*****Official 2023-2024 Texas Rangers Off-season Thread*****

317,458 Views | 3663 Replies | Last: 5 mo ago by Grapesoda2525
Grapesoda2525
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Tksymm7 said:

Worst season by a player for every team since 2000. Just a fun offseason topic. Some truly heinous seasons on here lol.

I expected Michael kirkman or one of odor's seasons to be on here for the rangers.
fc2112
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I know a lot of people just wanna close their ears to all the financial talk and "just tell me when we sign Monty".

But this is where CY earns his pay. If we sign Monty, we could very well be straight up releasing great ball players in the summer of 2025 to hope we can get under the cap. Or trading guys for pennies on the dollar to eke under.

We are within shooting distance of being under the cap this season. If any of the young arms on the farm come through, and our Cy Young winners are healthy come July, Gray and Heaney and maybe even Eovaldi - could be goners if a serf is there who can pick it up from them.
rbtexan
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I know this is probably just semantics, but it bears mentioning.

There is no salary cap in baseball. You can have a payroll of eleventy billion if you want. What exists is the competitive balance tax (luxury tax) - 20% on the amount a team is over the threshold in the first year, increasing 10% the 2nd consecutive year, and jumping to 50% for 3 or more consecutive years over.

So while it sort of works like a salary cap, it isn't, because teams can exceed it if they choose to - unlike the NFL or NBA where you have to make cuts to get under the actual cap they operate under.
fc2112
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Owners wanted a cap during the last CBA. Players didn't (obviously).

They went with the CBT. A lot of teams just pay it (Mets), others flaunt it (Dodgers), but most try to live within it. If your farm system produces, it works.

In fact, it's working this year. Montgomery, Snell, Bellringer, Chapman - all still out there. Of the top 50 ranked free agents this year, 16 are still available.
Grapesoda2525
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fc2112 said:

I know a lot of people just wanna close their ears to all the financial talk and "just tell me when we sign Monty".

But this is where CY earns his pay. If we sign Monty, we could very well be straight up releasing great ball players in the summer of 2025 to hope we can get under the cap. Or trading guys for pennies on the dollar to eke under.

We are within shooting distance of being under the cap this season. If any of the young arms on the farm come through, and our Cy Young winners are healthy come July, Gray and Heaney and maybe even Eovaldi - could be goners if a serf is there who can pick it up from them.
It has been really frustrating. Monty was so vital to our success in the playoffs last year and he was the rare pitcher we had who could get the Astros out.
fc2112
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DallasAg 94
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You also have these (Surcharge and Draft impact):

Quote:

There's also a surcharge threshold for clubs that exceed the base threshold by $20 million or more.
$20 million to $40 million: 12 percent surcharge
$40 million to $60 million: 42.5 percent surcharge for first year; 45 percent for each consecutive year after that
$60 million or more: 60 percent surcharge

Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.



Having said that... if you were to sign Monty and decide to trade Heaney, even as an innings-eater, you're getting a quality return. His '23 Salary is $13M ($12.5M CBT to Rangers)

Heaney: 28GS, 4.15 ERA, 147.1 IP

Then, as you look at 2025, these players could be considered for a QO after 2024:
Quote:

Scherzer ($12.5M)
Heaney ($12.5M)
Leclerc ($6.25M)

The QO impact of a CBT payor moves from a 2nd to a 4th round pick.
Quote:

Compensation for losing players who reject their QO
If a team gives a qualifying offer to a player who then signs elsewhere, the club that lost the player is eligible for Draft pick compensation in the next year's MLB Draft.

Competitive Balance Tax payors: If the team that loses the player went over the CBT threshold, the compensation pick will be placed after the fourth round has been completed. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case.

If Bradford or another prospect SP proves worthy of a 2025 rotation, it makes Gray and/or Mahle tradeable. If Eovaldi doesn't reach is vesting, would he be a QO candidate, as well?!

If he makes it:
Eovaldi, Monty, Gray, Dunning, Bradford, Mahle, deGrom.

There are some prospects to be had in that scenario.

deGrom's $37M CBT impact is a killer for the next 4 years, unless he makes some pitches.
fc2112
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So let's be honest.

To those who want to sign Monty - we would also need to trade Gray and Eovaldi in order to sign Monty. Is he worth that?

You can't just add Monty to this roster. $25 MM in salary would need to go.
rbtexan
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fc2112 said:

So let's be honest.

To those who want to sign Monty - we would also need to trade Gray and Eovaldi in order to sign Monty. Is he worth that?

You can't just add Monty to this roster. $25 MM in salary would need to go.

Yes, you can. The Rangers would just have to be willing to exceed the luxury tax threshold. IMO they would consider doing that, but I would almost bet my house that Boras is trying to get more years on the deal than the Rangers (or other teams) are willing to commit, which is why he's still out there.

