***** 2024 Houston Astros Season Thread ***** [Staff Warning]

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Mathguy64
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Farmer1906 said:

Don't look now but Breggy is up to 3.2 WAR (5th in baseball for 3B) and 117 wRC+ (9th). Since June 1st he's 3rd in WAR and 2nd in wRC+.


Scott Boras thanks you for your interest in Mr Bregman.

Bidding will start at $30MM/year, 7 years minimum. Do we have an opening?
Marvin
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Farmer1906 said:

Don't look now but Breggy is up to 3.2 WAR (5th in baseball for 3B) and 117 wRC+ (9th). Since June 1st he's 3rd in WAR and 2nd in wRC+.


May be a question for Mathguy, but does a consistent WAR hold more value than a skewed distribution? Is a 4.0 of Bregman, weighted heavily in August, as valuable as a consistent monthly contribution?

I guess that depends on the rest of the team and who is hot when. I also get that players get hot and cold. But, is a consistent Tony Gwynn (thinking of a steady player) better for team performance over a hellaciously streaky George Springer- their sums being equal?
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
Farmer1906
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A consistent WAR will get you more consistent results and one that fluctuates will be streaky results. As long as its good over the long run, then I don't think it matters.

W
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the key for Bregman and Boras....

is finding a team that's going to ignore his 236 plate appearances in April & May that resulted in a .652 OPS

his free agency will be a classic case of confirmation bias
Booma94
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Mathguy64 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Don't look now but Breggy is up to 3.2 WAR (5th in baseball for 3B) and 117 wRC+ (9th). Since June 1st he's 3rd in WAR and 2nd in wRC+.


Scott Boras thanks you for your interest in Mr Bregman.

Bidding will start at $30MM/year, 7 years minimum. Do we have an opening?
What would it be if he hadn't sucked the biggest suck that ever sucked a suck from March - June?
Ag_07
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I think it depends on the team around him.

Say for instance a young team looking to build to take that next step (DET, PIT, KC) probably wouldn't want his blah months.

But a team with some star power looking to fill a position of need (NYY, LAD) has the production around him to hide him for the first couple months.
W
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and the reason Dana is still talking up Chas...

Jake's summer time OPS:

June -----> .642
July ------> .541
August --> .495

those numbers are Maldy and Abreu-esque
W
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it's fair to wonder how much of Bregman's August hot streak...

is due to Yordan also being on a hot streak behind him in the order

Yordan has a 1.370 OPS for August
Farmer1906
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R-Dog said:

Almost 40% strikeout rate in the last 11 games? That's absurdly bad.

They ought to make Meyers get to the ballpark at like 8 AM every day and just stand in the batters box without a bat while they throw him about 1000 sliders. He's got to learn to recognize that pitch...most of the ones he is swinging at, he couldn't hit with a boat paddle

He's literally Pedro Cerrano. Straight ball, I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid.


I think an offseason move of adding a 2nd center fielder that is left-handed will go a long way.

Jake vs LHP
2024: 121 wRC+, .774 OPS
Career: 114 wRC+, .765 OPS

Defense
2024: +10 FRV, +12 OAA
Last 3 Seasons: +22 FRV, +29 OAA

And I think I have identified a strong candidate that should be available via trade.

Cedric Mullins. He has been largely avg to below avg the last few seasons at the plate. He plays a strong CF. He will start costing BAL more money (year 2 and 3 of arb). They have a boatload of options to bring up to fill his spot.

Cedric vs RHP
2024: 108 wRC+, .738 OPS
Career: 117 wRC+, .785 OPS

Defense
2024: +3 FRV, +3 OAA
Last 3 Seasons: +16 FRV, +18 OAA

You do a full-time platoon between the two you have a ~115 wRC+ hitter with elite defense in CF. It also adds a key bench bat and 9th inning defense replacement. Mullins won't break the bank in prospect cost and won't kill the payroll.
tjack16
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Given how he hits at Fenway… if Bregman signs there he may be a hall of famer by the end of his career
BTKAG97
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W said:

the key for Bregman and Boras....

