EastCoastAgNc said:
Astros 2024 top 20 prospects
(Note: Seasonal ages as of July 1, 2024. Scouting grades are on the traditional 20-80 or 2-8 scouting scale.)
1. Jacob Melton, OF (Just missed)
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 210 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Seasonal age in 2024: 23
The Astros' second-round pick in 2022, Melton was a late cut from the top 100, primarily because his approach isn't good enough yet to get him there, although he has some plus tools including his raw power and his defense in center, which gives him a great floor as an extra outfielder. He's overly aggressive at the plate and sells out for power, even though he has great bat speed and barrel control, so he should see some power come naturally as a function of the hard contact he's making averaging 90 mph and topping out at 112.
He's had some advantages in the minors to boost his stat line, with 85 percent of his plate appearances last year coming against right-handed pitching (as in, with the platoon advantage), while he played most of the year in High-A Asheville, a terrific hitter's park, and hit just .220/.318/.392 on the road. He needs to cut down on his chase rate and just make better swing decisions overall. He's got 30-30 upside with plus defense in center if he can show a better approach at the plate.
2. Luis Baez, OF
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Seasonal age in 2024: 20
Baez has, to use the technical term, some big whack, hitting balls well over 110 mph as a teenager and hitting seven homers in 17 games in the Florida Complex League enough to finish sixth in the FCL even though he played about a third of the season. He's going to end up in right field, with a cannon of an arm to stay there, so it's going to come down to how much he hits. He hunts fastballs but his stint in Low A to finish the year showed his pitch recognition is well behind the rest of his game. He has 30-homer upside, and if he gets to High-A Asheville at some point this year he might put up some ridiculous power numbers.
3. Zach Dezenzo, 3B
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 220 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Seasonal age in 2024: 24
Dezenzo's an above-average third baseman who's such a good athlete he might be able to handle center, with plus speed and good instincts all around. At the plate, he's caught in between hitting for average and hitting for power; to get to more than average pop he has to sell out, and it's going to pull his contact rate down, which you started to see even in Double A (28.5 percent K rate). The Ohio State product was old for High A last year at 23, so his huge production in hitter-friendly Asheville is suspect, but he could be a .280-300, 15-homer guy at third base, or maybe a .240ish 20+ homer guy who strikes out too much, with the positional versatility to move around and help a club even if he's not a regular at one position.
4. Spencer Arrighetti, RHP
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 186 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Seasonal age in 2024: 24
Arrighetti's got a low-90s fastball that plays up due to huge extension and a low release point, pairing it with an above-average breaking ball. He added a cutter just last year to try to reduce his platoon split which did happen, actually, so that's a good sign for him to stick as a starter. It's more control than command, but enough to think he's a back-end starter, with a little chance of more as the Astros help him tinker with his pitch mix.
5. Brice Matthews, SS
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 190 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Seasonal age in 2024: 22
Matthews was Houston's first-round pick last July, a shortstop at Nebraska who's a plus runner and could move to centerfield if he can't stick at short. He was a dead-pull hitter in college who was vulnerable to fastballs up, but if he doesn't swing like that he may not have even average power. He's an excellent athlete with quick-twitch actions that might make him a plus defender at short with reps and coaching, although sometimes really athletic guys like him struggle with consistency and move to center (think Billy Hamilton, who was as fast as it gets). I had him as a second-round talent because of the concerns over his propensity to whiff on stuff even in the zone and some questions about his position, both of which I think still apply.
6. Joey Loperfido, OF
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 220 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Seasonal age in 2024: 25
After signing in 2021, Loperfido went to work, gaining close to 30 pounds of good weight, while the Astros helped him improve his swing decisions from 2022 to 2023 so he could get to more of that power in games. He's played all over the field but his best chance for defensive and positional value is in center, as he's a 55 runner with excellent instincts. If he has to move to a corner outfield spot, where he's played some in the minors, the bat might not make him more than a fringy regular, although he'd be superb as a fourth outfielder who can also back up at second and first. He turns 25 in May, so we shouldn't expect any further physical maturation, but he's also pretty much ready for the majors and at the worst he should be on Houston's bench by midyear.
7. Will Wagner, IF
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 210 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Seasonal age in 2024: 25
Billy Wagner's son got off to a strong start in 2023, hurt his wrist, missed two months, and kept right on raking when he returned, finishing the year with a 15-for-26 week in Triple A. He can hit in both senses he makes a ton of contact, rarely whiffing or chasing, and he hits the ball hard enough to be a high-average/high-doubles guy. It's probably 12-15 homers at best, and that presents a challenge as he doesn't have a clear position maybe third, maybe second, but maybe first as his lateral mobility (and thus range) isn't great. Wagner may not produce big homer totals or otherwise eye-popping numbers but I buy the hit tool and he might end up getting everyday playing time for someone, even if it's not Houston.
8. Jose Fleury, RHP
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 185 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Seasonal age in 2024: 22
Signed for just a $10,000 bonus in 2021 because he was already 19, Fleury has a 70 changeup that helped him finish fourth in the Astros' system in strikeouts despite throwing just 98 innings on the season. He averages 91 mph on his fastball but it has huge late hop to it, while his slider is a 55 and he has a curveball for good measure. He's not that physical and may only gain a modicum of additional velocity, so it's possible he'll have to live with a 45 fastball and a bunch of pluses which will mean improving his control and his command. Fleury does have weapons and a good idea of how to use them, so for now he still looks like a starter.
9. Zach Cole, OF
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 190 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Seasonal age in 2024: 23
Cole is a plus defender in center with plus power, maybe 70 defense with a 70 arm and 60 thump, so if he can shorten up his swing for more contact, he's got a chance to be a 55 or 60 regular. There's a lot of whiff here, on all pitch types, with sky-high rates on offspeed stuff and even on fastballs in the zone. He benefited bigly from playing in Asheville in the second half he slugged .625 at home for the Tourists, but playing on the road gave him trouble and he slugged .346. It's all potential here, with even modest improvements at the plate leading to big increases in his odds of being a valuable big leaguer.
10. Colin Barber, OF
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 200 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Seasonal age in 2024: 23
Barber played 79 games last year, which was a career-high for the oft-injured outfielder, drafted in the fourth round in 2019 out of a California high school. He's a good athlete with a pretty left-handed swing that's producing more power when he plays. In the last three years, he's missed significant time with a hip flexor injury (2023), an ankle injury (2022), and a shoulder injury that required surgery (2021). I think he's a fourth outfielder if he can play enough to prove it, with a solid mix of patience, maybe 55 power, some feel to hit, and the ability to back up center on a temporary basis."