAg05 • 11:03a, 12/16/24
You are correct. Yanier was never in a top 100 list so he is a great development story.
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to Dr. Doctor • 11:09a, 12/16/24
AG
Dr. Doctor said:
The Porkchop Express said:
redline248 said:
The Porkchop Express said:
tjack16 said:


Need to make a move
I hope you guys realize the Astros are going to start Joey Gallo in RF on Opening Day
I hate to admit that when I was looking at potential free agent RFs and saw his name I had a momentary lapse in judgement. I thought, "well maybe he could hit a few homers to RF." Then I quickly remembered he averages more strikeouts than batting average points...
But the silver lining is that I stick by my promise that if the Astros ever sign Joey Gallo, I buy a ticket for every regular on the board and go to the game in a donkey costume wearing a Gallo jersey.


Sign me up!
I did my leg work a couple of years ago when he got moved to the Yankees just in case it ever happens.



[img]https://fanatics.frgimages.com/lf?set=key[name],value[KINGDONK]&set=key[number],value[13]&call=url[http://dmimages.ff.p10/chains/200500502.txt]&scale=size[900]&sink[/img]
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MaxPower
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11:25a, 12/16/24
I'd be interested in our plan C if we can't resign Bregman or work out a deal for Arenado. Makes me wonder if they start shopping Framber heavily if they can't get either of those bats.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to MaxPower • 11:27a, 12/16/24
AG
I wouldn't say Arenado is a plan B.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to MaxPower • 11:28a, 12/16/24
AG
MaxPower said:
I'd be interested in our plan C if we can't resign Bregman or work out a deal for Arenado. Makes me wonder if they start shopping Framber heavily if they can't get either of those bats.
Lots of talk about Polanco. I think we've been linked to Moncada too. Cheap options to put in the mix and hopefully we then focus on the best bat available.
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tjack16
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11:30a, 12/16/24
AG
Signing Profar would be my move plus trading for Arenado
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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 11:37a, 12/16/24
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
I wouldn't say Arenado is a plan B.
Man I hope he's not plan A
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Sher Thing
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11:39a, 12/16/24
AG
Framber for Casas?
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 11:39a, 12/16/24
AG
Definitely not.
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linkdude
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 11:46a, 12/16/24
AG
Is the plan A currently on the roster?
Personally, I don't have a problem with Parades getting a shot out of the gate and looked forward to Smith fighting for playing time either down the stretch or in 2026.
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Farmer1906
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11:48a, 12/16/24
AG
I am still fuzzy about our interest in Arenado. I don't see the huge value for an older guy, being paid real money, and showing a decline at a position we just addressed in Parades & Smith.

I would take a package of Arenado & Donovan and eat 100% of Arenado's money to secure Donovan. I would pay a pretty penny in prospects too. If that were to go down we could run out a lineup like this:

Vs RHP
1. Altuve 2B
2. Alvarez DH
3. Paredes 1B
4. Diaz C
5. Donovan LF
6. Arenado 3B
7. Gamel / Heyward / Kepler (insert chap LH OF) RF
8. Pena SS
9. Meyers CF
Bench: McCormick, Dubon, Caratini, Salazar(?), Dezenzo(?)

Vs LHP
1. Altuve 2B
2. Alvarez DH
3. Paredes 1B
4. Diaz C
5. Arenado 3B
6. Pena SS
7. McCormick LF
8. Meyers CF
9. Dubon RF
Bench: Donovan, Caratini, Cheap LHH OF pick up, Salazar(?), Dezenzo(?)

And before anyone freaks out about that OF lineup, here is their wRC+ vs RHP in the last 2 seasons: 131, 119, 108. That's pretty damn elite for the back end of a lineup with plus defense.

Also, if one gets moved, Dezenzo would have s a role in LF.
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tjack16
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11:51a, 12/16/24
AG
I guess I'm confused as to why so many are down on Arenado after he had one below average year per his standards. If you look at his last five seasons, he's been very good and a perennial All-Star with winning the gold glove pretty much every year. He's also 33 which means he likely has 2 strong years left at least

I would be very pleased with that move and I actually think he would play better here in Houston.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to linkdude • 11:51a, 12/16/24
AG
Christian Walker is still their number one target which hasn't changed since I mentioned him back around September. The tricky part is.. how long are they willing to wait?

