***** 2024 Houston Astros Season Thread ***** [Staff Warning]

4,114,117 Views | 67712 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by jkag89
Mathguy64
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bearkatag15 said:

I'm no longer worried about Seattle, my sights are set on Cleveland and getting to the 2 seed. That is still within reach


It got harder. Cleveland beat KC today. We need KC to take the next two while we beat Cincy. Plain and simple we have to beat the bad teams every time. There is very little margin for error.
BadAggie
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We got a six man rotation with some parts having been elite for the last month but you also have JV looking iffy and Blanco not as crisp

Really need that Wild Card bye, imo

JB!98
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Prosperdick said:

Hornbeck said:

Wabs said:

Would be sweet if the Rangers beat the Mariners later this month to clinch the division for us.

The Stros vs Rangerettes thread would be epic, if this were to be the case.

Except none of those losers show up anymore and avoid it like the plague.
So if they are not around anymore, can we start doing this again in earnest.

tjack16
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Blanco has been fine. 3 of his last 5 starts have been really good

tjack16
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Framber, Brown, Arighetti and Kikuchi is as solid a 4 personal playoff rotation as you'll find. Add in Blanco as a long relief option and we will be really good and favored in any AL series
BadAggie
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.
Prosperdick
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tjack16 said:

Prosperdick said:

Hornbeck said:

Wabs said:

Would be sweet if the Rangers beat the Mariners later this month to clinch the division for us.

The Stros vs Rangerettes thread would be epic, if this were to be the case.

Except none of those losers show up anymore and avoid it like the plague.


Which we should be used to since they were gone from 2017-2022

Their title will be one of those in 10-15 years where baseball trivia people are like "crap who won it that year… give me a hint…"

10-15 years??? I guarantee there are plenty of sports fans nationally that couldn't tell you who won the WS last year. It was a snooze fest with two teams that have zero cache, it's already forgotten.
BadAggie
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75-63
5.0 games back of top AL seed (Yankees).
4.0 games back of Wild Card bye (Tribe).
6.0 games lead in AL West (Seamen).
4.5 games back of 1st Wild Card spot (Orioles).
0.5 games back of 2nd Wild Card spot (Twins).
0.5 games in front of 3rd Wild Card spot (Royals).



BadAggie
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The magic number to eliminate Arlington from postseason contention is 14.

tjack16
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Big chance this week to gain ground on Cleveland. They have six coming up with the Royals and the Dodgers. Both series are on the road for them.
Booma94
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The radio broadcast talked about the mound at GAB being flatter and how a lot of pitchers hate pitching there because it feels like they have to pitch up to get the ball to the plate. I know JV has not returned to form we're used to since returning, but I wonder if the mound had anything to do with his early struggles to find the strike zone.
jetch17
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JB!98 said:

Prosperdick said:

Hornbeck said:

Wabs said:

Would be sweet if the Rangers beat the Mariners later this month to clinch the division for us.

The Stros vs Rangerettes thread would be epic, if this were to be the case.

Except none of those losers show up anymore and avoid it like the plague.
So if they are not around anymore, can we start doing this again in earnest.




houag78
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Does anyone. Know why there's a day off today? Odd timing since the series started yesterday.
EastCoastAgNc
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houag78 said:

Does anyone. Know why there's a day off today? Odd timing since the series started yesterday.
AgSportsFan89
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houag78 said:

Does anyone. Know why there's a day off today? Odd timing since the series started yesterday.


Because the Reds wanted to play a game on labor day. Better attendance numbers than today would be
EastCoastAgNc
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Aggie Therapist
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Let's go Astros. Finish September strong!
JDUB08AG
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Or he's just old...
West Roxbury
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Holy smokes. Who is the woman in the red dress?
All I do is Nguyen
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West Roxbury said:

Holy smokes. Who is the woman in the red dress?
Natali Tihomirova.


You're welcome
Ag_07
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JV is who he is nowadays.

I expect him to carry a 3-4 ERA with a few scattered vintage JV starts and some stinkers mixed in between mostly decent outings and quality starts.

He's not gonna mow down hitters like he used to but he'll go out and grind out innings and be a dependable starter.
Project Gemini
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There are only 65 qualified pitchers in the league with a <4 ERA.
All I do is Nguyen
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Is Whitley one of Lunhow's prospects?

07ag
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All I do is Nguyen said:

Is Whitley one of Lunhow's prospects?




