We're in a very odd situation in that we have a roster that won a World Series in 2023 with a +165 run differential, and then followed up with a similar roster that will likely have a negative run differential in 2024.

Very difficult to know what pieces to shed and what pieces you need to add when the range of production is that great. Combine that with the TV deal, and I imagine we're going to see a nearly identical roster get trotted out there next season with the same logic -- "see what we've got come late July and make a move if we're a contender".

There's just no obvious upgrades or cast asides at this point without breaking the bank because you don't know if this year was the complete anomaly or last. Adolis Garcia probably isn't a 4 WAR guy. But he's probably not a 1 WAR guy either.

Water Boy said:

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Is the main gripe with Lowe his lack of power? He seems to always be included in hypothetical trade talks yet he's 3rd on the team in OPS and has a near identical average as Jung. He's not a superstar but statistically he's been one of the better offensive players this year. Also who can we afford that has better numbers?

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Yeah, it's his lack of SLG almost exclusively. 1B is a position for mashers. Guys who maybe only hit .225-.250, but could also hit you 30+ homers in a full season. Lowe isn't that guy. We need another real threat to leave the yard, because right now it's only Seager, sometimes Jung. Adolis is that guy when he's right, but he ain't right.

Can someone that knows where to look up salary projections let me know how close I am to that Lowe guess? Now it's on my mind and I have no clue where to look.

I just found an article from Newberg where he mentions $11-12MM for Lowe in 2025. That's probably where I got that.

Sportrac has Lowe currently earning $7.5, I would tend to agree that he's probably going to want around $10.

Trade for Shea Langeliers and move him to first? He's just the guy everyone here wants at first. Batting .221 with 22 home runs. His SLG is .439 compared to Lowe's .347. I don't think we would have to give up much to get him and he'll be cheap in arbitration years. And another plus is obtaining him would give us a few extra wins since he won't be in Oakland anymore single handily beating us.

rbtexan said:

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Here's my problem with OPS (and analytics in general). They can tell you what a player did, but they can't tell you when a player did it. Meaning, getting a bunch of hits during a lopsided loss doesn't have the same value if you go 0-4 in the wins or close games. I think you have to apply the eye test more than just looking at the stat sheet for some players.

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Analytics can tell you "when a player did it" -- the clutch stat exists.

Our eyes lie to us more than we like to believe.

But for the record, Lowe would skew towards "not so clutch" based on those analytics.

So yeah, I'm attempting the absurd by recommending a swing change for a guy with a Silver Slugger, but if Lowe is going to stand upright with high hands and a slightly open stance, he needs to keep two hands on the bat through the swing and not one-hand release it. He doesn't have the strength to do that like Josh Hamilton. He needs to stand closer to the plate.

Here are a couple of examples he can follow:

Travis Hafner


Raul Ibanez

Proposition Joe said:

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rbtexan said:

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Here's my problem with OPS (and analytics in general). They can tell you what a player did, but they can't tell you when a player did it. Meaning, getting a bunch of hits during a lopsided loss doesn't have the same value if you go 0-4 in the wins or close games. I think you have to apply the eye test more than just looking at the stat sheet for some players.

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Analytics can tell you "when a player did it" -- the clutch stat exists.

Our eyes lie to us more than we like to believe.

But for the record, Lowe would skew towards "not so clutch" based on those analytics.

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My post was poorly worded (was on my phone). I was directing that primarily at OPS, which does not in fact consider clutch...it's just on base + slug. Again, going 3-4 with a grand slam in an 11-4 loss doesn't mean a hell of a lot if you pop up, strike out, or GIDP with runners on in a tight ballgame.

OPS is not a worthless stat at all, I'm not suggesting that - but there's a danger in looking at a player's OPS and saying "wow, his OPS is .800, he's a stud". Joey Gallo and Rougned Odor are great examples of players with a solid to high OPS numbers - I don't think anyone on here would be excited to see either one of them back in a Rangers uniform.

Yeah, I'm just saying analytics is more than "just OPS". If there's some angle you are looking for in a player, there's likely a statistic for it that cuts through the bull**** far better than "the eye test".

