Fun facts. This was our SP pre-ASB:

JdeGrom: 6GS, 2.67 ERA, 30.1 IP, 45 SO, 0.76 WHIP
Eovaldi: 18GS, 2.83 ERA,117.2 IP,109 SO, 1.02 WHIP
Dunning: 12GS, 2.84 ERA, 92.0 IP, 59 SO, 1.13 WHIP (20G)
Jo Gray: 16GS, 3.29 ERA, 93.0 IP, 75 SO, 1.14 WHIP
Bradford: 5GS, 4.39 ERA, 26.2 IP, 25 SO, 1.16 WHIP (7G)
AHeaney: 17GS, 4.71 ERA, 86.0 IP, 93 SO, 1.34 WHIP
M Perez: 17GS, 4.81 ERA, 91.2 IP, 60 SO, 1.48 WHIP

We'll also have Max in Spring Training.

I'd say we have a lot of #3-#5's. Eovaldi really the only front end starter and he has shown to be somewhat injury prone.

Max would still be considered a front end guy, but he's going to be 40 next season and his IP totals have gone from 220->172->67->179->145->152.

That's a lot of questions surrounding the top end of your rotation.

That's not to say we're in bad shape -- we won with what amounted to a bunch of #3's-#5's this year.

But it's also important to remember we were 2 games away from missing the playoffs entirely this year.

All valid points.

Speaking of 3s-5s... I haven't heard anything about Martin Perez this off-season.

I think the 2023 SP was solid with depth... and necessary.

2024 with Bradford and OWhite... really need to see if they are viable options moving forward.

I love your long Rangers essays, but come on man, the only way we want guys like Smith, Jankowski, Miller etc. on the roster is as the 26th man and emergency option. You don't gain any flexibility by having them as DH options that would outweigh having a 30 homer 100 RBI guy in that slot.

Garver was fine last year, but that production should be the floor you expect from the DH spot.

I've posted this before, and I'll do it again, the depth of your lineup is what makes a good offense. If you can force other teams to stress for 7 or 8 batters, you're going to win a lot of games. If you can make them feel panicky for 7 or 8 batters you have a chance to be an all time great offense. That's why I want Ohtani.

Carter
Semien
Seager
Ohtani
Garcia
Heim
Jung
Lowe
Taveras

That gives you a run of 6 all stars from 2-7 in your lineup, with the 8 spot filled by a guy with a silver slugger just 2 years ago. We hope Carter remains the real deal, and eventually you get Langford to replace Taveras. That lineup possibly goes 9 deep.

AggieEP said:

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I love your long Rangers essays, but come on man, the only way we want guys like Smith, Jankowski, Miller etc. on the roster is as the 26th man and emergency option. You don't gain any flexibility by having them as DH options that would outweigh having a 30 homer 100 RBI guy in that slot.

Garver was fine last year, but that production should be the floor you expect from the DH spot.

I've posted this before, and I'll do it again, the depth of your lineup is what makes a good offense. If you can force other teams to stress for 7 or 8 batters, you're going to win a lot of games. If you can make them feel panicky for 7 or 8 batters you have a chance to be an all time great offense. That's why I want Ohtani.

Carter
Semien
Seager
Ohtani
Garcia
Heim
Jung
Lowe
Taveras

That gives you a run of 6 all stars from 2-7 in your lineup, with the 8 spot filled by a guy with a silver slugger just 2 years ago. We hope Carter remains the real deal, and eventually you get Langford to replace Taveras. That lineup possibly goes 9 deep.

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Don't get me wrong... adding Ohtani would likely generate 1,000 Runs for the 1st time since 1999 (Cleveland). I've posted that and provide somewhere the other teams ('30s Yankees) who have scored more than 1,000 Runs. It would be phenom if we pulled that off. Keep in mind, he is s pure DH play. That means if you need to give Seager some time off, Seager goes to the bench. If you want to work Langford, you'll pulling someone.

We all know I'm not talking about Miller. Duran gives you a MIF'er and Smith gives you a 1B/3B option. 26th is cool.

What are the chances in your opinion, that Jung and Seager are going to have an IL stint? 80%?

This was what I posted after the season:

Quote:

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One last post...

For those interested in what a 2024 lineup might look like with Ohtani?!