is finding a team that's going to ignore his 236 plate appearances in April & May that resulted in a .652 OPS

his free agency will be a classic case of confirmation bias
Recency Bias
agproducer
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I miss George.

redline248
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txags92 said:

Those 2 really are in Abreu territory with those OPS #s. Hard to believe we don't have anybody in the minors worth giving a shot that might do better than that.
We've already tried Cabbage and Leon, and in limited plate appearances they haven't looked ready. Maybe one of the guys recently promoted to Sugar Land will show something worthy of a shot?
Prosperdick
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Mathguy64 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Don't look now but Breggy is up to 3.2 WAR (5th in baseball for 3B) and 117 wRC+ (9th). Since June 1st he's 3rd in WAR and 2nd in wRC+.


Scott Boras thanks you for your interest in Mr Bregman.

Bidding will start at $30MM/year, 7 years minimum. Do we have an opening?
Crane: "Boras, I'll do that if you pay the first two months of his salary each year, deal?"
txags92
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Mathguy64 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Don't look now but Breggy is up to 3.2 WAR (5th in baseball for 3B) and 117 wRC+ (9th). Since June 1st he's 3rd in WAR and 2nd in wRC+.


Scott Boras thanks you for your interest in Mr Bregman.

Bidding will start at $30MM/year, 7 years minimum. Do we have an opening?
If somebody is going to guarantee $200+ million over 7 years for a 30 year old guy who doesn't show up until mid-late June every year, they can have him.
Prosperdick
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txags92 said:

Mathguy64 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Don't look now but Breggy is up to 3.2 WAR (5th in baseball for 3B) and 117 wRC+ (9th). Since June 1st he's 3rd in WAR and 2nd in wRC+.


Scott Boras thanks you for your interest in Mr Bregman.

Bidding will start at $30MM/year, 7 years minimum. Do we have an opening?
If somebody is going to guarantee $200+ million over 7 years for a 30 year old guy who doesn't show up until mid-late June every year, they can have him.
As much as I love Breggy I can't argue with this logic. We all loved Springer and Correa too but when the price gets too high and outrageous you have to cut bait.
Quo Vadis?
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You gotta admire the stones on these guys. I don't care how good I am, I could be the love child of Albert Pujols and Shohei Ohtani, and if they said "5 years 50 million dollars" i'm falling on the ground and weeping.
Prosperdick
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Quo Vadis? said:

You gotta admire the stones on these guys. I don't care how good I am, I could be the love child of Albert Pujols and Shohei Ohtani, and if they said "5 years 50 million dollars" i'm falling on the ground and weeping.
It's all perspective....the agent tells him "this player is earning this and you know you're way better than he is" and it just goes from there.

It's a vicious cycle and at some point the economics won't add up but we're obviously not there yet as we don't have scores of teams filing for bankruptcy.
Farmer1906
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The Astros have the best odds of winning a division in the AL.

Mr.Bond
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Interesting. I'd think for sure the Indians did
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

txags92
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Prosperdick said:

txags92 said:

Mathguy64 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Don't look now but Breggy is up to 3.2 WAR (5th in baseball for 3B) and 117 wRC+ (9th). Since June 1st he's 3rd in WAR and 2nd in wRC+.


Scott Boras thanks you for your interest in Mr Bregman.

Bidding will start at $30MM/year, 7 years minimum. Do we have an opening?
If somebody is going to guarantee $200+ million over 7 years for a 30 year old guy who doesn't show up until mid-late June every year, they can have him.
As much as I love Breggy I can't argue with this logic. We all loved Springer and Correa too but when the price gets too high and outrageous you have to cut bait.

Don't get me wrong, I love the guy too, despite his slow starts, but I don't want to see us sign a stupid money contract that long just to keep him here.

