***** 2024 Houston Astros Season Thread ***** [Staff Warning]

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Harry Dunne
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redline248 said:

Chas being hit in the foot probably kept him from scoring just now
A welcome change from the usual culprit…Chas not getting on base.
redline248
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Harry Dunne said:

redline248 said:

Chas being hit in the foot probably kept him from scoring just now
A welcome change from the usual culprit…Chas not getting on base.
3 out of 4 PA, today
EastCoastAgNc
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EastCoastAgNc
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tjack16
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Yankees were 51-24 (110 win pace)


They now sit at 60-44 and as that tweet alluded to, 9-20 in that span.

Mirroring pretty much their season in 2022 where they started off the best team in baseball and had everybody fooled. This time their only saving grace is the orioles are also scuffling
W
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do the Astros have the trade capital...

to get an .800 OPS first baseman (Paredes) with 3 years of control remaining?

sounds quite expensive
tylhair
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Next four games are against Dodgers (3) and Paul Skenes (1).

While Mariners get the 10 game L streaking White Sox.

Not ideal, need to play up to the competition.
linkdude
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feelsgoodman
txags92
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W said:

do the Astros have the trade capital...

to get an .800 OPS first baseman (Paredes) with 3 years of control remaining?

sounds quite expensive
We will have to give up at least one and probably more than one player we don't want to give up as part of any trade to make that happen.
tylhair
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txags92 said:

W said:

do the Astros have the trade capital...

to get an .800 OPS first baseman (Paredes) with 3 years of control remaining?

sounds quite expensive
We will have to give up at least one and probably more than one player we don't want to give up as part of any trade to make that happen.


I've been a huge prospect hugger since 2012, but I don't really view anyone in our system as "a player I don't want to give up" at this time.

From my perspective, we are in the last 1-3 years of the elite competitive window. Prospects will not greatly help the astros get a third championship in that time. Acquiring controllable MLB contributors is more important to me at this time than previous years.
EastCoastAgNc
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He has parades on his wish list going to the Yankees
Ag_07
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The problem is depth.

If Dana and Crane go all-in it's going to be rough over the next 1-3 years when we have injuries and no one to backfill.

It would be kinda like where we are now but worse. We're not going to have JV or Framber in this rotation for much longer and then throw in a couple injuries and no decent prospects to step in and it gets ugly quick.

There are going to be some tough decisions to be made for sure.
All I do is Nguyen
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Disney finally added one of my favorite childhood baseball movies: Angels in the Outfield (1994). Watching with my kids this morning
txags92
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tylhair said:

txags92 said:

W said:

do the Astros have the trade capital...

to get an .800 OPS first baseman (Paredes) with 3 years of control remaining?

sounds quite expensive
We will have to give up at least one and probably more than one player we don't want to give up as part of any trade to make that happen.


I've been a huge prospect hugger since 2012, but I don't really view anyone in our system as "a player I don't want to give up" at this time.

From my perspective, we are in the last 1-3 years of the elite competitive window. Prospects will not greatly help the astros get a third championship in that time. Acquiring controllable MLB contributors is more important to me at this time than previous years.

I would disagree. We made our dynasty out of stockpiling prospects and have continued it mostly by having those prospects pan out and mature. Very few of our trades of prospects for established MLB players have yielded more than minor role players over the last few years. I think there are a few guys you have to keep around to see if they continue to progress as rapidly as it appears they might, like Brice Mathews. You don't have to keep them all, but at this point I would be more in favor of moving guys like Chas and Bregman (if you don't expect to resign him) in favor of other teams highly rated prospects. As you say, we are coming towards the close of this chapter, and I would prefer to go into the next one with a well stocked farm system instead of giving up our best future prospects for middle of the road level guys.
EastCoastAgNc
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Why would we trade Alex now?
Mose Schrute
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Anyone know which game Skenes is slated to pitch?
Trying to make it to a game next week.
txags92
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EastCoastAgNc said:

Why would we trade Alex now?
Because if we are going to have to give up something we would rather keep to get what we want, and the team is making plans to move forward without him next year, it makes sense to get something of value for him instead of just letting him go. I would rather keep him, but if it means giving up 3 guys we would rather keep from the farm system instead, I would rather let Bregman go.
Farmer1906
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txags92 said:

