Watching the Abreu situation unfold in Houston is very much like the Odor situation here a while back. So many fans are like IT'S EASY - BENCH HIM or RELEASE HIM but they clearly don't understand the economics of baseball.

A guy getting paid that much HAS to be given every opportunity to perform. To bench him, or release him, means eating so much money that you cannot be competitive. To bench or release him is, in effect, surrender.

So you keep rolling him out there and hoping he gets it turned around. Financially, you have to.

Abreu is earning $19.5 MM this year and next, then UFA. So to release him, or bench him, would cost about $30ish MM right now.

Pitching matchup favors us today. We can win if the bats show up.

One aspect of the MLB and NBA that I hate. I'm all for guys getting paid and guaranteed money, but having absolutely zero outs in a contract like that freaking sucks. It's part of what makes the NFL more interesting and what not as well.

No one holds a gun to the owner's head ala Luca Brasi and tells the owner either his signature or his brains will be on that contract.

True, and the Abreu situation is their own damn fault because they were the ones to sign a 35 year old, but if you want to really compete you are going to have to sign some unfavorable contracts a lot of the time.

That's about as excited for a Rangers play as I've seen from Raymond.

Also true - part of remaining competitive is eating bad contracts. Whether Houston can financially eat $30 MM is a question for ownership.

But benching Abreu means giving up on 2024. You then need to start selling parts. Unfortunately for them, there ain't much to shop.

Bregman & Graveman are FAs in 2025. You'd get a haul for Bregman.

Pressly has a mutual option for 2025. Verlander has a $35 MM vesting option for 2025 (becomes player option at 140 IP).

I guess they could burn it down?

fc2112 said:

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But benching Abreu means giving up on 2024. You then need to start selling parts. Unfortunately for them, there ain't much to shop

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I don't know that I agree with that 100%. I would tend to think if they were to keep sending Abreu out there and he's showing no signs of improving, that's more or less waving the flag on the season, especially if there's someone else that can provide more production.

I get the needing to give him every opportunity possible to get your money's worth out of him. But if they're in the wildcard race with a few games to go and he's still not doing anything for them, I bet they give someone else a shot.

There is a term for players like Abreu... Sunk-Cost.

The money is committed and effectively spent whether the keep him or dump him.

I see what you're saying, but I think the comparison falls apart with Odor in that Odor was in his mid-20s. He loved HRs and felt there was a future for him even if he didn't adjust.

Abreu is 37'ish. He is who he is and while he can be productive, I don't think anyone has ideas he'll be great. IMO, the problem the Astros have with Abreu is that they don't have any other real options, right now, but to ride it out. On the Rivalry thread, that is part of the lack of depth they have.

It is likely we and they are talking to the NYM about Pete Alonso ($20.5M in '24, then FA). The Salary pickup is likely less than $10M and the Mets owner doesn't care about money. He'd likely eat the money like he is doing with JV and Max Scherzer. But, the Astros don't have much to trade for him.

They blew their wad on Hader and I've mentioned that many times. They are up against the Luxury Tax, something Crane hasn't liked to breach. AND... they lost their 2nd Rd draft pick for '24. If they have to give up talent for Alonso, what can they give up?! They have among the word Farms in all MLB... like 27th-30th worst.

They have no internal replacement.

fc2112 said:

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Watching the Abreu situation unfold in Houston is very much like the Odor situation here a while back. So many fans are like IT'S EASY - BENCH HIM or RELEASE HIM but they clearly don't understand the economics of baseball.

A guy getting paid that much HAS to be given every opportunity to perform. To bench him, or release him, means eating so much money that you cannot be competitive. To bench or release him is, in effect, surrender.

So you keep rolling him out there and hoping he gets it turned around. Financially, you have to.

Abreu is earning $19.5 MM this year and next, then UFA. So to release him, or bench him, would cost about $30ish MM right now.

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.124 BA

Houston... we have a problem

A little deeper. I looked at this last week, because I was curious.