1. Carter (L-LF): .306, 5 HR, 3 SB, 23 G
2. Semien (R-2B): .276, 29 HR, 14 SB, 162 G - AS, GG Finalist
3. Seager (L-SS): .327, 33 HR, 2 SB, 119 G - AS, GG Finalist
4. Adolis (R-RF): .245, 39 HR, 9 SB, 148 G - AS, Gold Glove
5. Ohtani (L-DH): .304, 44 HR, 20 SB, 135 G - AS, 2023 MVP
6. Jung (R-3B): .266, 23 HR, 1 SB, 122 G - AS
7. Heim (S-C): .258, 18 HR, 2 SB, 141 G - AS, Gold Glove
8. Lowe (L-1B): .262, 17 HR, 1 SB, 161 G - Gold Glove
9. Taveras (S-CF): .266, 14 HR, 14 SB, 143 G

Your Top 5 in the lineup would all have 6 letters in their last name. Chew on that.

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As most commented, Ohtani likely would be 3rd not 5th, but look at the production you're juggling.

Looks like the Rangers are shifting focus off the Ohtani sweepstakes. I'm hoping he lands on the Cubs.

Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays and Angels are among the teams still bidding on Shohei Ohtani while the Mets, Rangers and Red Sox have turned their attention to other players, per @JeffPassan pic.twitter.com/yHOYR8qRI3

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) December 1, 2023

My guess he ends up in LA with the Dodgers

From Jeff Wilson -

"Having listened to Young on Thursday, though, I'm not sure the Rangers ever had plans to spend exorbitantly. The luxury-tax threshold of $237 million is a real thing and perhaps a bigger deal in the short term than the TV rights fee. The Rangers' payroll is already above $200 million.

The Rangers need to spend a chunk on a starting pitcher, but they've never really spent on bullpen help or bench pieces. They might find a reliever in the same mold as Will Smith, who signed on the cheap last spring, and a hitter in the same mold as Robbie Grossman, who also signed on the cheap last spring.

When Young says "shore up the roster," those are the kind of players the Rangers might be considering. They have a really solid returning group, minus Garver. The farm system needs to help. Huff can replace Garver, and Justin Foscue, Blaine Crim, Dustin Harris or Wyatt Langford can get at-bats at designated hitter."

The Rangers ain't signing Ohtani.

I wonder what's going on with the giants. Last offseason they offered Correa 350 million and 360 million to judge and this offseason they seem to be quiet.

Are we conceding Montgomery to another club?

If there was interest, I'd imagine it was a short term bridge deal. You get him to DH for a year and then he goes back on the market. But i wouldn't do even that much

rbtexan said:

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From Jeff Wilson -

"Having listened to Young on Thursday, though, I'm not sure the Rangers ever had plans to spend exorbitantly. The luxury-tax threshold of $237 million is a real thing and perhaps a bigger deal in the short term than the TV rights fee. The Rangers' payroll is already above $200 million.

The Rangers need to spend a chunk on a starting pitcher, but they've never really spent on bullpen help or bench pieces. They might find a reliever in the same mold as Will Smith, who signed on the cheap last spring, and a hitter in the same mold as Robbie Grossman, who also signed on the cheap last spring.

When Young says "shore up the roster," those are the kind of players the Rangers might be considering. They have a really solid returning group, minus Garver. The farm system needs to help. Huff can replace Garver, and Justin Foscue, Blaine Crim, Dustin Harris or Wyatt Langford can get at-bats at designated hitter."

The Rangers ain't signing Ohtani.

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Evan Grant had a tweet last night with a link to an article saying pretty much the same as above. I've been saying for a while it wouldn't really make sense to try to pay Ohtani, and this pretty much confirms it.

We might pay pretty big bucks to sign a SP (Monty) or a RP, but probably not both. We may need to package a few prospects or Duran possibly to help out as well rather than trying to sign free agents.

AgBQ-00 said:

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My guess he ends up in LA with the Dodgers

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This has been my guess all along as well.

rbtexan said:

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The fascination with the Rangers signing Ohtani was really kind of a NFL/NBA mentality...where one player can make a huge, huge difference. He was never a need, and honestly what needs we actually have he doesn't address. It was just a greedy "I want the best player in baseball on my team" mentality.

If having the best player on your team meant winning championships, the Rangers would won a few when ARod was here. Hell, for that matter, the Angels would've won a couple with Ohtani and Trout. I'm hoping we either sign a SP or preferably trade for one, get some bullpen help, and maybe one more bat.... although I think Langford may be here sooner rather than later, so I wouldn't even overspend or over commit on that.

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That is a very Art Moreno mentality..

Eh, you could make a case either way for Ohtani -- but all of it required him coming here on a reasonable deal and not us getting into a bidding war.

You can argue that adding a superstar to a team that you already know is WS-caliber has a higher probability of paying off than adding a superstar to a team "that is close".

But ultimately salary is finite, and you already have a lot of expensive pieces to this roster (Semien, Seager), but also a few expensive pieces that you don't know how much they'll contribute (Scherzer, deGrom).

