Deluxe said:

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What's the latest pulse on who gets bumped from the rotation when JV gets back? Or do we go 6 man?

I didn't realize that Hunter hasn't gotten through 6 innings since early August 2023. If it's between Hunter and France, I might lean toward keeping France in the rotation as of rn but I don't feel strongly about it.

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I feel strongly about keeping Hunter. France has done nothing to deserve to be bumped. He's been solid last year and this year. But Hunter has a higher ceiling. We need to develop him into a cornerstone of the rotation for '24-'28.

Josh Hader, who recorded his first Astros save Sunday night, said afterward he feels his pitch execution is a bit off and described what might be causing it: https://t.co/XbIrpkD0LJ

— Matt Kawahara (@matthewkawahara) April 8, 2024

EastCoastAgNc said:

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Josh Hader, who recorded his first Astros save Sunday night, said afterward he feels his pitch execution is a bit off and described what might be causing it: https://t.co/XbIrpkD0LJ

— Matt Kawahara (@matthewkawahara) April 8, 2024

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To me its location. His stuff is just getting too much of the plate with 2 strikes or it's too far off to swing at

Farmer1906 said:

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Deluxe said:

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What's the latest pulse on who gets bumped from the rotation when JV gets back? Or do we go 6 man?

I didn't realize that Hunter hasn't gotten through 6 innings since early August 2023. If it's between Hunter and France, I might lean toward keeping France in the rotation as of rn but I don't feel strongly about it.

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I feel strongly about keeping Hunter. France has done nothing to deserve to be bumped. He's been solid last year and this year. But Hunter has a higher ceiling. We need to develop him into a cornerstone of the rotation for '24-'28.

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Fair. It's an interesting paradigm between the two. One has the premium stuff, accomplished everything there was to accomplish in the minors and was one of our highest rated pitching prospects of the last decade. The other has lesser stuff, came up with very little fanfare and was mostly thought of as a temporary injury plug-in.

But at some point, we have to acknowledge that France has been the more effective big league pitcher in a sample size that's getting large enough to be deterministic.

That doesn't necessarily mean we should lean France over Brown in this circumstance. Like you said, Brown still has higher upside and ability to be a rotation anchor in future seasons. In the long run, it might be better to invest that last rotation spot in him than France. If he puts it together, we'll be glad we stuck with him.

His first two starts this year were rough, but they were also two of his toughest matchups in the AL. Hopefully he can start righting the ship in KC.

Overall, a good problem to have. And it's a problem that gets even gooder when Urquidy returns.

Production > potential

Especially for this year.

It was also nice and comforting to see Hader reach back up into the 97-98 range last night as opposed tot he 94-95 we've been seeing.

Looking back he probably should've gotten more work in ST and it's just a matter of getting ramped up.

Who do you prefer?

tjack16 said:

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I prefer the one who goes deeper in the game, lower WHIP, and has a lower ERA. Last year and this year that's been France.

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Cool. So which one is France?

This day is already a win. Clouds parted about 2 minutes before totality and and we had a totally clear show.

Just amazing

tjack16 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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I prefer the one who goes deeper in the game, lower WHIP, and has a lower ERA. Last year and this year that's been France.

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Cool. So which one is France?

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I couldn't tell from those advanced and expected stats. But his overall production from a giving up runs and going deeper in games stats… France was better. Those are the stats I look at with pitchers because expected results don't equal actual results.

Upside = Brown
Actual results = France

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I don't think batting average against is very advanced.

What about results moving forward?

texasaggie2015 said:

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Goodness gracious. Hader and Pressly will be just fine. Everything will be just fine. Bookmark this post if you have to, this is a very good team and the cream will rise to the top.

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I'll go out on a limb and say Abreu will most definitely not be just fine. I think the rest will perform as expected on balance and still track towards a win total in the lower 90's. First base, however, will remain a black hole until another player is added, or unless Dubon can shift over to offer a better contact rate.

Marvin said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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Goodness gracious. Hader and Pressly will be just fine. Everything will be just fine. Bookmark this post if you have to, this is a very good team and the cream will rise to the top.

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I'll go out on a limb and say Abreu will most definitely not be just fine. I think the rest will perform as expected on balance and still track towards a win total in the lower 90's. First base, however, will remain a black hole until another player is added, or unless Dubon can shift over to offer a better contact rate.

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This is where I'm at. I have lost complete faith that Abreu will turn it around. Everyone else I'll buy into them eventually performing to expected standards. I really wish Espada would consider putting Dubon at 1B until we can figure out a better solution and basically "wait out" Breggy and his painfully slow start. Having Breggy and Abreu as black holes is killing this offense.

Umm, guys….

BREAKING: The #Astros are calling up RHP Blair Henley, who will start tonight in place of LHP Framber Valdez, multiple sources tell KPRC 2.

Henley, a 2019 7th round pick out of Texas, will make his major league debut. pic.twitter.com/WW36hhl0MB

— Ari Alexander (@AriA1exander) April 8, 2024

Huh????

Who and why exactly??

Wut

Deluxe said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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I prefer the one who goes deeper in the game, lower WHIP, and has a lower ERA. Last year and this year that's been France.

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Cool. So which one is France?

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If you post the same stats but just show 2023 all star break to today, I bet it's easier to tell which one is France.

I'm obviously moving the goalpost by referring to a large sample size in my last post and now proposing to constrain it. The recency bias that favors France is a factor in my mind, no doubt.

I don't have much interest in going to the mat on this debate and can see a case for either guy. Ideally we wouldn't have to bump either (yet).

Part of my slight inclination toward France is that I think Brown could be a really useful bullpen weapon. Tick that cutter up to 95 and the 4 seam up to 98 for an inning for two. That could be nasty. We can worry about the 2026-28 rotation when we get there.

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How about Mid Aug to the end of the season? (each players last 33ish innings)

8.35 ERA
6.10 FIP

vs

7.94 ERA
6.68 FIP

They both were pretty terrible down the stretch.

I don't think anyone would argue that Brown has outpitched France over the last 12 months. But I think there is a fair argument that Brown will outpitch France in the next 12 months. Batted balls data, K-BB ratios, Stuff+. etc are much better predictors than Who had the best ERA last season.

Framber hurt? Uh oh

Now remove France's outlier game against BOS

Deluxe said:

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Now remove France's outlier game against BOS

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Does that one not count?

Ugh ... Cannot afford for Framber to go down to injury right now

spadilly said:

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Umm, guys….

BREAKING: The #Astros are calling up RHP Blair Henley, who will start tonight in place of LHP Framber Valdez, multiple sources tell KPRC 2.

Henley, a 2019 7th round pick out of Texas, will make his major league debut. pic.twitter.com/WW36hhl0MB

— Ari Alexander (@AriA1exander) April 8, 2024

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Uhh wtf... That's not good

Could have pitched too recently

So is it Houston's turn now with a big pitching injury? That would be so fitting.

All I do is Nguyen said:

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Is Spaghetti not ready? WTF is this guy???

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He would be on 3 days rest ... ugh

Not like this. Not like this

This is all so strange since I'd think we would've heard some whisperings about an injury.

Family emergency or something weird like that?