Mathguy64 said:

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Ag_07 said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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I don't think I've ever addressed Bregman to West Palm Beach on here

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And rightfully so...Because it's not even in the realm of discussion.

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Now Asheville on the other hand…

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99% of the board would be happy with the end of the bench for a few days

Strength of Schedule (via @baseball_ref):

+0.5 HOU (strongest)
+0.4 BAL OAK CWS
+0.3 SEA
+0.2 MIL TOR MIN CIN BOS LAA
+0.1 CLE DET
+0.0 TEX ATL CHC NYM WSH STL
-0.1 KC MIA
-0.2 NYY PIT SF
-0.3 LAD SD
-0.4 ARI COL
-0.5
-0.6 TB
-0.7 PHI (weakest)

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) May 10, 2024

After reading that fangraphs article about Pena's weird Run Value on statcast...he has posted 2 games in a row of positive WPA (according to baseball reference)

Mathguy64 said:

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This is fish or cut bait time in the next 2 weeks.

3 @ Detroit
4 vs Oakland
3 vs Milwaukee
3 vs LAA
3 @ Oakland

If they have any chance they realistically need to 12-4. That's a big ask the way they are playing but if they want to have a chance they have to start digging out if this hole now. That would go from 11 under water to "just" 3. I don't know that this team can turn a switch like other years but that's what it will take.

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I was looking at the schedule this morning and had very similar thoughts. If we want to turn this ***** around, we need to make (and should be capable of making) a run these next two weeks. Win at least two at Detroit, and I think it might be possible. MIL is the only team on that upcoming schedule that should be competitive. Unfortunately, we are at home for that series, and as far as the other series, well, we all know our track record of playing against teams we should beat soundly the last few years...

This could be a reset to the season. It could also be the final nail in the coffin.

texasaggie2015 said:

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There's a surplus of outfielders down there. I'm not sure what the Marlins need or what they're looking for, but you could afford to give one of them away if it fills a need on your big league roster.

If they land Jake Burger, I think it's safe to assume the Abreu ship has sailed and we'll see him platoon with Jon the rest of the way and get some starts at third to give Bregman rest. And then it gives you an option as a cheap replacement for Bregman after this year.

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Defensively Burger is pretty bad and outside of getting hot for a few months with the Marlins he's been meh offensively. Big step down from what Bregman was giving you (before this year). Thats the kind of move a team content to slowly slide into irrelevance does (see Astros circa 2006).

We do have too many young OF but I'd rather trade to improve the farm. Move a Meyers or Chas to free up playing time for Leon and grab a lower level 3B or C prospect with upside.

I disagree. He's cheap and under team control. Has a career OPS of almost .800 and hit over 30 tanks last year (and 25 of them were in about 80 games with Chicago).

Nothing wrong with sending a mid-level or lottery ticket prospect who is blocked here to see if Burger can come alive in Houston and be a long term answer. If he is, fantastic. If not, it didn't cost you much at the end of the day.

A third base prospect with strong upside will likely cost a lot more anyways.

Oh, and Tucker is playing at a top 10 level, right now (no surprise). Please let a deal with him get done.

MaxPower said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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There's a surplus of outfielders down there. I'm not sure what the Marlins need or what they're looking for, but you could afford to give one of them away if it fills a need on your big league roster.

If they land Jake Burger, I think it's safe to assume the Abreu ship has sailed and we'll see him platoon with Jon the rest of the way and get some starts at third to give Bregman rest. And then it gives you an option as a cheap replacement for Bregman after this year.

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Defensively Burger is pretty bad and outside of getting hot for a few months with the Marlins he's been meh offensively. Big step down from what Bregman was giving you (before this year). Thats the kind of move a team content to slowly slide into irrelevance does (see Astros circa 2006).

We do have too many young OF but I'd rather trade to improve the farm. Move a Meyers or Chas to free up playing time for Leon and grab a lower level 3B or C prospect with upside.

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I don't think Burger would be coming to replace Bregman. He'd be coming to be a right-handed option at 1B/DH/PH and someone who can spell Bregman occasionally.

He's a career .347 wOBA / .378 xwOBA vs LHP and sold vs RHP too. He's a nice cheap trade option that could help the team immediately without giving up much.

The above poster mentioned Leon, and we saw a tweet yesterday or the day before about Pedro playing a lot better. Do you see (or have you heard) if there is a plan to give him a test run in Houston this year?

They weren't expecting this resurgence at all. I've heard countless times that Leon has just been a victim of circumstance his whole career. Injuries, COVID year, the organization forcing him to learn a new position he wasn't comfortable with. I think now he just doesn't feel pressure and he's coming alive.

I haven't heard if they plan to give him a shot soon, but it's certainly possible especially if he continues to rake.

texasaggie2015 said:

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I disagree. He's cheap and under team control. Has a career OPS of almost .800 and hit over 30 tanks last year (and 25 of them were in about 80 games with Chicago).

Nothing wrong with sending a mid-level or lottery ticket prospect who is blocked here to see if Burger can come alive in Houston and be a long term answer. If he is, fantastic. If not, it didn't cost you much at the end of the day.

A third base prospect with strong upside will likely cost a lot more anyways.

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THat is a good point. He can kind of be Bregman insurance if he leaves or never recovers from this funk.

WAR liked Pena's game yesterday

bumped him from 0.8 to 1.0

fWAR already has him at 1.3.

I would extend him at this point. If he puts up a full season at 90% of this production, his price will skyrocket for an extension.

texasaggie2015 said:

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I disagree. He's cheap and under team control. Has a career OPS of almost .800 and hit over 30 tanks last year (and 25 of them were in about 80 games with Chicago).