I was good either way with Ohtani, just didn't want to be the highest bidder and would prefer he go to NL.

Proposition Joe said:

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Eh, you could make a case either way for Ohtani -- but all of it required him coming here on a reasonable deal and not us getting into a bidding war.

You can argue that adding a superstar to a team that you already know is WS-caliber has a higher probability of paying off than adding a superstar to a team "that is close".

But ultimately salary is finite, and you already have a lot of expensive pieces to this roster (Semien, Seager), but also a few expensive pieces that you don't know how much they'll contribute (Scherzer, deGrom).

I was good either way with Ohtani, just didn't want to be the highest bidder and would prefer he go to NL.

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I'm with Prop Joe on this. Would I like to have the best player (maybe if all time) on my roster? Sure. But not at the expense of the rest of the team. He would probably pay for himself and part of the luxury tax we would incur. However, if we don't have him, I want to see him in the NL.

bmac_aggie18 said:

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Jeff Wilson thinks we can replace Mitch Garver with Sam Huff?! Ewfff, glad he's not in the front office

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I think he's referring to his previous statement that the farm system needs to help. Huff is viewed as the player most likely to replace Garver. Not that he's there yet, but that's the succession plan.

Having THE best Offense EVAH would have been nice. But that is not to be.

Regarding Ohtani, himself. I mentioned before that he only pitches once-a-week, similar to Japan and that any team that took him would need to have a rotation willing to accommodate him. I mentioned that at the deadline and I think right after the season. That was something raised today in the articles. It isn't an issue in 2024, but if you really expect him to pitch (which he and his agent do) you need to consider that. That makes the rest of the team about him and IMO, may not make him a good fit in 2025 with the Rangers, where everyone bought into the Team aspect.

As for the teams that are still in the mix (apparently): Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Angels, and Jays.

Dodgers: They project $67M from the CBT Payroll in 2024. Like the Mets, they'll blow through that, but the Dodgers are not a contender with the roster they have. They need almost a complete rotation. They have more holes to fill than I think they can fill.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/dodgers-showing-interest-in-seth-lugo.html

Quote:

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The Dodgers have less certainty in their rotation than they've had at any point in the past few seasons. Of the four pitchers who topped 100 innings, only Bobby Miller is going to open next year in the rotation.

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They have a cast of 4 add-ons to Miller who are rookies or SPs coming back from TJ... or Kershaw mid-season.

Cubs. Chicago. The cultural melting pot. They have Suzuki. I'll be honest. Without even talking baseball, I've never liked Chicago. Most of the times I've been there for work, it was a beat down. It is like the worst of NYC and the worst of LA mashed together for a place I'd rather not go. They have $51M in CBT Payroll space, but the Ricketts are wealthy and if they want a player I'm sure they can afford him.

Giants. I know they've been often connected. I know there is China Town, but don't follow them close enough to say this is real or a possibility... good or bad. Just unknown to me.

Angels: I would be shocked if he goes to the Halos. What a disaster. They have $73M in CBT Payroll space in 2024. Will they spend all of it on Ohtani?

Jays: This is interesting. I saw some stuff weeks ago and the "Japanese" experience the Jays had in hosting him. I didn't know if it was true, because all of that is supposed to be quiet, but the Kikuchi from Japan was said to be an influence. They have $18M in CBT Payroll space. Hearing the Jays shopping Bo and Guerrero Jr add smoke to the possibility, but it defeats the point of adding Ohtani if you take one or both of them away.




Summary. Like everyone else, Ohtani likely goes to the LAD. If he goes there, it is a yr3-yr12 decision because I really don't think they'll have the pieces to win a WS in 2024 unless they pull a NYMets and spend $100M in FA. They have the minor league players to make the trades... but that rotation needs some work.

All teams with a reasonable chance of competing in 2024 have exited the conversation and looking to build around what they need.

Here is to hoping Ohtani and Trout enjoy the SoCal attention of being Stars on under performing teams.

I wonder if the rangers are exploring patch uniform deals with the uncertainty with Bally in 24. Also Rosenthal made an interesting comment about Ohtani and the uniform patch deal. The team that doesn't already have a patch deal and gets Ohtani will get pretty nice offers from businesses.

Water Boy said:

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I wonder if the rangers are exploring patch uniform deals with the uncertainty with Bally in 24. Also Rosenthal made an interesting comment about Ohtani and the uniform patch deal. The team that doesn't already have a patch deal and gets Ohtani will get pretty nice offers from businesses.

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What is the story with those sponsor patches? Some teams have them, but most don't. You would think most teams would want the extra revenue stream if possible.

