That may be decided by how Brown does in his next start. If he lays a turd again, then I think he should be the first to go. He needs to go figure something out with his offspeed stuff that is getting absolutely hammered this season.
***** 2024 Houston Astros Season Thread ***** [Staff Warning]
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Last: 13 days ago by jkag89
So why was Pressly unavailable last night per Espada? Hadn't pitched since Friday
The perfect storm: highly compensated but grossly underperforming players.
The main lesson from today is Jim Crane is a terrible GM. Abreu, Montero and Hader. Plus remember the disputed player that he wanted Click to go after was Starling Marte (who has also been terrible). Basically whoever Crane wants in free agency is who you should cross off your list.
MaxPower said:
The main lesson from today is Jim Crane is a terrible GM. Abreu, Montero and Hader. Plus remember the disputed player that he wanted Click to go after was Starling Marte (who has also been terrible). Basically whoever Crane wants in free agency is who you should cross off your list.
To be fair, he did land JV, and his wild success in doing that likely gave him the confidence to continue interfering.
But we've got a major issue if we added a failing $90M closer to a geriatric $60M Abreu. That kind of stuff tends to slam the window shut.
He landed JV at the cost of the organizations top 2 prospects. Based on how he pitched last year and his absence so far this year, I'm not sure I'd call that a screaming win.f1ghtintexasaggie said:MaxPower said:
The main lesson from today is Jim Crane is a terrible GM. Abreu, Montero and Hader. Plus remember the disputed player that he wanted Click to go after was Starling Marte (who has also been terrible). Basically whoever Crane wants in free agency is who you should cross off your list.
To be fair, he did land JV, and his wild success in doing that likely gave him the confidence to continue interfering.
But we've got a major issue if we added a failing $90M closer to a geriatric $60M Abreu. That kind of stuff tends to slam the window shut.
Another silver lining is that Hader is only signed for...Marvin said:
Silver lining is that the Astros have only lost 4 one-run games...
5 seasons??? Crap!
EastCoastAgNc said:He landed JV at the cost of the organizations top 2 prospects. Based on how he pitched last year and his absence so far this year, I'm not sure I'd call that a screaming win.f1ghtintexasaggie said:MaxPower said:
The main lesson from today is Jim Crane is a terrible GM. Abreu, Montero and Hader. Plus remember the disputed player that he wanted Click to go after was Starling Marte (who has also been terrible). Basically whoever Crane wants in free agency is who you should cross off your list.
To be fair, he did land JV, and his wild success in doing that likely gave him the confidence to continue interfering.
But we've got a major issue if we added a failing $90M closer to a geriatric $60M Abreu. That kind of stuff tends to slam the window shut.
I'm talking about the original landing in 2017, the one that probably won us the WS.
Mentioned it last night. Very thin farm combined with an aging roster and overpaid FAs is not good at all for "keeping the window open". Plus an apparently over-meddling owner and a rookie manager? Ugh......f1ghtintexasaggie said:MaxPower said:
The main lesson from today is Jim Crane is a terrible GM. Abreu, Montero and Hader. Plus remember the disputed player that he wanted Click to go after was Starling Marte (who has also been terrible). Basically whoever Crane wants in free agency is who you should cross off your list.
To be fair, he did land JV, and his wild success in doing that likely gave him the confidence to continue interfering.
But we've got a major issue if we added a failing $90M closer to a geriatric $60M Abreu. That kind of stuff tends to slam the window shut.
This thread now…
Can you really blame Crane for signing Abreu and Hader? Especially Hader
We had a gaping hole at 1B and he was the best 1B available. Everyone was stoked to add him into this lineup and not just us wearing the orange tinted glasses. Many national pundits gave lots of praise to that signing at the time. Yeah he was aging but you're lying your ass off if you said you saw this freefall coming.
Same can be said for Hader. We needed BP arms and got the best available. But I'm also not giving up on Hader. He's only made 2 appearances with a lead. That's not what he was brought here to do.
Thanks to the starters this BP is in such disarray we're using guys out of place, guys don't know when they're coming in, and it's been nothing short of a shlt show. Hoping eventually we can get things ironed out guys can slot back into the designated roles and get some consistency. This piecemeal approach isn't working for anyone.
