MrCoachEricTaylor said:

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I really wish some of us would slow it down with Mahle and deGrom, I honestly think anything outside of maybe an inning of help from each out of the BP is about what we can expect when they come back. And don't get me wrong I think that would be better than our BP last year, but we need to have pretty dang low expectations when they come back until next season.

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There is growing support that limiting a SP coming back from TJ has not impact on his recovery. It is still controversial. I've always seen limits on expectations, but recent years have seen the belief that normal strength rebuild without concern for the TJ surgery is growing. Or exists.

Having said that... as mentioned... if you tell me deGrom does an Aaron Rogers... or he is even better than he was... I'd believe either.

DallasAg 94 said:

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hawk1689 said:

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AgBQ-00 said:

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I would not be a fan of parting with Duran. His ability to fill in when we have IF on the IL is invaluable. Pitching or any other prospects are just that...prospects. We held on to Profar for so long because he was can't miss and he turned out to be sorta meh. But proven quality utility players are too valuable to a team looking to make another run.

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They aren't more valuable than a top of the rotation starting pitcher. That is the most valuable asset in baseball.

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I don't think you need a ToTR SP to get TO the Playoffs.

We certainly saw what having 2 Elite SPs did for us in the '23 Playoffs.

The question we don't know is... would Eovaldi, Scherzer, deGrom + what else we have, be healthy? Will it be enough?

Nothing assures us Cease will be healthy all season or for the Playoffs.

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While all true, I wouldn't count on an improbable playoff run relying on just 2 starting pitchers again.

Cease's pitching history:
2023: 33 starts
2022: 32 starts
2021: 32 starts
2020 (60 game season): 12 starts

Also according to ZIPS value, hes projected as a top 15 pitcher in 2024.

CowtownAg06 said:

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Also, the Jose Barraro claim makes more sense if Duran is gone.

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They've been moving him around in the OF in ST. I think they'll try to stash him by moving him down to see what we really have.

Tksymm7 said:

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But how good of an every day SS is he? He's an okay fielder/thrower of the baseball, and he's a solid overall hitter, but he also swings and misses a metric ton and doesn't posses crazy pop. So how good is he? Josh smith can pick it better than him in the infield and we've got better true options as a hitter. I don't deny that he's valuable as an insurance policy, but that's a poor reason to hold onto a guy if you can get someone to really help the team more often.

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Last year they were talking about Duran in such cases.

As an every day player, his offense is significantly better than when he plays more Util. It was why I posted his 1H (70G) vs 2H. When he filled in while Seager was out, he was phenomenal.

I would be more willing to trade Josh Smith than Duran. I think Duran is a better SS. Smith likely a better 3B. Offensively... not even close.

I think Duran likely gets traded at some point, unless Seager becomes a full DH.

For me, it comes down to - I think Duran can net us a better return than including him with others for Cease. I think we can get Cease without including Duran.

They clearly want a position player and probably 2 SPs from some level.

Would Josh Smith/Foscue/Taveras + Bradford + Winn/White/Other

Bradford and Taveras would be two MLB players. They don't need a CF, but Taveras could fill any of the 3.

With Ballpark in Arlington bleachers, two sets of stadium chairs, and Kyle Field grass I'm not sure my house can take anymore stadium castoffs.

fc2112 said:

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The technology on this turf is maturing really quickly. Not surprising at all they want to upgrade.

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That's what Championship teams do, I guess.

gigem1223 said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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hawk1689 said:

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AgBQ-00 said:

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I would not be a fan of parting with Duran. His ability to fill in when we have IF on the IL is invaluable. Pitching or any other prospects are just that...prospects. We held on to Profar for so long because he was can't miss and he turned out to be sorta meh. But proven quality utility players are too valuable to a team looking to make another run.

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They aren't more valuable than a top of the rotation starting pitcher. That is the most valuable asset in baseball.

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I don't think you need a ToTR SP to get TO the Playoffs.

We certainly saw what having 2 Elite SPs did for us in the '23 Playoffs.

The question we don't know is... would Eovaldi, Scherzer, deGrom + what else we have, be healthy? Will it be enough?

Nothing assures us Cease will be healthy all season or for the Playoffs.

