Maybe I'm in the minority then because I've benefited from a change of scenery multiple times in my life. I could be way off base and it's not a thing at all

redline248 said:

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Another question regarding Bregman (or players on the end of a contract in general), do teams value prospects more than draft picks? Would the Astros even get a draft pick if Bregman turns down a Qualifying Offer and signs elsewhere?

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Yes. If he doesn't sign a new contract here they will give him a QO and when he turns that down we get a compensatory draft pick.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Maybe I'm in the minority then because I've benefited from a change of scenery multiple times in my life. I could be way off base and it's not a thing at all

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I guess there's a difference in feeling better because of a change of scenery and actually performing better. To use your comparison, sure, you could have a toxic environment that's weighing on you and holding you back, move somewhere else, and perform better.

But, outside that, most people aren't going to change their output and work ethic, long term, just because of a change of scenery.

You don't think feeling better makes it a hell of a lot easier to perform?

texasaggie2015 said:

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You don't think feeling better makes it a hell of a lot easier to perform?

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I think the bigger issue is why you feel better. Just feeling better because of a change of scenery, nothing more, will be extremely short lived. Won't be long until you're right back in the same cycle of repetitiveness that you were leaving.

Again, there absolutely could be something more substantial to it, and that's different. Don't like the coaches/boss, etc.

Change of scenery means a new clubhouse, new organization, expectations, situation, etc. It's a hard reset. Sometimes it clears the mind and guys are able to figure things out. Especially a guy like Chas who has the added pressure of having to fight his way back into the lineup in the midst of a funk.

I think Blanco has already locked up the biggest surprise, but Brown isn't far behind.

Since the start of May he ranks:

• 6th in ERA
• 26th in WHIP
• 18th in K%
• 35th in FIP
• 26th in xFIP
• 26th in SIERA
• 23rd in IP
• 5th in QS (tied)

A postseason rotation of Brown, Blanco, & Framber ain't too bad. If we can just get JV back, then I feel like we can match up with anyone. Now the issue is getting there, keeping/getting them healthy, & keeping them performing at a high level.

Beat40 said:

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htxag09 said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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You don't think feeling better makes it a hell of a lot easier to perform?

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I think the bigger issue is why you feel better. Just feeling better because of a change of scenery, nothing more, will be extremely short lived. Won't be long until you're right back in the same cycle of repetitiveness that you were leaving.

Again, there absolutely could be something more substantial to it, and that's different. Don't like the coaches/boss, etc.

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JD Martinez is the best example, honestly. He was alright with Houston, but he's said once he moved to Arizona, there was a coach he really connected with that somehow was able to teach him in a way he better understood, and the result was his break out.

I am with you that a change scenery for the sake of change 95% of time isn't going to do anything. If the change of scenery leads to a new connection with someone else that can help or become a good mentor/teacher, or if the change of scenery leads to a change in habits/lifestyle, THAT can be effective.

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He had that coach in Cali (I think) at the very tail end of his Houston career. He was reinventing himself and doing so regardless of location.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Change of scenery means a new clubhouse, new organization, expectations, situation, etc. It's a hard reset. Sometimes it clears the mind and guys are able to figure things out. Especially a guy like Chas who has the added pressure of having to fight his way back into the lineup in the midst of a funk.

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Having Loperfido come up and hit lights out while Chas was out probably put a good bit of pressure on Chas and he hasn't been effective since he returned. Knowing that there is a guy that is younger and cheaper on the roster hitting better than him has to weigh on Chas' mind.

One final Chas post for the day:

If you extrapolate his June numbers to a 162 game span it looks like:

486 PA, 111 hits, 30 HR and 101 RBI. That tracks pretty closely with what he did last year.

Maybe it's just an issue of not knowing he's going to play every day. Jake has basically taken CF, and now he's got to compete with Yordan, Dubon, Cabbage and Loperfido for time in the corners. If Tucker ever comes back, that is even fewer potential ABs. He probably feels like every single time he steps into the box will decide his future in Houston. Under that, I would agree going somewhere else could do wonders.