Santander is also a possibility if they decide to shift to an OF bat.

If neither of those options happen or look like they will happen, Arenado is on the table which would move Paredes to first base.

They've checked in on a dozen or so guys so they can move fast once the dominoes start falling.

I remember saying Hader would be the number one target before the 2023 offseason. Can I go 2 for 2?
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 11:52a, 12/16/24
AG
This would provide a lot of roster flexibility so pinch hit options later in the game would be easier decisions for Joe.

Chas: All 3 OF spots
Meyers: All 3 OF spots
Paredes: Both Corners
Dezenzo: LF and 1B, emergency 3B
Dubon: Everywhere but pitcher and catcher
Donovan: Everywhere but pitcher, catcher, and CF
Caratini: C/1B
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tylhair
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 11:55a, 12/16/24
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
Definitely not.
Ok texasaggie2015, if that is your real name.

Chandler Rome has very publicly reported that the Astros are in pursuit of Nolan Arenado. I know some here don't like Chandler, but he wouldn't be publishing that and putting his name on it for nothing.

I want to believe you that the front office has a plan, Arenado isn't even plan C, if Meyers/McCormick are the opening day OF we would have struck out, etc.

Have your connections indicated if the front office is more interested in free agents or trades at this stage? Would you go so far as to predict who the astros front office will push to acquire next?


Edit. saw your reply above. Christian Walker and Santander are definitely interesting. Free agent route.
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Farmer1906
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11:58a, 12/16/24
AG
I am 100% fine if Meyers and/or McCormick are still a big part of the plan in 2025. I just want them used in more platoon toles and batting in the bottom few spots of the lineup. We need to make a bigger splash in the corner(s) to help recover the loss of Bregman & Tucker. Pardes is part of the way, but we need more.
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 11:58a, 12/16/24
AG
Farmer1906 said:

And before anyone freaks out about that OF lineup, here is their wRC+ vs RHP in the last 2 seasons: 131, 119, 108. That's pretty damn elite for the back end of a lineup with plus defense.

can we freak out if we don't have the faintest idea what those numbers mean?
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to tylhair • 12:01p, 12/16/24
AG
Not saying Chandler was wrong- we definitely have been involved with Arenado. Just doesn't mean that's their #1 plan right now. They have to lay the groundwork so they can move quickly once things start happening.

If I had to guess who the next move would be? That's tough. I'll call my shot and say the Yankees get Bregman and Walker signs here shortly after.
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Ag_07
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In reply to tjack16 • 12:01p, 12/16/24
AG
I was where you are back when he was first mentioned but then I took a closer look at his numbers.

This isn't just one outlier season of low production. His production has been in a steady decline for the past few years. HRs, RBIs, OPS all on a steady decline in the past 3-4 years.

I know awards are the best barometer for success but it's telling that he won a GG in every season since 2013 until 23 and 24.

There's a reason they wanna trade him.
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Beat40
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In reply to tjack16 • 12:08p, 12/16/24
tjack16 said:
I guess I'm confused as to why so many are down on Arenado after he had one below average year per his standards. If you look at his last five seasons, he's been very good and a perennial All-Star with winning the gold glove pretty much every year. He's also 33 which means he likely has 2 strong years left at least

I would be very pleased with that move and I actually think he would play better here in Houston.
He's clearly declined. In Colorado, he was a .900 OPS guy. Outside Colorado, he had one .891 season in 2022, but 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024 his OPS has been .738, .807, .774, and .719 respectively. It closely averages to a .150 decrease in OPS after leaving Colorado.

I'm not as down on him as others are if the Astros find a couple of other offensive options. As you said he's 33. He has visibly declined. His defense my still be there, but are you willing to take the chance his offense picks back up when 4 of the last 5 years it's has been more of the same of what the Astros currently have?

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