Might be a good way to offset some of the revenue shortfall from the Bally deal.

Don't really know much about it. Guess we don't want to mess with the look of the uniforms.

One sleeve will have the World Series champions patch I'm sure…do they drop the flag? I hope not.

Would love to see Gray moved to the pen, ala John Smoltz. Add a power lefty and the pen is set.

94chem said:

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Would love to see Gray moved to the pen, ala John Smoltz. Add a power lefty and the pen is set.

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He was effective late in the season when he came out of the pen, but long term he is going to want to be a starter for his earnings potential. Smoltz was late 30's when he went to the pen?

Anyway, it is good to have Gray, Dunning, and Heaney all on the staff who have the ability to be a starter or come out of the bullpen. The bullpen/spot starter may be Heaney's path moving forward though, as he has issues getting very deep into games as a starter.

from Jeff Wilson...

Quote:

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No one in baseball media has it harder than gaggle from Japan following Ohtani. They cover one player and have to produce content on him every day. The way Balelo and the Angels treated them was disrespectful, and they weren't remotely happy when "technical difficulties" prevented Ohtani from talking about winning the American League MVP on a conference call.

If the Rangers are out, at least the local media won't have to deal with a superstar player who hasn't spoken to the media since August and who last season spoke only after his pitching outings. He's not going the have any of those in 2024, so maybe he'll grace media with his presence after every fourth home run

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Quote:

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One theory floated by a Japanese writer is that Ohtani wants to be the player who gets his new team over the hump, the hero/mercenary who saves the day.

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I was never in favor of pursuing Ohtani, but this report makes me really glad we didn't. He sounds like another A-Rod.

94chem said:

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Would love to see Gray moved to the pen, ala John Smoltz. Add a power lefty and the pen is set.

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I think at $13M (age 32) in '24 and $13M (age 33) in '25, you'd get more out of trading him than you would moving him to the BP.

Consider:
Gray (31): 29GS, 4.12, 157.1 IP, 1.29 WHIP - $13M in '24, $13M in '25
Lynn (36): 32GS, 5.73, 183.2 IP, 1.39 WHIP - $10M in '24, $11M in '25
Gibson (35): 33GS, 4.73, 192 IP, 1.32 WHIP - $12M in '24, $12M in '25

From every thing I have read/seen on Ohtani and his preferred destination I find it odd that the dodgers are presumed to sign him. I hear he's a reserved guy and doesn't want a ton of attention. Seems like that would easily eliminate LA. Also hear money isn't the #1 factor for him. He also wants to play for a winner. LA wins but can't win in the playoffs. LA also needs high quality starting pitching. I don't think LA has the money to buy Ohtani and spend an additional 300 million on a few pitching pieces to win now unless they trade the farm for guys like Glasnow and Burns.

The Radio was talking about the fact that neither he nor his Reps were at the Winter Meetings (per Passan?) so the expectation that Ohtani signs this week is likely not reality.

I think mid-December has been tossed around as well as late December.

They talked about how his decision is holding 6-7 teams hostage (LAD, SFG, CHC, LAAA, Tor, Sea?, and a mystery team). And as a result of other Tier1 FAs waiting on the Ohtani move, it could cause a scramble.

Personally, the only reason I would think they are slow-rolling it is because they're trying to get the teams to panic on getting a deal done and end up overpaying.

I think we're all convinced the LAD are the likely landing spot. The Dodgers have a tremendous amount to do, to set their roster, which likely hinges on the Ohtani decision.

Rule V is Wednesday at 1pm Central.

Our 40 is at 35 (Hedges is finally off). 15 position players:
OF (3): Carter, Taveras, Garcia
IF (4): Jung, Seager, Semien, Lowe
C (1): Heim,

Left (4): DH, 4th OF, MIF, C

As it stands: Foscue (DH/Util), JP Martinez (OF), Duran (MIF), Huff (C/1B)
Others on 40: Harris, Ornelas, Smith

For P, we have 20.
SP (5): Eovalid, Scherzer, Dunning, Heaney, and Gray (deGrom will go to the 60 when season starts)
RP (3) : Sborz, Leclerc, Bradford

Left (5): LHRP, RHRP, RPX3

As it stands: Burke (L-26), Hernandez (26), Anderson (26), YRodriguez (25), Latz (L-27)
Others on 40: OWhite (23), Cole Winn (23), Church (22), Corniell (20), Kent (25), Kelly (L-23)

So, I see 9 positions that are up in the air and I've slotted who I think might fit there as of today.

I think we get 1-2 off Rule V on Wednesday, sign a C, and sign/trade for a RHRP. Hope we're done by Friday.