Honestly, I don't see any way Houston leaves the trade deadline with all 4 of Chas, Dubon, Cabbage and Loperfido on the roster.

Change of scenery isn't some magic fix all but it can help.

Remember JD Martinez? And we just saw Victor Robles who was DFA'd by WAS and is now hitting .400 something with SEA.

It's probably mostly mental but some coaching staffs can identify certain things to help a guy out.

Stros have done that with countless guys.

Change of scenery might be the answer but I'm the camp that says he just needs regular PT. And he's not going to get that here. At best he's going to be a split LFer, playing against LHP with Yordan the DH while Yordan plays the position against RHP. Right now hes just tail end of the line behind Joey and Cabbage because of all RHP we are seeing.

I have no idea what this means but it's a middle sized sample and it's significant.

Chas has a big day/night split. Thats strange.

Farmer1906 said:

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EastCoastAgNc said:

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.@JonHeyman mentions a potential All-Star fit at first base for the Astros ahead of the July 30 Trade Deadline 👀 pic.twitter.com/YCtIY6BZrX

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 22, 2024

How much would he cost?

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A lot. 3.5 more years on control.

I do think the Rays would be a good trade partner. Littell, Rasmussen, Fairbanks, Yandy, Eflin, Poche, Paredes, & Springs all make sense in different ways.

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The Rays are both buying and selling. I don't know exactly what that means but one interpretation is they want to trade veterans for younger guys already in the bigs. Based on that definition, could they be interested in Blanco and Spaghetti? We are concerned about their ability to hold up down the stretch but they are contributors right now. If they can be big pieces in a Springs and Paredes trade, I think that's a discussion worth having. That alone isn't enough but it does give the Rays guys who are cheap and playing right now. Even Meyers would meet that definition. Could you basically replace Meyers with Joey / Dubon (maybe Leon) without a big drop off?

Mathguy64 said:

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I have no idea what this means but it's a middle sized sample and it's significant.

Chas has a big day/night split. Thats strange.

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He's not a "big boy" yet. Night games are past his bedtime - probably Dusty

MaxPower said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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EastCoastAgNc said:

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.@JonHeyman mentions a potential All-Star fit at first base for the Astros ahead of the July 30 Trade Deadline 👀 pic.twitter.com/YCtIY6BZrX

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 22, 2024

How much would he cost?

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A lot. 3.5 more years on control.

I do think the Rays would be a good trade partner. Littell, Rasmussen, Fairbanks, Yandy, Eflin, Poche, Paredes, & Springs all make sense in different ways.

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The Rays are both buying and selling. I don't know exactly what that means but one interpretation is they want to trade veterans for younger guys already in the bigs. Based on that definition, could they be interested in Blanco and Spaghetti? We are concerned about their ability to hold up down the stretch but they are contributors right now. If they can be big pieces in a Springs and Paredes trade, I think that's a discussion worth having. That alone isn't enough but it does give the Rays guys who are cheap and playing right now. Even Meyers would meet that definition. Could you basically replace Meyers with Joey / Dubon (maybe Leon) without a big drop off?

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Anyone with short control or "big" money makes sense.

• Eflin (13.3 AAV, 1.5 years)
• Diaz (8 AAV, 1.5 years)
• Springs (7.75 AAV, 2.5 years) - available but very expensive
• Lowe (4.0 AAV, 0.5 years) - 2 expensive (relative term) team opiotns (10.5, 11.5)
• Fairbanks (4.0 AAV, 1.5 years) - 1 expensive team option (3.67)
• Rosario (1.4 AAV, 0.5 years)
• Armstrong (2.1 AAV, 0.5 years)
• Poche (2.4 AAV, 1.5 years) - $ will go up
• Alexander (1.95 AAV, 1.5 years) - $ will go up
• Littell (1.85 AAV, 1.5 years) - $ will go up
• Arozarena (8.1 AAV, 2.5 years) - $ will go up
• Paredes (3.4 AAV, 3.5 years) - $ will go up

I wouldn't be shocked if most of Eflin, Diaz, Lowe, & Randy are moved.

