The Porkchop Express said:

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rosco511 said:

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Why does Espada use Hader in the 9th in tie games on the road? I get this strategy at home because that could be the other team's last inning to hit but makes no sense to me on the road because the other team will have always have at least one more inning to hit. What am I missing about this strategy from his perspective?

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He's operating under the false pretense that we might score a run in the 10th inning and then Hader closes it out. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to ever be the case.

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This scenario happened on 8/14 against the Rays. Hader came in 9th with game tied, went to the 10th, we scored T10 and Hader pitch B10 and got the win.

dcaggie04 said:

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The Porkchop Express said:

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rosco511 said:

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Why does Espada use Hader in the 9th in tie games on the road? I get this strategy at home because that could be the other team's last inning to hit but makes no sense to me on the road because the other team will have always have at least one more inning to hit. What am I missing about this strategy from his perspective?

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He's operating under the false pretense that we might score a run in the 10th inning and then Hader closes it out. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to ever be the case.

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This scenario happened on 8/14 against the Rays. Hader came in 9th with game tied, went to the 10th, we scored T10 and Hader pitch B10 and got the win.

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I'm not sure how much you know about me, but 99% of my posts are fairly sarcastic if they don't have stats in them.

At the place his career peaked, Chas McCormick confronts a crossroads - https://t.co/K6vDFcugG9

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) August 27, 2024

2015 - what's your guy say about how the organization feels Tucker's rehab is going?

I'm definitely reading between the lines, so I may be reading stuff that isn't there, but based on a couple of comments Dana has made lately that have been posted here, I'm getting the feeling the organization feels Tucker isn't pushing his rehab as hard as they'd like.

Feels like they certainly understand the nature of the injury, but would like him to push a little bit more.

EastCoastAgNc said:

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In his 9th @MLB season, Alex Bregman is more essential than ever to the @Astros lineup.

When he starts and scores a run, Houston is 42-11.

When he starts and doesn't score, the team is 23-46. @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 27, 2024

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This seems like a very misleading stat.

Astros have scored 597 runs this year of which Bregman has scored 67. That means Bregman has scored 67 runs in 53 games or 1.3 runs per game, when he scores. When he starts and doesn't score that's one spot in the order with zero runs which will artificially lower the expected output.

If you completely take Bregman's scoring away the team drops from 4.6 runs per game down to 4.0. Thus, all else held equal, the difference between him scoring a run and not gives a run differential of 5.3 vs 4.0 which is massive. How big? Prorated for the year the higher average would put the Astros at 695, no team has scored that many runs so far this year. If you take the lower number you get 530. Only 6 teams have scored fewer runs than that. So treating Bregman scoring a run as a different team is the difference between the 25th best offense in the league and the best offense in the league by far.

I'd be interested to see the same stat on other players. Altuve and Yordan have more runs than Bregman and Pena is tied. I would guess Altuve and Yordan have a bigger impact while Pena is roughly the same.

Beat40 said:

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2015 - what's your guy say about how the organization feels Tucker's rehab is going?

I'm definitely reading between the lines, so I may be reading stuff that isn't there, but based on a couple of comments Dana has made lately that have been posted here, I'm getting the feeling the organization feels Tucker isn't pushing his rehab as hard as they'd like.

Feels like they certainly understand the nature of the injury, but would like him to push a little bit more.

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if this is the case, then that says a lot about what kind of teammate he is....

So now Tucker is a bad teammate?

Cmon fellas...

AggieDub04 said:

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EastCoastAgNc said:

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In his 9th @MLB season, Alex Bregman is more essential than ever to the @Astros lineup.

When he starts and scores a run, Houston is 42-11.

When he starts and doesn't score, the team is 23-46. @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 27, 2024

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This seems like a very misleading stat.

Astros have scored 597 runs this year of which Bregman has scored 67. That means Bregman has scored 67 runs in 53 games or 1.3 runs per game, when he scores. When he starts and doesn't score that's one spot in the order with zero runs which will artificially lower the expected output.

If you completely take Bregman's scoring away the team drops from 4.6 runs per game down to 4.0. Thus, all else held equal, the difference between him scoring a run and not gives a run differential of 5.3 vs 4.0 which is massive. How big? Prorated for the year the higher average would put the Astros at 695, no team has scored that many runs so far this year. If you take the lower number you get 530. Only 6 teams have scored fewer runs than that. So treating Bregman scoring a run as a different team is the difference between the 25th best offense in the league and the best offense in the league by far.

I'd be interested to see the same stat on other players. Altuve and Yordan have more runs than Bregman and Pena is tied. I would guess Altuve and Yordan have a bigger impact while Pena is roughly the same.