Not saying the Rangers are going to sign Montgomery, but if they did there is absolutely no "need" to get rid of Gray, Eovaldi, or anyone else really. It's.not.a.salary.cap.
Tksymm7
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AG
I think it's years as well, mixed with the fact that I truly believe they want to give opportunity to some of their home grown pitchers and give them a chance.
rbtexan
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In 2023, there were 8 teams over the CBT limit - including the Texas Rangers.

Those team had to pay the following amounts:

Quote:

Mets: $100.8M over
Padres: $39.7M
Yankees: $32.4M
Dodgers: $19.4M
Phillies: $6.98M
Blue Jays: $5.5M
Braves: $3.2M
Rangers: $1.8M
The threshold in '23 was $233M. It is up to $237M this season.
DannyDuberstein
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AG
They only have $145 mill of salary committed against the tax for 2025. Could take a temporary hit then get back under before it escalates
DallasAg 94
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rbtexan said:

In 2023, there were 8 teams over the CBT limit - including the Texas Rangers.

Those team had to pay the following amounts:

Quote:

Mets: $100.8M over
Padres: $39.7M
Yankees: $32.4M
Dodgers: $19.4M
Phillies: $6.98M
Blue Jays: $5.5M
Braves: $3.2M
Rangers: $1.8M
The threshold in '23 was $233M. It is up to $237M this season.

5 of the 12 playoff teams exceeded the CBT.

1 teams (Minn) got in by default.

2 teams made it as perennial doormats (Az and O's)

Miami and Az got in with 84 Ws.
fc2112
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By signing Monty long term, you are committing to being over the CBT long term if you keep Gray and Eovaldi.

You say it's easy to do, but then it's not your money.

BTW - gift from my wife today for my man cave. I've only had season tickets in two of these stadiums.



DallasAg 94
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fc2112 said:

So let's be honest.

To those who want to sign Monty - we would also need to trade Gray and Eovaldi in order to sign Monty. Is he worth that?

You can't just add Monty to this roster. $25 MM in salary would need to go.
It is part of why I collected and posted some numbers

CBT Overage: $6,861,667

2024 CBT impact
Eovaldi $17.0
Gray $14.0, 14.0
Heaney $12.5
Robertson $11.5
Mahle $11.0, $11.0


Mahle puts us over and we signed him knowing he was a 2ndH hopeful lottery ticket. But, his numbers have been modest career 4.30 ERA.

Trading Heaney ($12.5M) and not signing Mahle ($11M) would give us $23.5M towards a $25M+/- Monty.

Let's say we started the season as:
Eovaldi, Monty, Gray, Dunning, Bradford
- The return of Scherzer and/or deGrom affords you the ability to dump Gray, if necessary, or someone else.

As is... not signing Monty allows us the same fate of dropping below the CBT with the SP returns.
rbtexan
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If I'm not mistaken, Scherzer and Eovaldi come off the books after this season, which also will free up some space
DallasAg 94
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DannyDuberstein said:

They only have $145 mill of salary committed against the tax for 2025. Could take a temporary hit then get back under before it escalates
Be careful, there, though... Eovaldi and Robertson have options that could impact things.

Also, guys like Lowe, Heim, Taveras, et al, will likely add another $20M+

I think I posted Eovaldi, if vested, would likely be $20M. Robertson?

So, we're more likely sitting at $185M, but your point is valid.

If we could sign Monty to like a $13M deal for '24 and then after that... sign him to a contract with an ACV of say $30M for 4 years, it'd be 5yrs for $133M... the ACV would be the CBT for '25+, and we'd only get hit with $13M in '24. At that price, getting rid of Heaney and Mahle would get us close to being under. Not just in '24, but in '25.
DallasAg 94
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rbtexan said:

If I'm not mistaken, Scherzer and Eovaldi come off the books after this season, which also will free up some space
Because the NYM are paying most of Scherzer's salary, his CBT in '24 is like $12.5-13M.

Eovaldi has a $20M option in '25 which is met if he gets 156 +/- IP.
DallasAg 94
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This was a post I was drafting:

With 2024 set, looking to 2025, we take off the CBT payroll from 2024:
Scherzer ($12.5M)
Heaney ($12.5M)
Leclerc ($6.25M)
Yates ($4.5M)
Jankowsik ($1.7M)
= $37.45M

Options:
Eovaldi ($20M Vesting Option, $2M Buyout player option vests with 300 IP in 2023 and 2024. He got 144IP in 2023)
Robertson (He is listed as a $11.5M hit to CBT in 2024. His terms are: "He'll earn $5 million in 2024 with a $7 million mutual option for 2025 ($1.5 million buyout). There is also $1 million per year in deferred money from 2027-31."