EastCoastAgNc said:

Why would we trade Alex now?
Because if we are going to have to give up something we would rather keep to get what we want, and the team is making plans to move forward without him next year, it makes sense to get something of value for him instead of just letting him go. I would rather keep him, but if it means giving up 3 guys we would rather keep from the farm system instead, I would rather let Bregman go.
Would anyone give us more than the compensation pick we will get for him? And will it be more than the value he's bringing to the 2024 team? Because the dropoff from Bregman to the next 3B on the roster is massive. And if you just say 'trade for Parades', then the Rays have zero interest in Bregman so we'd be giving up key prospects regardless.
EastCoastAgNc
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txags92
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Farmer1906 said:

txags92 said:

EastCoastAgNc said:

Why would we trade Alex now?
Because if we are going to have to give up something we would rather keep to get what we want, and the team is making plans to move forward without him next year, it makes sense to get something of value for him instead of just letting him go. I would rather keep him, but if it means giving up 3 guys we would rather keep from the farm system instead, I would rather let Bregman go.
Would anyone give us more than the compensation pick we will get for him? And will it be more than the value he's bringing to the 2024 team? Because the dropoff from Bregman to the next 3B on the roster is massive. And if you just say 'trade for Parades', then the Rays have zero interest in Bregman so we'd be giving up key prospects regardless.
Yeah, I am not saying it is something we should do or that anybody would want to trade us something valuable enough to make it worth it. Just using it as an example to say that I would rather see the team make those kinds of trades when it makes sense than try to mortgage our farm system for a #4 starter or to outbid the Yankees for Paredes.
texasaggie2015
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An important thing to remember is that Dana Brown is elite (one of, if not the best in baseball) at talent evaluation. The MLB top prospect rankings we all like to use aren't really that close to how they view these guys internally at all.

Just something to keep in mind if we make a move that seemingly depletes a big chunk of our farm system. His opinion on certain players may be a lot different than how other teams view him.

I remember cringing when we had to give up Clifford and Gilbert for JV. I was told back then "just wait" and turns out neither of those guys have really lit the world on fire since they left the system.
Farmer1906
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The mention of our Dynasty got me thinking, what has been the single biggest factor? I pulled the WAR from 2017 to 2024.

During this time our WAR has been 369.2. I looked at everyone with at least a 3 WAR during that time (33 players).

Here is the breakdown:

Aquired - WAR
Draft - 132.2
Trade - 95.2
Int Signing - 81.8
FA Signing - 17.6
Waiver Claim - 6.1

It is probably safe to say the draft is the highest for most teams. I would guess that no one has hit international signings like we have or had success of hitting the jackpot on trades. (JV, Cole, Yordan, Pressly).

One thing that does stand out if the lack of FA signings. Have we just sucked at acquiring new players from other orgs on the open market? Or is that a flawed way of doing business? We all know it is the most expensive way of doing business. This makes me want to make some splash trades for multiyears even more now.

Just for ****s & giggles here are the bottom 5.
Nivaldo Rodriguez
Joe Biagini
Robel Garcia
Carlos Beltran
Jose Abreu (dead last)
Farmer1906
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I am going to have to disagree with you on Clifford. He started slow, but he's about as hot as anyone. June 1.009 OPS, July 1.079. All he does is draw walks, strike out, and hit nukes. It is no where near decided yet, but I think there is still a chance we end up regretting this one long term.
texasaggie2015
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Yeah, it had been longer since I checked than I realized.
EastCoastAgNc
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Ag_07
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Quote:

Just for ****s & giggles here are the bottom 5.
Nivaldo Rodriguez
Joe Biagini
Robel Garcia
Carlos Beltran
Jose Abreu (dead last)

Yeah but Carlos' contributions aren't captured by WAR


txags92
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Farmer1906 said:

The mention of our Dynasty got me thinking, what has been the single biggest factor? I pulled the WAR from 2017 to 2024.

During this time our WAR has been 369.2. I looked at everyone with at least a 3 WAR during that time (33 players).