We had a gaping hole at 1B and he was the best 1B available. Everyone was stoked to add him into this lineup and not just us wearing the orange tinted glasses. Many national pundits gave lots of praise to that signing at the time. Yeah he was aging but you're lying your ass off if you said you saw this freefall coming.
Same can be said for Hader. We needed BP arms and got the best available. But I'm also not giving up on Hader. He's only made 2 appearances with a lead. That's not what he was brought here to do.
Thanks to the starters this BP is in such disarray we're using guys out of place, guys don't know when they're coming in, and it's been nothing short of a shlt show. Hoping eventually we can get things ironed out guys can slot back into the designated roles and get some consistency. This piecemeal approach isn't working for anyone.
This. Having an entire starting rotation worth of pitchers injured isn't exactly an ideal situation.Ag_07 said:
Thanks to the starters this BP is in such disarray we're using guys out of place, guys don't know when they're coming in, and it's been nothing short of a shlt show. Hoping eventually we can get things ironed out guys can slot back into the designated roles and get some consistency. This piecemeal approach isn't working for anyone.
Several of us were concerned with Abreu's power drop off at the time of his signing. His HR # fell by 50% from 2021 to 2022 and RBi decreased by 40+. He only hit 3 HR in this last 58 games in 2022.
The Hader signing was exciting but even at the time it felt distinctly like a Yankees / Mets signing. Like your white trash neighbor who has a bunch of holes in his fence and his AC dies every August,, but one Saturday you wake up and he's got a brand new F350 in the driveway. You think, yea that's, cool, but couldn't you have used that $ to fix like 4 other things?
The Hader signing was exciting but even at the time it felt distinctly like a Yankees / Mets signing. Like your white trash neighbor who has a bunch of holes in his fence and his AC dies every August,, but one Saturday you wake up and he's got a brand new F350 in the driveway. You think, yea that's, cool, but couldn't you have used that $ to fix like 4 other things?
Life is better with a beagle
Ag_07 said:
Can you really blame Crane for signing Abreu and Hader? Especially Hader
We had a gaping hole at 1B and he was the best 1B available. Everyone was stoked to add him into this lineup and not just us wearing the orange tinted glasses. Many national pundits gave lots of praise to that signing at the time. Yeah he was aging but you're lying your ass off if you said you saw this freefall coming.
Same can be said for Hader. We needed BP arms and got the best available. But I'm also not giving up on Hader. He's only made 2 appearances with a lead. That's not what he was brought here to do.
Thanks to the starters this BP is in such disarray we're using guys out of place, guys don't know when they're coming in, and it's been nothing short of a shlt show. Hoping eventually we can get things ironed out guys can slot back into the designated roles and get some consistency. This piecemeal approach isn't working for anyone.
I generally agree. I was personally excited for both signings, but I think the ire comes in that any schmuck would've done those deals. Would Click have? Would Ludhow? Maybe, maybe not, because certainly Ludhow operated in a different plane than just what every schmuck (myself very much included) would have wanted.
On the leadership front, I'd really like to see the team go after Willy Adames in the offseason. Both TB and the Brewers have raved about his presence. He's better offensively and defensively than Pena anyway and there are plenty of SS needy teams who would trade for Pena (basically anyone in the NL West).
The Porkchop Express said:
Several of us were concerned with Abreu's power drop off at the time of his signing. His HR # fell by 50% from 2021 to 2022 and RBi decreased by 40+. He only hit 3 HR in this last 58 games in 2022.
The Hader signing was exciting but even at the time it felt distinctly like a Yankees / Mets signing. Like your white trash neighbor who has a bunch of holes in his fence and his AC dies every August,, but one Saturday you wake up and he's got a brand new F350 in the driveway. You think, yea that's, cool, but couldn't you have used that $ to fix like 4 other things?
What are all these holes we needed to fill?
A LH depth bat off the bench, a 4th OFer, and maybe 1B if you didn't believe in Abreu.
The glaring hole and need was the BP.