If Leclerc has another solid season, I'd assume we'll resign him.

We need Bradford to solidify a rotation spot. Even as a #4 or #5... innings eater... I'd really like to see what he has in 2024.

As of now for 2025: Gray, Dunning, Bradford, Mahle, deGrom. Eovaldi's option.

The Mahle signing is still confusing to me. He is an $11M hit to CBT in '24 and '25. While cashflow he is favorable, it still leaves me shaking my head. Best case, he returns for the 2nd H of 2024, we win the WS and then trade him. He is a career 4.30 ERA SP. At 29, he has pitched more than 130 IP only once.

If we didn't sign Mahle ($11M CBT), we could have traded Heaney ($12.5M CBT) and signed Monty for $23.5M.

Just another reason I think Boras/Monty are looking for 5-6 yrs and CY isn't interested. Was the Mahle signing a declaration to Boras we're out on Monty?
fc2112
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A thought is - we sign Monty and go into 2024 being - $30 MM over the CBT? We play into July.

If July comes and Mahle, Scherzer and deGrom are all good to go, we start dumping salaries to the up and coming teams that need just that ONE more starting pitcher - clubs like we were last year.

You send Eovaldi to - Kansas City?

You send Gray to - the Brewers?

But as DallasAg so well put it - if Boras is pushing the Monty for 6 years deal, I bet Mr. Davis sits back and says "hell no". With what our farm system is, we are poised for sustained greatness. But not with another long term pitching weight hung around our neck.
Tksymm7
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AG
One thing about Monty is that he's already 31 going on 32 and sits 91-94, relying mainly on a sinker to get outs. If I were a betting man, I would put money on him not aging all that well. Would I want him on our team the next two years, absolutely, but after that I do wonder what he's going to look like.
fc2112
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One sure fire way to ensure mediocrity is to just say "we need to do everything we can to keep all these guys together since they won it all". Just ask Jerry Jones how that plays out.

bmac_aggie18
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AG
Tksymm7 said:

One thing about Monty is that he's already 31 going on 32 and sits 91-94, relying mainly on a sinker to get outs. If I were a betting man, I would put money on him not aging all that well. Would I want him on our team the next two years, absolutely, but after that I do wonder what he's going to look like.


Agreed. He's also a pretty beefy heavy set guy and those don't age very well at all. In all likelihood, the back half of a deal for him would probably not be very club friendly
AgsWin2011
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AG
This article seems to think we will sign Monty by Wednesday this week. I sure hope so.

https://www.si.com/mlb/rangers/news/jordan-montgomery-sign-texas-rangers-free-agent-contract-spring-training-prediction?fbclid=IwAR3BBbBtvfxV9Mjl0tQCGsAPi1rT8ZNEKg0cl5P51ylBhtNjU3WJ47oKj2s_aem_AcVwyprFhpDyTOwXPK3tHvXckNtd3mC_6_hUblVjHHiIYvucYhIUdvwBenBvACzi0Ms
DallasAg 94
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You don't have to keep everyone together, but you don't have to let everyone go every year, either. Just ask Jerry Jones how Zeke leaving worked out.

There are lots of patterns to view. The main one is to keep the important pieces when you need them and trade off the ones that have external value when you don't need them.
DannyDuberstein
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AG
I wouldn't go more than 4 years and $25 per. And it's not about trying to get the whole band back together. But I do think this team's great defense and his sinker are an excellent marriage and can continue to be for 3-4 more years. Salary will be coming off the books with this staff quickly, and teams have also shown how to jettison it if needed. Not worried about those options. It will mean you have good pitching to choose from and plenty of teams willing to give something for it
Flounder Dorfman
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AG
I think Zeke leaving worked out just fine. Lots of other examples I would use over him.

As for Montgomery, if we do re-sign him, I don't understand the signing of Mahle. Actually, not matter what happens with Montgomery, I don't understand the Mahle signing. The Rangers are paying a very large amount of money to three starting pitchers that won't pitch before the all-star break. I don't get it.
DannyDuberstein
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AG
Tyson Chandler is a better comparison. He was a linchpin add, they let him walk, and they immediately fell hard and fast.
KT 90
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Flounder Dorfman said:

I think Zeke leaving worked out just fine. Lots of other examples I would use over him.

As for Montgomery, if we do re-sign him, I don't understand the signing of Mahle. Actually, not matter what happens with Montgomery, I don't understand the Mahle signing. The Rangers are paying a very large amount of money to three starting pitchers that won't pitch before the all-star break. I don't get it.

I agree totally with the bolded part. Maybe they thought they were getting a steal on Mahle and felt they had to do it. We'll see how it works out.