Here is the breakdown:

Aquired - WAR
Draft - 132.2
Trade - 95.2
Int Signing - 81.8
FA Signing - 17.6
Waiver Claim - 6.1

It is probably safe to say the draft is the highest for most teams. I would guess that no one has hit international signings like we have or had success of hitting the jackpot on trades. (JV, Cole, Yordan, Pressly).

One thing that does stand out if the lack of FA signings. Have we just sucked at acquiring new players from other orgs on the open market? Or is that a flawed way of doing business? We all know it is the most expensive way of doing business. This makes me want to make some splash trades for multiyears even more now.

Just for ****s & giggles here are the bottom 5.
Nivaldo Rodriguez
Joe Biagini
Robel Garcia
Carlos Beltran
Jose Abreu (dead last)
Would be interesting to see the WAR on the guys we traded away over that same time period. Did we make good trades?
Beat40
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Just think about when most guys are signing FA deals in MLB. Most guys now are signing true free agency deals around 26-28 because of the rookie deal timeline and the ability for teams to delay their MLB time clock.

26-28 are the athletes prime years, so for signing guys, even to 5 year deals, the majority of them may only give you 2-3 excellent years and then start to trend downward around 30-32.

That's why the trades for either younger guys with multiple years left on their deal produce higher WAR values.

I actually expect the rookie deal and MLB service time clock to be a big issue in the next CBA.
Sher Thing
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What would a hypothetical trade for Paredes and/or Fairbanks look like? Loperfido would certainly need to be included no?
3B Paul 97
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Over this run the last 7 years or so, how many prospects have we given up that are making a real impact for their new teams? Seems it has been mostly role players but nothing that would make you cringe outside of Hader and we have him now.
redline248
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July hasn't been that kind to a lot of our hitters. Thank goodness for Yordan, Pena and Bregman. Chas's game yesterday shot his wRC+ up about 54 points

spadilly
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Mose Schrute said:

Anyone know which game Skenes is slated to pitch?
Trying to make it to a game next week.


I believe Monday would be his regular day in the rotation, but still showing as TBD
https://www.mlb.com/pirates/roster/probable-pitchers
Farmer1906
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txags92 said:

Farmer1906 said:

The mention of our Dynasty got me thinking, what has been the single biggest factor? I pulled the WAR from 2017 to 2024.

During this time our WAR has been 369.2. I looked at everyone with at least a 3 WAR during that time (33 players).

Here is the breakdown:

Aquired - WAR
Draft - 132.2
Trade - 95.2
Int Signing - 81.8
FA Signing - 17.6
Waiver Claim - 6.1

It is probably safe to say the draft is the highest for most teams. I would guess that no one has hit international signings like we have or had success of hitting the jackpot on trades. (JV, Cole, Yordan, Pressly).

One thing that does stand out if the lack of FA signings. Have we just sucked at acquiring new players from other orgs on the open market? Or is that a flawed way of doing business? We all know it is the most expensive way of doing business. This makes me want to make some splash trades for multiyears even more now.

Just for ****s & giggles here are the bottom 5.
Nivaldo Rodriguez
Joe Biagini
Robel Garcia
Carlos Beltran
Jose Abreu (dead last)
Would be interesting to see the WAR on the guys we traded away over that same time period. Did we make good trades?
Not all have worked out, but we have made some extremely lopsided trades. The JV (first time) & Yordan ones were massively unfair. Even the Cole one worked out nicely and we gave up some solid pieces. Pressly was a steal. No one should be mad at the ZG one. Some others less impressive, but I can't think of a trade outside of Hader-Gomez/Ratface where we got the bad end by a longshot. Mancini-McDermott may end up hurting and the 2nd JV trade too. Those are TBD.

texasaggie2015
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Not really- but only because there's a good handful of guys most clubs will want more in a deal like that.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him dealt. The farm system is really deep with outfielders.
Mose Schrute
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spadilly said:

Mose Schrute said:

Anyone know which game Skenes is slated to pitch?
Trying to make it to a game next week.


I believe Monday would be his regular day in the rotation, but still showing as TBD
https://www.mlb.com/pirates/roster/probable-pitchers



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