I am slightly curious about the couple of pitchers who have said Bregman made suggestions that seem to have worked out for them. I am wondering who the agent is for those pitchers. Nothing against Bregman at all, and not doubting he might have helped them, but as slimy as Boras is, it wouldn't surprise me if he put them up to mentioning it publicly to help Bregman's veteran rep.
EastCoastAgNc
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n_touch
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Quote:

In general there is a lot of luck and variance in situational hitting, but coaches say Yainer Diaz really has refined his approach and minimized big moments better than he did last season, when he felt he had to produce just to play
Amazing what happens when you get more at bats
_veeyah_
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If Tucker comes back (praying he does) do y'all keep Diaz batting 4th and place Tucker 5th??? or do y'all keep Tuck at 4th???
Proudag06
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n_touch said:

Quote:

In general there is a lot of luck and variance in situational hitting, but coaches say Yainer Diaz really has refined his approach and minimized big moments better than he did last season, when he felt he had to produce just to play
Amazing what happens when you get more at bats


Thank you Dusty!
Beau Holder
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Altuve
Tucker
Yordan
Diaz
Bregman unless he literally never gets off this tear
The Porkchop Express
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n_touch said:

Quote:

In general there is a lot of luck and variance in situational hitting, but coaches say Yainer Diaz really has refined his approach and minimized big moments better than he did last season, when he felt he had to produce just to play
Amazing what happens when you get more at bats
If you take away Yainer's bad May (17-85, .200), he's hitting .326 the rest of the year.
Life is better with a beagle
Chef Elko
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Prosperdick said:

txags92 said:

Mathguy64 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Don't look now but Breggy is up to 3.2 WAR (5th in baseball for 3B) and 117 wRC+ (9th). Since June 1st he's 3rd in WAR and 2nd in wRC+.


Scott Boras thanks you for your interest in Mr Bregman.

Bidding will start at $30MM/year, 7 years minimum. Do we have an opening?
If somebody is going to guarantee $200+ million over 7 years for a 30 year old guy who doesn't show up until mid-late June every year, they can have him.
As much as I love Breggy I can't argue with this logic. We all loved Springer and Correa too but when the price gets too high and outrageous you have to cut bait.

Seeing insane returns at the trade deadline this year and how expensive the FA market has become, the game may change some. If I had a franchise, it's compelling to trade away veterans and even younger players in the bigs to stash talent and try to make a massive run with a bunch of guys under control/arbitration. Tanking in a different way and the franchise will be cyclical, but you have more chances to win big.
Farmer1906
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_veeyah_ said:

If Tucker comes back (praying he does) do y'all keep Diaz batting 4th and place Tucker 5th??? or do y'all keep Tuck at 4th???


What would I do?

Altuve
Alvarez (or Tucker)
Bregman
Tucker (or Alvarez)
Diaz

I think Espada will do
Altuve
Bregman
Alvarez
Tucker
Diaz
Wabs
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Altuve
Tucker
Bregman
Yordan
Diaz
Pena

but I've always been a fan of Tucker batting 2nd...
The Porkchop Express
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I would have called myself crazy for saying this a few months ago, but I'd put Tucker 5th. The top 4 are going too good right now to mess with them, and Alvarez 2nd clearly failed in the start of the year.
Life is better with a beagle
_veeyah_
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It will be very interesting to see what Espada would do, I think the top 4 right now are hot so I wouldn't mess with it. But I'd also throw in that opposing managers would think twice of throwing a Left handed pitcher if we had Yordan, Diaz and Tuck in that order even though I know both Tuck and Yordan hit lefties really well.
redline248
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Quote:

when he felt he had to produce just to play
Chandler still taking shots at Dusty
Prosperdick
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Proudag06 said:

n_touch said:

Quote:

In general there is a lot of luck and variance in situational hitting, but coaches say Yainer Diaz really has refined his approach and minimized big moments better than he did last season, when he felt he had to produce just to play
Amazing what happens when you get more at bats


Thank you Dusty!
We'd be going for our 3rd title in a row right now if not for that stubborn jack ass. OK, I promised I wouldn't bring Donkey up all year and I just couldn't bite my tongue any longer. Sorry.

Anyway, back to our regularly scheduled program.
Heineken-Ashi
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Wabs said:

Altuve
Tucker
Bregman
Yordan
Diaz
Pena

but I've always been a fan of Tucker batting 2nd...
Bregs is hot, but he's proven time and again he's not a 3-hole hitter. Don't mess with what's working, especially in the height of it working.

I agree with the guy above. Tucker 5th and move them around if some start to cool off.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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