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You're on the right path. There are better ways to judge a player's impact than pure W/L record when they play vs don't.

WPA (Win Probability Added)
-0.67 (103 overall, 7th on the Astros - min 250 PA)

RE24 (Run Expectancy)
-0.07 (78th overall, 6th on Astros - min 250 PA)

fWAR (Wins Above Replacement)
3.4 (30th overall,2nd on Astros - min 250 PA)

The plus defense at 3rd helps him in WAR. The other 2 stats are purely offensive.

Ag_07 said:

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So now Tucker is a bad teammate?

Cmon fellas...

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Protecting your health with the knowledge that the completely healthy version of yourself is going to be worth $200+ million in a couple of years doesn't make you a bad teammate, but it would make more sense on why we're getting so few updates about his status. If he wants to take it really slowly to heal completely on a doctor's advice, the Astros don't want to publicly call him on that because that's a slam dunk that he won't resign.

All speculation of course, I've read shin contusions can take several months to heal if they are severe. It doesn't sound like a serious injury to the average person - myself included - but it also seems like there's the possibility of extending the recovery time if you try to use the muscle too much while you're in rehab.

Ag_07 said:

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So now Tucker is a bad teammate?

Cmon fellas...

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I didn't say he was a bad teammate. What I am hearing is that his rehab timelines are extended by his agent that run against what Astros team doctors are saying.

AustinCountyAg said:

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Tuck knows next year is the year that matters to him in that it sets him up to get PAID. He in fact may be lollygagging in terms of not wanting to push himself for a comeback.

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Totally - I completely understand Tucker's side on that too. Not trying to disparage Tuck or anything. Really just trying to gauge if there is a rift and how large it is.

gambochaman said:

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Beat40 said:

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2015 - what's your guy say about how the organization feels Tucker's rehab is going?

I'm definitely reading between the lines, so I may be reading stuff that isn't there, but based on a couple of comments Dana has made lately that have been posted here, I'm getting the feeling the organization feels Tucker isn't pushing his rehab as hard as they'd like.

Feels like they certainly understand the nature of the injury, but would like him to push a little bit more.

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if this is the case, then that says a lot about what kind of teammate he is....

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I don't think it says anything about what kind of teammate he is, and that wasn't my point. I'm just trying to gauge if there is a rift and how big it is.

What I've come to learn about players is they do care about winning, but they also care about improving the market for themselves and future players. If Tucker is in fact "lollygagging" his rehab, which I personally don't believe he is, I bet a lot of the players on the Astros take little offense to it and most likely with agree it.

Should we be interested in Drew Smyly?

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The Cubs have placed veteran reliever Drew Smyly on waivers, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link). Smyly has not been designated for assignment and can continue to play for Chicago pending resolution of the waiver process. The placement is irrevocable, however, so Smyly would land with another team in the next two days if anyone places a claim.

In situations like this, the team is hoping that the player will be claimed to offload the salary. That'd be a big ask in this case. Smyly is playing on a $10.5MM salary. There's around $1.9MM remaining. The deal also includes a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for next season. A claiming team would need to assume the entirety of that sum. It amounts to nearly $4.5MM for one month plus potential playoff work of Smyly's services.

The 35-year-old southpaw has turned in solid results in his first full season as a reliever. Smyly carries a 2.84 ERA over 50 2/3 frames. His 20.4% strikeout rate and 10.8% swinging strike percentage are pedestrian, but he has kept left-handed hitters to a .226/.293/.310 slash in 92 plate appearances.

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4.5 M for 1 month of work plus the postseason feels very pricey (assuming buyout for 2025) so I would guess no one will bite. Smyly the reliever probably isn't worth 10.5 M even if he agrees to the mutual option, he'd have to be a starter to be worth it.

Tucker read a copy of the "Hader rules"

concerning usage prior to free agency

That's insane.

I'm going to put a theory out there: If I recall, it was "sources" saying they were in conflict, correct? My theory is Chas was the source. Seemed most of the guys loved Dusty. Chas leaks the conflict. Chas loses trust of the locker room. Locker room becomes a tough environment for Chas and all of it is affecting him.

Or it could just be pitchers are busting him inside and he can't turn on it.

Either way, what a wild coincidence.

that was also about the same time Brantley returned

and cost Chas a few starts / at-bats

Sure - but I think they were hedging their bets with Jake. I think they hoped they could essentially platoon Jake and Chas. Tucker's injury messed up that plan.

I really believe that Chas's days as an Astro are numbered. May not even be on the playoff roster if they hold on and make it.

Chas to me seems like he might have gotten complacent or too confident in the offseason. We had heard he didn't work as hard in the weight room or cages so maybe it's caught up to him