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While all true, I wouldn't count on an improbable playoff run relying on just 2 starting pitchers again.

Cease's pitching history:
2023: 33 starts
2022: 32 starts
2021: 32 starts
2020 (60 game season): 12 starts

Also according to ZIPS value, hes projected as a top 15 pitcher in 2024.

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I agree and would make the case that 2 SPs likely is not a formula for 2024. I think I may have posted about that. Tampa and LAD had a brash of rotation problems that sank them.

I'm sure Cease is likely a Top5... Top10 SP. I posted above that I think his 2024 performance could have been negatively impacted by all the rumors and distractions. I think his ST numbers are more aligned with his 2022 season and likely more predictive of his 2024 season. Sub 3... that is what I think we'd (or somebody) be getting. I don't diminish the impact.

Having said that... he could also be primed for injury having started so many games.

Mr Gigem said:

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We've had so many events during the offseason that there hasn't been anytime until right now to change it. It's my understanding that it is normally a three week process, but they are working overnight to compress the time needed.

Cue the "we rushed the turf so now it's going to cause problems" crowd

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Oh yeah... I forgot this isn't a baseball field it is a multi-use stadium.

Can't believe they are rushing the installation for something so critical.

BTW... are they selling squares?! Maybe you let me know when they set it out for Bulky Trash pickup and I can slice off a piece.

In all seriousness... for the right price, I'd buy a sliver.

Proposition Joe said:

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With Ballpark in Arlington bleachers, two sets of stadium chairs, and Kyle Field grass I'm not sure my house can take anymore stadium castoffs.

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Well well well... Look who remembered there was an MLB Forum. Glad you remembered us.

Funny enough, last week I was genuinely thinking, "Prop Joe should be joining us soon."

Just in time to bring reality to our Fantasy GM talk.

I'm thinking the turf would make a great putting green.

DallasAg 94 said:

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MrCoachEricTaylor said:

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I really wish some of us would slow it down with Mahle and deGrom, I honestly think anything outside of maybe an inning of help from each out of the BP is about what we can expect when they come back. And don't get me wrong I think that would be better than our BP last year, but we need to have pretty dang low expectations when they come back until next season.

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There is growing support that limiting a SP coming back from TJ has not impact on his recovery. It is still controversial. I've always seen limits on expectations, but recent years have seen the belief that normal strength rebuild without concern for the TJ surgery is growing. Or exists.

Having said that... as mentioned... if you tell me deGrom does an Aaron Rogers... or he is even better than he was... I'd believe either.

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To me it's more handling deGrom with the utmost caution because he's so prone to arm issues. But also not over working them to get so-so results, kinda like the results we were getting from Hernandez last year.

As far as I know Mahle doesn't have the injury history deGrom has, but I haven't looked into it.

I doubt it. It will be repurposed elsewhere by the company that installed it

gigem1223 said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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Cease for Duran, porter, and leiter is way too high.

Should be something like wendzel, white, and a lower tier prospect.

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You don't get a controllable 28 year old TORP for nothing. Why on God's green earth would the white Sox do that? Some of you guys value middling prospects too much.

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Cease is no Gerritt Cole or Verlander and it would need to be the Verlander that the Astros acquired initially. Not the one now.

Otherwise that price is too steep because Duran could possibility be an all star, porter could develop into a TORP, and Leiter could be a #2 or mid rotation guy.

Granted these prospects could not develop into those things, but you have to factor in potential.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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gigem1223 said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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Cease for Duran, porter, and leiter is way too high.

Should be something like wendzel, white, and a lower tier prospect.

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You don't get a controllable 28 year old TORP for nothing. Why on God's green earth would the white Sox do that? Some of you guys value middling prospects too much.

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Cease is no Gerritt Cole or Verlander and it would need to be the Verlander that the Astros acquired initially. Not the one now.

Otherwise that price is too steep because Duran could possibility be an all star, porter could develop into a TORP, and Leiter could be a #2 or mid rotation guy.

Granted these prospects could not develop into those things, but you have to factor in potential.

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No one is saying Cease is a first ballot HOFer. The package for either Verlander or Cole at 28 would require Langford or Carter included in the deal. Duran, Porter, Leiter are all unproven potential. Cease is a proven innings eater, that has a high probability of becoming a yearly CY young candidate.