But you have to also be careful not to confuse a clutch player with a productive player. Your clutch player might get you the big hit with a guy on 2nd base late in the game to win 6-5, but your productive player might have hit a 3-run homerun in the 2nd inning that kept that late hit from only making it 3-5.

Semien was our least clutch this year (-1.5), Seager was our most clutch this year (+1.8).

Interestingly enough, Semien was also -1.5 last year... But he also put up a 7.4 WAR. So he was the best example of a guy that put up great numbers but you didn't necessarily want up in big spots.

Different discussion, but what objective metric would Langford have to meet to finish this year to say that he had a reasonably successful rookie season? Would a .700 OPS do it for you? OPS+ is 95 right now, which is a slightly below average player.

I think I'm with you on this one.

(22): 107G, .243, 8 HR, 12 SB, 38 BB, 90SO
4 Triples
.312 OBP
.380 SLG
OPS+: 95

146 Total Bases.

At 22, that's a pretty solid foundation and 1st season in MLB.

For me with him...
1) He needs to protect the plate better late in the count. Me also
2) I don't want him expanding the zone based on the Ump.

We might see a Sophomore slump, but he strikes me as the type that could go: .285, 25HRs, 20 SBs next season.

Most of his success came batting 6th. I think that is likely the best balanced place for him.

So your objective metric is "played in 100+ major league games"? There isn't a problem with that. The fact that he was in college last year can be factored in. I think being a league average hitter in Year 1 at this age is very solid.

Absolutely yes. He was playing in college less than a year from breaking into the big leagues where he has played well enough to where he was never sent back down. Most players don't do that.

Langford is going to be a very good MLB player. He isn't even on the radar of players I'm concerned about going forward.

Corey Seager not starting on his bobblehead night?

Lol Jon Gray

Need to start a new chant at the games...."Jon Gray, DFA, Jon Gray, DFA..."

Lowe must read TexAgs

B-u-m

Speaking of Bums...

Watching BananaBall and the RF for the Party Animals is none-other-than... Jake Skole.

I'm like... I know that name.

Dunning. Woof

Hello Loss Column!
72 losses to match last season with 27 games remaining.

bmac_aggie18 said:

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27-3 and we're in the playoffs

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24-3 or 27-0?

Super Aggie 64 said:

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bmac_aggie18 said:

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27-3 and we're in the playoffs

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24-3 or 27-0?

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Either would be fine, obviously I can't do math

Well fortunately (or unfortunately), in another week the math won't be needed anymore.

bmac_aggie18 said:

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27-3 and we're in the playoffs

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Cue Jim Mora.

Wasn't really expecting to see Grissman get claimed, but I guess he has picked it up at the plate lately (it seems anyway)

KC claimed Robbie Grossman

— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) August 31, 2024

Pretty sure he was gone regardless. Janko they might keep.

Hello Win Column!

24-2 gets us to the playoffs just keep doing it

Anybody else going to watch World Series highlights to numb the pain of another disappointing season for the Aggies?

Proposition Joe said:

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We're in a very odd situation in that we have a roster that won a World Series in 2023 with a +165 run differential, and then followed up with a similar roster that will likely have a negative run differential in 2024.

Very difficult to know what pieces to shed and what pieces you need to add when the range of production is that great. Combine that with the TV deal, and I imagine we're going to see a nearly identical roster get trotted out there next season with the same logic -- "see what we've got come late July and make a move if we're a contender".

There's just no obvious upgrades or cast asides at this point without breaking the bank because you don't know if this year was the complete anomaly or last. Adolis Garcia probably isn't a 4 WAR guy. But he's probably not a 1 WAR guy either.

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I'd like to see our average in pitches per plate appearance this season vs last. I think this year's team has been far less able to grind counts, take walks, and run up pitch counts. We had a game against Boston several weeks ago that we won, but I think we saw 134 pitches, and they saw 199, or something similar. The offensive approach was different. Not sure why. I'm crossing my fingers that a lineup with Carter, Semien, Seager, Langford, Jung at the top can stay healthy and wreak havoc. I'd try to create a poor man's top 4 again at the bottom of the order with Smith, Garcia, Lowe, and Heim. Whatever the case, the plate discipline just hasn't looked good.

And keep Jung at 3rd. He's a natural.