I was excited for Abreu and Hader signings. Admittedly more excited about Hader and a little confused as to why Abreu got 3 years instead of just 2
I think a huge issue is the amount of money we have put into guys who are not performing and that is keeping us from being able to make further moves
Hader - $19.5M (he could easily turn it around)
Abreu - $19M
Bregman - $28.5M
McCullers - $17M
Graveman - $8M
$91 million total between those 5 guys
That's a lot of money for 3 guys underperforming, 1 injured in the offseason, and 1 guy who hasn't been healthy/on the field since 2022
I think a huge issue is the amount of money we have put into guys who are not performing and that is keeping us from being able to make further moves
Hader - $19.5M (he could easily turn it around)
Abreu - $19M
Bregman - $28.5M
McCullers - $17M
Graveman - $8M
$91 million total between those 5 guys
That's a lot of money for 3 guys underperforming, 1 injured in the offseason, and 1 guy who hasn't been healthy/on the field since 2022
Giving Abreu a 3 year deal at his age was unexpected for me, but that was probably the only way to get him.
Spencer Arrighetti isn't guaranteed another start in Houston's rotation. If the final image of his first major-league stint is striking out Ronald Acuña Jr., it's a nice way to end a two-start stretch that proved "I can pitch here" - https://t.co/Gkymrq9QsN
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) April 16, 2024
He kinda reminds me of where Blanco was last year. Inconsistent, but has potential
Starting pitching.Ag_07 said:The Porkchop Express said:
Several of us were concerned with Abreu's power drop off at the time of his signing. His HR # fell by 50% from 2021 to 2022 and RBi decreased by 40+. He only hit 3 HR in this last 58 games in 2022.
The Hader signing was exciting but even at the time it felt distinctly like a Yankees / Mets signing. Like your white trash neighbor who has a bunch of holes in his fence and his AC dies every August,, but one Saturday you wake up and he's got a brand new F350 in the driveway. You think, yea that's, cool, but couldn't you have used that $ to fix like 4 other things?
What are all these holes we needed to fill?
A LH depth bat off the bench, a 4th OFer, and maybe 1B if you didn't believe in Abreu.
The glaring hole and need was the BP.
Verlander is 41 and took a noticeable step backwards in 2023 from 2022
No idea what you're getting from Framber after his 2023 post-season meltdown
LMJ - no idea if he'll pitch again
Brown was not good in 2023
Luis Garcia missed almost all of '23 and is still recovering
The only reliables from 23 were Javier and France, and France was hit or miss last year.
Life is better with a beagle
Middle relief to fill the hole left by Neris, Maton and Stanek.Ag_07 said:The Porkchop Express said:
Several of us were concerned with Abreu's power drop off at the time of his signing. His HR # fell by 50% from 2021 to 2022 and RBi decreased by 40+. He only hit 3 HR in this last 58 games in 2022.
The Hader signing was exciting but even at the time it felt distinctly like a Yankees / Mets signing. Like your white trash neighbor who has a bunch of holes in his fence and his AC dies every August,, but one Saturday you wake up and he's got a brand new F350 in the driveway. You think, yea that's, cool, but couldn't you have used that $ to fix like 4 other things?
What are all these holes we needed to fill?
A LH depth bat off the bench, a 4th OFer, and maybe 1B if you didn't believe in Abreu.
The glaring hole and need was the BP.
Starting outfielder - Lourdes Gurriel type player
Starting pitcher - Sonny Gray type player
Not replacing Abreu in the offseason made some sense because it appeared he may have turned it around at the end of last season. Now we know that not to be true, but it is what it is.
Ag_07 said:The Porkchop Express said:
Several of us were concerned with Abreu's power drop off at the time of his signing. His HR # fell by 50% from 2021 to 2022 and RBi decreased by 40+. He only hit 3 HR in this last 58 games in 2022.
The Hader signing was exciting but even at the time it felt distinctly like a Yankees / Mets signing. Like your white trash neighbor who has a bunch of holes in his fence and his AC dies every August,, but one Saturday you wake up and he's got a brand new F350 in the driveway. You think, yea that's, cool, but couldn't you have used that $ to fix like 4 other things?