This team has lineup depth that can sustain success the next several years. Combine that with the several SP question marks and this orgs inability to develop their own, i wouldn't think twice about it.

DMN is chiming in now.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned - Cease could be our route to getting under the CBT. He is owed - $8 MM? Trading Heaney, even in June or July, could get us under.

fc2112 said:

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DMN is chiming in now.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned - Cease could be our route to getting under the CBT. He is owed - $8 MM? Trading Heaney, even in June or July, could get us under.

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That is a very valid point

My guess is, the Rangers laughed at the demands for Cease. Everyone knows the Yankees blew their wad on Soto and have some farm issues. They won't include Spencer Jones

So, enter San Diego. Suddenly the Padres are in the mix. I don't buy it.

I think Cease doesn't get traded. Probably went like this... the Yankees circled back. CWS said they wanted Jones. Yanks freeze up. Rangers make a call to see what the Yanks offered. CWS told Rangers they wanted Duran/Leiter/Porter. CY responded with, "Seems like more than the Yanks can offer." Maybe we want Lorenzen. CWS call up Preller to see if they have interest to drive up price.

Cease gets the OD Start for CWS. CWS has a new entry level expectation for the trade deadline.

fc2112 said:

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DMN is chiming in now.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned - Cease could be our route to getting under the CBT. He is owed - $8 MM? Trading Heaney, even in June or July, could get us under.

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I've mentioned it multiple times.

I've mentioned Heaney getting trade would save $13M. Cease is owed $8M and would lower our CBT.

I mentioned trading Heaney to NYY and using what we get from NYY and add a little extra for Cease.

Not just the difference in what they are owed, but we can even play a game of hide the money. We could offload CBT from NYY by paying some of Heaney money and then pass that on to CWS and money they pay for Cease and sweeten the deal in terms of prospects.

An additional angle is that if we get Cease and let him walk after '25, we'd have a QO out to him and he'd decline and we'd get a Comp-A pick likely between the 1st and 2nd Rd.

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https://texags.com/forums/53/topics/3415594/replies/67137828

Quote:

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If Heaney is traded (to the NYY), whatever we get for him (It would be a $4M +/-) reduction in payroll from Heaney to Cease in '24. Maybe we eat some of Heaney's money for NYY to reduce CBT impact and get better prospects.

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ETA: I may have misinterpreted CBT. I was under the impression if one team carried the payroll, they could also offset the CBT by doing so. That may not be the case. In the example of Sale and Atlanta, the CBT was distributed to both teams. I was thinking if Texas paid say, $4M of the $13M Heaney is owed and CWS picked up some of Cease, we'd shift CBT to CWS. That may not be possible.

gigem1223 said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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gigem1223 said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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Cease for Duran, porter, and leiter is way too high.

Should be something like wendzel, white, and a lower tier prospect.

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You don't get a controllable 28 year old TORP for nothing. Why on God's green earth would the white Sox do that? Some of you guys value middling prospects too much.

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Cease is no Gerritt Cole or Verlander and it would need to be the Verlander that the Astros acquired initially. Not the one now.

Otherwise that price is too steep because Duran could possibility be an all star, porter could develop into a TORP, and Leiter could be a #2 or mid rotation guy.

Granted these prospects could not develop into those things, but you have to factor in potential.

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No one is saying Cease is a first ballot HOFer. The package for either Verlander or Cole at 28 would require Langford or Carter included in the deal. Duran, Porter, Leiter are all unproven potential. Cease is a proven innings eater, that has a high probability of becoming a yearly CY young candidate.

This team has lineup depth that can sustain success the next several years. Combine that with the several SP question marks and this orgs inability to develop their own, i wouldn't think twice about it.

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Quote:

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The Tigers famously sent Verlander to Houston just before midnight of the waiver deadline on Aug. 31, 2017. They received Jake Rogers, Franklin Perez, and Daz Cameron in return, and while Rogers is a decent MLB catcher, the trade has obviously turned out to be disastrous for Detroit.