I do hope we can get Montgomery back on board, but the numbers and years have to work out. If Boras is really pushing for 6 years, it starts to make it more dicey. I think 5 years is reasonable. Who is even the competition for Montgomery now? The Yankees moved on and acquired other targets. I remember seeing not long ago that the Red Sox weren't going to add more payroll (and even try to cut some more?). I am sure there are other teams, but those two had been names that were mentioned to be interested in Montgomery.
Grapesoda2525
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DallasAg 94
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The only thing I can figure out with Mahle is, that he is a cheap insurance policy for 2024 that keeps us from looking at SP at the trade deadline. The 2025 cost increased his CBT which kinda throws a wrench. $11-13M is the cost of an Innings eating SP.

Mahle is due $5.5M for 2024 and $16.5M for 2025. His TJ was in May. Trade deadline is July 30. So, we'll see him for 2months+. If we don't need him, we might trade him. Even though his CBT projects now to be $11M in 2024, if we trade him, I would think the real number is lower than $5.5M... and we could get something in trade for him.
strike319
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23 Semien 2B
22 Perez SP
21 Gallo B
20 Lynn SP
19 Minor SP
18 Leclerc RP
17 Claudio RP
16 Dyson RP
15 Choo B
14 Martin B
13 Darvish SP
12 Beltre 3B
11 Wilson SP
10 Hamilton OF
09 Cruz DH
08 Bradley OF
07 Benoit RP
06 Otsuka RP
05 Teixeira 1B
04 Cordero RP
03 Shouse RP
02 Rodriguez SS
01 Zimmerman RP
00 Rogers SP
99 Pudge C
98 Gonzalez OF

I went with fangraphs WAR and went 50/50 for pitchers, came out to 110.7 total WAR. Wonder what tweaks would improve this team?
TheNotoriousP.I.P.
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AG
C - 1999 Pudge (MVP Year, 125 OPS+, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger)
1B - 2005 Mark Teixeira (144 OPS+, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, 7th in MVP voting)
2B - 2009 Ian Kinsler (107 OPS+, 26th in MVP voting, 30 HR 30 Steal season and the most RBIs he had as a Ranger)
3B - 2012 Adrian Beltre (139 OPS+, 3rd in MVP voting, Gold Glove)
SS - 2003 Alex Rodriguez (MVP Year, 147 OPS+, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger)
LF - 2000 Rusty Greer (111 OPS+ and fan favorite)
CF - 2010 Josh Hamilton (MVP Year, 170 OPS+, Silver Slugger)
RF - 1998 Juan Gonzalez (MVP Year, 149 OPS+, Silver Slugger)
DH - 2023 Corey Seager (170 OPS+, 2nd in MVP voting, Silver Slugger)
BN - 2001 Rafael Palmeiro (141 OPS+, 47 bombs, more walks than strikeouts, 14th in MVP voting)
BN - 2006 Michael Young (108 OPS+, 30th in MVP voting, not his best year but needed to get him in the team somehow)
BN - 2021 Adolis Garcia (100 OPS+, 4th in ROY voting)
BN - 2017 Elvis Andrus (105 OPS+, 20 HR 25 SB Season, Highest RBI/HR/2B/H of career)
BN - 2016 Robinson Chirinos (105 OPS+)

SP - 2013 Yu Darvish (145 ERA+, 2nd in CY voting, 22nd in MVP voting)
SP - 2011 CJ Wilson (150 ERA+, 6th in CY voting)
SP - 2019 Mike Minor (144 ERA+, 8th in CY voting)
SP - 2020 Lance Lynn (135 ERA+, 6th in CY voting)
SP - 2002 Kenny Rogers (123 ERA+, Gold Glove)
Longman - 2015 Yovani Gallardo (124 ERA+)
Longman - 2022 Martin Perez (137 ERA+, All Star)
RP - 2007 Joaquin Benoit (160 ERA+)
RP - 2014 Neftali Feliz (202 ERA+, albeit he only pitched 31 innings)
RP - 2008 Frank Francisco (143 ERA+)
RP - 2018 Jose Leclerc (305 ERA+)
CL - 2004 Francisco Cordero (236 ERA+ and 49 saves, 24th in MVP voting as a reliever)

Your infield has 4 gold glovers in it and 2 MVPs. 2 MVPs in your outfield plus MVP runner up at DH. Bench covers all positions though definitely a man short in the outfield. Bonafide Ace at the top of your rotation with several Cy Young candidates behind him. Rusty Greer is starting and Kenny Rogers in a Gold Glove year rounds out your rotation. What more could you ask for?
fc2112
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On a different note - see how easy this is?

DallasAg 94
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Easy doesn't advantage the chosen- LAD, NYY, STL, BOS, ATL.
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