What are all these holes we needed to fill?
A LH depth bat off the bench, a 4th OFer, and maybe 1B if you didn't believe in Abreu.
The glaring hole and need was the BP.
#3ish SP, 1b, CF, and middle relief. Instead we spent $90M on a second closer.
I mean I give credit for taking the shots. I was excited about both Abreu and Hader. They were safe (albeit expensive) bets, but sometimes safe bets don't pay out. And then you're stuck with the price tag, which severely hampers you ability to wiggle out of the hole.
Is moving Hunter Brown to the bullpen this season a realistic option?
Exactly. These were reasonable signings at the moment.
They weren't the Monetero 'WTF are we doing this is nuts' type deals.
And again...Hader still can prove it was worth it once this BP gets sorted out.
They weren't the Monetero 'WTF are we doing this is nuts' type deals.
And again...Hader still can prove it was worth it once this BP gets sorted out.
I think the only real concern right now is Abreu. The back end of our bullpen is not going to sport 8+ ERAs all season. Guys like Bregman will get going. The rotation will improve as starters come back. But Abreu is an issue.
I really thought he would have a decent rebound season and look more like he did in the playoffs last year. He had a pretty good spring, too, which was encouraging. I don't think anyone could have predicted what we've seen so far.
I think he needs a reset. Put him on the IL and don't let him touch a bat for two weeks. Then start to ease back into it with light cage work, some live BP, and then a rehab stint. If that doesn't yield better results, move on.
I really thought he would have a decent rebound season and look more like he did in the playoffs last year. He had a pretty good spring, too, which was encouraging. I don't think anyone could have predicted what we've seen so far.
I think he needs a reset. Put him on the IL and don't let him touch a bat for two weeks. Then start to ease back into it with light cage work, some live BP, and then a rehab stint. If that doesn't yield better results, move on.
Especially when we all know Cuban ballplayers are very loose with their real ages.cc10106 said:
Giving Abreu a 3 year deal at his age was unexpected for me, but that was probably the only way to get him.
iBrad said:
I think he needs a reset. Put him on the IL and don't let him touch a bat.
Life is better with a beagle
The last point he makes is the best one...having this system in place provides the real-time correction, and lets face it, embarrassment to the HPU. That should drive the behavior we want, umps to recognize their own blind spots and work to correct them.All I do is Nguyen said:
Rich Eisen is a wonderful podcast to listen, if ya'll are not. He makes a LOT of valid points here
I do wonder if Angel would have called the next two pitches strikes after being humiliated on the first pitch but he's so arrogantly defiant I could see him being the lone HPU who wouldn't change. If you created a terrible umpire in the lab I'm not sure you could come up with a "better one" than Hernandez.
I don't see why not. Make him a long reliever. An issue with him is he has a bunch of offspeed pitches but none are good. Being able to increase velocity on the heater a couple miles per hour and focus on one off speed pitch out of the pen may be what he needs.cc10106 said:
Is moving Hunter Brown to the bullpen this season a realistic option?
MaxPower said:I don't see why not. Make him a long reliever. An issue with him is he has a bunch of offspeed pitches but none are good. Being able to increase velocity on the heater a couple miles per hour and focus on one off speed pitch out of the pen may be what he needs.cc10106 said:
Is moving Hunter Brown to the bullpen this season a realistic option?
Once Framber comes back, he might benefit from going down to AAA if he still can't get through starts.
yes, it's the cumulative effect of the bad contracts -- so many at once -- that is taking a toll
I've mentioned this before, but Jose Abreu was the #1 target on the board for the Astros before and after Click left. He would have been signed regardless.
What is wrong with Haderade?
Pitch Mix
65.3% Sinker
34.0% Slider
0.7% Changeup
This isn't all that different from his past. Sinker usage is slightly down while slider usage is up, but its not out of the ranges within a given month from his last several seasons.
Pitch Velo
95.6 Sinker
90.3 Changeup
87.4 Slider
Fastball velo is down from the last few seasons, but faster / about the same as it was his first 4 seasons. I don't think this is the issue being 0.5 MPH down from last year. Something that more so caught my eye was the slider velo. Its up. For most of his career, the slider and fastball have been 11-14 MPH different. This year, it is only 8. I think generally the data shows 10-12 is ideal. But it also shows the more velo the better.