Yes, been in the astros organization since before first world series title
https://ts.la/eric59704
W
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JV has a 4.52 season ERA

and for the advanced metrics folks...he has a 4.73 FIP

there's nothing good about either one of those numbers
n_touch
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07ag said:

All I do is Nguyen said:

Is Whitley one of Lunhow's prospects?




Yes, been in the astros organization since before first world series title
Seems like he has been in the organization since the first world series appearance.
Ag_07
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That's a bit high but I think at this point in his career that's about what we should expect from him.

Anywhere between 3.5-4.5 ERA is probably about right.
Farmer1906
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Quote:

The Astros continue to pull away in the AL West standings after winning five in a row last week, including a four-game sweep of the Royals at home. Despite having had so much trouble with their pitching staff for a large portion of the season, their rotation has really stabilized over the last month or so. Yusei Kikuchi has been excellent, Hunter Brown has sorted out his issues, Justin Verlander is healthy again, and Spencer Arrighetti looks like he's taken a big step forward. We should have never doubted Houston.
Fangraphs Power Rankings.
The Porkchop Express
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Yainer now on pace for 19 HR, 92 RBi season. while also batting .300

Over the course of the summer months, he hit .331 with 13 home runs and 51 RBI.

He's also the anti-Yordan, hitting .328 at MMP with a .858 OPS (.778 overall).

Yordan on pace for 35 HR but only 86 RBI. Bizarre.

His road OPS is up to 1.153 with a .708 slugging percentage and a .358 average. At home, it's .268 average, .431 slug, .784 OPS.

Yordan, I'm going to assume is AL Player of the Month for August. He hit .382 with a 1.178 OPS and 8 home runs. He had 9 home runs through May 31st, and has hit 21 since. In his last 7 games, he's hitting .444 with a 1.537 OPS.

Jake from rake Farm has now set career highs in every single offensive category, but seems destined to hit .226 or .227 for the rest of his life - .227 in 2022 and 2023, .226 this year. He's on pace to hit 15 HR and drive in 69 runs. I think any of us would have jumped at that at any point in the off season.

Altuve is on pace for 94 R, 189 hits, 21 HR, 67 RBi, and 24 steals. His last 20-20 season was 2017 (24/32) and his only one other than that was 2016 (24/30). He only hit .255 in August.

JP is on pace for 16 HR, 76 RBi, 82 runs scored, 164 hits, and 18 steals. All of those except HR would be career highs. He's had a tremendous bounce-back from his sophomore slump. He's already ahead of last year's totals in HR and RBI and SB. He's also on pace for a career low in strikeouts. His slugging is up .22 points from last year and his OPS is on par with his rookie year.

Fat-Ass Framber is having the best WHIP season of his career so far at 1.11. He finished at 1.13 in 2023 and at 1.12 in the abbreviated 2020. His 3.11 ERA is the second lowest of his career, trailing only 2022's 2.82.



All I do is Nguyen
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These are a fantastic watch if you have the time


Farmer1906
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Skubal is winning the Cy this year. No doubt about it. Who's #2? #3?

Top 10 in ERA + other key stats


Framber has a powerful argument. Gilbert & Ragans do too.
W
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the Yainer vs. Yordan HR/RBI ratios (vs. spot in the batting order) will require some offseason discussion

-----

Yordan has 30 HR and 73 RBI in 482 at-bats

Yainer has 16 HR and 78 RBI in 475 at-bats

Yordan has 100 RISP at-bats

Yainer has 138 RISP at-bats

so Yordan is getting more chances to hit home runs...but fewer opportunities to drive in runs
Farmer1906
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A few interesting things I noticed reviewing these pitcher stats.
  • Framber is in the top 20 for pitcher WAR, but so is Kikuchi at 17. He's ahead of Blanco, Flaherty, Nola, Imanaga, and other big names.
  • Hunter Brown is in the top 10 in xERA. He's one of the few top arms where his expected #s are better than actual (Cease, Eflin, Ober, Lopez, Pfaadt)
  • Why is Brown's xERA so low? - He's #2 in EV, #1 in Barrel% (Framber #2), & #3 in HH%.
  • Blanco excels in RE24 (6th overall). That and his low BABIP are likely why he's gotten such great results without having the WAR or expected stats to go with it.
Ciboag96
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Farmer1906
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Here is a fun one to chew on. The difference in RBI for the Astros 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, & 8 hole hitters is 5. A range of 62 to 67 for each spot.
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