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Splitting hairs, but this is a significant dropoff. Jake has been better offensively & defensively. His expected #s are quite a bit ahead so if we're projecting Jake is poised for a much better 2nd half.

texasaggie2015 said:

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When I say a change of scenery I mean all of those things that come with it.

I hope you guys know I'm not naive enough to believe that just looking at something different is going to turn you into an all-star out of nowhere.

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Sure - I was just furthering the discussion with stuff from my experiences.

Nice series win this past weekend and a great start coming off the break. Hoping for more offense in our last series ever at the Coliseum coming up.

Looking ahead a bit, Arrighetti and Bloss are scheduled for 2 more starts through next Monday before the trade deadline next Tuesday. Maybe those will be the last starts for either as an Astro. Skenes is scheduled to pitch that Monday which should draw a big crowd and be a good test after playing the Doyers.

The schedule is favorable enough the next 2 weeks to start building a good lead in the division, but this 2024 war of attrition means taking no series for granted. I saw earlier that the Braves had to put Fried and Albies on the IL.

This is an interesting nugget to keep an eye on.

Seattle and Arlington are both near the top of the league in "luckiest" pitching staffs.



Seattle's regression means they go from elite to very very good, but Arlingont drops from slightly above avg to slightly below avg.

The top guys to keep on eye on from regression:

Seattle (ERA & xERA Diff)

• Emerson (-1.25)
• Munoz (-1.20)
• Miller (-0.52)

Most of the gap is focused on a few without a bunch to offset.

Arlington (ERA & xERA Diff)

• Lorenzen (-1.30)
• Gray (-0.86)
• Latz (-0.82)
• Yates (-0.71)
• Urena (-0.69)
• Eovaldi (-0.62)
• Hernandez (-0.57)

That is a laundry list of arms.

Houston (ERA & xERA Diff)

• Scott (-1.61)
• Blanco (-1.04)
• Montro (-0.65)
• Martinez (-0.64)
• Abreu (-0.52) - makes sense will all the traffic.

Not insignificant. Arrighetti, Hader, Dubin, & Brown are on the flip side to offset.

Skubal and Burnes are the last 2 aces/*All Stars we've faced at home that I can recall offhand, and we hit both of them well.

linkdude said:

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Source: James Paxton, who’s 8-2 with a 4.43 ERA and has taken every turn in the rotation this season, has been DFA’d by the Dodgers. Surprising move, but probably rooted in needing bullpen help now and Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw coming back soon.

First: @ByRobertMurray.

— Alden González (@Alden_Gonzalez) July 22, 2024

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He's fallen apart after a hot start. Advanced metrics are even more bearish on him but if all Dana truly wants is to chew up innings…..

linkdude said:

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Source: James Paxton, who’s 8-2 with a 4.43 ERA and has taken every turn in the rotation this season, has been DFA’d by the Dodgers. Surprising move, but probably rooted in needing bullpen help now and Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw coming back soon.

First: @ByRobertMurray.

— Alden González (@Alden_Gonzalez) July 22, 2024

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Dodgers needed to clear a 40-man roster spot and active roster spot for River Ryan, who debuts today.

Paxton was 8-2 with a 4.43 ERA in 18 starts, one of just two Dodgers starters to make every turn through the rotation so far. https://t.co/VyhHiuJKzL

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) July 22, 2024

Mediocre consistency, he's on a 1yr $7M deal. May not be bad to pick him up cheap?

If we just want a body, I guess. But he's declining.

I do not want Paxton.

Farmer1906 said:

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If we just want a body, I guess. But he's declining.

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Careful, that might he enough for crane to give him a 3 year $60m contract extension

We should not take this years As lightly. They have put up the most runs in a game twice this season. Yes record wise theyre still bad but they're not the blind squirrel we have thought they were in the past

Aledmys is back with the big club per Chandler

And the Astros

TODAY’S ROSTER MOVES:

The Astros have selected IF Aledmys Díaz (#12) to the Major League roster and have optioned IF Grae Kessinger to Triple A Sugar Land. In a corresponding move, the Astros designated IF David Hensley for assignment.

— Houston Astros (@astros) July 22, 2024