Pitch Shape
The sinker has more spin and even less vertical drop with slightly less velocity. It's not a giant change, but this should be a good thing. The vertical movement is almost identical to last year. No issue here.
The slider has a bit more change to it. More velo, less drop, and less break. Not giant changes, but different for sure.
Batted Balls
Exit velo is up (both sinker & slider), but the profile is very different. He's getting more balls on the ground than ever before. GB% is 57.9%. His previous high was 37.2%. Usually, that is a good thing because it means few line drives and flyballs.
Some good
Barrel% is slightly up from last year but still very good at 5.3% and down from career average (8.9%).
Launch Angle is was down from 20.5 to 4.6 (pretty much has to be the case with all those ground balls)
Even Sweet Spot % is way down at 21.1%.
You'd think these changes would equal great results, but there are negatives too.
The bad
Hard Hit% is up from 28.3% last year and 32.9% for his career to 47.4%. That has to change.
Evit Velo jumped from 87.0 last year to 90.5.
I am no pitching coach and only pretend to be a baseball analyst on Texags. IDK what the answer is. The sample size is only 19 balls put in play. Maybe its all an adjustment period still with a new team, a new set of coaches, etc. At least nothing stood out as a major problem like a crazy velo drop or his ball isn't moving anymore.
Pitch Mix
65.3% Sinker
34.0% Slider
0.7% Changeup
This isn't all that different from his past. Sinker usage is slightly down while slider usage is up, but its not out of the ranges within a given month from his last several seasons.
Pitch Velo
95.6 Sinker
90.3 Changeup
87.4 Slider
Fastball velo is down from the last few seasons, but faster / about the same as it was his first 4 seasons. I don't think this is the issue being 0.5 MPH down from last year. Something that more so caught my eye was the slider velo. Its up. For most of his career, the slider and fastball have been 11-14 MPH different. This year, it is only 8. I think generally the data shows 10-12 is ideal. But it also shows the more velo the better.
Pitch Shape
The sinker has more spin and even less vertical drop with slightly less velocity. It's not a giant change, but this should be a good thing. The vertical movement is almost identical to last year. No issue here.
The slider has a bit more change to it. More velo, less drop, and less break. Not giant changes, but different for sure.
Batted Balls
Exit velo is up (both sinker & slider), but the profile is very different. He's getting more balls on the ground than ever before. GB% is 57.9%. His previous high was 37.2%. Usually, that is a good thing because it means few line drives and flyballs.
Some good
Barrel% is slightly up from last year but still very good at 5.3% and down from career average (8.9%).
Launch Angle is was down from 20.5 to 4.6 (pretty much has to be the case with all those ground balls)
Even Sweet Spot % is way down at 21.1%.
You'd think these changes would equal great results, but there are negatives too.
The bad
Hard Hit% is up from 28.3% last year and 32.9% for his career to 47.4%. That has to change.
Evit Velo jumped from 87.0 last year to 90.5.
I am no pitching coach and only pretend to be a baseball analyst on Texags. IDK what the answer is. The sample size is only 19 balls put in play. Maybe its all an adjustment period still with a new team, a new set of coaches, etc. At least nothing stood out as a major problem like a crazy velo drop or his ball isn't moving anymore.
if it makes you guys feel better our pythagorean expected record is 7-11
Abreu looks much worse in hindsight. I don't think many fans at the time thought it was a terrible signing. Most thought he'd be an above average hitter for the first year or two then probably bad year 3. From a GM perspective, the question is if Click could have gotten him for two years, maybe with a vesting option. How much better off would we be if that had been the case?
Montero is the one everyone knew was idiotic. Hader is more of a philosophical question. Do you want that much tied up on one reliever? Teams that have done that are the likes of the Mets and Angels, not exactly great company.
Montero is the one everyone knew was idiotic. Hader is more of a philosophical question. Do you want that much tied up on one reliever? Teams that have done that are the likes of the Mets and Angels, not exactly great company.
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