Nothing wrong with sending a mid-level or lottery ticket prospect who is blocked here to see if Burger can come alive in Houston and be a long term answer. If he is, fantastic. If not, it didn't cost you much at the end of the day.

A third base prospect with strong upside will likely cost a lot more anyways.

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How are you defining lottery ticket? Keep in mind someone like Matthews is a top 5 prospect for us but would t be in a good farm systems top 15.

Mathguy64 said:

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This is fish or cut bait time in the next 2 weeks.

3 @ Detroit
4 vs Oakland
3 vs Milwaukee
3 vs LAA
3 @ Oakland

If they have any chance they realistically need to 12-4. That's a big ask the way they are playing but if they want to have a chance they have to start digging out if this hole now. That would go from 11 under water to "just" 3. I don't know that this team can turn a switch like other years but that's what it will take.

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yes, the Astros need a couple of sweeps in that stretch

just winning 2 of 3 (and splitting the 4-game series) will take a long time to get to .500

do you really think Bregman is just in a bad slump?

Is there a stat to compare his hit mph this year off the bat vs. his previous years?

I'm wondering because he seems to have lost a lot of power.

Jake Burger won't cost a former first round draft pick. He's likely going to cost one (two at most) guys who are blocked in our system who Miami decides are worth taking a shot on. I'm not familiar with their organization so I'm not sure what their needs are- but for example if they want an outfielder, we have a logjam of them in the system.

MaxPower said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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I disagree. He's cheap and under team control. Has a career OPS of almost .800 and hit over 30 tanks last year (and 25 of them were in about 80 games with Chicago).

Nothing wrong with sending a mid-level or lottery ticket prospect who is blocked here to see if Burger can come alive in Houston and be a long term answer. If he is, fantastic. If not, it didn't cost you much at the end of the day.

A third base prospect with strong upside will likely cost a lot more anyways.

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How are you defining lottery ticket? Keep in mind someone like Matthews is a top 5 prospect for us but would t be in a good farm systems top 15.

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The Marlins paid a top-10ish AA pitcher for him last year. The price will have gone down some. Jake Eder is now 25 in AA and #10 in the White Sox system.

Also on Burger, other teams like the Yankees, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Mets are in more realistic playoff hunts, could just a corner IF and have better farm ammo

checking in with Javy Baez...

what a disaster free agent signing for the Tigers

making $25 MM this year and delivering:

WAR -0.4 and .454 OPS

on the payroll thru 2027

His barrels, barrels per PA and Hard Hit are all down. He has only 4 barrels in 114 batted balls. It very well could be a mechanical flaw he's having to work out, but I am no swing expert.

Eder was the Marlins #5 prospect in 2023 and fangraphs had him in their top 100.

MAROON said:

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do you really think Bregman is just in a bad slump?

Is there a stat to compare his hit mph this year off the bat vs. his previous years?

I'm wondering because he seems to have lost a lot of power.

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Bad slump? Yes and no. I think he has some real mechanical issues in his swing he needs to adjust. But I also think he's starting out rough. You can already see some improvement with his swing selection moving from April to may (lower K, higher BB)

His exit velocity is down, but he was never a guy who had high exit velo. Even in 2019 he was under 90.

His biggest issue IMO are pop ups and ground balls, not line drives and fly balls. Even at a lower exit velo, he's on top or under the ball way way too much.

Baby's reaction to our 2024 record

MaxPower said:

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Eder was the Marlins #5 prospect in 2023 and fangraphs had him in their top 100.

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It fluctuated quite a bit. He was way up there (top 100 type) and then TJ happened and he fell way off. I saw #7 at the end of 2022 according to MLB. Fangraphs was higher on him. He was terrible with the White Sox last year, but looks to be okay this year.

W said:

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checking in with Javy Baez...

what a disaster free agent signing for the Tigers

making $25 MM this year and delivering:

WAR -0.4 and .454 OPS

on the payroll thru 2027

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Little known fact: Baez is Spanish for Hader with a bat...

Just off the top of my head... I think you could get Burger for someone like Kenedy Corona. Corona is elite with the glove in CF but there's doubts whether he'll ever be able to hit enough to stick on a major league roster. And with Pedro Leon surging and Joey Loperfido able to play CF, Corona is very expendable and might make sense for a team willing to take a shot on him.

I am not saying they're trading Corona for Burger. Haha. This is purely an example off the top of my head.

Farmer1906 said:

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MaxPower said:

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Eder was the Marlins #5 prospect in 2023 and fangraphs had him in their top 100.

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It fluctuated quite a bit. He was way up there (top 100 type) and then TJ happened and he fell way off. I saw #7 at the end of 2022 according to MLB. Fangraphs was higher on him. He was terrible with the White Sox last year, but looks to be okay this year.

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MLB had him as their #5 prospect and fangraphs had him in the top 100. We have no one on a top 100. I think we are overestimating the value of our prospects. I'm not opposed to having Burger on the roster, I just am not giving up any one of value (which means we aren't getting him).

I'm not overestimating the value of anyone Burger won't cost anything of value.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Just off the top of my head... I think you could get Burger for someone like Kenedy Corona. Corona is elite with the glove in CF but there's doubts whether he'll ever be able to hit enough to stick on a major league roster. And with Pedro Leon surging and Joey Loperfido able to play CF, Corona is very expendable but might make sense for a team willing to take a shot on him.

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Sure I will trade him for nobody. I find it highly doubtful no one will beat that offer.

The pessimism is strong in that one