I think they are on for about $135M for '25

Pressly becomes guaranteed with 22 more GP to the tune of $14M
JV needs to reach 140IP (he is at 57) to be a player option at $35M, of which NYM would likely pay $17.5M

All-in, if my numbers were correct, they are sitting at about $205 committed for 2025 with Pressly and JV, but without Bregman. CBT is projected to be $241M.

So, they'll have about $36M to sign Bregman and add any other pieces... like to replace Abreu. Or add RP. Or SP.

RandyLahey1013 said:

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I see a little bit of Josh Hamilton in Garcia…..

I think the money and the attention he's getting has absolutely altered his approach. He's playing like Josh Hamilton at the end of his days. It's almost like he doesn't care. He's not at the Josh Hamilton Baltimore series level yet, but he's close imo.

Really cool shoes though.

Need a series win in a big way today. Need that clutch hit like yesterday, we can hit this guy.

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What did Hamilton do in that Baltimore series again?

I was being facetious.

Awful

I'm sure you can find clips online.

He couldn't wait to go up there and strike out. Gave zero F's.
Quit on his team.

Thoughts on giving up Taveras and Duran for Bregman? Yea I can't stand the guy (HOU & LSU) but he would be good to have for when Jung goes on the DL, again.

_lefraud_ said:

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Thoughts on giving up Taveras and Duran for Bregman? Yea I can't stand the guy (HOU & LSU) but he would be good to have for when Jung goes on the DL, again.

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My thoughts are hell no. We have a third baseman.

I could see giving up Taveras and Duran in a trade though and betting on Carter being as good or better than Taveras in CF.

Bregman isn't a good ball player this year. I'm not sure the Astros could get much for him unless he gets red hot soon. Duran/smith would be a much better option at 3rd and in the lineup. Just my thoughts.

Duran and Bregman's WAR are identical in 2024 btw

He is making $30M this year, as well.

Zero trade value.

He indicated that he'd be open to in-season contract talks. You have to believe his status with the team has weighed on him. They have a AA prospect that was supposed to take over in 2025, but has been shelved most of this season, so far.

Bregman hasn't been good since before Covid... during the Astros sign-stealing cheating.

Isn't he also douchy?!

Quote:

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Isn't he also douchy?!

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If he is on your team, you probably love him as he has been a solid player. But if he's not on your team... maybe so. Overall I'd give him a pass and say he is "competitive" or whatever.


As far as Bregman being a free agent. His slump couldn't have come at a worse time for him. Is it because the contract is "on his mind"? Who knows. But add in his age and teams will be hesitant to pull the trigger on the multi-year deal for big bucks that I am sure he is seeking. He might have to settle for a one-year prove it type contract.

Water Boy said:

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Bregman has benefited from the juiced ball year and playing in Mickey Mouse park every year. I think he ends up signing one of those prove it deals like Monty and snell. I just don't see him commanding 150 million plus or a team giving up great talent to trade for him.

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lol.... I just typed up pretty much the same response.

Agreed about the juiced ball year, but his H/A splits are almost identical in terms of GP, Avg, HRs, etc. His OPS is .852 H/.849 A.

Not saying we'll move to get one, but here is a nice comparison of soon to be FAs:

Bregmn (30): 65G, .240, 9 HR, 102 OPS+; $30.5M
Alonso (29): 66G, .235, 14 HR, 126 OPS+; $20.5M

Pete Alonso also strikes me as a guy who would probably play better for a different team and a different park. The Mets are a dumpster fire.

Agreed on Alonso. I could very easily see him going on an absolute tear if he gets traded to a contending team. Playing for a badly managed organization has to weigh on you mentally.

While true, we don't slug the ball for ****, and Alonso has a career .522 SLG and .861 OPS. He would help this team ton, but as we currently stand no we aren't going to do a deal like this. No need to trade assets for a rental when you could very easily miss the playoffs.