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Then again the tigers did pass on Langford so maybe they're just dumb

Zack Greinke

Quote:

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The Astros landed the future Hall of Famer in a deadline deal that cost three of their top five prospects (Corbin Martin, Seth Beer and Bukauskas), plus Josh Rojas. Ironically, Rojas, the last piece added to the deal and the lone member of the deal that wasn't a top-five Astros' prospect, is the only one that has contributed to Arizona.
Martin, Beer and Bukauskas have combined for -2.4 WAR in their time in Arizona.
The Astros got Greinke for 2019 and two additional years of team control. Over his three seasons in Houston, Greinke went 22-10 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He was especially dominant in 2019, finishing 8-1 after the deal with a 3.02 ERA.

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Duran has already played at the mlb level and probably should've received all star consideration for his first half of the season last year.

I just think including him is an overpay unless it's for something better than cease.

Yes, didn't mean to suggest you hadn't thought of that. I just hadn't seen it mentioned recently.

The Rangers must have a while office of capologists working for them.

The Yankees are expected to be without AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole for "at least" the next month or two. pic.twitter.com/7oatz87AXs

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) March 13, 2024

Agreed.

It smells more like, trying to diminish the panic and urgency of the Yankees than it does a medical decision.

"1 to 2 months" gets them past Opening Day. With a 15+/- month recovery a short delay keeps him in the '25 playoffs possibility.

If they can pretend he is an option in '24 that will get them past OD. It takes pressure off having to replace him with Cease before OD. It mutes fans discontent about the rotation (at least for a couple weeks).

Once the season starts the noise will subside.

I think it is more about fan management than medical.

DallasAg 94 said:

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I think it is more about fan management than medical.

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Indeed. Their fanbase is ecstatic it's "not so bad".

This is good for us. We can tell CWS that Duran is on the table now but not in July.

Chop, chop ChiSox

We won the World Freaking Series.

So, I kinda feel sometimes like it is all House Money, now. CY could offer Seager, Semien, Langford, and Carter for Gerrit Cole straight up right now, I'd expect the Rangers would have won that trade, in my mind.

CY+Bochy have a very long leash, in my mind. About a 3-4 game losing streak.

Only the Rangers know what Leiter is worth to the Rangers and the future.
Only the Rangers know what Duran is worth to the Rangers and the future.
Only the Rangers know what Seager's prognosis is to start 2024.

If Seager is a safe-bet as of today and we need 2-3 weeks of filler. If Carter and Langford are we we fantasize they are... and we get over 115+ GS of:
Semien
Seager-L
Langford
Garcia
Carter-L
Jung
Lowe-L

and rollout:
Eovaldi
Cease
Dunning
Heaney/Gray/Bradford
+ deGrom/Scherzer/Mahle

I mean... I'm not saying hoist the 2nd banner, but that would be absolutely filthy.

fc2112 said:

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I disagree. I'd trade Duran for Cease straight up. But CWS will want more.

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Oh no I wasn't saying no to a 1 for 1. I was just explaining to gigem why the Duran / porter / leiter is way too much. I'd do a Duran for Cease swap. 1 for 1 is good because Duran has 5 years of control left. He should be seen as a very valuable trade chip.

DallasAg 94 said:

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We won the World Freaking Series.

So, I kinda feel sometimes like it is all House Money, now. CY could offer Seager, Semien, Langford, and Carter for Gerrit Cole straight up right now, I'd expect the Rangers would have won that trade, in my mind.

CY+Bochy have a very long leash, in my mind. About a 3-4 game losing streak.

Only the Rangers know what Leiter is worth to the Rangers and the future.
Only the Rangers know what Duran is worth to the Rangers and the future.
Only the Rangers know what Seager's prognosis is to start 2024.

If Seager is a safe-bet as of today and we need 2-3 weeks of filler. If Carter and Langford are we we fantasize they are... and we get over 115+ GS of:
Semien
Seager-L
Langford
Garcia
Carter-L
Jung
Lowe-L

and rollout:
Eovaldi
Cease
Dunning
Heaney/Gray/Bradford
+ deGrom/Scherzer/Mahle

I mean... I'm not saying hoist the 2nd banner, but that would be absolutely filthy.

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Winning back to back would be so unbelievably amazing. Can't believe nobody has done it in over 20 years.